Bitcoin price has currently increased overnight. For a long time, the price of Bitcoin was between 20k and 22k, from where the price has increased and now it has touched 27k. I can roughly predict that Bitcoin price will touch 30 in March. Because there is good news in the future of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Halving is waiting ahead. According to the cycle, Bitcoin grows exponentially every three to four years.
I am always skeptical and cautious when there is a pump, however, it also appears that there is more spot buying of bitcoin than buying bitcoin with leverage. The price has pumped to touch $28k but the open interest today is presently still lower than the open interest on November, 2022. This implies that it is not leverage pumping bitcoin and it might also imply that the next dump might not have as much volatility.
I just had a look at the
open interest chart from LookIntoBitcoin. It doesn't show much of a downtrend since June last year, but more so sideways as well as rising considerably in the past week to reach close to October/November highs.
That said, price is quite a bit higher than back then, while the open interest remains similar. I guess to me it looks like there isn't "too much" open interest, but I wouldn't say it's very low anymore either.
The price has risen so much now we are reaching the lows of 2021 which means alot of volume in this area or near 29k. For whatever reasons BTC felt able to rise so much, we are likely to see selling appear to match the increased volume at this higher price.
2 day average has underpinned the lows on this rally, thats 27k but BTC can fall back as far as 25k and still be trending upwards on a weekly basis I think.
Am also waiting for an increase in volume to see where price goes next, as since the break above $25K volume has generally been decreasing, as opposed to increasing as you'd generally expect when prices breaks out above a long-term resistance level. I also agree that price can pull-back to around $25K and remain bullish, as was previous break out level as well as near the 200 WMA that's rising bullish still.
There is otherwise some bearish divergence on 4hr and Daily time-frame, similar to previous rejection around $25K, so am thinking a pull-back to support is likely now we are close to previous support level. However there remains the bullish case that last week was the highes gain at 26% since April 2019, so bears may struggle to push prices back down to $25K in the near term.