Topic: The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ? (Read 854 times)

It is more correct to say that it was an economy perfectly integrated into the Western market and relations with the global West. The West provided investment, technology, markets, that is, everything that was necessary for the development of the Chinese economy. We should not forget that China's economy is purely export-oriented, which means that it depends on external markets for consumption, as well as on investment and technology, which are the three areas that China itself cannot organize or develop.

As for the fact that “other countries will suffer” is debatable. Let me explain:
Those countries that are caught on the hook of “Chinese investment” will suffer, study the example of Sri Lanka to understand what it is and what problems it creates.
Other countries will not suffer, moreover, it may even be beneficial - to compensate for the reduced supply of goods produced in China, the local market will develop its own production.

China use to have one of the best economy and now things are looking different and if the economy of China is affected then every other things in the global economy will be affected because most of things that are produced from China will be reduced and their will be massive lost when the demand is low and since other people's economy is already affected then they are finding it very hard to increase demand because if their are no people to buy.

And the issue of unemployment is eating up everywhere and with the kind of population that China have they need to put everyone into consideration and that is why even the birth rate was increasing they looked for a solution to actually reduce the way the birth rate is actually increasing because if it continues that were is the job to give to the future ones that are coming.

And the reason why other countries will be affected is that China is one of the biggest countries with the largest economy even when it comes to technology and other things they are leading and they do business with a lot of countries and that is the main reason that it will affect the world economy.

Pretty soon we'll also see a response to the “China is self-sufficient and produces everything internally” narrative
As it turns out the “world's factory” is dependent on so many external suppliers when it comes to real high tech...


The US has ordered Taiwanese company TSMC to stop supplying advanced chips to China from Monday. The chipsin question are those used in AI applications (Reuters).
https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-ordered-tsmc-halt-shipments-china-chips-used-ai-applications-source-says-2024-11-10/
According to the source, the U.S. Department of Commerce sent a letter to TSMC. It says it will impose export restrictions on certain complex chips with a process technology of 7 nanometers or more, intended for China, which are used in artificial intelligence (AI) gas pedals and graphics processing units (GPUs).
The U.S. order, which is being reported for the first time, comes just weeks after TSMC notified the Commerce Department that one of its chips was found in a Huawei AI processor. Research firm Tech Insight reportedly took the product apart, viying the TSMC chip and an apparent export control violation.
Reuters writes that Huawei is on the U.S. trade restriction list, which requires suppliers to obtain licenses for any of the company's goods or technology. As such, any license that could help Huawei's AI efforts will likely be rejected.
According to a Reuters source, as a result of the letter, TSMC has notified affected customers to suspend chip shipments starting Monday. The U.S. Commerce Department declined to comment....

We can long beautifully describe the power of the Chinese economy, but....

According to the results of August, all key indicators of the Chinese economy disappointed investors who expected more positive figures. Fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate further aggravation of problems.
Industrial production grew by the lowest since March 4.5 percent in annualized terms (in July - 5.1 percent), while experts expected growth of 4.7 percent. The agro-industrial complex and ferrous metallurgy sagged strongly.
Against this background, unemployment rose to the maximum since February this year 5.3 percent (July - 5.2 percent, June - 5 percent). Fixed asset investment growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.4 percent, with real estate repeating July's result of minus 10.2 percent.
Retail sales showed a result of plus 2.1 percent against July data of 2.7 percent and forecast of 2.6 percent. Thus, the dynamics of the main components that make up the national GDP suggests the possibility of failure to fulfill the growth targets of five percent by the end of the year without additional support measures from the authorities.
Experts do not see any obvious opportunities for China to quickly improve its business. First of all, this is hindered by the ongoing capital outflow, which cannot be slowed down either through promises or regulatory policy. No matter how much the Chinese government tries to make a “pretty face” and draw beautiful indicators, it does not succeed in hiding the reality. It seems to be time to withdraw the rest of your capital from China, as it is possible that your money may be expropriated by China.....

It seems that the Chinese leadership continues to stick to the line of “show numbers in the economy”, as for example was the case with the real estate market where they lent, built, demolished what was built and repeated this cycle to inflate “beautiful” indicators of economic growth... And it seems that now it is a continuation of the same useless game, instead of finding solutions to real problems - among which is the breakdown of relations with Western markets, and inadequate games in the next “great empire” ...

The only thing which starts to change a economic outcome is the American way of hand out to the only group which fires up an economy.
The consumer.

Unfortunately the Chinese similar to other leaderships concentrate on the ones who appear in the reports: Investors.   
The issue in China, as seen from the outside, is the group of people who where promised study hard and get a good well payed job. Something the US screwed up due to their student loans. The countries youth does not wish to eat pain

To answer your question, the increase leads to more debt on State level, no issue.
Should the government panic, Taiwan is their exit to that.

China is trying its last-ditch effort to save the economy... And the methods can hardly be called “saving”, it is more like “postponing the problem”, or postponing the problem to a future period.

“China is considering next week approving the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of additional debt over the next few years to revive its fragile economy, Reuters reports"

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/reaction-reuters-report-chinas-stimulus-plans-2024-10-29/

What do you think - what can the increase in government debt lead to, against the backdrop of huge corporate debt of Chinese companies, and huge debts of Chinese households ?

Market news are as refreshing as always:
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi

    Chinese equities trail global ones for a fourth year running
    CSI 300 Index is near the lowest level since early 2019

The article is from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/china-s-6-5-trillion-stock-rout-worsens-economic-peril-for-xi
You wish to read it without paywall, click here:  https://archive.ph/jfoJQ

Chinese statistics are the new meme, apparently Perfect example : official statement - “gold reserves increased by 6.3 billion dollars”. The average person thinks that China bought 6.3 billion dollars in gold reserves. But the reality is as follows: as there were 72.8 million ounces in the reserves, so it remained. The only thing is that the value of the existing reserves has increased from $176.67 billion to $182.98 billion, which exactly corresponds to the increase in the price of gold on the world market in recent months. At the same time, when the price of gold goes down, do you think that the Chinese Ministry of Finance will say that our “gold reserves have fallen”? No, we will never hear that

I think the decline in China's economy will significantly affect the global economy and china's social economy and landscape leading to a major risks in business,market and major areas too.
Imagine the decline in the China economy has caused a high Chance of unemployment in the society and people unable to meet up to standards.This continuous decline is what I don't get because it's becoming so alarming and fustrating and neighbouring countries are being affected by this effects as well but with time I believe they can scale through this a whole lot if they can make some certain adjustment in the economy or need help from neighbouring countries too.

Most are not all. The biggest issue is that we cannot generalize people's behavior.
In regards to The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ?  
It is getting worse. Most leftist and fascism regimes like to hide data. In that tradition China is not falling behind. 
Especially when time looks kinda bad it seems, Those regimes do not see data as a way to create trust, trust is the most important money creator.
 
https://archive.ph/dI8Zz
The original article is here https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/05/the-chinese-authorities-are-concealing-the-state-of-the-economy

 

1. China is a huge manufacturing industry, tou can't argue with that.  But ... you can, for example, read this analysis: https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/juergen-matthes-simon-gerards-iglesias-china-kann-nicht-ohne-den-westen-1.html

2.  I agree that most people do not know how to manage money ... But whose problem is that ? Banks or stupid people ?

You have to take note that while China is the number 1 exporter in the world, they're also the number 2 importer. While their exports are in trillions, their imports are also in trillions. China actually imports electronics, petroleum, iron ore, and so on. But, overall, the world is more dependent on China than them on the world.


This is the age of neocolonialism. Language and culture don't anymore matter that much. It is not even about conquest anymore. China doesn't have to send its military to control other countries. It is just enough for them to trap other countries with debts. It is enough for China to make other countries subservient to them by simply being their dominant trade partner. China gains control over other countries by simply granting them huge loans to finance their basic services projects and basic infrastructure.

These seemingly friendly and charitable acts of goodwill are enough for China to have other countries by their throat.

I think that a war will just do away with the technological parts of Taiwan. That already would turn tables with the west whose trying to throttle China technologically. 

Another matter is investment, already there come less info out of China as the Economist says:

https://archive.ph/afheC
Originally here it is published: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/09/05/bad-information-is-a-grave-threat-to-chinas-economy

Less information, trouble at home is a perfects storm. 

Not everyone depends on imports from China directly though. Yes China depends on exports, but other nations could import from somewhere that is not China, maybe it would be lower quality, maybe it would be higher price, maybe it will take longer on shipping, we really don't know what will happen but we know one thing, which is the fact that it is going to be not China if they just don't want to deal with China. In which case China would have a very hard time selling anything, not their own products, not manufacture for other companies, everything will be hard.

Just imagine Europe and USA puts a huge tariff on anything there, suddenly we will see it is not worth it to get from China and that will cause all companies and people to not pay for that much for Chinese products. It's all political, China has to get along well with west if they want to keep being rich, the moment they do something wrong, like maybe a Taiwan issue, then suddenly all of west will turn on China very easily.

On what western high technology does China depend? Also isn't this a myth anymore that Chinese aren't creatives? Nowadays they invent and create many good things as I have heard.

The majority of the population is not smart, they are lazy also and love easy money, so that's why I agree with the statement that an easy loan is not a good thing.

Other countries that depend on imports (exports from China), what do they produce? I can't understand why I always hear that China depends on export. Almost everything I own is made in China, so what do other countries create that makes China more dependent on them than them on China?

I think that China won't be able to gain control of every country in the world because their culture and language is very different. It was easy and possible for Britain to gain control because their language is still near to our languages. I'm far from Britain but when it comes to grammar, the way we make sentences and etc, there are similarities. I would even say that English is one of the easiest language while Chinese is one of the hardest language. Even if China conquers the whole world, it would require a new generation to make people speak Chinese.

It definitely is a problem but I don't think it is as big a problem as it was made to be in the mainstream media. We have to see though.

It depends on who's trying.
For example US or EU will not be able to do that in a million years. Decades of bad economic decisions and capitalism has mostly killed their production capabilities. This is why a lot of Western companies from Apple to VW can not even exist without China.
If they go against China, they will suffer more themselves.

However, there are other serious competitors capable of doing what China does. For example India. They have the population, the cheap work force, and they have been moving in that direction. Their GDP growth has been big and it is getting closer to be 9% annually. Additionally India is in a way absorbing the capital that is fleeing Europe as Europe continues getting deindustrialized.

Well, there's a good reason why many countries import from China. It's because Chinese companies know how to mass produce things at a bare minimum cost. Chinese governments are friendly to the businesses and their policies are flexible which allows them to produce cheaper. Things are changing but at a very slow pace.

The Chinese economy is at risk due to their real estate sector. Their exports are still strong and in many cases have no competition. If the Chinese economy goes down, they will be able to produce the goods even cheaper because the manpower will become cheaper.

It's not easy to dethrone China from the current position.

That is an excellent point that people always forget when they get lost in the mainstream media nonsense. This becomes more palpable when apart from the size of their imports from China you also check out the trade deficits different countries have with China (that is when what they import from China is more than what they export to China). For example US itself has been facing $300-$400 billion deficit which means US is that much more dependent on China than China is on US.

China is indeed interesting, but not necessarily in the positive sense. Anyway, if China, the third largest country in the world and the most populous in many decades, is so dependent on export, then perhaps other countries are dependent on imports.

But China producing almost everything doesn't mean China produces everything.

China wants to gain control of Taiwan. China wants to gain control of every country in the world. And they use all means necessary to do that. It's a combination of bullying, debt traps, friendly gestures, grants, trade offers, and whatnot.

But the rule has always been that China can't be trusted. I'm not saying the US can be trusted though.

1. Plans to invade Taiwan have several reasons. One of them is really technological, as China itself has problems with technology and its dependence on Western high technology. But the military way is to lose the manufacturing base, equipment and much more. The second reason is political, or more precisely, the classic solution of internal problems and tensions through a “small victorious war”. But... China's hopes for its “tame dog” Russia, which promised to set an example of how one can spit on international rules, obligations and lack of impunity, failed in 2022. China's expectations of russia and its terrorist adventure to “take Kiev in 3 days” have failed. Moreover, this “experiment” gave the opposite result - strengthening of NATO, military-industrial complex of NATO countries, and development of new principles of deterrence and “forcing to kindness” the countries of terrorists and international criminals.
2. Loans are a tool. Like for example a knife, a lighter and so on. And if a person is a fool, he will also suffer from its use
In simplified terms: credit in the hands of a smart person is, for example, building or developing a business. In the hands of a fool it means poverty and debts. As they say - if you don't know how to use it, don't touch it

China is a very interesting country and the way we manufacture in China and made China dependent on export, is even more interesting. Btw I don't understand why it's always China that's dependent on export and production while Western countries depend on what? If China produces almost everything, then how are western countries going to get very important techs like smartphones, computer parts and etc? China also wants to gain control on Taiwan where many other part of technics is manufactured. If Taiwan becomes part of China, then it means that China produces almost all of our smartphones, TVs, computers and etc...

You are right. A few years ago, it was very easy to get a loan in my country. Many people here work unofficially, don't pay taxes and when you would go to Bank, you had to describe your job, tell them your income and the bank would give you money according to that (btw your numbers had to be close to reality).
To be fair, the majority of the population of my country isn't smart and statistics prove that. Many people got their lives destroyed because of easy loans, so I agree with you, being able to get under debt easily is not a good thing.

The problem with China are all the misinformation that are spread, because the Chinese government are not very transparent, when it comes to the distribution of information. 

A lot of independent economists are making their own predictions and analysis, based on the little amount of information that are available. We know China are hiding a much bigger problem, but we do not know how bad it is, so we will probably only know when the sh1t hits the fan... and then it will be too late, because this will have a huge ripple affect all over the world. with China being one of the biggest economies on this planet. 

China’s economic future could go a few different ways. One option is that China adapts by focusing more on domestic innovation and technology, and building stronger trade relationships with other countries. This could help China find new areas of growth and keep developing, though possibly more slowly.

Another possibility is that China makes policy changes to fix current problems, like improving the business environment and attracting more foreign investment. There’s also the chance that China could increase government control over the economy, which might offer short-term stability but could affect long-term efficiency. Lastly, China might seek new trade partners and alliances outside the West to reduce reliance on Western markets and find new economic opportunities.

Being able to got under debt so easily is not as good a sign as you may think. It just shows that your economy is heading in a very dangerous path of becoming a debt-based economy which only has one eventual result: collapse as the debt piles on.

Not to mention that debt-based economy is a lot worse for Germany than it is for US because the US regime could successfully run a Ponzi scheme and export its inflation postponing the collapse, Germany cannot do any of that.

The idea of making stuff seems like the next stage because they realized the ydo not have to rely to anyone that way. If they continue with their old system and just made stuff for others then it wouldn't be good for them since it would mean the moment they take their manufacturing to another nation then China would collapse, and we are seeing the pains of that right now, because that already happened with some companies and that's why China did this.

These are a ll growing pains and I believe that we are going to see China be strong again. Remember, this is a nation that doesn't care about their citizens as much as they care about their national power, they would sacrifice people in sweatshops which they already did, they had to literally put suicide nets to their own factories, but that made them richer. When you say China is rich, do not think it's the normal people, many of the normal people are dirt poor and hungry, it's the party that is rich.

I think you are onto something here when you mentioned the democrats & Obamala because this is the exact traitorous soft policy on China what Trump is trying to abandon.

It is most likely a set of problems that gave this “result”.
It is also a “soft policy” with avoidance of tough measures towards violators of agreements and accepted rules of the game. And it started during the Obama era, when Washington decided to play “soft and fluffy”..... Unfortunately, mistakes in the past are paid for in the future.

China wasn’t so great 20 years ago and they didn’t become so great by on their own. The US helped them. I still find it weird. It was a profitable move for the short term but as everybody can see it now, it was a disastrous move for the long game.

The West I know aren’t really the short term players so this move contradicts with their history. Only the weak countries try to save their tomorrow by giving up on their distant future.

There are a few possibilities in this situation.

1- The west became dumb and weak
2- The traitors are in command
3- Both above are true as the traitors wouldn’t get in command if the society was smart and strong.

Because China is greater than The West, period.

China has full of hard worker and they push their limit, unlike Western countries that always looking for slow living aka work life balance, China don't have it because they adopt 996 working hour system.

As a country China is great, but as a worker The West is better.

Its only based on what I know and did some readings in articles too. The future of China's economic and geopolitical position is likely to turn into many potential directions depending on today's factors. For example, China could work on economic reforms, improve its relations with the West, and integrate itself again in the global economy by way of addressing the prevailing issues and making technological investments. Also, it might increase state control over the economy, limit economic liberalization, and focus inward; a strong structure of authoritarianism can be established while cooperation with the West markets is reduced. Again, China may try to strengthen its geopolitical strategies by reforming military or foreign policy so that all attention can be diverted from the domestic problems to this aspect while it maintains its global influence. Finally, long-term economic crises can increase volatility and domestic discontent that can lead to higher political and social instability.

A very subtle observation and nuance. Indeed - “contract manufacturing” is good, but not very effective. The added value there is not very large, against the background of its own full-fledged production.  But for others - it will not be profitable, and therefore Western companies are looking for other territories where it is possible to produce the necessary goods with a low markup, and a comfortable price for the customer.
If we return to cheap cars from China, their low price is also due to large state subsidies, i.e. artificial price reduction for higher competition. This is why barrier duties are imposed on Chinese cars, which make Chinese cars less competitive

That is not true.
About 40% of the products are made in China, in some countries it might be more. Most goods are made under western development.
And if left alone China would be bankrupt, If your country purely relies on exports, you do not have a sustainable economy. You have a dependent one.
Furthermore China lacks a Word Currency plus the mechanism  to send it around.

Most of the world runs on an antique banking system. The 1st World is a little more advanced in banking.
 
How hard is it in your country to open a bank account? To get a credit approved?
In Germany I went into a bank and received a small credit based on my idea.
To do the same in the country I choose to live in, it's about 6 weeks and a lot of paperwork.

That means you can't even get seed money from the local bank.

Technically speaking they are moving away from that and it is a good thing for the world. So, it would be wrong to say that China makes everything, there are still some things that China does, like some car companies have China as their distribution centre for Asia, and apple uses them and many other stuff like sneakers etc etc.

However, I would like to point out that even that's not true anymore and everyone is looking for other places, the reason is that China wants their own products and they do not want to make America's products and give it back to them, they want to build their own products and sell those. That has been the case for a very long time, like look at how cheap their EV cars right now, they are not competing with Tesla, they never wanted to, what they want is to make sure that all the bikes and cars that are electric were their own products that they sell to billions of people in their own country and in India and everywhere around, even going as west as some European nations which are not rich.

It's not a “one day” process. The U.S. has already started the process of returning some production facilities to the U.S. territory. Some production is already migrating to other countries.

Why doesn't everyone move production? First of all, not all of them had it, and there are many countries with economies that are not full cycle, and they have historically imported many goods. For such countries the supplier of imported goods will simply change.
Others are still watching the situation, hoping that China will choose a more adequate domestic and foreign policy, and there will be no need to move anywhere. But for such observers, I have bad news - today's Chinese government will not change its vector, because the economic situation in China is very bad, and it can be solved either by returning the economy to self-regulation, without state management and pressure, or by going to totalitarian rule with degradation of the economy to a minimum level, and the eternal “search for enemies” to explain why the situation is so bad. In my opinion, the Chinese government has chosen the second way, which means further deterioration of China's economy and a breakdown of relations with the developed world....

Everything that's made in China could be replaced by local production. That's true. But how probable is this thing to happen? Great efforts have been made by the US to try to bring back companies to the fold. They only achieved limited success, if indeed you can call it as such.

The truth is that no other country can replicate China. It is only the Chinese government that has hundreds of millions of slaves at their absolute disposal. Therefore, it is the only country that can mass produce anything at lightning speed. Perhaps our only chance is for this massive body of human automatons to finally wake up. It is slowly happening. They're beginning to make demands. China will cause its own demise.

Anyway, my iPhone is made in China, so is my laptop. The rest of the appliances at home, from rice cooker to electric iron to the television to the stove and others are also made in China. The materials that made the house itself like cement and steel are also produced by China. Hell, even our vegetables, fish, and even as basic as rice are imported from China. So, that's basically my entire existence. That's how critical our dependence on China is. I hope this isn't your situation.

I can dispute this statement as I believe it to be erroneous.  The fact is that although China is the World Factory of Everything, most of the goods produced by China are not CRITICAL goods. 90% of Chinese goods can either be discarded or replaced by financing and supporting local producers.
Can you list - what goods/technologies/services does China produce that are unique to the world economy and cannot be produced by other countries ? I see so far only options with rare earth metals and battery production.

Yeah, unfortunately, it's China that's indeed running the show now. And it's not hard to prove this. We only have to realize that everything is made, produced, assembled, manufactured in China from paper clips and erasers to the very materials that made the building in which we live. The world is dependent on China today so much so that if China stops making products, the world might go back to its primitive days. I, of course, am exaggerating but everybody knows the point.

Quote one should explain it.


You have to calculate that they do not play fair before you launch into an adventure.
They launched basically knowing what was to be expected.

Cisco didn't have a collapse, Cisco's sites, equipment and technology were simply seized in favor of the state. And I have my doubts that the directors of Cisco had information about such a move by the Chinese government. In fact, the government on the day when the “license to operate in China” was to be renewed, they were simply refused. And this case, as far as I know, was not taken into account in the contract as a situation when Cisco has the right to take and remove its equipment, because the contract provided for auto prolongation under the assurances of the Chinese government.  So this is a classic Sharikov* idea - “take from the capitalists and divide”.

Sharikov is the hero of Bulgakov's book “Dog's Heart”.
By the way - I highly recommend reading Bulgakov's book “Dog's Heart”, it perfectly describes the revolutionary changes and the coming to power of the lumpenized society. There is also a very good adaptation = movie, filmed during the collapse of the USSR (the country built by such Sharikovs) in 1988, perhaps there is a quality translation into your native language.

One consequence of a dying economy, and this has happened in the past with other state-nations as well, is the pursuit of other territories to exploit their natural resources and manpower for themselves, we're seeing this happen with China as they try to exert what little force they have against smaller countries like the Philippines, with the dispute between the West Philippine Sea as well as other oil reservoirs within the area being a large focal point of this issue, they also are trying to exert their force against countries which they don't even have business trying to invade in at the very least, like Indonesia and Malaysia for example.

So yeah, they're desperately trying to annex territories, but as long as efforts are being made to stave them off, they'll continue to bleed money and lose traction until they finally give out, by then, either a whimpering death or a massive nuclear war would commence, and we can only guess as to what would happen next.

I wouldn't call a 5.2 percent annual GDP growth(2023) a "decline". The level of 5-10% annual GDP growth might become a thing from the past for China, but the Chinese economy will keep growing with levels below 5% per year. The main reason is there is still lots of room for growth. China has over 1 billion people, that are living with a relatively low salaries. The Chinese economy will become less and less dependent on export and more focused on growing the domestic consumption. The housing bubble and big provincial debts are major problems, but they can be solved. I agree that the Communist Party is heading towards increased government control and less freedom for the business. This is a huge mistake, which might lead to a future decline.

If there was no court order for Evergrande to be liquidated, they won't do it and will do the same thing as what US does and that's to hide that they are having a declining economy. OP has the right assumption of what's next. IIRC, China has acquired a lot of shares from the US and UK during the pandemic period. They've invested heavily on those stocks as they think it was the right time to do it. It won't be surprising if they start to dump all of those stocks and shares to pump their economy while obviously going to have that declining moment for the said two giants.

I agree on the entitlement of opinion, each it's own.

That you cannot trust a communist is not that new.
Those tricks are not new either. There have even been warnings. Greed is what made Manager close their eyes and open their pockets.
Managers are paid for performance they are hardly ever punished.

What do you believe is just not mentioned, the grey zone, where CEO got told and said nothing, just to save face.  

Do you know anyone who was punished for selling out from the cisco debacle?

 

Everyone is entitled to their own view of a process.
But I have to correct your opinion a bit: at the initial stage, China guaranteed compliance with laws, rights of Western parent companies and investors' requirements, this fact is easy to check. The first “bells” started ringing after the “nationalization” of several high-tech companies. A “good” example would be the story of Cisco and Huawei. Cisco invested billions of dollars in the development of production in China - these are built factories, technologies, jobs. At a certain point, China, under cover of legislation, essentially took away these production facilities and transferred them to Huawei, which is under state control. I assume that the Chinese leadership realized perfectly well that telecommunications in the 21st century is one of the pillars of the digital economy, and decided to “gently” expropriate other people's assets. This was, in fact, China's first step to violate its commitments and the first example of breach of contract.

If we go back to Western companies, the main driver of the process of transferring production to China was tax optimization, which is also a normal and common process. This is what many people do. Now the U.S. is returning high-tech production to its territory, because it has become logical - China is violating treaties and agreed rules of the game, plus it is imposing restrictions on technology supplies to China, plus it is good for the U.S. economy - jobs and taxes

I beg to differ. Managers are not owners of a company, they benefit from the short term economical data.

An owner would not give up his development so readily to a country where you have little property protection, intellectual property that is.
The Western Manager Elite Sold out their economies, or made best use of elderly factory designs.

It's hard to believe that they did not know how China is protecting its own. 

It's not greed, it's pragmatism - everyone is trying to reduce the cost of goods and services. And one of the ways is to move production to countries with lower taxes or tax exemptions and/or to countries where the necessary personnel is available, but the level of wages in the country is noticeably lower.
Otherwise we will have to consider any of our steps to find the same product or service at a lower price as greed and avarice, although, in fact, this is an absolutely normal process

And there is always a way out - the world is not homogeneous and there are countries that can offer the same conditions that China was able to offer to Western companies and investors almost 40 years ago. I recommend you to pay attention to India, as a global substitute for China, as well as countries like Vietnam - which choose the Western vector and integration with the world economy.

Another question is what will happen to China's economy, which will lose its market and solvent population? Yes, China is now colonizing the African continent, but let's be honest - there is no large layer of consumers with European or American incomes, which means they can not buy high quality goods with high added value. And this means that China's production will again shift to the production of cheap, low quality goods, and as a consequence the economy's income will shrink dramatically... I'm sure you understand how economics works, and you understand where this is going.

Greed is a good motivator.
It turned out better for the World economy, trading chinese goods make up a huge part in the world's overall economy.

Labor cost in China is so cheap and they have lots of people who can work in manufacturing firm that's why the west pass the production on big manufacturing firms in that country. Its just to bad that for continuous doing those decisions they didn't notice that everyone will get affected if there's economic problems will happen to China. But since India and other asian countries became good destination to other manufacturing firms then I think the world could able to cope up with those losses they made if China will totally collapsed since they have other alternative countries where they can insert those businesses and make everything goes alive again.

For now this is the one makes China became more stronger but there are lots of rumors that this country is struggling. Although we can't verify the real situation since Chinese government is so evasive when discussing about the real situation happened in their country.

Unfortunately the west is inherently wrong, because they treat all others as adequate and honest partners. China is not the only example. But, uh. the West is working on mistakes, and doing “corrective work”. China has become a “global factory”, but it is still dependent on Western technology, money, markets. Now the West has started a systematic process of migration of production to neighboring countries (India looks like a potential leader here), the West is withdrawing investments, the West is restricting access to technology and science. And as you can see, even at the initial stage, the Chinese government is already starting to beg for “good relations”, because they live not by propaganda but by reality, and they understand perfectly well what this threatens China.

The only question is whether China will be smart enough and honorable enough to admit its mistakes and return to the civilized world, or it will become another rogue/aggressor country.

The West made a big mistake when they outsourced their production to China. Now the whole world depends on China. If China does well it is a problem because that means China will be the biggest economy. If China does poorly then it means the rest of the world will suffer from their problems.

You know what that means do you?

It means China is running the show now. Not the US.

In order to limit the discussion of delusional theories, please, to youbpooya87 , bring here the following, ARGUMENTED, and verifiable data:
1. the balance of import exports between the US-China (this will show whose economy is more dependent on whom)
2. indicate the balance of investment of the countries in each other
3. show where China will be able to supply its goods if it loses the western market, while maintaining high added value of goods (hint - the wallets of US consumers are much thicker than those of African consumers, for example).

and we will come back to reality and see if your fantasy has a place in reality

China was en route to become the #1 economy, surpassing the USA. Thankfully, that didn't happen and is now unlikely to happen. Honestly, I think the West is not being harsh enough with China, considering how China is behaving. The human rights situation there is terrible, especially when it comes to Uyghurs. Moreover, China is increasingly helping Russia out both softening the impact of Western sanctions and providing support for Russia's war against Ukraine. Considering that, unfortunately I believe that China is looking for further polarization and team-up of the world's worst countries that will help each other out and try to challenge the West.

The problem is that, like any totalitarian or semi-totalitarian state (government), China publishes only “correct” statistics, which will “shout” that ALL IS GOOD. Therefore, relying on China's official data is not a good way to really assess the situation. At the same time, there are a lot of secondary indicators that speak about systemic problems of the economy. 
Many people, for example, without understanding the situation and the role of China in the world economy, mistakenly consider it one of the foundations of the modern world economy. On the surface, it may look like this. But in reality, China's economy is dependent on the West, for example, consumer markets, technology, investment, and much more. As we all know by now, the Chinese government's attempt to impose its desires on the West has ended with investors leaving China at a rapid rate, production leaving, foreign exchange earnings shrinking, jobs shrinking, and access to scientific data and high quality Western education shrinking. Yes, I agree, the SIGNIFICANT negative manifestations in China's economy will not appear tomorrow, it is a matter of 3-5 years. But ... the process has already started, Xi Jinping-on has started, and he as the initiator of this problem, while he does not make steps to solve it, he only complicates the situation. Complicates the situation for China. China's unjustifiably inflated self-assessment of its influence on the world economy has played a bad trick on it ...

his threats against Taiwan certainly caused the USA to build chip plants in the USA
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/08/tech/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-investment/index.html
Biden to give Taiwan’s TSMC $6.6 billion to ramp up US chip production

intel and texas instruments to also build in the usa

from tom's hardware U.S. Semiconductor Renaissance: All the Upcoming Fabs
from Reuters:


Intel's $20 bln Ohio factory could become world's largest chip plant.


all because a moron in China seized power and broke the 8 year serve as leader tradition after which he threatened Taiwan.

So he single handedly fucked his whole country.

even a "decline" is still 3-5% growth

I see that as a direct indication for war preparation.
It is kind of an insurance for the relation USA -China.

If China's economy continues to decline global implications could be significant. It could lead to reduced demand for imports which would really affect trade partners & global supply chains. A slowdown could also impact commodity prices because China is a major consumer. Increased unemployment & social unrest within China might arise potentially leading to political instability. Financial markets could react negatively which would result in decreased investor confidence. A declining Chinese economy could disrupt global economic growth, shift geopolitical dynamics & necessitate adaptations in international trade relationships.

This type of thing happens to every nation, it is not really specific to China so there is nothing to worry about, it is not unexpected. If people assume that every nation could just grow without a limit and keep on growing forever then they have never studied history before, whereas in reality we are talking about something much more realistic because every nation drops.

They just need to make sure that they are not working for others, but working for themselves and push that more. They built their own car, their own phones, their own social media, basically everything of their own, and they just need to keep that going as much as possible. If they can continue to do that then they will not have any issues, because they will make much more money from that.

This is the inevitable outcome of Xi Jinping's way of doing politics. Before he cemented himself into power China was actually opening up and looking much more successful, they embraced the capitalist model albeit with restrictions. Since he has gained power though, lots of prior freedoms have evaporated and he is doing the usual authoritarian warmongering strategy of picking on Taiwan, closing up the economy in the process. He is trying to look strong by being confrontational and controlling, but in reality it scares off outside investment. Sure he is nurturing home grown talent, trying to do things like increasing car manufacturing exports, but this will be meant with claims of subsidization, abuse and blocking in the most profitable markets - because ultimately the CCP owns every company, it's a valid complaint.

If the Chinese economy falls apart, the next thing that would fall apart is the Western economy specially the US economy that heavily depends on both importing hundreds of billions of dollars of goods from China and also heavily depends on Chinese work force since lots of their production takes place in China.

On top of that we all know that China is one of the biggest bag-holders of the US debt. In case of any kind of economic hardship in China, they'll start liquidating those bonds to get money to help their economy. That dump would burn the US economy to the ground.

But is the Chinese economy in decline? I don't think so. Their growth might have slowed down due to COVID and the follow up conflicts in the world but Chinese economy unlike a lot of other economies is the healthiest because it depends on production (as opposed to US economy which is a debt based economy with production mostly dead). That is why it is still growing rapidly.

Most of China's neighbors don't rely on China as much as you'd think. India for example is in competition with China, "destabilization" would help them. Others like Afghanistan are too ruined to be affected by anything. Others like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, etc. don't really depend on China as much to be affected significantly.
That leaves Russia, which could potentially benefit significantly since it would tip the balance (of who depends on whom) in favor of Russia.

A lot of countries including US have been doing this over the past couple of years. Need I remind you how many of these companies US regime took to court? The biggest one was BlackRock. Wasn't that "curtailment of economic freedoms negatively affecting both the efficiency and quality of the economy" or is it just negative when China does it? LOL
I ask this because each time I've said the same exact things about Western economies you disagree and justify them and yet you use the same argument you rejected about China!

I read news of China's housing problems and other economic problems but when I look at the economic indicators, it doesn't look that bad. When I look at the indicators I see that it's exaggerated just as the economic problems of the US are exaggerated too. Don't get me wrong, I know there is a problem when you look at the monetary system you know it's a matter of time before something bad happens, but it's always reported as if the countries are crumbling.

Speaking of China, when you look at their GDP over the years you'll see that there is an increase. 2020 saw the lowest growth rate of 2% due to Covid obviously, but 2021 saw an 8% increase and it has been increasing ever since. In 2023 their GDP had a 5% increase. Now, all these considered, these are not bad numbers.
The same can be said about the inflation rate in China. The inflation rate is currently at 2% which is not that bad.
Per Capital income too has been growing (slowly) over the years and if the inflation rate is not too high and per capita income is growing that means people have more purchasing power.
The unemployment rate is at 5.2% as of July. It increased by 0.2% from the beginning of the year.
The Chinese Yuan is also relatively stable. After gaining on the dollar in 2023 to 6.78CHY it dropped to 7.20CHY this year and has maintained that range for a while now.

So yeah, I agree that all may not be well with the economy, but so is the rest of the world, but all things considered, I think they're doing okay.

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.

What happens next ?  I will assume this scenario:

1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.

The question is what's next? Realization and acceptance of the problem and correction of mistakes, ceasing to pretend to be the “second pole of the world”, establishment of relations with the West, refusal from dubious “friends”, reintegration into the world economy ? Or ? There may be a path of totalitarianism and isolation, militarization of politics to distract the population from pressing problems and getting the right to total control over people and management of private business ...

Question - what options for the development of events can you assume in connection with this situation?