Topic: The current BTC growth seems abnormal [Late Feb 2018] (Read 183 times)

The only problem is how further it will drop this month, before it recovers later this year..

This anomaly is in my prediction of the market in the New Year period. You can see the market better in the mid-2018 and will grow very strongly until the end of the year. You can keep track of these happenings from previous years, things are going on right now.

Oh god! Exit pump confirmed!! Price is heading down to $8000 now.

What a fucking crafty evil exit pump!! Those whales pumped price for over a month, with two big waves topping nearly $12000 to make everyone believe market is recovering and will soon reach new ATH. It broke the classic pattern of "bubble" and everyone was crying for moon.

Now finally truth is revealed. 3 year bear market ahead.

Remember that a lot of the movement from $14,000 to $6,000 was down to speculators. Korea was making noises about regulations, the French and Germans stated that they were worried about bitcoin and wanted it discussed at the G20 etc.

So speculators were shorting bitcoin, especially in the lead up to the US Senate Hearing on bitcoin.

That hearing was positive, the superpower had decided that bitcoin and cryptocurrency was a good thing. Some speculators bought. And those who were short closed their trades - and in order to close a short, you have to BUY. The combination sent bitcoin surging upwards. It had fallen too far because of excessive shorting, and all that has happened is that the shorts have unwound and we are where we should have been.

Good to see many people staying calm and realistic here, instead of those "moon" "Lambo" "get rich quick" guys who get mad when it doesn't grow more than 100% in 2 days and accuse any realistic idea to be "spreading FUD"...

Looks like bitcoin breaks any technical analysis, because there is major manipulation involved.

Let's see to how high and for how long the whales will keep pumping, before enough FOMO buy so whales can dump on the innocent poor guys. If bitcoin is pumped to $20000 in March I won't be surprised. I may want to buy it now with 50% of funds and ride this short wave.

In my opinion thats indicate bitcoin is start to become real gold in digital currencies. Why ? Because the value of every transaction is increased while number of transaction is smaller. It is because transaction fees is expensive so people using it only for big transaction and for micro transaction people start to use alt coin. There will be negative and positive effect for it.

People are either going to take one of two stances, they're either going to be bullish or bearish. You're going to be bearish and then pull your own data for it. Lets be real though, no one knows what this beast of a market is going to end up doing, no charter, no regular joe schmo is going to know which way the market is going to go.

The market will go up and then down, or down and then up. OR NOTHING

No one knows.

I agree that the btc price growth from the last year or so isn't so abnormal for btc , but when you look at a few years back it has been insane . But what you see now is hedgefunds and bankers getting in and using some simple tricks in an unregulated market. When you have money in this space it is to easy to make money.

BTC's growth stayed fairly sane (for crypto) until USD 10,000,- was broken, at which point the market went into mania. So while the growth from USD 10,000,- to USD 20,000,- was incredibly unhealthy, USD 10,000,- still seems like a fairly good starting point for future growth phases. Apparently the market agrees for now.

The BTC price had to bottom out somewhere, so naturally when what seemed to be the bottom was in -- ie. the market didn't fall any further beyond what was a critical level, since USD 6000,- proved to be a lower bound in November -- the market got more relaxed and people started buying in again. Question being whether this reversal is for real or just a huge bull trap.



1) Public interest and media coverage increases as Bitcoin's reaches new ATHs. Same with when a crash happens. No media outlet cares about Bitcoin moving sideways or slightly recovering.


2) Transaction count is currently down roughly 20% from July to October 2017 levels, active addresses are down roughly 15% from July to October 2017 levels. Naturally both are significantly down from December levels, but that was one crazy month and mostly an outlier. Neither implies that Bitcoin adoption is declining in a meaningful way.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

That is not to say that there weren't road blocks along the way. Just that actual backsteps concerning Bitcoin adoption -- for example Steam getting rid of Bitcoin payments -- are barely reflected in the transaction count. Transaction count appears to correlate stronger with major price movements rather than merchant adoption.


3) I'm not sure what transaction size implies. Could be whales conspiracing in market manipulations. Could be people taking the opportunity of low fees to move their stashes from legacy to SegWit addresses. I lean towards the latter.



Alt coins go up when Bitcoin is stable or slightly rises. When Bitcoin falls, alts fall. When Bitcoin makes strong upward movements, alts fall as well. During unstable times, people tend to move into Bitcoin over alts. We are definitely in unstable times.

Keep in mind that even promising alt coins can be vastly overvalued and the market rarely cares about good progress, unless there's an active pump going on.



I think it's the market searching for a new stable price point. Right now I expect the market to move sideways for a while, rather than moving strong in either direction.

I can't say I totally disagree on what you are saying. When bitcoin reached 20k USD during December last year, we all knew it was a speculative bubble and eventually come down. That growth was exponential and completely unexpected. Speculators rode the wave, made money and pulled out the funds at the right time pushing the price to the lowest level. Since then we have seen a continuous downtrend until recently the price started going up.

Apart from all factors you have mentioned, you forgot to mention about the bitcoin's dominance on the entire crypto market cap. It is a significant parameter we all should look at.

Last week, bitcoin's dominance was standing at around 35%, but currently it is standing at 39.6%. In a multi billion dollars market, gaining 4.6% is a significant increase. While the entire Cryptocurrency market cap didn't show any significant increase, we have to assume that investors are pulling funds from other cryptos and investing it back on bitcoin. Think logically! What else can be the reason for an increase of 4.6% in market dominance and simultaneous price increase! Food for thought!

I should agree and its always been happening that includes panic selling.. I believe that there is a big group behind this after the burst drop now its getting pumping.
I don't see any news that could help to increase the price back.. What i see here is Exit pump..
If they handle a large amount of bitcoin when the price was drop at $6k then they are slowly buying just to support the price to increase and leave it to other traders to pump the price until they hit their goal before they sell,. While they are holding a large amount of bitcoin they can sell and get profit that can cause panic selling. So they can buy low price of bitcoin again after that..
Its always happening and i think they are a large group or a rich man that could invest a large amount of bitcoin and sell if the price is high enough..
But for me it is normal movement of the price its just like the same as what happen from the past years ago,,

Then what kind of price behavior or movement you do consider it normal? I doubt that no one would able to know on how bitcoins price do tend to rise up and yes it do grows almost 100% in a short period of time inspite on being dumped or crashed its price back to 6k point but well its not really a surprising thing for me already and even to those who are in cryptoworld for quiet sometime.We should get used to it and inspite on minding about price movements it would be more worth of if you do mind on how to ride with the waves and making money out of it.

Seems to be exactly as expected

Unfortunatelly, I must agree. Even if I am bullish on longer term, latest growth is not healthy.

In early Feb many people expected a crash, because the insane growth in late 2017 was primarily due to speculation, wasn't sustainable, and hence a "bubble burst" would occur.

So BTC crashed to $6000 after a series of bad news, FUD etc. Seemed to be like a bubble burst for real.

But, the reversal from $6000 until now is already 100%. And the trend is still up, up... with this current growth rate BTC will hit $20000 again in early March, and $100000 around July.

If you look at the current state of BTC blockchain:
- number of transaction going down to November 2015 level,
- number of active address going down to early 2017 level,
- median transaction value going down to September 2017 level,
- only average transaction value is growing this month
And google trend showing search of "bitcoin" going down.

What do these indicate:
- Public interest in bitcoin is not growing, or even decreasing.
- Bitcoin adoption is declining, fewer people are using bitcoin.
- But a small number of people are making very large (and increasingly larger) transactions.

Despite less adoption, bitcoin is going to hit $12000

At the same time most altcoins are either going down or no growth. Yes shitcoins should go down when people start to learn, but even the promising ones with good progress updates recently are not growing. This is in contrary to previous trends, when bitcoin goes up, altcoins follow.

This seems abnormal. I think it's an exit pump, whales need to pump BTC to sell high. After that another crash will follow.

What do you think?