Author

Topic: The difficulty is now at a new all time high (Read 6528 times)

420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
October 01, 2012, 04:58:44 PM
#45
The difficulty will probably rise 7-15 times the current difficulty with first shipments.

what are they're estimated levels of how many units first shipped
newbie
Activity: 36
Merit: 0
The difficulty will probably rise 7-15 times the current difficulty with first shipments.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
September 27, 2012, 03:09:46 AM
#43
I think its going to spike hardcore from asics being distributed. Doubling by the 20th.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=704

Are you the sole agree? I'd bet the house on disagree

In fact, there's a better one with more cross belief (just pulled that phrase out of my ass)
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=709

Edit i see it uses aug 27 value, not so certain. Today's value, I dont think it will double from here in such a short time
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Its as easy as 0, 1, 1, 2, 3
September 27, 2012, 01:11:31 AM
#42
I think its going to spike hardcore from asics being distributed. Doubling by the 20th.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=704
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
September 27, 2012, 01:06:10 AM
#41
Well, looks like 3m+ is coming the next adjustment.... grr

no, hardly more than now: http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
September 21, 2012, 07:46:40 PM
#40
with winter around the corner i will probably be firing the rig back up to help keep the house warm.
Already getting cold here and it's been good to not have to stick the heating on  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
September 21, 2012, 06:35:59 PM
#39
Well, looks like 3m+ is coming the next adjustment.... grr
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
September 21, 2012, 05:22:12 PM
#38
with winter around the corner i will probably be firing the rig back up to help keep the house warm.

"the rig" ?
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
September 21, 2012, 01:36:04 PM
#37
with winter around the corner i will probably be firing the rig back up to help keep the house warm.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
September 20, 2012, 04:04:29 PM
#36
The last difficulty peak was around August 2011, below 2,000,000.

The difficulty is now 2,036,671, clearly exceeding that peak.

Thoughts ?

How I picture the rise of difficulty and how some miners must feel! http://imgur.com/rJMhw

I WISH it was ONLY 2m right now instead of this 2.8 and rising insanity.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1006
Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.
September 10, 2012, 11:12:36 PM
#35
The last difficulty peak was around August 2011, below 2,000,000.

The difficulty is now 2,036,671, clearly exceeding that peak.

Thoughts ?

How I picture the rise of difficulty and how some miners must feel! http://imgur.com/rJMhw

exactly my feeling!
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
September 10, 2012, 10:08:50 PM
#34
when's next difficulty change? sep 21?
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
September 10, 2012, 01:45:28 PM
#33
The last difficulty peak was around August 2011, below 2,000,000.

The difficulty is now 2,036,671, clearly exceeding that peak.

Thoughts ?

How I picture the rise of difficulty and how some miners must feel! http://imgur.com/rJMhw
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
September 04, 2012, 07:15:14 PM
#32
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.


Why do you feel the used GPU market will suddenly crash? There are a LOT more gamers out there than there are miners. I would be surprised if there was more than 1-4 people GPU mining in a given city of 100k or so. I could be wrong though, but i'd be surprised if I was.
If we assume that there's ~15Thash/s of GPU mining online currently (I suspect it's probably lower than that given how much hardware BFL and the other FPGA manufacturers have shipped) that would be:

~50,000 ATI 5830s
Or
~25,000 7970s
Or
~20,000 5970s

So it's not an inconsiderable amount of GPUs either way.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
September 04, 2012, 07:06:44 PM
#31
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.


Why do you feel the used GPU market will suddenly crash? There are a LOT more gamers out there than there are miners. I would be surprised if there was more than 1-4 people GPU mining in a given city of 100k or so. I could be wrong though, but i'd be surprised if I was.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
I'll take a 7970 new please. It's the best hedge for the near future uncertainty. 6 months down the road the landscape will have decided the GPU miners fate, and pretty much any path will be better for the owners of 7970 cards.

great point. wish i could upgrade now but would take some liquidity
sr. member
Activity: 272
Merit: 250
Cryptopreneur
I'll take a 7970 new please. It's the best hedge for the near future uncertainty. 6 months down the road the landscape will have decided the GPU miners fate, and pretty much any path will be better for the owners of 7970 cards.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
I really wanted 5970s but it scares the crap out of me to drop $300-400 on a card thats been abused most of its life.  I had some bad experiences with used 5870s, so i said screw it and got a pair of 7970s.  very happy with them and two years of warranty left :-)

I bought a 5970 off ebay used and it was defective. at least one of the gpus were.
thankfully the defect showed its ugly face before my return policy expired.
sent it back, got my money, and decided the high failure rate of these cards, based on research,
was a poor choice to make and I never bought another.

i bought 3 refurb cards, no problem with mine
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
I really wanted 5970s but it scares the crap out of me to drop $300-400 on a card thats been abused most of its life.  I had some bad experiences with used 5870s, so i said screw it and got a pair of 7970s.  very happy with them and two years of warranty left :-)

I bought a 5970 off ebay used and it was defective. at least one of the gpus were.
thankfully the defect showed its ugly face before my return policy expired.
sent it back, got my money, and decided the high failure rate of these cards, based on research,
was a poor choice to make and I never bought another.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..

radeon 7000's?

yes. a 7970 can do what? 550-700 mh/s depending on who you ask, what model, over clocking, etc...
So that is like bringing online two 5830s at once. Nothing to sneeze at really. Just multiply it by your guess
how many were bought by forum members and gamers who know about bitcoins... and you can consider it
a nice chunk of mining power.

Also every other gamer turned miner who had access to a 7xxx model worth mining some btc with.
Sure I know they are not the best card to mine with compared to older models but they are not slouches
either.

Every little bit adds up when people notice the price rises and wants in. Even if only .2 BTC per day.

*cough* 5970 is 740mhash easy. cheaper price
Until the VRMs explode 8 months later  Wink that's a consideration too

hey 8 months i should have got the money out of them back! what do you estimate my clock speeds and core/vrm temps for that?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..

radeon 7000's?

yes. a 7970 can do what? 550-700 mh/s depending on who you ask, what model, over clocking, etc...
So that is like bringing online two 5830s at once. Nothing to sneeze at really. Just multiply it by your guess
how many were bought by forum members and gamers who know about bitcoins... and you can consider it
a nice chunk of mining power.

Also every other gamer turned miner who had access to a 7xxx model worth mining some btc with.
Sure I know they are not the best card to mine with compared to older models but they are not slouches
either.

Every little bit adds up when people notice the price rises and wants in. Even if only .2 BTC per day.

*cough* 5970 is 740mhash easy. cheaper price
Until the VRMs explode 8 months later  Wink that's a consideration too
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..

radeon 7000's?

yes. a 7970 can do what? 550-700 mh/s depending on who you ask, what model, over clocking, etc...
So that is like bringing online two 5830s at once. Nothing to sneeze at really. Just multiply it by your guess
how many were bought by forum members and gamers who know about bitcoins... and you can consider it
a nice chunk of mining power.

Also every other gamer turned miner who had access to a 7xxx model worth mining some btc with.
Sure I know they are not the best card to mine with compared to older models but they are not slouches
either.

Every little bit adds up when people notice the price rises and wants in. Even if only .2 BTC per day.

*cough* 5970 is 740mhash easy. cheaper price

I knew a response like this was coming ;-)

We could go back and forth on how to get the most bang for your buck now days but lets not.
A lot of people are buying 7xxx series because they know a 300 dollar 5970 card will more then likely lose
it's value quicker then a 7970 will. Sure it is a trade of mh/s wise.. but I think the 7xxx series uses less power too.
So better to buy a card, make some profit, and still have a good chunk of its resale value left in 2013.

By then gamers will not want a card that can get smoked by a 6950 in gaming. Let alone a 7970 which smokes a 6950.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..

radeon 7000's?

yes. a 7970 can do what? 550-700 mh/s depending on who you ask, what model, over clocking, etc...
So that is like bringing online two 5830s at once. Nothing to sneeze at really. Just multiply it by your guess
how many were bought by forum members and gamers who know about bitcoins... and you can consider it
a nice chunk of mining power.

Also every other gamer turned miner who had access to a 7xxx model worth mining some btc with.
Sure I know they are not the best card to mine with compared to older models but they are not slouches
either.

Every little bit adds up when people notice the price rises and wants in. Even if only .2 BTC per day.

*cough* 5970 is 740mhash easy. cheaper price
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..

radeon 7000's?

yes. a 7970 can do what? 550-700 mh/s depending on who you ask, what model, over clocking, etc...
So that is like bringing online two 5830s at once. Nothing to sneeze at really. Just multiply it by your guess
how many were bought by forum members and gamers who know about bitcoins... and you can consider it
a nice chunk of mining power.

Also every other gamer turned miner who had access to a 7xxx model worth mining some btc with.
Sure I know they are not the best card to mine with compared to older models but they are not slouches
either.

Every little bit adds up when people notice the price rises and wants in. Even if only .2 BTC per day.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..

radeon 7000's?
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
Bfl finishing up their old orders would bring diff up. Newer radeon vid card series brought things up. Other fpga stuff coming online. Higher btc price added some old users back into mining with what they have. Etc..
sr. member
Activity: 373
Merit: 250
I doubt they're testing ASICs.

Many people have video cards, and there is a large growing interest in bitcoin, leading to more mining in times of high profitability.

Earlier miners or new miners have come into the scene as soon as it became profitable is the most likely explanation.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1001
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.

Unfortunately, the sharp BTC price increase has pretty much killed that hope, and everyone seems to be doing what Im doing: mining on their gpu's till the bitter end, even if it means selling the gpu's later at far lower prices.
That's the thing - I can always stick my 7970s on ebay later and be at a profit.
The people I feel a touch sorry for are those with mining FPGA clusters - people who've dropped $10000 on Ztex boards and the like which can't really be used for too much outside mining.

And in my country 5830s sell at about 160$ used, so I'm even profiting by buying used hardware and reselling.

which country

He's in Venezuela  Grin

I may be retiring there or somewhere in South America,good to know there's some Bitcoin folks there  Cool

Can't believe there can be 2-4 th/s added in vid cards & FPGA's in 2 months.I think someone is testing out ASIC's  Shocked

Now,who could it be Huh

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6v6fmb2kpE
     Grin   Cheesy   Grin   Cheesy   Cool
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.

Unfortunately, the sharp BTC price increase has pretty much killed that hope, and everyone seems to be doing what Im doing: mining on their gpu's till the bitter end, even if it means selling the gpu's later at far lower prices.
That's the thing - I can always stick my 7970s on ebay later and be at a profit.
The people I feel a touch sorry for are those with mining FPGA clusters - people who've dropped $10000 on Ztex boards and the like which can't really be used for too much outside mining.

And in my country 5830s sell at about 160$ used, so I'm even profiting by buying used hardware and reselling.

which country
hero member
Activity: 506
Merit: 500
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.

Unfortunately, the sharp BTC price increase has pretty much killed that hope, and everyone seems to be doing what Im doing: mining on their gpu's till the bitter end, even if it means selling the gpu's later at far lower prices.
That's the thing - I can always stick my 7970s on ebay later and be at a profit.
The people I feel a touch sorry for are those with mining FPGA clusters - people who've dropped $10000 on Ztex boards and the like which can't really be used for too much outside mining.

And in my country 5830s sell at about 160$ used, so I'm even profiting by buying used hardware and reselling.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.

Unfortunately, the sharp BTC price increase has pretty much killed that hope, and everyone seems to be doing what Im doing: mining on their gpu's till the bitter end, even if it means selling the gpu's later at far lower prices.
That's the thing - I can always stick my 7970s on ebay later and be at a profit.
The people I feel a touch sorry for are those with mining FPGA clusters - people who've dropped $10000 on Ztex boards and the like which can't really be used for too much outside mining.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I was hoping for a few good final months before ASICs arrived, because I expected people to ditch their GPU farms while they still can get a decent price for them. I mean, good luck selling your GPUs in november or whenever these asics hit.

Unfortunately, the sharp BTC price increase has pretty much killed that hope, and everyone seems to be doing what Im doing: mining on their gpu's till the bitter end, even if it means selling the gpu's later at far lower prices.
vip
Activity: 980
Merit: 1001
Current Blocks: 192840 | Current Difficulty: 2036671.0886933 | Next Difficulty At Block: 193535 | Next Difficulty In: 695 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 4 days, 13 hours, 39 minutes, and 20 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 2116395.25971438 | Estimated Percent Change: 3.91443524994

wow our network hash has gone up almost 4 percent since last increase?
yep
ppl are still starting mining on gpus, fpga that were ordered months ago are being delivered etc, I expect the trend to continue
and of course $10+ per coin makes a lot of ppl viable that werent at say $7 Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
We'll be over 2.1 million soon Smiley

Kind of suprised the difficulty isn't rising faster than it has been to be honest. We must be losing some gpu miners.

Agreed.  I feel like it should be skyrocketing, but I think a lot of people may be holding off on expanding their farm as they wait to see if the BFL asic really materializes.  Also, a lot of miners may have realized they could make more by selling their gear and putting the coin into a pirate pass-through if they are ok with the risk.
Why would GPU miners be shutting down?
Due to the price increase I'm getting paid more per megahash (in $ terms) than I was a month ago, or a month before that.
Therefore, my GPUs are more profitable than ever  Wink
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Current Blocks: 192840 | Current Difficulty: 2036671.0886933 | Next Difficulty At Block: 193535 | Next Difficulty In: 695 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 4 days, 13 hours, 39 minutes, and 20 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 2116395.25971438 | Estimated Percent Change: 3.91443524994

wow our network hash has gone up almost 4 percent since last increase?
vip
Activity: 980
Merit: 1001
Current Blocks: 192840 | Current Difficulty: 2036671.0886933 | Next Difficulty At Block: 193535 | Next Difficulty In: 695 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 4 days, 13 hours, 39 minutes, and 20 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 2116395.25971438 | Estimated Percent Change: 3.91443524994
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
When's the next difficulty change?
donator
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
We'll be over 2.1 million soon Smiley

Kind of suprised the difficulty isn't rising faster than it has been to be honest. We must be losing some gpu miners.

Agreed.  I feel like it should be skyrocketing, but I think a lot of people may be holding off on expanding their farm as they wait to see if the BFL asic really materializes.  Also, a lot of miners may have realized they could make more by selling their gear and putting the coin into a pirate pass-through if they are ok with the risk.
sr. member
Activity: 447
Merit: 250
We'll be over 2.1 million soon Smiley

Kind of suprised the difficulty isn't rising faster than it has been to be honest. We must be losing some gpu miners.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1001
Looks like it's time for me to look into FPGAs for present demands (as it looks like BFL won't be able to meet my needs due to really long pre-order list for the ASICs/plus their famous delays too) as well as look into suppliers of mining equipment (GPUs/FPGAs/ASICs) who are reputable (I'm sticking to UK suppliers for tax reasons plus legal protections if something goes wrong,like non delivery/faulty product).

I think I've reached the limit for my current equipment (as they can't be pushed any further on the MBP and PC with HD6950 under current conditions) so I'll have to think carefully where I thread from now on (either consider further expansion of mining capability or plan for a phased withdrawal if suppliers in UK are unable to meet my needs for equipment plus I can't trust overseas suppliers due to tax/buyer protection issues.In UK buying abroad means paying tax at customs to 'release' the shipment at customs and this can take time).

I'm also diversifying my portfolio for which crypto currencies to mine with (currently consists of BTC and LTC since SC is no longer meeting my needs-big delays in Microcash transition is putting me off further investment until things are on a more solid footing with SC/MK) so for now this'll help me in the short term.

Anyway thats,that for the strategy part. I do think that when more people get annoyed at very high difficulty,they'll simply drop out of mining (as it's unprofitable for them) and the difficulty will drop and cycle will repeat itself thus business as usual.

I'm afraid people are already dropping out while the difficulty is rising. I assume a much steeper increase of the network rate would have occurred otherwise. It may have an influence again in December when even gpu miners with free electricity may decide to drop out. Again, I doubt they will drop out for good but get specialized equipment as well.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Freelance videographer
Looks like it's time for me to look into FPGAs for present demands (as it looks like BFL won't be able to meet my needs due to really long pre-order list for the ASICs/plus their famous delays too) as well as look into suppliers of mining equipment (GPUs/FPGAs/ASICs) who are reputable (I'm sticking to UK suppliers for tax reasons plus legal protections if something goes wrong,like non delivery/faulty product).

I think I've reached the limit for my current equipment (as they can't be pushed any further on the MBP and PC with HD6950 under current conditions) so I'll have to think carefully where I thread from now on (either consider further expansion of mining capability or plan for a phased withdrawal if suppliers in UK are unable to meet my needs for equipment plus I can't trust overseas suppliers due to tax/buyer protection issues.In UK buying abroad means paying tax at customs to 'release' the shipment at customs and this can take time).

I'm also diversifying my portfolio for which crypto currencies to mine with (currently consists of BTC and LTC since SC is no longer meeting my needs-big delays in Microcash transition is putting me off further investment until things are on a more solid footing with SC/MK) so for now this'll help me in the short term.

Anyway thats,that for the strategy part. I do think that when more people get annoyed at very high difficulty,they'll simply drop out of mining (as it's unprofitable for them) and the difficulty will drop and cycle will repeat itself thus business as usual.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Batten up the hatches
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1000
The last difficulty peak was around August 2011, below 2,000,000.

The difficulty is now 2,036,671, clearly exceeding that peak.

Thoughts ?

uhhhh, more mining power?
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
Look at the price, its only going to go up more.
full member
Activity: 184
Merit: 100
Feel the coffee, be the coffee.
The last difficulty peak was around August 2011, below 2,000,000.

The difficulty is now 2,036,671, clearly exceeding that peak.

Thoughts ?
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