Topic: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription (Read 767 times)

For a year and nine months now, Putin’s Russia has been regularly sending its citizens to Ukraine for slaughter in order to destroy this state. But if at first they were sent to the war in Ukraine mainly from the far outskirts of the Russian Federation, now, thanks to the rapid destruction of “live meat,” they are now reaching the central regions of Russia. Moreover, information is leaking to the media about the colossal human losses in this war and the Russians are very concerned that they themselves could become this “temporary living meat”, and therefore their attitude towards the war began to change. If previously about 70 percent of Russians consistently supported the war, now this figure has dropped significantly. But nevertheless the war continues. Russia has already lost more than 330 thousand of its soldiers and the conveyor of death continues...
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that in November 2023, the Russian army was losing an average of 931 soldiers per day, the highest figure for the entire war. And the current assault on Avdeevka, which has been going on for almost two months, is the main reason for such a grandiose grinding down of the Russian Armed Forces.

First of all, it must be taken into account that Russia attacked Ukraine and is waging an aggressive unjust war on foreign territory. It is the duty of every citizen to defend his country, and not to participate in the attack on other neighboring states. Therefore, I believe that in this case it is quite logical to avoid mobilization for this war for the sake of Putin's imperial ambitions.

According to Ukraine, Russia has already lost only 237,680 of its military personnel killed in this war, who, with weapons in their hands, came to Ukrainian soil to kill their inhabitants. More than 320,000 people have been killed and missing in Ukraine, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, which is provided to Putin. The number of wounded is usually three times the number of those killed. That is, Russia has already lost more than a million of its able-bodied citizens. For what?

The number of military equipment losses by Russia, which, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, invaded Ukraine, is also impressive:
- 4107 tanks,
- 8026 armored vehicles,
- 315 aircraft,
- 310 helicopters,
- 4481 artillery systems,
- 683 MLRS,
- 425 air defense systems.
- 7044 tanks and other vehicles,
- 3820 drones,
- 666 special equipment,
- 18 ships and boats, etc.

Due to the failed war, which has already been going on for about a year and a half, and the imposed sanctions, the Russian economy is falling apart at a relatively fast pace. And many more generations of Russia will have to pay reparations to Ukraine for the destroyed cities and villages, destroyed infrastructure, killed and maimed its citizens. Many sensible residents of Russia see that there are no normal prospects for life in this country and leave it, if not forever, then for a long time ...

Universal conscription should be in all countries. Another thing is where and how it should take place and how long it will last. You cannot fully rely on a contract professional army alone.
In history, idiots like Putin often appear in Russia, who suddenly find themselves calling to conquer a neighboring state. What will happen if the professional army is defeated, and the rest of the men of the state that was attacked never held a weapon in their hands? Then the fall of such a state would be absolutely logical. No, all men of military age should always be ready to defend their country.

In today's war, if we talk about the aggressor country, Russia, it has created a lot of problems. In addition to the degradation and destruction of the economy, the loss of political weight in the world, the disclosure of the fake "powerful economy" and the "second army of the world", Russia also received an economic and social problem. Today, the following problems are actively manifesting themselves or will soon "declare themselves":
- A decrease in population growth, or rather, an increase in a decrease in population. At the beginning of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Statistics officially announced almost 1,000,000 annual population decreases, although until recently there was a "stable population growth".
- Apparently - "140 million people in Russia" is also a fake. Considering the recently discovered statistics (pensions, taxes, etc.), one can come to the conclusion that this is at best 80-90 million. Not 140 million. Another fake that is worth studying in detail.
- According to unofficial data, from 2 to 5 million left Russia, the most productive population. These are people with education, brains and money. They don't want to become disposable consumables for playing war as a crazy pathetic parody of the Fuhrer. Between a "great country" and a normal life, they choose the latter.
- Died and cripples after participating in the war in Ukraine. It is already officially known about more than 135,000 dead Russian terrorists on the territory of Ukraine. this means that there are approximately 300,000 more disabled from injuries. And this war has not ended yet, Russia has at least 2 more waves of mobilization ahead.

In total, we have: an irreversible fall in the possibilities of the economy due to a critical decrease in the able-bodied, productive population. Yes, there are still many millions of low-skilled, marginalized workers who will never be able to form the added value of goods and services. They will also not be able to consume enough goods and services due to low income levels, which freezes the economy. No money movement - no economy. Social degradation of the population - the death and escape of a million men of fertile age - who will be replaced? "Great leader", as suggested by some politicians in Russia, will become a donor for conception? By the way, this is not a joke, this real proposal was put forward by one of the deputies of the Federation Council
There is also a noticeable decline, even in rubles, in the income level of the mass population of Russia. And plus hidden inflation, which will soon break out. If Russia is lucky, it will turn into a huge North Korea. But this is a highly optimistic scenario

The negative economic effect from the decrease in the number of the working-age population of Russia due to the fact that people leave the country in order not to go to war, this is only one and not the biggest problem that awaits Russia because of the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has clearly miscalculated and cannot defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield. It seems that they have decided to wage war on the depletion of resources. But more than 50 states are helping the Ukrainians, and their potential far exceeds the Russian one. This will lead the Russian Federation to the inevitable disintegration into separate independent states. And this problem is much more global.

Rosstat published data on the departure of Russians abroad for the first half of 2022. In total, 8.5 million people left the country for various purposes, which is 25% more than from January to June 2021, when about 6.8 million Russians crossed the border to leave.

The war provoked two large waves of emigration from Russia. The exact number of those who left and did not return was not disclosed by the authorities. According to the minimum estimates of The Bell, more than 500 thousand people left their homeland.
In early spring, hundreds of thousands of people hurriedly left the country due to rumors of a possible border closure. The borders of power were left open, and many of those who left in the spring returned to the country, only to be on the run again seven months after the announcement of mobilization. In addition to the general panic and the buying up of air tickets that have risen in price at times, many kilometers of queues at land borders were added in the fall.

It is almost impossible to calculate exactly how many people have left the country since the end of February. This is recognized by both economists and demographers. The FSB monitors the number of departures from Russia, but it is impossible to draw conclusions from its data about how many people emigrated and where they moved. Firstly, one person can go on vacation to Turkey in the summer, return, and then fly to Kazakhstan on business - for the FSB, this will be two trips out of the country. Secondly, people can use countries as staging posts on their way to another point. Let's say someone flies from Moscow to Istanbul, and from there to Tbilisi. For Russian statistics, he will have gone to Turkey, not to Georgia.

  The media, citing sources familiar with Kremlin estimates, claim that approximately 700,000 people have left Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. According to demographer Igor Efremov, we are talking about 400-500 thousand people who left. In two waves of migration, about 100 thousand IT specialists left Russia and did not return - this is a total of about 10% of the employees of Russian IT companies, said Maksut Shadayev, head of the Ministry of Digital Development.

I think that in connection with the last very broad wave of mobilization and the preparation by Putin of a large offensive against Ukraine in February-March, and especially if such an offensive fails again, then there will be a noticeable increase in those fleeing the war from Russia.

Listen to Russians
You see, they are not against war. They are afraid to be called up, by order of the president and the authorities they have chosen and supported. This is the whole "Russian world". Cowardice, lies, meanness, cowardice.
Instead of raising a popular uprising in 2014 against the murder of citizens of another country and the annexation of their land, they cowardly sat at home, and decided that this would bypass them. Most of them were even proud of it. And now, many have begun to hysteria in general, that they have nothing to do with it, they want to live, they need to save themselves ... No - not by stopping the war, but ... cowardly to run away and do nothing. The problem is that in 5-10-15 years these people will again elect such a bastard to power, at first they will applaud how he deftly "took the land from the Ukrainians / Moldovans / Georgians / .....", and then there will be another mass escape from the country and screaming "but we have nothing to do with it, it's not us!"

Do you know what Russian mothers say, whose sons went to kill civilians in Ukraine and destroy Ukraine, and were deservedly destroyed by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? They curse ... no, not Putin, nor their Nazi, terrorist government, which essentially sent their sons like chickens to commit suicide ... They curse Ukraine, which their son went to destroy, having no reason to do so!

Partial mobilization concerns not only soldiers, it also concerns doctors.  In the Russian Federation, doctors are also military personnel.... 

The result of hostilities is a large number of wounded soldiers who need to be treated.  That is, doctors, instead of treating civilians from ordinary (but dangerous, and sometimes fatal) diseases, will treat wounded soldiers and officers. 

In my opinion, this will lead to an increase in mortality in the Russian Federation, which will further worsen the state of its economy.

No doubt professionals don't like wars because of the reason that they like steady and stable economy and they can work and find comfort anywhere they are. Doctors are in high demand, nurses and other professionals in health, so what do you think? They will leave to safe their lives and that of their families and most of them are bread winners of their homes. I don't think otherwise. Moreover, the Russian invading of Ukraine was not supported by the population. I remember there was a time they protested and police were arresting and taking them to prison. So if you have a war you don't support and you can find means to elope, I think that is the best thing to do.

I'll clarify a little. With a full-fledged, adequate contract army, people do not lose their jobs, but earn money by ensuring the security of their country. We are not to be confused with terrorist mercenaries who kill citizens of another country for money.

Strongly destroys the economy - a forced conscription, as they did in Russia, after the failure of "a successful 3-week special operation, by the forces of the second army of the world"
Now the most productive part - young people - is being taken away from factories, offices, schools, hospitals. Even more - out of fear, he simply runs away from the country, saving his life, because. those who were mobilized - they are not even provided with the minimum necessary, realizing that they live for 1-2-3 weeks maximum. Friends who are now defending Bakhmut write that the Russians are like sheep, wave after wave, sent to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Their equipment and weapons are like those of the last homeless people. Yes, artillery and MLRS are being poured from the back, Russia still has a lot of them. But manpower is really like on a chicken farm where stupid brainless chickens dutifully go to the slaughter.
And already now in Russia, many enterprises are stopping or reducing work. And given the second (I'm sure there will be a third and fourth wave of mobilization in Russia), the productive population will still be up to about 200-400 thousand net losses (killed), about 1 million wounded / disabled / mutilated (read incapacitated, useless for the country) . And also another 2-3 million fully able-bodied male population will flee from Russia. This is going to be a real crisis. But I am sure that Russia has a chance to become a new region of China, where they will be helped to restore their livestock

That's right, military service indeed makes the economy disturbed, a person who is supposed to work and get a daily wage must lose the wage, I think that military service must be immediately eliminated because I think the impact is also not significant.

I am a humanist, I always take care of our smaller brothers

But you were delighted early and stopped hiding from mobilization Your pathetic Fuhrer starts a new set of consumables from December-January, with which he plays war games.
Well, you know ".. even more people die in Russia from alcoholism and in accidents ... In addition, we are all mortal, and anyway, sooner or later we will die. This is normal" (C) Putin about 80,000 dead Russian terrorists, when meeting with fake mothers of soldiers

1. The population of Russia is not 145 million - this has already been discussed more than once. If we take statistics that were classified for some reason in 2022, then in terms of taxes, pensions and other indicators, we can talk about about 100 million.
2. At the same time, Russia is a leader in terms of children, normal families, deaths from alcoholism, the prevalence of AIDS, tuberculosis and other chronic complex diseases.
3. Degradation of the economy and the rest does not allow to have an acceptable level of meicine, as well as to produce most modern drugs. And imports are reduced to 0. Ask a non-Moscow resident - what happened to the assortment of good medications in pharmacy chains - you will be surprised
4. The enormous costs of the terrorist war, sanctions, embargoes, the drain (let's be honest - a cowardly flight from mobilization) of a huge number of productive population - all this has already launched irreversible processes in the Russian economy.


Ukraine now needs technical and financial assistance to counter the international terrorist, it is foolish to deny it.
Regarding manpower - from a personal example: February 25, 2022, the first day of a terrorist strike by Russia. My son and I went to sign up for the Territorial Defense. I had to stand in line for about 4 hours for my turn to reach me! This is one, not the most densely populated area of ​​Kyiv, this is ONE of hundreds of points for volunteers. These queues were about 2 weeks, then they just stopped recording, because. it was not even possible to process the minimum of all applications.

You lovers of the Russian world can't understand what it means to live as a person and not live in the wild, vile Russian world About honor, conscience, freedom - I won't even tell you, you still won't understand

Ukraine did not ask other countries for help in the war against Russia by military personnel of other states. Ukrainians are still capable of resisting the horde from Russia on their own, but they are counting on the help of the civilized world with military equipment and financial support. The Russian regular army that entered Ukraine was almost completely destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Mobilization in Russia will not significantly solve anything in the age of high technologies and high-precision weapons, which are now successfully mastered in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian mobilization of poorly trained and equipped people will create more problems for Russia itself, which can already be seen after the massive wave of mobilization since September 21st.

Population of Russia is around 145 million. There maybe another 5+ million within the territories of Ukraine which were annexed by Russia. Ukraine is now having around 35 million citizens (after subtracting the 5+ million who are in annexed regions), and out of that around 10 million are living as refugees outside that country. If Ukraine doesn't receive support in the form of manpower from NATO and other allies, then in the long term it gets difficult for them to put up strong resistance against the Russians.

I'm impressed to read so many war game analytics! But how about thread following? Which is, remind me, Economy / Economics alright? Trading exchanges in Russia are under some kind of spell or something? Their trading sessions are showing some fantasy figures. This should and will affect most economy dependent population in the EU. It might involve US as well. Should we get back to the topic. Of course I foresee replies from "most experienced" wartime experts but, for sake of Bitcointalk! Focus!   

To compare the periods of mobilizations, it is also necessary to take into account a number of other factors. First of all, that Russia attacked Ukraine, and not vice versa, throwing an invading army of almost 300,000 people at it. Usually the attacking side is counting on its regular army, and not on additional mobilization of the civilian population after this army is defeated. And for a country that has been suddenly attacked by large enemy forces, it is quite natural and logical to mobilize as necessary to repel such an attack. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the population of these countries: in Russia there are about 240 million people, and in Ukraine a little more than 40 million.
In addition, covert mobilization in Russia was carried out even before the official announcement of its implementation, and I am absolutely sure that it will continue in the future.

I appreciate your concern for my life, but please don't project your own fears onto me. Moreover, partial mobilization in Russia ended yesterday, while general mobilization in Ukraine continues as before.

 

Fear, fear is eating you from the inside Nothing, considering your previous "brave statements", by the new year you will have a chance to prove not in word, but in deed how you will heroically defeat "NATO and Bandera"

Of course, you don’t know anyone who was mobilized, they don’t call anyone, the bald-headed terrorist didn’t announce any mobilization, and you didn’t hide anywhere from the summons to the draft board! So everything is there, in the heroic reality of a typical Russian

And they bury in all the cities of Russia - probably ... no one, just like that, for fun And they howl and snot - they are not called "mobiles" dressed in rags, and they are not told that they should buy women's pads and tampons for themselves in case their injuries

Lies and denial of reality, more precisely, total lies and total denial of reality - this is precisely the main "defense mechanism" of Russians, who perfectly understands what is happening and what is its "price", but tries to inspire himself, and deceive himself ... well, what still remains weak-willed and powerless residents of Russia?

At the same time, the Russians do not turn on the brain, and do not see that "a short, 2-3 week, victorious operation to denify Ukraine" has been going on for 9 months! Russia has lost the most important battles, lost vast territories previously captured by Russian terrorist troops, the army of Russian terrorists is suffering huge losses in modern history! And now that very "second army in the world" is forced to collect all sorts of rabble for mobilization, and also to try to revive the tanks of the 60s of the last century ... Because it's scary. Cowardice is another trait of international terrorists!

PS Yes, subscriptions give income, and all this goes to the penny to help ZSU, to destroy world terrorists and their one-time "soldafons" Yes, we are raising money to help our army, which protects our independence and freedom from Russian terrorism ... Oh yes, I'm sorry that I write words you don't understand - "freedom" and "independence"
So the crypt goes to the cause of destroying the brown plague of the 21st century!

PS If you go in our direction "defeat us" - write in private, I'll throw off my phone number, maybe you can save your life! 

You're right.  

Theoretically, a war could also break out in the south, which would affect the territory of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.  This war can be started by the Taliban.  On the other hand, China is likely to be able to protect these countries (especially Kazakhstan).  The countries of middle (or otherwise central) Asia are currently under the patronage of China.  

There are other risks for emigrants (conflicts with local residents, interethnic conflicts, etc.).  

At the same time, what is happening in Russia is monstrous.  And I'm not sure that Russia will be a safe place for people in the next 10 years.  Too much evil and aggression.  I try to reason with my compatriots, but many are acting like crazy.  Perhaps those people who left Russia made the right choice and everything will be fine with them over time.  I dont know.  

Perhaps Kazakhstan will become a leader among other countries of the former CIS, and Georgia will become a mecca for IT companies.  This is a possible option.

Partial mobilization will have a very negative impact on the Russian economy.  In addition to the men mobilized to the front, a huge number of educated and sought-after specialists (men of working age) left the country.  In addition, many have left their official jobs (at work they hand out subpoenas from the military commissariat) and are hiding.  Their wives and mothers are in a state of terrible stress and are also unable to work effectively.  Even those people who are relatively safe cannot focus on work, as they begin to realize that their future has been stolen from them.

I did not hide anywhere, just unlike you, I have no obligations regarding the number and frequency of writing messages on this forum.

You are trying in vain to exaggerate the scale of partial mobilization in Russia. Personally, I do not know anyone who was mobilized after September 21 this year. In total, about 150 people (and some of them volunteers) were mobilized from my city with a population of about 50 thousand inhabitants.

1. By the new year, you will receive an agenda, you will realize your dreams
2. We ourselves allocate land to you ... A little, somewhere 1mx2m, in the fields. The fertilizer from your soldiers is excellent! Thank you for this!



GDP of course sank a lot. It's stupid to argue. There is a total terrorist attack on Ukraine by Russia. It's stupid to deny. But you do not see the meaning of the word "bankrupt". It's like in Russia it was in 1998 - it's bankrupt, and default on foreign debts. example. And Ukraine fulfills its obligations, plus, the countries are real friends, and not "fraternal people" terrorists, given the situation, have simplified the requirements and, moreover, financially help. So what about Ukraine - Bankorot, these are your fantasies, regular ones

The black spot is just "Zimbabwe with snow" - I hope you understand who it is about And the fact that terrorists from Russia terrorize the civilian population, bombing peaceful cities, civilian infrastructure, totally losing the war - nothing, we will restore everything, slightly reduce consumption. The main thing is that the country of the terrorist should be destroyed, which, in general, is the point


PS So where did you hide from the agenda for a week?

I did not receive a summons for mobilization, because I did not serve in the army. During the military age period, I first studied at the university, and then worked at the enterprise of the military industrial complex, which provided armor from the army for its employees. However, I am quite healthy, in good physical shape, I have a hunting license and practical shooting skills - so I can go to the front as a volunteer (and maybe I will do it in the spring so as not to freeze my ass in the trenches in winter). For now, this is not necessary. As an experienced bounty hunter, I am waiting for Putin to sign a decree on the allocation of a hectare of land near Odessa to the participants in the special operation.

Ukraine's GDP has already fallen by 30%, the Central Bank of Ukraine recently kept the key rate at 25%, from an economic point of view, Ukraine is bankrupt and completely dependent on funding from the US and the EU. After a week of attacks on TPP transformers, Ukraine stopped exporting electricity to the EU and switched to an energy-saving mode with rolling blackouts throughout the country. In nighttime satellite images, Ukraine is already a black spot on the continent. Keep pretending everything is fine.

I already began to worry about you, I thought where I had disappeared - in the outback you are hiding from the agenda "to defend your homeland and rubber ass", or you have already been sent to slaughter after handing the summons! And you're back Hiding from the agenda? Nothing - December - January will fix that

About the bankrupt country - this is very exciting, tell me a new topic from the old training manual?
I’ll also throw in a well-worn Temko - “Ukraine will freeze in winter without Russian gas” - I listen to this topic in a warm apartment, every November / December! Already 10 years
Well, I’m not distracted - let’s talk about bankrupt Ukraine, and the powerful economy of terrorists ... oh, Russia

You have strange ideas about a better life. Ukraine is a bankrupt country, unable to exist without continuous external financing, in your opinion is this the better life?

The problem for Russian citizens is that Putin's crime family has been ruling there for decades and the Russians are incapable of overthrowing it. They lack cohesion and readiness for self-sacrifice in order for the rest to have a better life. What is missing is exactly what was demonstrated in Ukraine during the expulsion of the criminal regime of Yanukovych in 2013. Moreover, the majority of Russian citizens even support the current attack on Ukraine and rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. For this they will have to pay for many of their subsequent generations. Leaving the country is not an option. Need to change Russia through democratic reforms. This will still remain an internal problem of the Russians and only they will have to solve it.

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia and other countries that have allowed migrant workers from Russia to visit them can turn this to their advantage and correct the current situation!
The most intelligent and hardworking Russian guest workers (this is of course a small percentage, but there are some) - can do the rough work, janitors, loaders, taxi drivers, etc. low-paid but necessary vacancies will be closed.
And the rest - they can be sold back to Russia for example for 100-200 dollars! More than a million escaped "heroes of Russia" will bring to your economy many millions of stable currency, help solve the problem in the rental market, and other problems that guest workers from Russia brought to your countries!

If you are an employee, then this is a problem. If you have your own business, then you can re-register for a loved one, for example, mom or dad.
A lot of people are leaving for other countries, but they do not take into account your moment about what the situation will be in these countries in the next 2 years. Americans know how to make orange revolutions, and life in any small country can get even worse, and there will be nowhere to run, because the money will run out.

In theory, you are right, subpoenas from the military registration and enlistment office can only be served at the place of registration of citizens. In practice, summons for mobilization are usually handed over to the personnel department of the enterprise at the place of work of the person liable for military service in the reserve.

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

No one argues that there will be big problems in the economy in Russia, because a lot of specialists are leaving. But there will be even more problems in Europe, because Europeans do not want to live like in Russia, and access to cheap resources is closed.
I am sure that this military conflict will not end quickly, so it will be bad both in Russia and in Europe. But in the USA everything will be fine.

Op says we should take 300,000 with a pinch of salt, but I'd actually say we should take the conscription very seriously and assume that the data suggested by some that the goal is to mobilize around a million people might be very real. Many Russians are fleeing the country to avoid conscription, and some will avoid it by other means like not having an official job and living not at an official place of residence, bribes etc. But the majority will calmly agree to get mobilized, so whatever the goal is in terms of the number of people to throw into the war, it's likely to be reached.
There are also barely any protests (excluding Dagestan, which shouldn't be equated to Russia because it's a separate nation which basically lost a war and was forced to be a part of Russia), considering the population of the country.
Russian economy, unfortunately, is stronger than many assumed. Partly it's thanks to good management (surprisingly, but true, given how they stabilized ruble despite the odds), partly thanks to "neutral" China and India, as well as some European countries paying still tons of money (billions monthly) for Russian energy sources. So, while many people will be hit, businesses will struggle and things will get worse, I don't think Russia is on a verge of economic collapse, and the exodus of males won't crumble it.
I do believe that long-term the issues can become very serious for Russia. But not in the upcoming months, not economically. Also, the world would truly have to commit to stop giving Russia billions of dollars for meaningful change to happen.

Russia is now rapidly falling apart as a single state. For a long time such unity was based on fear, coercion and violence. Now the fear among indigenous peoples is gradually disappearing as the central government weakens, which is caused by significant military defeats of the Russians on the fronts of Ukraine. And since Ukraine continues to quite successfully carry out offensive operations and inflict heavy military losses in manpower and equipment on the Russians, the weakening of the central government will only intensify and, at the same time, the desire of the outskirts of Russia for independence will grow. What Russia has always used in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine with the newly formed "republics" should soon begin in Russia itself. Putin in all such cases stated that he respects the right of nations and nationalities to self-determination and independence. Only the Chechen wars have shown that such a right to self-determination does not extend to the territory of Russia. But now the situation is changing. The Russian cadre army is practically destroyed in Ukraine, and the central government no longer has the strength to drown national movements in blood.
On the other hand, the sanctions are slowly but surely doing their job. Therefore, the outflow of brains and capital will only intensify. Russia faces a bleak future for many generations.

In such unjust cases, yes, I escape from conscription. I will not fight to fulfill the illusions of grandeur of some stupid politicians, nor will I fight to protect those rich people who are overweight from stealing the people’s money. In any case, this reserve conscription needs additional resources and this will cost additional money to the tired state treasury. Basically, the flight of the educated elite of scientists, engineers, doctors and skilled workers will also have a very negative impact on the crumbling Russian economy.

Of course, they won't allow this mass transit but I think it again caught them by surprise, they expected some to flee but note that many, and they can't really close the border with tanks cause that would send the wrong message, so they will try to pose as a free country while letting maybe a million slips and then when enough is enough strat with check-ups far before the border so they will stop them outside the camera range.

There won't be 100k fleeing a day, but no way they can prevent everyone.
If some are starting to shoot their commanders in recruitment centers or burn them down, no 1m fence guarded by a wild yak in the middle of nowhere will stop them from fleeing.


The highly value citizens were the first to flee, first because skilled ones have the brain to understand what's happening in the economy second because they are far harder to being brainwashed, and they know they can have a better life outside. Also they understand that once the 'less skilled" is killed on the front those gaps have to be plugged with something, and sooner or later it's full volkssturm mode where everything with two legs walking on the street minding his business will get trashed in a van and sent to the frontlines with a piece of paper telling him that once Igor Dummkopf is dead to take his rifle and charge at the enemy.

Reddit is full of images of prisoners with their papers, people that have been captured only 5-10 days after being drafted, someone has to fill the place, and at this rate, they are going to run out of unproductive soviet komrades.

The highly valued citizens, ie doctors, engineers, IT/Computer science related specialties, will not face conscription. Their skills are more valued in the home country rather than being shipped off to war. Conscription's usually been relegated for the people that bring man power, not technical knowledge. To the extent of the war, your core competency is that you be able to hold a gun and follow orders. There's plenty of Russians to choose from.

It shouldn't affect the economy anymore than a costly war and sanctions are already affecting the economy.

That is an expected thing, I mean why would they want to stay and go fight, when they could just leave to a cheaper nation and stay there until the war is over? It would not make sense to compare these two together.

I understand that there are some nationalistic people who see it holy to go to war and die, some even say it guarantees you to go to heaven if you die in a war for your nation, but you need to realize this is a war for Putin, he is the only one that wants it and no religion on God's green earth would guarantee heaven just because you died while trying to kill innocent other people in the name of your president, that's just not possible.

You are right, no one can fully control such long borders, and bribery and corruption are at a really high level in that country. However, if Russia closed its borders, there would not be such mass departures in columns that sometimes stretch for tens of kilometers, so I am sure that much fewer people would decide to leave the country illegally. Some speculations say that the borders could be closed by the end of the month, supposedly they are just waiting for the annexation of the occupied territories to be announced.

---

This is not only specific to Russia, in all wars the poor are always sent to the front lines because they are expendable - while the children of the rich and politicians are declared unfit for warfare. The current prime minister of my country and the president were both incapable of defending their country when it was needed, and today they have a status greater than any warrior from that era.

One Russian general said something like this: "If the sons and relatives of all deputies and other leaders are sent to the front lines, then the war will end quickly"
In the meantime, many people from poor families are taken to the war, it will continue.

I would run away to avoid conscription. Why would I leave a good job or a good business to kill other people who didn't do anything to myself, my loved ones, or even my country? Why would I leave my family just to sustain a crazy invasion? Why would I leave a peaceful and good life just to support a violence that I do not share and am even embarrassed of. Even if I don't really want to, I'd leave my country with my family and be at peace somewhere else.

However, this is somebody speaking who is probably looking at the current invasion with a different lens. I don't idolize Putin. I wasn't brainwashed. I am not subjected to its harsh rules and its implementation from the authorities. I am not living my day-to-day life listening to or watching propaganda from the radio or the television, respectively. To those who went through all this, however, he/she might be more than willing to kill or be killed.

If this movement will be massive, then it might indeed affect the country's economy in one way or another.

The reality is a little different:
1. 300,000 disposable Russians, this is the first wave, not the most successful mobilization of the second army in the world
2. If the old Kremlin asshole does not return to a more or less adequate state (for example, it dies), there will be only 4 waves, with a total number of 1,200,000 bodies driven to the slaughter.
3. That tacit agreement with which they go to death, meaningless, suggests that in the life of these bipeds there is nothing more or less valuable
It will not hurt the economy - how can you hurt a dying economy.
4. Russians leaving for other countries will receive the status of guest workers, will work at the cheapest job, and send their relatives to Russia 100-150 dollars of income per month

Do you want videos of drunk Russian minorites being mobilized or rusty AK's and why would Wagner even use criminals to bolster their numbers if they aren't lacking the manpower?

Any general would not risk young men to just give them riffles, train them for about 2 weeks and then put them on the frontline. That would be a suicide which is not logical for a Russian general to do that.

The conscription is for people who had been trained in military services before and are put into different departments like for Fire Department or Disaster Rescue Department. They are probably reporting to the military once a month, they are not civilians. If civilians are fleeing, they'd be putting themselves in danger. Not all countries, welcome refugees with hospitality.
 

I see, I guess you are still wearing your blinder.

Yes, Its not overblown that Russian Youtubers are not fleeing your country and all of the videos by shared by multiple Russian people are a hoax. Also the amount of trolls on reddit was significantly reduced when the mobilization was announced.


Are you still relying on your media to discern why Putin is mobilizing citizens?

The border with Kazahstan is twice as long as the one between USA and Mexico, not to mention the one in Mongolia which is roughly the same, a few hundred dollars and every border patrol will let you off with cheers!
People have managed to fled the USSR, this will be a piece of cake.


Because up til now you've believed Putin's number about only one guy who was terminally ill dying in Ukraine when the numbers are in the tens of thousands? What happened to the regular army, the highly trained one that was supposed to attack when Ukraine's military was spent, sleeping on Moskva?


Yeah, working in Russia, getting paid from Russia but, what a surprise spending all their money in the country, let's multiply a simple sum of 1500$ a month by 300k who have left only this wave and you've got 5 billion$, money that was supposed to come back in the economy and fuel growth, instead you have money coming out and helping the former friendly states who are now laughing and spitting on the former wanna be a global power. But everything is going great there, once you capture that borsch that Ukraine didn't want to share with you everything will be even better.


Not when you're required to bring everything from socks to bullet proofs vest and tampons instead of bandages from home. 


Yeah, I bet all those people dying from hunger in Africa are far better off since they don't have any debt while the ones with a 20 years mortgage on a 10 million suite in Manhattan are living a nightmare. Congo has a 17% debt to GDP ratio, I might be wrong but is that a country you would want to settle in? 

Who wouldn't run away to avoid conscription when you're the invading army? It's different when you're defending your home (thinking of Britain for example, high rate of voluntary show) but I think every country's who'd had to forcibly recruit (or conscript if we want) will always face runaways. Well documented in the 1970s at least I know of, probably more so today in a fluid age of globalisation.

Defending your home, it's seldom even an option if you've got family to protect. And Bitcoin wallets to preserve haha.

We're fortunate if we don't have that choice to make.

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia. 
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

I am sure that it will. How? First, the army will consume a lot of resources (and the army is huge).
Second, the conscription will hurt the economy since it will take away a lot of people who are needed.
Third, the conscription will hurt a lot of families who will have to change their economic activities and will have to support the conscripts.
Fourth, it will cause a lot of economic disruptions since a lot of people will be displaced.
And fifth, the conscription will hurt the morale of the people who will see their sons, brothers and friends going to die in a war that they don't support.


As for me, I will obviously flee. No doubt. Only idiots die in wars lol

The Russian economy is in ruins already right now, they managed to keep the illusion going for the first 6 months - before Putin was finally so stupid as to turn off the oil and gas taps to Europe for the last time. Even in the whole of the Soviet union and the Iron Curtain the Russian government saw how valuable an income source it created. In just the last two days the Russian stock exchange has collapsed further than ever before and remember that is happening when foreign nationals are not allowed to sell stocks, so it's all locals cashing their stocks out. Almost all foreign businesses which brought vitality to the Russian markets have pulled out and getting hold of vital components will become ever harder. Frankly the conscription will be the only reliable job left in Russia very soon, that is how stupid their government have let them down for a petty war.

If a global recession sets in, no one will have economic statistics worth being proud of. Perhaps a better question may be what america, the EU and other nations of the world do to prepare for negative economic effects. There isn't much point in celebrating the alleged demise of russia's economy when the economy of our own nation could soon suffer a similar fate. Russia's national debt being around 20% of GDP could place it in a better position to weather economic disruptions in contrast to other nation's of the world.

I saw a source which claimed russia's military invaded ukraine despite lacking radio encryption. This is the type of factoid the media could publicize more. If their goal were to make Putin and the russian military appear incompetent or weak. Overall wartime danger for conscripts is not very high at the moment, I think. The ukraine coalition appears to have success based around deployment of HIMARs which primarily targets russian military leadership and supplies. Its not the average russian soldier who is being targeted the most. Life expectancy for russian conscripts could be much better than it is for high ranking officers.

While the "what would you do, if you were a russian conscript" portion of OP's post might appear hypothetical. It is possible that the united states could launch a full offensive on russia once the 2022 elections are over. Of which conscription or a draft could play a major role.

I honestly don't know what I would do if conscripted/drafted. Being a frontline soldier isn't the only option. Militaries of the world have 2x to 3x or greater support personnel for every available soldier. Statistically there is a chance conscripts could wind up being refrigerator repairmen. Or land in a support role. Having some type of technical or mechanical ability could make conscripts better suited to office work than wielding an AK-47.

The best course of action might be to lookup which support roles are most needed to support front line troops. Take courses to develop a skillbase in that area. That way if you are conscripted you'll have a decent chance of qualifying for a support staff role, rather than front line combat.

Being fully honest I would probably run away if I would get drafted to join the military during a full scale war. First of all, I have 0 military training and never really shoot a rifle. In my country military training is not mandatory anymore and the military doesn't have a high social standing. The second motivation would be that the news out of Ukraine are very bad for Russia, the front line is collapsing and the chances of winning are very small. Why risk your life in a doomed war? The third problem for me is that it seems there is only 2 weeks of military training before being developed to the front line. That's not enough to get effective soldiers who will be able to fight veteran Ukrainian troops.
The effect on the Russian economy will be devastating. I read on the weekend that already 250,000 young Russian man left the country. Together with all the people that are being drafted there will be a lot of people missing from workforce which is going to reduce the economy even further.

I don't know where you get your information from, but China has very good relations with Russia, and we should also mention Iran and India, which in most things behaves as if there is no war. In addition, at least 25% of the countries in the world are in some kind of neutral mode with Russia, so if we add it all up, it is a market of several billion people who would come to work for the right price if necessary.

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Just as sanctions do not have a direct effect on the Russian economy, nor is the departure of people something that will break the economy in a month or two. However, somehow I do not believe that Putler will allow mass emigration, the borders can be closed at any moment, war can be officially declared and everyone who tries to escape will be treated as deserters. Today I read what the President of Belarus said about this while consoling his colleague from Moscow, and that is that it might be good for some people to leave, because what is the use of them if they do not want to be loyal servants of the regime.

Although the situation is not identical, I can somewhat draw a parallel with what has been happening in my country in the past 10 years, which is the loss of over 400 000 people (about 10% of the total population), which is not a problem for the ruling politicians, because not only they have reduced unemployment, but they have already gotten rid of the critical mass that was a possible trigger for changes in the country.

It's 146 total, and only half of them roughly 70 million work, you cut half of them again since the ones working for the government, police,  doctors, and teachers, as well as government-owned companies, won't be sent to the frontline and you have 200k in the first wave and roughly 400k now, that's about 3% and a further 1% of what's left going to the frontline and probably going to get killed or left handicapped for life. Plus it won't be the cashier at Auchan that would be fleeing but the ones that have enough money to flee, the ones with education and experience that know how to get a job, and more importantly who have the money to pay one year of advance on rent in a foreign country, not to mention the 2000E plane ticket 

Of course, the effect won't be felt immediately but in a year or two, the consequences will be disastrous, not only was Russia's population shrinking rapidly before now it will be worse and worse in the year to come.


If my country would be that stupid in the first place not only would I have left the moment the war started but way back!
If I were on the other side, the attacked one, that's it, I would pack my bag and go do what I was trained to do, my relatives died in the war, a few of my older relatives in the previous war, probably dozens did in the other century, guess it would be my time.
Shitty ending, but I had a good run!

Is this a rhetorical question? The impact will be negative, of course. Many people with good education will leave the country.
The scale of the negative impact probably won't be that big. Tens of thousands of people aren't that big number for a country with 146 million, but most of the people running away are skilled and educated.


What friendly countries? North Korea and Syria? Perhaps North Korea might send several thousand educated people, but they will have to learn Russian first. I don't think that the regime in North Korea would let educated people leave the country. They probably won't go back once they leave.

According to the data, Russia has about 146 million inhabitants and I do not believe that this emigration will have too great an impact on their economy, unless the final figure is a few million people who are somewhat important for the system. Even if this happens, there is always the possibility that Russia will import labor from friendly countries.

I am surprised that the borders are not closed and that people are allowed to leave, although I guess the rule according to which a conscript can refuse to participate in the war still applies, because Russia still defines it as a special operation.

I assume that the question is aimed at the Russian members of the forum, but I certainly would not go to a war that is by all definitions a war of conquest and which does not respect the Geneva Conventions. Some say that only cowards run away, but in this case, all those who do not want to have bloody hands and an unclean conscience are running away.

its a mandatory for them and they are at war, anyone who will run will be considered a deserter. if you are in a country at war also, everyone who were trained as military service will have to comply to serve the country. just like US army, its also their military duty. they are also proud to join the force. they can't just run besides European countries suspend visa issuance and restrict Russian citizens.

Yes of course, mainly because I don't agree with the war. If I agreed with it, maybe I'd play Rambo, but since it's a war, or rather an invasion, which I understand is unjust, I'd try to escape if I could.


The effects of wars are usually bad for the economy in general, for both sides, and this is something we are seeing in Europe. If the war were to end today, the situation could only improve, in Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the rest of the world in general.

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?