The Effect of A Massive HODL Campaign

BitHodler

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Quote from: mk4 on February 10, 2019, 04:17:03 AM

I'd honestly rather wait for bitcoin to organically find it's sort of "stable" price, no matter how long it takes.

Bitcoin needs volatility in order to make a significant move, because stability or longer term consolidation come with low volumes, and this usually means that it's more likely to go down further.

The 'stable' price you're referring to was between $6000-$7000, and eventually we broke out and saw the price tank with 50%. I hope we don't face a similar scenario would the volumes and the rate of volatility drop significantly.

The crypto market thrives on crazy price movements, and when there isn't much of that to entertain retail and professional traders, they get bored. More activity means more volumes and more likely a move up.

Febo

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

I believe that by far vast majority of people owning Bitcoin are not selling it. Only a minority of traders does. If thy would stop then liquidity on exchanges would drastically reduce and Bitcoin price would become even more volatile as it is right now.

Erdogan

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If nobody would sell Bitcoin, it would mean that there are only buyers on the market. There can only be one answer, the price would have to go up.

joy99

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

Hodling when there is a demand for the coin causes a surge in price of the coin. Bitcoin's price will not go up if 90% are holding and the 10% circulating are being sold in times when no one needs bitcoin.
The reason why people advocate for a hold in bear market is that the more people are selling, the higher the dump. Everyone with their own experience know when and as to why they hodl which no one might never know about.

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on February 10, 2019, 02:51:22 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on February 10, 2019, 08:03:29 AM

I'm not convinced breaking even 4.5k would bode anything for 2019, but sure, I think it will be some much welcome respite.

It depends on what your targets are for this year. My personal target for 2019 is to settle above the main $5700-$5800 support, preferably firmly above the $6000 level. If that happens, I consider this to be a successful year. It's going to be a tough level to break through, and that while it kept us up for most of 2018, but it's not entirely impossible.

I just don't see it happening this year (reclaiming $6K as support). That level acted as support for 9 months.....it should be hard resistance by now. It will definitely take more than one attempt to break it on the weekly or monthly time frame. Even if the bottom is in, we're still scraping the bottom mid-way through Q1. Just considering the time aspect, I think sometime in 2020 is more likely.

1Referee

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 10, 2019, 08:03:29 AM

I'm not convinced breaking even 4.5k would bode anything for 2019, but sure, I think it will be some much welcome respite.

It depends on what your targets are for this year. My personal target for 2019 is to settle above the main $5700-$5800 support, preferably firmly above the $6000 level. If that happens, I consider this to be a successful year. It's going to be a tough level to break through, and that while it kept us up for most of 2018, but it's not entirely impossible.

We have to forget about bull runs and focus on realistic growth, because that's much more reliable in the end. On top of that, the longer it takes for wild west speculation to start boiling up, the more time there is for Lightning to grow and serve users off-chain. If we can also welcome Schnorr signatures this year then that's even better.

In other words, boring year in terms of price action is an amazing year for Bitcoin fundamentally.

buwaytress

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Quote from: 1Referee on February 09, 2019, 05:32:56 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on February 09, 2019, 12:10:17 PM

Wouldn't work for Bitcoin. I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

It's difficult to combat sellers who are either selling because they have to, regardless of the price, or ICO's who obtained their coins with a shitty infeasible idea that wouldn't ever work anyway. These entities (especially the ICO's) have no problems selling even at $2000 if they have/want to. People are rightfully cautious to go balls deep and buy up every satoshi at current levels with that in mind.

I do however have the impression that the market is exhausted and we're potentially up for a sweet bounce over $4000, and if it breaks the resistance around $4200 it would be the first bit of positiveness in a very long time.

The past day's volumes in the buy zone certainly look like the exhaustion was - for the time being - premature. I actually even have a bet last month on fairlay that needs BTC to touch 4k by 15 Feb to win, and that was a 5/1 bet at the time, so I guess not many people were backing that sweet bounce.

I'm not convinced breaking even 4.5k would bode anything for 2019, but sure, I think it will be some much welcome respite.

@exstasie: I think the pragmatists have been waiting for this period of blood and digging in deeper. The realists will insist that we're still far from that period yet... capitulation, however cyclical, hasn't actually happened yet.

mk4

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Quote from: shoreno on February 09, 2019, 09:06:11 PM

its a good idea actually because in this way , we can help the price to recover but the only problem is that it is impossible to have a unity .

It's actually not a very good idea. It's just another way of manipulating the markets, the difference is that it's just in favor of the hodlers. I'd honestly rather wait for bitcoin to organically find it's sort of "stable" price, no matter how long it takes.

michellee

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Both can happen at the same times but I don't think that will happen because all traders will have a different decision and that is what we are going to see later. If all traders decide to not sell bitcoin, then the market will stop but I don't know about altcoin, follows to stop or continue to being traded. And it will soon we will see bitcoin will end because no one wants to buy or sell and it makes the price stops moving although the supply still continues and maybe the price can fall deeper.

shoreno

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Quote from: Dreamchaser21 on February 08, 2019, 08:52:36 AM

If no one will buy then the price will become more cheaper until no more sellers and the price will become more stable. After the deadline of 30days, we can expect a more volatile price because everyone want to liquidate their money and leave the market for now because it will crash for sure. So I think this is really not a good idea.

its a good idea actually because in this way , we can help the price to recover but the only problem is that it is impossible to have a unity .we all have different needs . not all user can hodl in a longer time because we also need the cash . its unfair for some but that is the reality . sorry !

Quote from: Oilacris on February 07, 2019, 05:41:17 PM

on such case of this campaign then there would be no effect on the price.

there is effect and thats is the price will became stagnant . some people loves stability and i think this can lead to new investors to enter the market scene . after that , the price are expected to move again .

exstasie

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 09, 2019, 12:10:17 PM

I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

Honestly, I feel that, and unfortunately that's an environment ripe for capitulation. The problem with the old "blood in the streets" metric is you can see a whole lot of blood before the market has finally had enough.

Quote from: 1Referee on February 09, 2019, 05:32:56 PM

I do however have the impression that the market is exhausted and we're potentially up for a sweet bounce over $4000, and if it breaks the resistance around $4200 it would be the first bit of positiveness in a very long time.

Same feeling here. It would look a lot like the pump we saw in Q4 of 2014. Given the environment I'm seeing, I think the market will still dig deeper afterwards.

1Referee

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 09, 2019, 12:10:17 PM

Wouldn't work for Bitcoin. I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

It's difficult to combat sellers who are either selling because they have to, regardless of the price, or ICO's who obtained their coins with a shitty infeasible idea that wouldn't ever work anyway. These entities (especially the ICO's) have no problems selling even at $2000 if they have/want to. People are rightfully cautious to go balls deep and buy up every satoshi at current levels with that in mind.

I do however have the impression that the market is exhausted and we're potentially up for a sweet bounce over $4000, and if it breaks the resistance around $4200 it would be the first bit of positiveness in a very long time.

buwaytress

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

I just received an email not three days ago from an exchange that's issued its own token to do exactly that actually. Apparently, I go in, buy a small amount of their tokens, and hold for 30 days, and I get some fee waiver bonus plus all sorts of other goodies just for doing that.

I suppose someone must have already tried out that strategy (isn't there a coin called strong hands or something?)... get everyone to hold and see a price climb simply because there isn't enough sell orders to fuel demand?

Wouldn't work for Bitcoin. I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

magneto

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

Firstly, how would you be able to create this "campaign"? It's simply unfeasible and impossible to make it work because of the sheer number of people that you have to convince. Add the fact that bitcoin is decentralised, you will never make this work in practice.

Secondly, even if it did work theoretically everyone would know that bitcoin's supply has been artificially suppressed, and as a result I expect investors to back out of purchasing altogether, leading to reduced liquidity. Another possible scenario would be that people would speculate and gamble, but that would only be something short term which will eventually collapse.

Either way, I don't think that this type of centralised manipulation would ever work, and if it did, it would in fact significantly hurt bitcoin in the long run especially with the public's perception of bitcoin being changed to something that can be easily manipulated.

Dreamchaser21

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

If no one will buy then the price will become more cheaper until no more sellers and the price will become more stable. After the deadline of 30days, we can expect a more volatile price because everyone want to liquidate their money and leave the market for now because it will crash for sure. So I think this is really not a good idea.

gabmen

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Quote from: sirohige on February 07, 2019, 05:07:48 PM

Quote from: Idrisu on February 07, 2019, 04:15:44 PM

If all of us refused to sell bitcoin will definitely be stagnated and at the end no need for it as we would all sell after the 30 days and pushed the price down. Bitcoin should be allowed to recover by itself as it has been doing.

well, ico follows prices and bitcoin price movements, but bitcoin will never be able to rise alone, bitcoin must need support such as buying a lot of bitcoin so that bitcoin can recover.

It seems that that's what's actually happening right now. Those that are hodling bitcoin are still hodling and have no plans of selling. As you said, market would be stagnant unless a panic attack is started or the whales decide that it's time to buy in bulks. It's likely a wait and see situation for most of us.

Slow death

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?

the price would increase as @exstasie said, but 30 days later the price would fall a lot, then do this is something useless long term

Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

this idea in the long run would not be good. we need to use bitcoin as a means of payments in the real world. we need to give bitcoin a great deal of use. What we are doing now is just use bitcoin in the exchanges to make trade and because of this all people are entering the crypto world because they want to get high profits, people are not giving another use for their bitcoins only use to trade in the exchanges.

exstasie

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If everybody withheld supply, price would obviously rise.

It'll never happen like this though. You won't convince people to abandon their own rationality for the greater good of hodlers. They'll see a chance to pocket a nice profit and will just sell.

mk4

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Quote from: xuan87 on February 07, 2019, 06:52:12 PM

I think with all of the traders and holders holding their coin we will create a stagnant price, crypto need supply and demand to make the price moving without any transactions volume then the price will stay still, and it will have bad effect for the market, in long term the coin will lose its reputation

I'm definitely not for this idea of a "hodl campaign", but completely assuming that 100% of the bitcoin holders will "hodl" and sell zero bitcoin, while demand(buys) stays the same, bitcoin will definitely go up. With zero selling(which is impossible) and with demand still existing, there's no way it's going to stay stagnant.

and no, how is price stagnancy cause bitcoin to lose it's reputation? If anything, price stagnancy is actually beneficial due to the "store-of-value" idea of bitcoin will actually be effective.

xuan87

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I think with all of the traders and holders holding their coin we will create a stagnant price, crypto need supply and demand to make the price moving without any transactions volume then the price will stay still, and it will have bad effect for the market, in long term the coin will lose its reputation

Oilacris

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

On such case of this campaign then there would be no effect on the price. Why? because theres no liquidity involved into these times. Trades and holders are both on stable state which means
there no activity between sellers and buyers.No one supplied and no one buys so its normal to think that there would be no activity.

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

Why we will want to do something like that? And how it could be enforced if an agreement was reached that such a thing was good for the market? The concept of being your bank is not only about gaining independence from banks but from any other third party, we must be free of using our bitcoin as we want, if anyone tried to do something like that then there will always be traders willing to sell their coins to the detriment of those that are still holding.

sirohige

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Quote from: Idrisu on February 07, 2019, 04:15:44 PM

If all of us refused to sell bitcoin will definitely be stagnated and at the end no need for it as we would all sell after the 30 days and pushed the price down. Bitcoin should be allowed to recover by itself as it has been doing.

well, ico follows prices and bitcoin price movements, but bitcoin will never be able to rise alone, bitcoin must need support such as buying a lot of bitcoin so that bitcoin can recover.

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

this kind of campaign will end up killing bitcoin.
Imagine what will happen on the 30th day of this campaign; it's going to be the green light to sell and it's everybody who wants to sell before others.
THE END.

Idrisu

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If all of us refused to sell bitcoin will definitely be stagnated and at the end no need for it as we would all sell after the 30 days and pushed the price down. Bitcoin should be allowed to recover by itself as it has been doing.

olumyd

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

Most likely, it would make the market illiquid as there are more than 90% of coins traded against BTC, and so if BTC (which by the way holds more than 50% of market dominance) halts, the effect would ripple down and cause a whole lot of inactivity on crypto exchanges. Alternatively, while BTC prices will indeed spike due to scarcity, Ethereum as stablecoins will be the go-to place to hedge whatever miserable shitcoins anyone has, consequently increasing their worth.

But this is just a simplistic view, it could get more complex and things could spin outta control.

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

the possible effect you will get is that you will probably lose because usually the price of the token after ICO will surely fall but if ico has a good development the price will increase and rise, from experience there are a lot of token prices that fall after the ICO.

pawanjain

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Bitcoin is being used by so many people these days. Organizing a campaign might sound easy but it surely would be a tough job to convince everybody to hold their coins.
There would be at least some people who will eventually sell at some point and the rally towards panic sell will continue and lead to a down trend.
I guess most of the people just holded their coins in the year 2018 so that they don't sell their coins in a loss but the price eventually dropped anyway.

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

As the campaign will be artificial it won't achieve anything.
Traders will know that the hold period will end up in XX days and even if there is any effect, it could be speculated in future exchanges like Bitmex or Okex.

Pursuer

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

first of all that is not something you can do with a silly campaign, the biggest one took place recently and was called "proof of keys" which was encouraging people to withdraw from exchanges and keep their coins out of them... long story short nobody listened.
as for the price, technically if you do something like that you are effectively telling people to stay out of the market so price should not move at all because there is nobody left to buy or sell.

davis196

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

If the bitcoin buyers are aware of that mega HODL campaign.They would just wait for 30 days and then start buying cheap bitcoins.Everything in the market is all about information.Not just information,but asimmetric information.The sellers should know something that the buyers don't.

BitcoinHodler

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you can't force people to do anything that they don't want to. you can fool certain people with little to no experience and/or brains into doing irrational things but everyone else will do what is best for them. if someone is already accumulating and holding they will do it and if someone has sold they have sold and not waiting for some campaign.

with that said, since it is a moot question there is no point arguing some imaginary scenario that can never happen.

aoluain

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What would be the point other than generating profit by artificially
increasing the price so that some can quickly sell and take maximum
profit at the expense of others who might not be so quick or are
blindly holding . . . something like a pump and dump would occur.

perla

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

Maybe volume trading will less than usually. It is good because price will stable. I only talk when people hold their Bitcoin, not when pumped. Because if a lot of people who hold Bitcoin, and it price pumped, people will start to sell their coins and price will dumped again.

kelz1

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This would only work for coins that have a limited distribution, as there are too many bitcoin hodlers this strategy would only work for pump and dumpers. Price would rise, then dumpers will benefit

eaLiTy

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

It is a billion dollar market to begin with and you really cannot control one percent of the bitcoin holders let alone having a campaign so that people will hold their coins for a certain period, market will always go down if there are more sellers than buyers and you could not literally do anything about it, that being said, since halving is coming up the inflation will reduce further and it will have an impact on the price.

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

If people would hold more their Btc instead of panic selling it, price would definitively increase. Demand would remain more or less the same but the offering will decrease significantly. This would automatically translate into a price increase.

bitbunnny

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I'm not sure that such campaigns could have any effect because it's hard to massive engage people on such projects. Everyone has iits own goals and strategy and it would be very hard to convince them that exactly holding in that exact moment is the right thing to do. But having in mind situation on the market I have the feeling that majority of Bitcoin users are holding their coins anyway.

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If the demand is high, and supply is stagnated, the price would most likely increase to draw out hodlers to sell their assets. If there is no demand or low demand, hodling would have very little effect
For a crypto assets such as bitcoin, it would be impossible to get everyone to hodl, and also demtrimental for a currency which should be used as a medium of exchange.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Atheneum Blockchain on February 06, 2019, 09:38:27 PM

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

you could never get people to do it. everyone has a different buy-in price, so profit-taking is a very personal matter. if you could convince some people to withhold supply (driving prices up), other sellers will step in and reap the profits. the effect will be minimal because sellers are rational and are competing against one another.

what's been done in some altcoins to accomplish this is to create incentives to withhold supply. proof-of-stake and masternodes, for example.

Kakmakr

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The problem with these campaigns are the people who always piss against the stream and who will not support a campaign like this. As soon as the price goes up, they will start selling and things will balance out. You cannot dictate to people on how to manage their money and investments, so you leave the market to determine it's own fate, based on supply and demand.

The best strategy would be to increase the demand for coins by reaching out to more merchants to accept Bitcoin and for developers to create Kick-ass applications that use Bitcoin as a payment option. Wink

mk4

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I've watched two sort of "organized" hodl campaigns in the past. Specifically, ChainCoin(CHC) and Syndicate(SYNX). Both pretty dead and useless coins, but yea.

The ChainCoin hodl campaign was started by a YouTuber(HighOnCoins) in the past, whereas HighOnCoins simply just deleted his past videos on ChainCoin just to clean his name. Pretty much he told the people to "hodl" the coin so the price just goes up due to significantly more CHC being bought than being sold. Then, the SYNX campaign was started by some people who was late to the ChainCoin pump and dump.

Well, obviously what happened was that when there wasn't enough money going into these coins, people started to panic and sell; just as expected. I'm going to let the charts speak for itself(NOTE: focus on BTC value. Yellow lines):

Sources:

Now, would the same happen with a bitcoin hodl campaign? No one knows just as always, but I really expect the same to happen as when the prices starts to go down, people are going to panic sell. You really can't trust 100% of the people on the campaign to hold.

dothebeats

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It could go either ways, but low liquidity might result to rush sellers lowering their price a lot lower to meet the demands of low-ballers. Should a widespread campaign prove successful, only the low-ballers and people who need cash immediately be the ones remaining in the market, thus potentially pulling the price down and causing a downtrend for the next 30 days of the campaign.

There needs to be someone in the market who would 'equalize' the buys and the sells so as to make the price stable.

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If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

Topic: The Effect of A Massive HODL Campaign (Read 612 times)