Topic: The Enigma of Crypto Trading: Weighing Experience Against Historical Trends (Read 110 times)

I don't know what exactly is your normal analysis but if you  are focusing on technical analysis then you need the previous data and patterns because it would help you decide where to open a position. Since you talk about Orderblock you might be watching or reading an article about SMC?
Order block and Fair value gap both of them work but still depend on the price structure and the safest would be opening a position under order block rather than fair value gap this is just my own experience from backtesting using SMC strategy if the position you open in order block didn't hit then you are still safe because if you place a position at FVG and break that position until OB then you will lose much compared you open position under OB.

You can try understand the SMC by using  this indicator called Mxwll suite or (Super OrderBlock by makuchaku) it detects FVG and OB automatically not all but it still gives you an idea of what are those FVG and OB.

Learning about TAs may help you understand about the market. But when you talk about crypto market and how you can truly take advantage of the opportunity to earn profits is actually a different story. Each project has their own market performance depending on how the dev team is developing their respective project. That is, if they really do have plans to accomplish their objectives for the project.

As we have seen, most alts die down eventually because they have no reason to sustain their market to begin with. Most were created to exhaust money from their investors. Once they pocketed some money, their trading market will slow down up until there's no more chance of recovery. I have seen a lot of well-written whitepapers and yet, they have the same fate with crappy projects.

For you to gauge if the project will develop into something useful and profitable, you may want to check the following factors -
> actual usage of the coin/token, what transactions can you use it for?
> what kind of customers they have? how many subscribers or active users they have?
> is the team active in sharing their developments and accomplishments?
> is it popular among crypto users?
> how about their trading volume? do you think they are playing the wash trading scheme?

And considering such factors, hard to rely on historical trends. Because in crypto, it doesn't mean much as the market performance doesn't usually follow any TA you know of. It is more on how well you know the project and where the team is heading to when it comes to their actual plans.

One of the best things about bitcoin is that it's always easy to learn from because there's a record to refer to and it always follows the same path. If you want to learn, all you have to do is look at the price, which is either rising or falling and applies to both bull and bear markets, so everyone can understand. And the thing to focus on is not more than to know how to do analysis that way you can enjoy your trading become a lot of people don’t want to take their time to learn.

Repeating is not actually the problem but how to address the challenges that comes your way while trading because everything about bitcoin has challenges, knowing how to manage your emotions to matters a lot because number this is that people are always scared that they might lose their money, they need to prepare their self before they start anything.

Market analysis is not only carried out technically but must also be seen from various other aspects, such as carrying out fundamental and sentimental analysis. Even technical analysis sometimes cannot be expected to be accurate when there is big news that can affect market trends due to changes in market players' sentiments. So if you want to really understand market movements then you shouldn't just focus on technical analysis. But you have to complete it with fundamental and sentimental analysis. And there are several other types of analysis that use several indicators commonly used in the market. But the most basic are these three analyses. Trading looks easy. but it becomes more complex when we really want to understand it.

Experience and historical trends, aren't they the same thing? If your experience doesn't match historical trend, then you're remembering things wrongly, right? hehe

I mean, if my experience says, every halving, there's a bull run, but historical trend (as in, stats and charts with proven data) shows a bull run came after every halving (but also came before the most recent one), then it's just saying the same thing?

Investor with great analysis based on experiences doesn't really mean that they're in the winning side rather they stand on chances to the winning side as you may think.
Nomatter how knowledgeable investors would be in the crypto sphere, they'll always be faced with UPs and Downs with varies of sentiments in the market. There's absolutely no professional in the crypto world to remain predictable in the market that's why a long term holding and DCAs becomes the best approach to profitablities because you can't afford to generate all that factors in just a while as a matter of being an experienced Investor.

using pattern based on historical trend usually to determine the bigger picture of the current market  .

if you analyze from the chart itself it always varies in every bullrun, so really despite bitcoin keep repeating pattern of its historical price chart, nobody know whether it will still follow the same pattern, or not.
so, people and more prominently trader are still so uncertain what direction the market gonna take, not to mention the traders are more of trying to predict the price for short term to profit from the volatility which often has so many variables added that could twist the outcome of the trade such as short squeeze, sudden bad news and so on.

so basically despite all of those things to predict the future price such as following the historical chart pattern and so on, you're still blatantly speculating here or in other words, just don't really know what's gonna happen.

We have a lot of things to consider here just as market efficiency, market sentiment, high volatility, and many more.
Other experienced traders may have a higher chance of making profitable trades because of their knowledge, skills and experience for long time in the market, most already master and become more familiar in the market.

I think I get what you’re driving at, that’s if the pattern of the coin actually takes precedent of the past that they don’t need to analyze and just go with the pattern of the past. I will say you are not that wrong to assume that history is will repeat it self but I say history doesn’t repeat it self always in the matter that concerns volatility. Yes in very long term history will repeat it self like your coins growing in profits oof held on to for long. But on a short basis like that of trading you made of most especially futures it fluctuates because of two things the demand and supply. The Chart might be in a certain pattern obeying past trend but a huge change can happen due to any of this factor.

Another strong factor that alters patterns is the fundamental analysis of that coin. Take a look at bitcoin, in the pa a new all time high only comes when the halving must have occurred, now forward to this year, we had a new ATH right before the halving period breaking the trend of the past and what did brought this? It was certainly the news around ETF approval which caused a huge surge of demand and made it so. So you see traders need to re strategize or analyze all the time just not to be beaten off by news. But in a long run the market tends to obey history that’s why you see many experienced investors ask people to go for

Yea, patterns repeat itself, trends never cease from repeating but the question the trader has to solve to be in profit is when does the trend has to actually repeat... Cause that's where your analysis comes in, you've to analyze to know not to take a wrong trading position because fake-outs are there to test your psychology. Simply put, market history do repeat but the challenge lies on the trader to get an accuracy of the timing either through technical or fundamental analysis of the market.

I have been trying to figure out something about cryptocurrency trading and the volatility in its entirety. I see traders entering trade after taking analysis of the market, considering the market pattern as it has been from past till now. Also putting into consideration other factors like order block, trendline etc. If the market movements is based on that and all traders are experienced, that means they will mostly be on the winning side of the market.

Now for those that have known how bitcoin have been transgressing since its inception and a possible bull run after the halving. If the traders are to put that into consideration, will they still need to do their normal analysis before entering the market or follow the past pattern of the market that it usually does when an event like that happens? It’s really confusing me and amazed to know how traders still get to be profitable amidst this factors.