Topic: The Gaseous Elephant in Putin's war (Read 163 times)

Some caveats on this:
a) That is only proven reserves, there is much more to explore, so you cannot categorically say so.

b) Just a few years if used exclusively and if Europe does not reduce gas dependency, both of those premises are questionable.

c) Enough to not depend fully on Putin in case of war. It is about strategic independence and having an additional supply that can be developed with funds from the West.

And, as others said there are many other reasons and resources, including some related to the supply of food to China. A video I found is interesting to understand the wealth of Ukraine and the repercussions for the international geopolitics.

Unless you think that this is really a Nazi hunt as they say?


The numbers, a bit more accurately:

Reserves(without further exploration): 39 trillion cubic feet
Germany consumption: 3.13 trillion a year

39 trillion cubic feet / 3.13 trillion cubic feet per year ... slightly above 10 years worth if used exclusively and if Germany does not reduce dependency on gas and if no further reserves are found.

Seems like this is a important reason for what's happening, I reckon not the only one.

It's worth mentioning that the whole of Ukraine is filled with precious ore, even outside the scope of Russia, but yeah, the most profit is from gas and oil that is located in the far east of Ukraine and in the south. And it's hard not to see that that was Putin's intention from 2014 when they annexed Crimea, as the deposits in the waters around the peninsula were discovered not too long before that (late 2000s if I am not mistaken). The Russians can call it whatever they want, but this is first and foremost a resource grab.

Sometimes it seems to me that some European politicians are not friendly with elementary arithmetic. Europe as a whole imports from Russia 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (of which 100 billion cubic meters are imported by Germany alone). One tanker can bring 50 million cubic meters of liquefied gas, spending a month on the road and a week on unloading. In a year, one tanker can make about ten voyages and bring 500 million cubic meters or 0.5 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. It will take 400 tankers to provide Europe with gas not by pipeline, but by transportation by tankers, and there are only 500 of them in the world. Plus, you need to build at least several large terminals for unloading these tankers, which will require 5-6 years of hard work and huge financial investments if you start right now. The number of terminals for receiving liquefied gas in Germany is currently zero (there are none at all). Plus, all these tankers need to be loaded with something, and the United States is now ready to supply a maximum of 15 billion cubic meters (out of the required 200), with a possible increase to 50 billion cubic meters. Plus, it is necessary to somehow convince all buyers from Asia, who are unlikely to be happy with this, to abandon the consumption of liquefied gas. Plus, liquefied gas is 15-60% more expensive than pipeline gas, depending on the season and the terms of long-term contracts with Russia for pipeline gas. This is the current situation with regard to gas, in a nutshell.

Russian gas reserves are 43 times larger than Ukrainian reserves. The amount EU imports from Russia would empty the Ukrainian gas reserves in just a few years.

This is what has surprised me about Putin. Russia's big advantages are its cyber-warfare (including its ability to manipulate democratic elections in other nations) and Putin's mastery of brinkmanship - he has demonstrated many times in the past that he knows just how far he can push his opponents in order to get his own way. Of course he has used violence in the past as well, but only when he knew he would be able to do so without recrimination.

This time around, what he's doing in Ukraine, and for the whole world to witness such a combination of barbarism and ineptitude, and with huge consequences for his nation in the form of sanctions... it seems like a monumental miscalculation.

Is uncomfortable for all the EU. I have always defended that Putin is simply using the military because he has failed to win the trust of Ukrainians and they have chosen (wisely) a different partnership. Meanwhile, we have to suffer the incessant trolling about Homo, Nazis, drugs and accusations of genocide to justify the aggression.

"Violence is the last resource of the incompetent" - Asimov

This fundamentally changes the matter, then there is a reasonable grain in this. Of course, Ukraine is of interest to Europe as a donor of natural resources, and of course the current armed conflict violates these plans. I will say more, the Zaporizhzhya NPP is the largest in Europe (not counting Russian nuclear power plants), and its dropping out of the European energy grid directly threatens stable power generation in Europe, primarily in Germany, which has embarked on a policy of abandoning nuclear energy. The degree of Germany's current energy dependence on Russia is uncomfortable for Germany, and it has been looking for ways to get rid of it for years. To do this with the help of Ukraine seems to be not very successful so far, no one promised that it would be easy.

I suppose we can look longer-term, because it seems likely that no-one for the foreseeable future is going to want to make themselves dependent on Russian exports. In which case, longer-term, and the context of countries gradually weaning themselves off fossil fuels, and demand reducing, then the Middle-East wouldn't need to increase supply, just reduce the rate at which they decreased it... which I'm sure they'd all be eager to do.

Please, read the posts before saying something stupid, Putin's intention is NOT to develop and use those resources, is about preventing the West to develop those resources and raise the Ukrainian economy to the level it should be.

I don't think there is any natural resource in Ukraine that Russia would not have enough of. The gas elephant theory is completely out of whack.

Russians despise Chechens. Putin supports and subsidizes the regime just because it is a tamper against Daesh and the possible revolts in a country full of arms. As usual, mutual interest, nothing like admiration or fraternity.

And now, have you anything to add on regards to Putin's intentions to seize the wealth of Ukraine or are you going to rant about homosexuality and nazis as usual?

Isn't the overall position of the Middle East on this issue clear enough? Their answer is "no". The Middle East greatly strengthened its pro-Russian position after the Russian operation in Syria, then the Russians showed the whole world well that they did not abandon their allies even in an extremely difficult situation, when few believed in the ability of the Syrian government to stay in power.

Rumor has it that Arab sheikhs are also very impressed by the participation of a Muslim regiment from Chechnya in the current operation in Ukraine and their media coverage in Kadyrov's telegram. I admit it is rather strange for me to hear exclamations of "Allah Akbar!" from the Russian side, but to strengthen Russia's position in the Middle East, this is a strong move.

No need for sorry, happy to see other views. OPEC+ (+ means plus Russia) mostly regulate the flow of crude to maximise the profit, but at the same time the budgets of these countries need to be balanced and that requires certain prices and certain quotas. There is more than enough capacity in the Middle East and other exporting zones to fill Russia's gap indeed, a different question is if they would.

Maybe, yes, sorry. But if Russia is an international pariah and no-one is buying their oil, there must be a chance that the Saudis and the others would just produce more to fill the gap. I know they have agreements about how much they can produce, but agreements can be revised, and often are if money is at stake.

Russia is not interested in putting into production the gas reserves of Ukraine, is just quite mad about the EU actually being able to use them and break any strategic energy dependence from Russia. Also, that would drive the economic growth of Ukraine, who, in the Russian collective mind is "inferior" and raise many doubts about the system.

There has been a gaseous elephant in Putin's plans for some years, but I'm not sure the invasion is about Ukrainian resources... just because Russia has its own vast reserves, which will likely open up and become more accessible as the climate warms. Obviously his invasion is not going as smoothly as he would have envisaged, but still, he must have been aware that under any invasion scenario, there would be repercussions including the west trying to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

the aggression started the moment when the maidan mob touched the rightfully elected president of ukraine and put later zelinski in power, everything else is an aftermath,

jewish thinking that they are allowed to do stuff like that in such a violent way is a big issue that caused it.

i pray for ukranians and russians, but for ukranians especially to rid themselves of the woke ideology that is creating this brotherly war.

I've never believed the war to be anything than a quick land grab. War has always been like that, it's about resources/location, like America's wars in the Middle East. Isn't most of these deposits in the separatist regions? At least I remember that Mariupol is majority Russian and is near Donetsk.

There's just so many at prizes for Russia that made it worth the risk of sanctions and possible military actions (which so far hasn't happened) with all these resources and pushing the border to more defensible area that I was surprised it took this long for them to actually invade. 

There is a Gaseous Elephant in Putin's aggression. We may be looking at the real reason for this war.

https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/


Yet Ukraine, lacking the investment and expertise to kickstart the production is actually a gas importer. This is an open field for Western investment with clear strategic repercussions on the status quo in the zone. It clearly holds the potential for Europe to find an alternative supply to Putin's Russia export and a new frontier for productive investment by the doors of the EU.

It is curious how Putin has detected several points in which to start his "demilitarisation - denazification - de-druggificaiton or whatever" and, what a coincidence you may say, these locations are:

- Kyiv - The government.
- Mariupol - The best industrial port in the south
- Mykolaiv & Zaporizhia - The best steel industry.
- The Dniper region - Iron ore galore.
- Black and Azov seas - gas fields
- The Dniper river (Crimea has no water without it).

And what is now going to be the main fighting area, the recently discovered gas & oil fields in the Dniper basin (2010).

This is very likely the target for the next movement of Putin's army, yet trying to conquer and hold is going to be terrible for Ukraine, but may also very well end the status of Putin's Russia a regional power and their stance in the world. A high stakes game for Putin, not a game at all unfortunately for the people who have to live it.