Topic: The Great Bitcoin Rally of 2016 (Read 4941 times)

Of course, otherwise people would hover agree with negative interest rates, but if you just make the option to go cash unavailable than they have no choice but to comply.

That's how government and banks keep fucking everybody over, they make changes that appear to be good to steer everyone in a position they don't want to be in, but they never realize it until it's too late.

I am not sure you understand what conservative means! 
I would put a VERY conservative estimate at $200 for the end of 2017.  I expect that it will be higher and $14k is not impossible, if unlikely.

I get that you will say that if just 5% of the Chinese move just 2% of their money into bitcoin then... but that is very speculative, not conservative

I can see your point of view from that perspective.  However, I'm taking into account other things going on in our world economy that may create flight from FIAT into crypto.  2016 is only the beginning of a massive pump to last for several years to come.

EDIT:  I can see $14,000 per BTC by end of 2017 quite easily.  [That's being VERY conservative IMO].

FOMO is nothing compared to FOLOF (Fear Of Losing On Fiat).  Many will seek to hedge potential losses from their own currency devaluing by purchasing crypto.  We could have as many as 100,000,000 Chinese purchase bitcoin by end of 2017.

In percentage terms, the rise in 2017 could be lower than the 2016. In 2016, the price could triple, in 2017, it could only double.

Yes, it does.  However, I believe 2017 will make 2016 look like playing poker at the kiddy table.

That is a good rally. But the pace is too fast. If it rises 10% a month, I will not be too worried about the performance.

Yeah definitely. Bitcoin can be the perfect currency in a cashless, virtual society. We need a replacement for chunky people of gold and silver somehow, and the answer lies in Bitcoin in my opinion.

The party has just started boys

The revolution has begun! Yeehaw. 

("The Great Bitcoin Rally of 2016" has a nice ring to it.)

I will just watch and see what will happen to bitcoin, if it suddenly comes to a fall ill try to sell before a great fall. After the great fall I will buy then wait for a new rally in price. 

What a prediction, lol. Thinking back I should have taken everyone's advice more seriously and bought all that I could instead of only buying with a portion of my income. Now I'm regretting.

But a great rallying happening right now. Go BTC!

China is leading for sure. Just look at the price there! It's like November 2013 where the price is only going up and up. Every time you think this is the top, the price will demolish that price level and continue to go up. It's insane!

Nah, 90%+ of the buying is coming from China.

Very close to reach the max. level on marketcap  happened on Dec  2013   wich was aprox.13.5B , but still lack the enormous sum of 3B.

2500 times higher with just 100 million users?

that seems really unlikely, I'm very positive about bitcoin and  believe the price will skyrocket at some point, especially once adoption grows, but 2500 times? That's an awful lot.

this will happen soon, and it has already started.
especially after the price rise up untill now there will be a lot more attention from people and the media to bitcoin and all of that will bring more investors in.
and if there is a big rise then there will be even more attention and media coverage which will bring much more people in.

It is possible for the user number to be 50 million in 4 years if there are good main stream media exposure.

In theory, it could be true. But it is not easy to achieve. The number of user can be no more than 10 million.

100 million users in 2020 is 50 times of the present value. So the price will be 2500 times higher then.

10 million isn't even remotely close to mass adoption.


Bitcoin is somewhere between 1 and 5 million users right now, so at the very beginning of that chart.

If we grow at a rate similar to facebook, we should have 100 million users by 2020. and close to a billion in 2024.

Now what do you think that would do to demand, and price?

I hear that the effect of the network effect is that the price is the square of the number of users. So if the number of users is increased to 10 million, the price is 400 times higher.

It depends on the mass adoption. If more than 10 million people use the bitcoin regularly, $100,000 is achievable.

by 2020 we should be at around $100,000 if not more

The price of $1000 could be reached after very big good news. The $5000 is the price for 2020.

i generally say that any price over $1000-$2000 is hard to reach and will require more than 6 months and also any price above $5000 is impossible to reach. because 5K will require a lot of adoption alone and above that gets lower chance.
and in the end any huge number for price like 10K or 50K in this case is just numbers with no reality to them.

it will happen.

huge rallies cause the price to overshoot and then a large correction happens, but it will always end up being higher in the end.

what you fail to understand is that bitcoin is LIMITED and therefore the only thing that actually is impossible is for the price to stay this low.

assuming bitcoin will be adopted by more users it means the price will have to go up. And not by just $50 either.

More like by 100x at least.

Even $700~$800 is way too low.

Next rally will go to ~$3000 at least, but more likely $5000

If there is one after that (most likely in 2017) expect to see 5 digits (40~50k)

it's inevitable.

Imagine 30 million people (and 30 million people is not a lot on over 7 billion people worthwide) all want to buy 1 bitcoin for $500. We won't have enough bitcoin. So they will have to bid higher and higher. The 'poorer' people will have to live with less than 1 bitcoin.

I can not stress this enough:

the average amount of bitcoin people will have is less than 0.003 bitcoin

so therefore, 1 bitcoin has to be an INSANE amount of money. and $50k is just the start. f you think otherwise, basically you're saying bitcoin will never be used by more than ~10 million people. And that's an even more insane prediction than the ones i am making.

Just because you lack logic and mathematical skills doesn't make me delusional. I base my predication on math and logic, you base your predictions on what your 'feelings' tell you is 'right'




less than 1 month is all it took to go from ~$230 to ~$1200

yes it crashed back to $900 or so, but still, you guys seem to forgot this ever happened and seem to claim it's impossible.

well guess what, the impossible already happened 3 times and it's about to happen again.

also, red the red part.

What da f thats to much prediction for you men,  bitcoins price didnt really reach for that price as you mentioned and I see the biggest price reached by bitcoin in history is at 1k$ and follows by big crash hope it will not happen for this time, but for predicting bitcoin will reach to 50000 thats a lot of zero for predictinng and very imposible to happen and manny money tO invest so the price will go to that,  but the nearly prediction price is @ 700-800$ mark by that it can be decent and true to come prediction and we can say safe zone for bitcoin to avoid big crash

50k! It is incredible the great enthusiasm that a little rally (only 10% of its previous price) can generate. Tomorrow, when its price returns to $450, this optimism will disappear and everyone will be predicting a drop to $100.

seems the chinese know pretty damn well about bitcoin

they have $30 trillion to throw at it.

They don't even need 1% of that.

Bitcoin can't stay this cheap forever, there just isn't enough bitcoin for all of us to own 100 bitcoins. something has to give.

Either adoption crawls to a stop or the price goes through the roof (and with through the roof i mean $100,000+)

It's one or the other, there's no other way.

So which do you think it will be?

Signs are hinting at adoption continuing and therefore in my opinion the most likely outcome is that we will see 4 or 5 digits pretty soon.

That would require a mountain of real people to suddenly throw vast amounts of their hard earned money at something almost all of them still know zero about.

Theories and fractals and friends are all well and good but don't play along with the real world.

I expect a rally right now, and a second rally somewhere in 2017 (probably Q1 2017)

if it turns out as predicted, $50000 by march 2017 would be plausible.

Yes, However is always the possibility of things are different, ie occurs first.

New ATH 2016 ^®™

Dat ascending triangle though mang.

this time it is different^TM

Currently it is not the rally, but the price is ging up and down with a slow speed, and we can notice that within two weeks the price go down to $440 and then start to rise up to $465, (a great benefit for the traders and can earn a big amount as the rise and fall are confirmed), but we hope that the stage of fall will stop sooner and it will start to rise and rise.

When the big whales accumulate enough, they will push the price higher and make great profit from it.

So far, there is no great rally. The price is trading within a tight range. The whales are still accumulating.

How come something happening 10 months later can be linked with the price action?
Bitcoin has overall merely 7 years of history, that is 84 months. 10 months is a very long time for Bitcoin.
That way we can claim almost anything, also that bear market that lasted 18 months (2014-15) is a consequence of halving. Why not?!

In the last halving, the rally happned 10 months after the halving. So the rally could happen in 2017.

I mostly don't look at Coinbase at all, but I will do it from now on. I like the fact that exchanges where people don't expect much from when it comes to leading a price increase, are now surprising people. And the best thing of all is that China wasn't the one leading this time. They were several Dollars behind all the time. I want growth to come from several places around the world and not only from China. And that has happened this time.

This rally was led by Coinbase - the reason I say that it was several dollars higher than all other exchanges for most of this rally. Coinbase is the main way new people buy bitcoins, at least here in the states. It certainly surprised me this happened - and now that they take debit cards for instant purchases we might see more of these rallys as it just got easier to buy - before, you needed a credit card on your account to purchase instantly.

I would like to know from where do you get the impression that new money is driving the price up. I can't find anything that makes me see a difference between new money and money already in the market.

The rally has not started. It is still in the consolidation stage. The rose to $470 and dropped to $440 again.

Really if we watch the price keep in the same levels than Dec 15, However is a good signal especially considering the pressure of the last months over  BTC, So the 2016 Rally must be at least begin in $470-$480 or even $500 as minimum for the most demanding,  Below that is just heating step.

Coinbase is leading this rally. 

Probably the most telling sign that this is new money pumping the price, not just traders manipulating it.

day by day the prices has increase since several days ago and the current prices $451 at coindesk and seems yes i do agree with OP the rally has begun and i wish This is not just momentary and till halving bitcoin will reach $600 or above

in a thousand different ways
- last time bitcoin did not have this many users as it has today
- there are a lot more businesses and services accepting bitcoin today
- there are a lot more businesses and services planning on accepting bitcoin in the future (like steam)
- there is no mt.gox bot to fake the rise and bitcoin price has been growing normally with slow rise.
-.....


contact Webster dictionary:
going from $420 to $455 is called going downside.

Great Bitcoin Rally to the downside, yes.

Bitcoin (BTC) $452.24  1.14 %

brb, poison. muh Google -5.32%

In what way is this time different from the last rally?

Let's take what is ours gentlemen & rise towards new high's

It has already started back in 2015 but at some point it slowed down and caused the price to become quite stable. Right now it's just continuing where it stopped some time ago.

Please bitcoin, wait for me!

The price rise on small volume is a good sign (for buyers). The opposite is also true - a big drop on heavy volume.

I think there will be, at least, an uptrend for some weeks. Too many fundamentals looking good for a pump: halving gets nearer every day (and there are expectations, so there will also be buys), but for me it's more important that it seems that consensus is emerging that Segwit is the solution for the scalability issue. For now.

My guess is that the price will surpass 500 this time. It may stop between 600 and 800. Maybe even higher, but I don't expect a new ATH.

This is it! Block reward halving hype.

Rally has begun like OP has said, so for touch $500 it is possible achieved by the end of this month

If it is indeed a start, then it means we have much more ground to gain and make good profits if you have enough patience to keep holding.

I just wonder if we will be able to reach $500 next month. I think yes.

I don't know if this is already the rally everyone hopes to see this year.
But we are moving up and this is a good sign.
I also believe if we should rally this year it will be after the halving. I expect a delay of halving's effect.

it is happening anyways, it is slow rise but it is happening without a doubt. and i think the reason of the slow rise unlike last time is that it is a much bigger market now, there are a lot more investors that will slow the rise down and also there is no gox bot to fake anything, it is all real.

I think we cannot really know if this is it or not. Could be. People is expecting it and sometimes the expectations make people buy and produce what they are expecting. Lol.

I'm not convinced it's totally in the bag but perhaps I've been traumatised by the last few years. Any rise of any nature is welcome with me.

Woot

this time it is different. 

It has begun.