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Topic: The Great Reflation Is Underway (Read 911 times)

member
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July 23, 2018, 04:51:41 PM
#35
To supplement the original story:

Between the OP and today, Bitcoin has gone to $19K and come back down to $8K, and the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is still less than 10% of that of gold.

So the full reflation hasn't happened, yet.  But the elites have thought it wise to raise the value of Bitcoin by quite a bit, from the last stable value of about $300, to at least prepare for the reflation, if it should become necessary.
Your information is too good. I think so too.
Full inflation has not yet occurred.
As many sources have thought it wise to raise Bitcoin's value a bit, the job has changed, at least in preparation for inflation, if it is true. I need to be mindful.
hero member
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April 19, 2018, 06:36:52 AM
#34
This has already happened in history and led to the decline of Spain to the XVII century.

In the treasury of the empire, united by that time under the scepter of Charles I of Habsburg, golden rivers flowed. The treasures brought from Mexico and Peru by the conquistadors made the country fantastically rich. This period has gone down in history as Siglo de Oro - the Golden Age of Spain.

If at the end of the XV century in Castile was the most successful sheep in Europe, wine cultivation flourished in Andalusia, and in Toledo - weapons business, then by the 16th century Spanish peasants and artisans could not only not sell their produce outside Spain, competition within the country.

By the end of the sixteenth century, the price of bread had risen fivefold, and the general level of prices in the Spanish state had increased fourfold. The servants of the king, who received a salary from the treasury and had no connections with the colonies, immediately became impoverished. In addition, all economically active subjects of the corona rushed to the colony for easy profit.

Thanks for the info.  This goes to show gold is nothing more than another form of money.  When the quantity of money in circulation increases, the price of everything goes up.

The difference between physical gold and fiat money, though, is that fiat is issued by humans who have an incentive to maximize the issuance.  (And yes, the issuers are destroying their own system in the long run.)  The supply of gold is harder to control.

The central problem with the Spanish (and for that matter all later global empires: the Dutch, British, and now the American) Empire is that the value of money and debt were not determined by the market but artificially propped up by imperial power.  This created perverse incentives for the elites (see above) and also distorted all production and price levels, so that once the imperial power collapsed from issuing too much money/debt, people couldn't make a living any more, because production capacity had been driven artificially high during the financial bubble.
newbie
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April 19, 2018, 02:05:07 AM
#33
Money, debt, and finance can get as complicated as you want.  But they can also be stunningly simple when looked at the right way.  And I like simple.
 
...
Imagine late 19th century central banks suddenly receiving a lot of gold from heaven, and you have almost the right picture.  Just that they have to first convince the public that this is gold.
...


This has already happened in history and led to the decline of Spain to the XVII century.

In the treasury of the empire, united by that time under the scepter of Charles I of Habsburg, golden rivers flowed. The treasures brought from Mexico and Peru by the conquistadors made the country fantastically rich. This period has gone down in history as Siglo de Oro - the Golden Age of Spain.

If at the end of the XV century in Castile was the most successful sheep in Europe, wine cultivation flourished in Andalusia, and in Toledo - weapons business, then by the 16th century Spanish peasants and artisans could not only not sell their produce outside Spain, competition within the country.

By the end of the sixteenth century, the price of bread had risen fivefold, and the general level of prices in the Spanish state had increased fourfold. The servants of the king, who received a salary from the treasury and had no connections with the colonies, immediately became impoverished. In addition, all economically active subjects of the corona rushed to the colony for easy profit.
hero member
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April 18, 2018, 07:39:24 AM
#32
I think this will cause panic for the billionaires with the fear of getting more competition. it is undeniable that the movement of crypto price increase some percent is from the role of the middle class down. this will certainly make people upscale to enter the crypto activity because of course they want to get a bigger advantage of course this thing that will make the middle class down the more marginalized. of course there needs to be a counterweight in order to avoid too much inequality.

Yes, big inflation will expropriate a lot of holders of the wrong kinds of wealth.  (As I wrote, this is why big inflation is a last resort of the elites.)

I think it's hard to say which classes benefit the most.  When the rich buy cryptos as insurance against the possibility of the Great Reflation, they buy a lot, and in proportion to their current wealth.

As always, being rich allows you the privilege of diversifying your investments much better than those lower down the ladder.
member
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April 14, 2018, 06:20:11 PM
#31
Great thread! In our current economy, it was indeed controlled by elites because our economy is actually controlled by money that's why I called it ecomoney. What I know right now is that the value of money decrease a lot as I could only buy so much items for the amount of money I have. Thanks for the deep view about inflation and reflation, first time I encounter the word relation. Thanks.
hero member
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March 27, 2018, 12:02:56 PM
#30
To supplement the original story:

Between the OP and today, Bitcoin has gone to $19K and come back down to $8K, and the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is still less than 10% of that of gold.

So the full reflation hasn't happened, yet.  But the elites have thought it wise to raise the value of Bitcoin by quite a bit, from the last stable value of about $300, to at least prepare for the reflation, if it should become necessary.
hero member
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October 16, 2017, 07:38:07 AM
#29
...

BobK71 just wrote:

"As I wrote in other posts, this will unfortunately be a multi-century struggle.  The only true cure is public awareness, but the corruption is deep and impossible for most people to see, and the system is good at distributing the 'benefits' around to keep a lot of people content and quiet."

I had never seen this idea expressed like that.  The truest words I have seen written in quite sometime.  Yes, it will take centuries because of public laziness and The Elite's excellent reading of what they can get away with.

Bitcoin has been one little escape hatch for many of us (here).  Those who never bought any BTC have lost even more financial ground as a result of the machinations by The Elite.


Thank you!

As reluctant as I am to see conspiracy where I don't have multiple pieces of evidence, it's hard to see the system as anything other than a highly organized and unified operation.  Why was the system so universally effective at enticing and forcing poor countries to borrow dollars, and productive countries to lend dollars?  (If you read 'Confessions of An Economic Hit Man.')  Who among the elites knew this was important?  How did the system understand enough to begin cultivating India as the next imperial bubble in the 90s?  All this takes coordination and long term planning.  I still hope I'm wrong at least to some degree.
legendary
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October 14, 2017, 11:47:34 AM
#28
...

BobK71 just wrote:

"As I wrote in other posts, this will unfortunately be a multi-century struggle.  The only true cure is public awareness, but the corruption is deep and impossible for most people to see, and the system is good at distributing the 'benefits' around to keep a lot of people content and quiet."

I had never seen this idea expressed like that.  The truest words I have seen written in quite sometime.  Yes, it will take centuries because of public laziness and The Elite's excellent reading of what they can get away with.

Bitcoin has been one little escape hatch for many of us (here).  Those who never bought any BTC have lost even more financial ground as a result of the machinations by The Elite.
hero member
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October 13, 2017, 11:27:05 AM
#27
I had to search the meaning of the word Reflation. Wiki:
Quote
Reflation is the act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes, seeking to bring the economy (specifically price level) back up to the long-term trend, following a dip in the business cycle.

My use of 'reflation' has a similar meaning but specifically refers to inflating away the debt in the system, so everything can start afresh.  (Some people call it the system reset.)  So I named it the 'great' reflation, as it will address the long-term imbalance between asset and real-economy prices built up since inflation was 'tamed' in the early 1980s.

While the European Central Bank largely increases the money supply, our national government (the Netherlands) has raised several taxes and increased the government's spending as a share of GDP since 2008. They also increased VAT, which further increases inflation. So they're doing one thing according to Wiki's definition, and the exact opposite on the other thing.

I'm not as familiar with Europe as with the US, but it's as I would expect -- just enough stimulus and redistribution to keep people from physically rebelling, but not enough to really reset the system and have a chance at re-igniting growth -- hence the seemingly contradictory rhetoric and actions on both sides of the Atlantic.

The classic 'good' solution is to drive inflation while letting gold go up, but apparently they are afraid of that, for now.

As a family with some savings, we don't need inflation. ECB is still printing enough money to slowly inflate away savings, banks give very low interests, taxes on savings alone are 5 to 30 times higher than the interest the bank pays. We don't have a capital gain tax, which is very beneficial if you're rich and own a lot of assets, but the common man sees his savings slowly evaporate.
Slowly eating away savers' wealth has been a hallmark of the modern system.  If you are, naturally, concerned with the moral implications, then, truly 'you ain't seen nothing yet.'  As bad as it is, it is among the more benign side effects of elite controlled money.  The worse ones include deflation, manipulation of the mass media regarding international affairs, conflict and war.

So what can we do to change this?

As I wrote in other posts, this will unfortunately be a multi-century struggle.  The only true cure is public awareness, but the corruption is deep and impossible for most people to see, and the system is good at distributing the 'benefits' around to keep a lot of people content and quiet.

Remember that the US itself started as a rebellion against the British-led global system run by its state-bank alliance.  It was enlightened enough to kill its central bank twice, keep up the trade barriers through most of the 19th century, and defeat the British-backed attack on its integrity during the Civil War.  A big, strong economy that stands firmly outside the world system is the biggest conceivable threat to that system.  (And gloriously so, if you ask me.)  But what happened?  Without popular understanding, all that was for nothing.  Britain was able to co-opt American elites, and in a few decades the US became the *heir* to the head of that system.

The struggle will be long but worth it, if anything is worth anything.  One key, I think is to explain money and finance in a way most people will understand.
hero member
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October 10, 2017, 08:05:44 AM
#26
This is all by design.  The modern system is designed to take wealth automatically from savers, to push them into risky assets, so they help sustain all the asset bubbles that benefit the elites.

Very interesting point. I question sometimes how deeply such a design may run.

I'll try to give you a real world example. In the united states many american families pride themselves on kicking their kids out of the house when they turn 18. In foreign countries, this trend is often non-existent. Young adults live with their parents well past adulthood and it may be fair to say there isn't the same negative stigma against this trend found in the USA.

Here's where things might get interesting. Americans have social security. Foreigners often lack an equivalent. In practice this could imply foreigners lacking a pension/retirement plan, rely more heavily upon their children to care of them when they get old. Wheras in the united states parents might believe they don't need to have a decent relationship with or do a decent job raising their kids believing they don't need their family to be there for them in old age as they have social security.

If it is true that elites have designed a system to divide society, break up communities and families to an extent to prevent people from uniting or coordinating effectively. Is it possible that even things like social security were engineered with an intent to divide the family unit under an illusion that the state & social security will provide for people, degrading families and communities in some subtle way?

This is very interesting.  While the weakening of human relationships is a profoundly tragic outcome that I believe is directly associated with elite-controlled money, I'm still hoping and thinking that this one is not intentional.

The modern system, at the center (like the UK in its heyday and the US today,) is two-faced.  For the tiny number of top elites, we have huge state-sponsored benefits.  For everyone and everything else, the system seeks to make free markets run as far as possible.  After all, you need a smooth-running economy to make the world trust your debt.  What this does is to make as many things into commodities as possible, making money more powerful than it is in traditional society.  When money can buy almost everything, you don't need people as much.  Even in old age, you can have almost everything you need, with money.

So the weakening of family bonds occurs as part of the weakening of all human bonds.  As for the social safety nets, my belief is that they were started as part of the alliance between the politicians and voters to jointly benefit from issuing money and debt.  These programs were started after the Great Depression and into the 70s, since bankers were blamed for the Great Depression.  After the debts had run too high, by he 80s, the bankers were back at the center of the winning alliance.

Public old-age benefits are also an effective, but artificial, way to encourage people to take risks while they're working.  This also helps to inflate and sustain asset bubbles.  (Social Security benefits are not high: if that's all you have, it's a pretty poor existence.)

I'm a believer in free markets.  Without the distortions of imperial state money, I think we would have a lesser material life, but would be happier.  Our economic growth would be slower but in step with our growth as human beings in relationship with each other.  This might be the ultimate reason why the fight against elite-controlled money is worthwhile.
sr. member
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October 07, 2017, 10:36:06 AM
#25
I think this will cause panic for the billionaires with the fear of getting more competition. it is undeniable that the movement of crypto price increase some percent is from the role of the middle class down. this will certainly make people upscale to enter the crypto activity because of course they want to get a bigger advantage of course this thing that will make the middle class down the more marginalized. of course there needs to be a counterweight in order to avoid too much inequality.
sr. member
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October 07, 2017, 10:14:19 AM
#24
If the so called elites are buying bitcoin instead of banning it, it just makes already rich bitcoin whales (which have pro-crypto agendas) richer. The amount of BTC they would need to buy is simply too high.

They can't do that much beyond causing price crashes with bans, and we already saw how that played out for China. We are about to hit an all time high after China basically banned all exchanges, think about that again.

All they can do with bans is temporal price crashes which will get bought up again, restoring confidence since the more times bitcoin resurges after bans, the less effective said bans are. This is why the market has not reacted at all at the South Korean ICO ban and Swiss ICO ban. Once you do it once, the next time is not interesting for the market, so the next time exchanges are banned somewhere else, it will be the same. You simply can't stop this at this point, pandora's box has been opened. Get in and get yourself a strong bitcoin position or be lefit behind, no other options.
Reflation is necessary. It is so important for the next rise of bitcoin. Just suppose a condition, everyone is buying bitcoins and nothing is wrong about it.

Prices don’t go down and they are just jumping up and up. So do you believe that in that ideal condition there would be chances of more fame of bitcoin? Definitely no, for the downs and ups are the beauty of business.
legendary
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October 07, 2017, 09:34:02 AM
#23
I had to search the meaning of the word Reflation. Wiki:
I totally understand, 9 long years after the global financial crisis, the elites just can't seem to get inflation going.  Every time there's any sign of it, the hope is quickly crushed.

Or so they say...  The truth is that the elites can *always* get inflation if they want it.  All they have to do is print money and issue public debt until they get the inflation.  So it's a matter of 'won't' rather than 'can't.'
As a family with some savings, we don't need inflation. ECB is still printing enough money to slowly inflate away savings, banks give very low interests, taxes on savings alone are 5 to 30 times higher than the interest the bank pays. We don't have a capital gain tax, which is very beneficial if you're rich and own a lot of assets, but the common man sees his savings slowly evaporate.

We'll see high inflation for a while, but probably lower in the US than in Europe and Japan.  We'll also see good job and economic growth, and lots of stimulus and redistribution to the poor from governments and central banks to keep social tension low.
This leads to the poor being okay, the rich being okay, and the middle class paying the bills.

Your post was very quickly buried by spammers inhabiting this section.
I like reading BobK71's point of view, but indeed, it barely pops up without actively searching for his posts.

What this system is not is a true free market.

This is all by design.  The modern system is designed to take wealth automatically from savers, to push them into risky assets, so they help sustain all the asset bubbles that benefit the elites.
So what can we do to change this? I see this happen around me indeed. The low savings interest, high tax, and increasing inflation forces people towards risky investments with money they can't afford to lose.
The one difference we have in recent times, is much more free information. But most people (me included) don't get much further than watching the occasional documentary about it, agreeing to what I just watched, and going on with my life because I can't change it.

Is it possible that even things like social security were engineered with an intent to divide the family unit under an illusion that the state & social security will provide for people, degrading families and communities in some subtle way?
Social security is meant to keep people in line: give them enough not to protest, and enough to keep make them depend on the system so they don't attack the system.
legendary
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October 06, 2017, 03:55:06 PM
#22
This is all by design.  The modern system is designed to take wealth automatically from savers, to push them into risky assets, so they help sustain all the asset bubbles that benefit the elites.

Very interesting point. I question sometimes how deeply such a design may run.

I'll try to give you a real world example. In the united states many american families pride themselves on kicking their kids out of the house when they turn 18. In foreign countries, this trend is often non-existent. Young adults live with their parents well past adulthood and it may be fair to say there isn't the same negative stigma against this trend found in the USA.

Here's where things might get interesting. Americans have social security. Foreigners often lack an equivalent. In practice this could imply foreigners lacking a pension/retirement plan, rely more heavily upon their children to care of them when they get old. Wheras in the united states parents might believe they don't need to have a decent relationship with or do a decent job raising their kids believing they don't need their family to be there for them in old age as they have social security.

If it is true that elites have designed a system to divide society, break up communities and families to an extent to prevent people from uniting or coordinating effectively. Is it possible that even things like social security were engineered with an intent to divide the family unit under an illusion that the state & social security will provide for people, degrading families and communities in some subtle way?
hero member
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October 05, 2017, 10:46:44 PM
#21
There is a certain amount to be said for owning revenue generating property in whatever guise it comes. If that is in the form of fiat money that inflates away over time in a predictabe way that works, the tricky part is when confidence is lost - see Zimbabwe for example. BTC is not immune from crisis in confidence either, but the benefit it does have is transparent operation and supply. Nobody can suddenly introduce another 21,000,000 out of a hat.

Real land, goods producing companies and factories, and service companies are also good bets.

Investing in 'real' assets might be fine if the price and timing are right, but the demand for most goods and services is inflated at the outset by the economy-wide distortions caused by the issuance of state money.  Much of the economy is based on serving the whims of the lucky, so both instability and inequality are constant features.

What this system is not is a true free market.

This is all by design.  The modern system is designed to take wealth automatically from savers, to push them into risky assets, so they help sustain all the asset bubbles that benefit the elites.
hero member
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October 05, 2017, 02:05:36 PM
#20
It is never that far away and it will always happen, well for quite some time. People follow the rumors and the fear and drop and run, but not the big boys and not the ones that make the markets hum, that is where the price gets most of its power and it is a great thing. No need to worry, speed bumps here and there and the rest is smooth sailing.

Yeah, it seems to be the pattern that the price goes up a lot, then drops sharply but is still much higher than the last stable level.  Then it sits there for a while before repeating the cycle.
hero member
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October 05, 2017, 12:13:56 PM
#19
I have no idea how big the role the Elite plays in Bitcoin, but I do accept the idea that they are buying it on a larger sale than is realized.

The major signs I see of elite promotion of cryptos are:

- The price rise.  This speaks volumes when the elites could have killed it with laws.

- The unknown buyer of cryptos shelling out $60 million at a time, over months.  What private entity would put that kind of funds at risk?

- The BIS ('central bank of central banks') recent release of the 'new taxonomy of money' where state money is no longer solely legitimate as today's economists like to say.  Instead, a plethora of monetary forms are recognized, including precious metals and cryptos.  Most significantly, it states that state-issued cryptos won't compete with non-state cryptos by trying to be limited-supply.

- In the political sphere, the disappearance of talk about Bitcoin being a crime-enabler and the need to tighten control over it.  The appearance (in a small way) of proposals to help cryptos.

- The SEC's quick response to the need to control the proliferation of ICOs.

- Between an essay by an ex-central-banker from South Africa and the ECB's recent announcement, it's pretty clear that the Western elites are going to adopt the narrative that cryptos' rise is simply due to market demand, and that authorities won't and shouldn't interfere.  This sounds morally impeccable, but is highly misleading as a description of reality.  Of course, it will benefit cryptos.
hero member
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October 04, 2017, 08:17:42 AM
#18
If the so called elites are buying bitcoin instead of banning it, it just makes already rich bitcoin whales (which have pro-crypto agendas) richer. The amount of BTC they would need to buy is simply too high.

They can't do that much beyond causing price crashes with bans, and we already saw how that played out for China. We are about to hit an all time high after China basically banned all exchanges, think about that again.

All they can do with bans is temporal price crashes which will get bought up again, restoring confidence since the more times bitcoin resurges after bans, the less effective said bans are. This is why the market has not reacted at all at the South Korean ICO ban and Swiss ICO ban. Once you do it once, the next time is not interesting for the market, so the next time exchanges are banned somewhere else, it will be the same. You simply can't stop this at this point, pandora's box has been opened. Get in and get yourself a strong bitcoin position or be lefit behind, no other options.

China and (to a lesser extent) Russia trying to ban Bitcoin and other cryptos will play right into the hands of the Western elites, if cryptos succeed.  These countries are financial as well as geopolitical adversaries of the West, as evidenced by their support for gold and 'de-dollarization.'  They'll just lose crypto wealth.

Why they would shoot themselves in the foot is harder to understand.  I have a theory that, money and finance being hard for political leaders to understand, central bankers really make the decisions.  But central bankers around the world might somehow work as a united front to support the countries at the top of their system. Napoleon complained how French bankers undermined their own country in favor of Britain.  It's only a theory.

This might be why, during late-19th-century, even though Britain and a rising Germany became bitter imperial rivals, Germany's central bank joined others to lend gold to bail out the Bank of England in the financial crisis of 1890.

An major example of CBs NOT cooperating was post-World-War-I France, where the Banque de France worked only for the benefit of France, devalued the franc and redeemed its paper sterling reserves for gold.  France attracted gold, investments, growth and demand, and became the best-performing and most stable economy prior to the Great Depression.  But it's also argued, from the point of view of the global elites, that 1920s French policy caused a major fracture in the global system and was one of the major contributors to the onset of the Great Depression.
hero member
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October 03, 2017, 08:47:49 PM
#17

I find parts of your post really interesting, as it's an eloquent statement of ideas I've been thinking about for a long time, particularly the idea of the accumulation of "wealth" being more of a concept than an actuality, and also being necessary to keep prices stable. However, where I would differ from you is that you seem to view this as a conspiratorial conceit that's been implemented, and not the natural state that arises in a large group of self-interested and rational economic actors looking to create stability. Also consider that so much "wealth" is in the form of debt, which is just an expectation of future wealth. When the goods and services underwriting that debt are realized, the debt can be serviced. When they are not, the debt gets written off and that money essentially disappears from the economy. I think the default of debt is a natural way the system prunes itself and helps to prevent money creation from running away on itself, although that's not to say it makes it impossible. But I don't see crypto playing in to your idea at all, or being part of a concerted effort to game the monetary system by the "elites." 

Thank you.  It's nice to hear compliments from what is clearly a thoughtful response.

As you imply, under a free market, the pricing, repayment and/or default of debt would be a naturally healthy process where certain investments just didn't work out.  Unfortunately, this is actually what the modern world system prevents from happening, at the core of the system.

The modus operandi of the system is to use state power to under-price credit risk, and thus prop up financial asset values to benefit the top politicians and bankers who issue the assets.  The distortion at the core spreads across the entire system, and the incentives for individual members of the elites are almost always to destabilize their own system.  It's no wonder that financial crisis always seems to come back, despite all the apparent studying by economists.

But the financial and economic problems are only half the story.  The other half are the imperial machinations, including regime changes and wars, ultimately for propping up the monetary and other assets issued by the empire and its allies.  If you need a smoking-gun proof of probable actual conspiracy (as opposed to a naturally-forming exploitative system,) there's an insider's account by John Perkins called 'Confessions of An Economic Hit Man.'

It's a good question whether an honest, ie truly free-market, system is possible, given current human awareness.  I would like not to overthink these deeper questions, as there are only theories and no answers at this level.  I'd like to give justice a try, and if I give up, I'd like to make absolutely sure I'm not really giving up for such reasons as expediency.  Like I said, nobody knows, so why not give it a fight.
legendary
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October 03, 2017, 01:58:31 PM
#16
Money, debt, and finance can get as complicated as you want.  But they can also be stunningly simple when looked at the right way.  And I like simple.
 
Basically, you have real wealth and financial wealth.  Real wealth is made up of goods, services, infrastructure, knowledge, etc.  Financial wealth is the various tickets that are claims on real wealth: money, bonds, stocks, derivatives, etc.
 
Over the modern centuries, top politicians and bankers have tended to issue too much financial wealth for the real wealth available.  To prevent a collapse of savers' confidence in the financial wealth, power and deception are used to prop up its value.  One of the favorites is somehow to keep the price of goods and services low by concentrating financial wealth.  As long as not all the dollars chase goods at the same time, all the saved dollars can appear to be still valuable.
 
At this point, the elites can play all kinds of tricks to keep this game afloat, for a while, but ultimately, the only way to true stability is to let prices rise.  When prices go up, the values of the financial wealth and real wealth will be more equal.  Real faith will return to the financial wealth, and the elites can go back to issuing more of it without worry.
 
The only problem with inflation, though, is that the public will lose faith in state-issued money.  This is the reason why the elites have tried not to resort to inflation until the last possible minute.  Helicopter money hasn't come, yet.

Enter cryptocurrencies.  If the elites can get the public to believe in crypto as a decentralized, limited-quantity money, then they can feel free to create inflation by issuing more money and debt: the normally embarrassing depreciation of state-issued money against non-state-issued money as a result of the inflation will be described by central banks and the media as free-market demand for a new type of money.  Crypto will help limit the demand for gold and silver, whose appreciation will be embarrassing.  And the state-issued money will be stable at the new 'exchange rate,' since the elites are likely buying up many bitcoins now to prepare for future suppression of Bitcoin's rise.

Imagine late 19th century central banks suddenly receiving a lot of gold from heaven, and you have almost the right picture.  Just that they have to first convince the public that this is gold.

This being a perfect play for the elites, plus the many observations in support of this story in recent months and years, we really have to consider the good chance that the Great Reflation is underway as we speak.


I find parts of your post really interesting, as it's an eloquent statement of ideas I've been thinking about for a long time, particularly the idea of the accumulation of "wealth" being more of a concept than an actuality, and also being necessary to keep prices stable. However, where I would differ from you is that you seem to view this as a conspiratorial conceit that's been implemented, and not the natural state that arises in a large group of self-interested and rational economic actors looking to create stability. Also consider that so much "wealth" is in the form of debt, which is just an expectation of future wealth. When the goods and services underwriting that debt are realized, the debt can be serviced. When they are not, the debt gets written off and that money essentially disappears from the economy. I think the default of debt is a natural way the system prunes itself and helps to prevent money creation from running away on itself, although that's not to say it makes it impossible. But I don't see crypto playing in to your idea at all, or being part of a concerted effort to game the monetary system by the "elites." 
hero member
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October 03, 2017, 12:13:47 PM
#15
Interesting that you would call it that lol. I hear that it's a deflationary currency and will be balancing out the debt that is currently circulating in US dollars.

Well, think of gold.  Gold and silver are deflationary, right?   But for about 90% of the modern age, the elites didn't suppress, but used gold and silver to enhance their ability to issue promises that gave them their power and wealth.

You can use a state-free money to lend trust to your issued money, if the combination of how much you own, how much the state-free money is trusted, what the current exchange rates are, and how much debt you have outstanding is right.

In fact, it may well be that the 10% of modern history that used totally fiat money is the one that must be abandoned, from the elites' point of view.  Most economists have tried to praise fiat money (and remember they praised the gold standard, when that was in effect -- both times saying just what the elites want/wanted them to say.)  Ultimately, though, it may well be that the fiat experiment was doomed to fail from day one.

How do you get inflation, which you need, out of a deflationary money?  By changing the parameters of that combination above.  (Good chance Bitcoin will go up a lot!)
hero member
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October 03, 2017, 12:03:45 PM
#14

Your post was very quickly buried by spammers inhabiting this section. They appear to bury attempts at intelligent discussion here almost as if they receive a lifetime achievement award for it. I try to reply only to posts with less than 100 responses on pages 2, 3, 4, etc. That seems to help.

Interesting...
I think at the beginning of the state-driven financial inflation cycle in the united states around 1913 when income taxes were passed...  All americans were taxed @ 1% of income. The wealthy were taxed @ 6% of income.

That could explain why the beginning of inflation cycles are prosperous. As time passes and taxes are hiked 50% to 70% of income it has a strangling effect upon an economy and everyday life. There are massive diminishing returns for every $1 taxed.

Trump's initial proposal, reducing income taxes and the corporate tax may be the only opportunity we have to escape the state's insistence on attempting to tax its way into prosperity.

For sure, the beginning of the cycle is the most free-market and democracy based society.  (We want the world to lend us their money, right?)  Things go downhill from there, if not by design, then as a clear consequence of the design.


Here is an interesting piece done on that very topic, if you ever feel like reading.  Smiley

http://healthland.time.com/2011/10/19/how-economic-inequality-is-literally-making-us-sick/


Thank you.  That is good.  I too have a feeling happiness is related to being connected and trusted.  When you have a society whose core nature is deception, you can see how that might be a problem.


Good overview.

I don't understand why the wealthy bother monetizing their already impressive holdings. Many of them don't do seem to do much with the wealth they have other than buy overpriced junk.   Huh
hero member
Activity: 560
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October 03, 2017, 11:07:28 AM
#13
It is never that far away and it will always happen, well for quite some time. People follow the rumors and the fear and drop and run, but not the big boys and not the ones that make the markets hum, that is where the price gets most of its power and it is a great thing. No need to worry, speed bumps here and there and the rest is smooth sailing.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
October 01, 2017, 11:48:19 AM
#12
...

In my mind there is little doubt that The Elite want more and more.  And they can (and do) rig the system to their benefit.

I have no idea how big the role the Elite plays in Bitcoin, but I do accept the idea that they are buying it on a larger sale than is realized.

Yet, the Elite NEED the rest of us, if "they" destroy the 90% (as per rumors re "Georgia Guidestones"), then they lose their comfortable lives...

IMO the best we can do is to stay alert and diversified in our savings.  BTC has a real role to play, as does gold, among other investments.
legendary
Activity: 868
Merit: 1006
October 01, 2017, 11:05:50 AM
#11
If the so called elites are buying bitcoin instead of banning it, it just makes already rich bitcoin whales (which have pro-crypto agendas) richer. The amount of BTC they would need to buy is simply too high.

They can't do that much beyond causing price crashes with bans, and we already saw how that played out for China. We are about to hit an all time high after China basically banned all exchanges, think about that again.

All they can do with bans is temporal price crashes which will get bought up again, restoring confidence since the more times bitcoin resurges after bans, the less effective said bans are. This is why the market has not reacted at all at the South Korean ICO ban and Swiss ICO ban. Once you do it once, the next time is not interesting for the market, so the next time exchanges are banned somewhere else, it will be the same. You simply can't stop this at this point, pandora's box has been opened. Get in and get yourself a strong bitcoin position or be lefit behind, no other options.
full member
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September 30, 2017, 08:15:10 AM
#10
Interesting that you would call it that lol. I hear that it's a deflationary currency and will be balancing out the debt that is currently circulating in US dollars.
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1441
September 30, 2017, 05:36:24 AM
#9
Thank you for being a lone reply!  I'm not sure how I come across, but certainly my thinking is more nuanced than my writing in most cases, as you can only fit so much into something people will read.

Your post was very quickly buried by spammers inhabiting this section. They appear to bury attempts at intelligent discussion here almost as if they receive a lifetime achievement award for it. I try to reply only to posts with less than 100 responses on pages 2, 3, 4, etc. That seems to help.

Certainly financial wealth is not worthless.  At the beginning of the state-driven financial inflation cycle, it is, objectively speaking, usually quite conducive to growth and prosperity.  It's only gradually, as time goes on, that the distortions really kick in, requiring deception to keep the system afloat, and where these efforts become destructive.

I think at the beginning of the state-driven financial inflation cycle in the united states around 1913 when income taxes were passed...  All americans were taxed @ 1% of income. The wealthy were taxed @ 6% of income.

That could explain why the beginning of inflation cycles are prosperous. As time passes and taxes are hiked 50% to 70% of income it has a strangling effect upon an economy and everyday life. There are massive diminishing returns for every $1 taxed.

Trump's initial proposal, reducing income taxes and the corporate tax may be the only opportunity we have to escape the state's insistence on attempting to tax its way into prosperity.

It could be a version of that 'comparative advantage' thing...  The US does a good and cheap job at 'manufacturing' money and financial assets.  The emerging markets do so with real goods.  So they take our money and we take their goods.  This is classic 'free trade' and works as long as no one thinks about how much more financial wealth exists than real wealth, at current prices.

This has been the case throughout modern history.  Plus, the modern state-bank alliance is good at dividing the world public into groups and giving each an appropriate share of the loot, to keep them quiet.  The British and American populations were big beneficiaries at the early stages of their respective empires.  (And so are Bitcoin holders today!)

But, trust me, all of this 'benefit' will come back to bite the 'beneficiaries.'  Including members of the elites themselves.  There's got to be an immutable law somewhere, that says we lose happiness, the more we live apart from reality and from fairness with each other.  Of this, I can't spell out a proof, but I have a strong feeling this is the case.

Here is an interesting piece done on that very topic, if you ever feel like reading.  Smiley

Jamie Dimon may just be trying to cool the Bitcoin market a bit.  He said the same thing when Bitcoin was in the low hundreds.

The major signs I see of elite promotion of cryptos are:

- The price rise.  This speaks volumes when the elites could have killed it with laws.

- The unknown buyer of cryptos shelling out $60 million at a time, over months.  What private entity would put that kind of funds at risk?

- The BIS ('central bank of central banks') recent release of the 'new taxonomy of money' where state money is no longer solely legitimate as today's economists like to say.  Instead, a plethora of monetary forms are recognized, including precious metals and cryptos.  Most significantly, it states that state-issued cryptos won't compete with non-state cryptos by trying to be limited-supply.

- In the political sphere, the disappearance of talk about Bitcoin being a crime-enabler and the need to tighten control over it.  The appearance (in a small way) of proposals to help cryptos.

- The SEC's quick response to the need to control the proliferation of ICOs.

- Between an essay by an ex-central-banker from South Africa and the ECB's recent announcement, it's pretty clear that the Western elites are going to adopt the narrative that cryptos' rise is simply due to market demand, and that authorities won't and shouldn't interfere.  This sounds morally impeccable, but is highly misleading as a description of reality.  Of course, it will benefit cryptos.

Good overview.

I don't understand why the wealthy bother monetizing their already impressive holdings. Many of them don't do seem to do much with the wealth they have other than buy overpriced junk.   Huh

hero member
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September 29, 2017, 01:54:16 PM
#8
Reflation is hard to exist in the economy.

I totally understand, 9 long years after the global financial crisis, the elites just can't seem to get inflation going.  Every time there's any sign of it, the hope is quickly crushed.

Or so they say...  The truth is that the elites can *always* get inflation if they want it.  All they have to do is print money and issue public debt until they get the inflation.  So it's a matter of 'won't' rather than 'can't.'

So why such a low inflation?  The elites understand trust in their money is low after the financial crisis.  So they keep their stimulus as low as possible, so long as the economic pain doesn't threaten their power.  It has been this way since the dawn of the modern age.  When assets inflate, everyone benefits, and the elites most of all.  When assets crash, ordinary people suffer most.

The only way to have inflation but keep their monetary power is to have a one-time devaluation against gold (or whatever today's flexible, derivative-trading-based equivalent is.)  Their state money will be stable at the new price of gold, if they devalue big enough.  But the problem would be, of course, people will start thinking, if there is 'one-time', there might be a 'next-time' whether the elites want to or not.  So they won't want to devalue against gold except as a last resort.

But here come cryptocurrencies.  A 'devaluation' against cryptos can be sold as simply the emergence of a widely popular new money.  Then the elites can have their cake and eat it too.  As I said, it's a perfect plan.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
September 29, 2017, 09:10:09 AM
#7
There is a certain amount to be said for owning revenue generating property in whatever guise it comes. If that is in the form of fiat money that inflates away over time in a predictabe way that works, the tricky part is when confidence is lost - see Zimbabwe for example. BTC is not immune from crisis in confidence either, but the benefit it does have is transparent operation and supply. Nobody can suddenly introduce another 21,000,000 out of a hat.

Real land, goods producing companies and factories, and service companies are also good bets.
full member
Activity: 198
Merit: 100
September 29, 2017, 09:03:05 AM
#6
Which assets will do well *after* everyone knows about the reflation?

Obviously, bonds and cash will do poorly, unless you buy bonds when people are over-dumping them, and you hope for an end to the inflation soon.  Bank interest will go up.

Stocks and real estate should do well, as these represent a piece of limited-supply real wealth in a growing economy.

Bitcoin and gold will stagnate after reaching a very high value (very high at least in the case of Bitcoin.)  This is a major part of the final goal of the entire exercise, and this is probably what the elites will get.

Reflation is hard to exist in the economy. If it happens, as you mentioned, bonds and cash will be very very weak after all and people will be seeking another options. This is the BTC!
hero member
Activity: 2128
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September 29, 2017, 08:07:09 AM
#5
Which assets will do well *after* everyone knows about the reflation?

Obviously, bonds and cash will do poorly, unless you buy bonds when people are over-dumping them, and you hope for an end to the inflation soon.  Bank interest will go up.

Stocks and real estate should do well, as these represent a piece of limited-supply real wealth in a growing economy.

Bitcoin and gold will stagnate after reaching a very high value (very high at least in the case of Bitcoin.)  This is a major part of the final goal of the entire exercise, and this is probably what the elites will get.
hero member
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September 28, 2017, 05:21:58 PM
#4
So what will be the consequences of reflation?

We'll see high inflation for a while, but probably lower in the US than in Europe and Japan.  We'll also see good job and economic growth, and lots of stimulus and redistribution to the poor from governments and central banks to keep social tension low.

So, young and working people will do well.  Savers and retirees will lose a lot of their savings' value.  This should be expected from what is, essentially, a partial default on past debt via inflation.

The world should enjoy more peace, as the Western elites won't have much need to use conflicts and wars to make countries support their financial assets.

In a word, it will be the great reset.
hero member
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September 28, 2017, 09:06:32 AM
#3
There's a very human tendency to define conceptual abstracts in terms of polar inverse opposites.

Light and dark. Good and evil. Black and white. Love and hate. Moral and immoral.

Its not for me to say if your depiction of "real wealth" versus "financial wealth" fits into a dualistic abstract framework.

Thank you for being a lone reply!  I'm not sure how I come across, but certainly my thinking is more nuanced than my writing in most cases, as you can only fit so much into something people will read.

Certainly financial wealth is not worthless.  At the beginning of the state-driven financial inflation cycle, it is, objectively speaking, usually quite conducive to growth and prosperity.  It's only gradually, as time goes on, that the distortions really kick in, requiring deception to keep the system afloat, and where these efforts become destructive.

Many have said the united states has not had real economic growth in at least a decade. The rationalize circumstances such that the financial and real estate sectors growing do not represent true economic growth. Others view derivatives and overprinting of money as not representing real wealth or value. I think you might be on to something with "fake wealth" being redefined to represent "true wealth".

It could be a version of that 'comparative advantage' thing...  The US does a good and cheap job at 'manufacturing' money and financial assets.  The emerging markets do so with real goods.  So they take our money and we take their goods.  This is classic 'free trade' and works as long as no one thinks about how much more financial wealth exists than real wealth, at current prices.

There may be some misinformation campaigns in place to leverage a publics collective lack of knowledge and education.

This has been the case throughout modern history.  Plus, the modern state-bank alliance is good at dividing the world public into groups and giving each an appropriate share of the loot, to keep them quiet.  The British and American populations were big beneficiaries at the early stages of their respective empires.  (And so are Bitcoin holders today!)

But, trust me, all of this 'benefit' will come back to bite the 'beneficiaries.'  Including members of the elites themselves.  There's got to be an immutable law somewhere, that says we lose happiness, the more we live apart from reality and from fairness with each other.  Of this, I can't spell out a proof, but I have a strong feeling this is the case.

The publicity campaign against bitcoin and crypto could represent one of said campaigns.

Jamie Dimon may just be trying to cool the Bitcoin market a bit.  He said the same thing when Bitcoin was in the low hundreds.

The major signs I see of elite promotion of cryptos are:

- The price rise.  This speaks volumes when the elites could have killed it with laws.

- The unknown buyer of cryptos shelling out $60 million at a time, over months.  What private entity would put that kind of funds at risk?

- The BIS ('central bank of central banks') recent release of the 'new taxonomy of money' where state money is no longer solely legitimate as today's economists like to say.  Instead, a plethora of monetary forms are recognized, including precious metals and cryptos.  Most significantly, it states that state-issued cryptos won't compete with non-state cryptos by trying to be limited-supply.

- In the political sphere, the disappearance of talk about Bitcoin being a crime-enabler and the need to tighten control over it.  The appearance (in a small way) of proposals to help cryptos.

- The SEC's quick response to the need to control the proliferation of ICOs.

- Between an essay by an ex-central-banker from South Africa and the ECB's recent announcement, it's pretty clear that the Western elites are going to adopt the narrative that cryptos' rise is simply due to market demand, and that authorities won't and shouldn't interfere.  This sounds morally impeccable, but is highly misleading as a description of reality.  Of course, it will benefit cryptos.
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1441
September 28, 2017, 05:24:51 AM
#2
There's a very human tendency to define conceptual abstracts in terms of polar inverse opposites.

Light and dark. Good and evil. Black and white. Love and hate. Moral and immoral.

Its not for me to say if your depiction of "real wealth" versus "financial wealth" fits into a dualistic abstract framework.

Many have said the united states has not had real economic growth in at least a decade. The rationalize circumstances such that the financial and real estate sectors growing do not represent true economic growth. Others view derivatives and overprinting of money as not representing real wealth or value. I think you might be on to something with "fake wealth" being redefined to represent "true wealth". There may be some misinformation campaigns in place to leverage a publics collective lack of knowledge and education.

The publicity campaign against bitcoin and crypto could represent one of said campaigns.
hero member
Activity: 2128
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
September 27, 2017, 09:14:02 PM
#1
Money, debt, and finance can get as complicated as you want.  But they can also be stunningly simple when looked at the right way.  And I like simple.
 
Basically, you have real wealth and financial wealth.  Real wealth is made up of goods, services, infrastructure, knowledge, etc.  Financial wealth is the various tickets that are claims on real wealth: money, bonds, stocks, derivatives, etc.
 
Over the modern centuries, top politicians and bankers have tended to issue too much financial wealth for the real wealth available.  To prevent a collapse of savers' confidence in the financial wealth, power and deception are used to prop up its value.  One of the favorites is somehow to keep the price of goods and services low by concentrating financial wealth.  As long as not all the dollars chase goods at the same time, all the saved dollars can appear to be still valuable.
 
At this point, the elites can play all kinds of tricks to keep this game afloat, for a while, but ultimately, the only way to true stability is to let prices rise.  When prices go up, the values of the financial wealth and real wealth will be more equal.  Real faith will return to the financial wealth, and the elites can go back to issuing more of it without worry.
 
The only problem with inflation, though, is that the public will lose faith in state-issued money.  This is the reason why the elites have tried not to resort to inflation until the last possible minute.  Helicopter money hasn't come, yet.

Enter cryptocurrencies.  If the elites can get the public to believe in crypto as a decentralized, limited-quantity money, then they can feel free to create inflation by issuing more money and debt: the normally embarrassing depreciation of state-issued money against non-state-issued money as a result of the inflation will be described by central banks and the media as free-market demand for a new type of money.  Crypto will help limit the demand for gold and silver, whose appreciation will be embarrassing.  And the state-issued money will be stable at the new 'exchange rate,' since the elites are likely buying up many bitcoins now to prepare for future suppression of Bitcoin's rise.

Imagine late 19th century central banks suddenly receiving a lot of gold from heaven, and you have almost the right picture.  Just that they have to first convince the public that this is gold.

This being a perfect play for the elites, plus the many observations in support of this story in recent months and years, we really have to consider the good chance that the Great Reflation is underway as we speak.
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