Looking at the volume of money that the central banks printed during the COVID time, I am surprised that the inflation rate is not any higher. Just 8.6%? Are we sure that these guys are not lying? The M1 money supply went up by like 4-5 times. The population remained the same (or slightly decreased as a result of deaths from COVID), and that means that there is 4x or 5x more money available for everyone. Naturally, I would have expected inflation rate in the vicinity of 100% or 200%. If that is not happening, then the reason maybe that most of the money ended up with people who are not supposed to receive it.
From what I have seen on internet, the function
Inflation(Money_Supply)
is often modeled as a lineal function or combination of lineal functions of the type
f(x)= bx+c , the critical part of this type of function is the slope "b".
Maybe, in the case of the current USA economy the function between the money supply and the inflation has a very low slope at the time being, a fraction of the unit (1).
If I could have access to monthly FIAT emission data and montly inflation data, I could estimate de slope of the function.
Do you know where I could find such information?
Maybe the inflation is not as high as you could have anticipated because some big companies are keeping big reserves in cash, let us remember that during the pandemic there were news about how companies and the rich were earning much more during those times.
If the average American spent their stimulus check on a basket of essencial goods, it would not be strange that all money ended up in the pockets of big players like Walmart, which have decided to keep the cash until now and therefore, out circulation. Who knows, this could be a deal between these big players and the US government/FED.
