Topic: The Life Cycle of Bitcoin (Read 288 times)

Meh and it will never be.
I would not categorize BTC as a product but since we seemed to talk about product life stages here. Here is one from my findings about "growth stage".
"Growth Stage is the period during which the product eventually and increasingly gains acceptance among consumers."
Now to put it into perspective of Bitcoin, it hasn't been adopted a lot yet that most are dreaming of so yeah pretty much we're still in the growth stage.

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Source: https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-marketing/chapter/product-life-cycles/

Bitcoin has a cycle. Of course, in this cycle, it is normal that there will be ups and downs. This time, Bitcoin's plunge is not the demise of Bitcoin, but rather normal things that happened in this cycle, which is a stage that Bitcoin's development must go through.

Normally, but the current mining bans are bitcoin only ,
and only Bitcoin is receiving the bad PR.

China , Iran , and New York have banned bitcoin mining,
they have not banned any Proof of Stake from staking,
and to be honest PoS coins use so little power , they can't be tracked by power usage.
So staking is next to impossible to stop, and can even be run from a VPS or with a VPN in a country where it is acceptable.

But this movement to ban only bitcoin due to it's energy waste is growing.
https://www.treehugger.com/ban-bitcoin-5094352

* The Product Cycle is more powerful, than the bitcoin mining table. *
* As Governments are going to have no choice but to ban it , to protect their power grids and their people.*

BTC has become more valuable as the number of altcoins have increased,
since this adds more bitcoin that have to offset the price of the market pairs with the altcoins.
Problems for Bitcoin , is more exchanges have begun direct US dollar pairing with alts,
which means BTC can now be left out of the trades all together.
Also the reason why Dodge is doing well, as it has many market pairing.
But as the Bans of BTC increase , more people are going to migrate to coins that
have cheaper transaction fees, are faster to transact with,
don't harm the environment or cause their personal electricity bills to increase.

Bitcoin is like Freon (what they used to put in the Air conditions) ,
Once it was discovered Freon was bad for the environment, they started banning it use,
As of Jan 1st , 2020 Freon has been permanently banned in the US,
Expect the same to happen to bitcoin,
if they don't redesign their PoW to quit harming the environment thru unnecessary waste.


FYI:
While their are only 21 million bitcoins,
Look at what happens when it is divided
If the smallest unit of bitcoin was
.5  then their are 42 million units of usable bitcoins
.25 then their are 84 million units of usable bitcoins
Bitcoin allows eight places to the right of the decimal
.00000001 gives 2.1 Quadrillion units of usable bitcoins called a satoshi
If you look at many exchanges , they are even trading at further to the right than 8, and LN has proposed 12 places to the right.
So Bitcoin is not as really scarce as they make out.
1 bitcoin continuing increasing to the right , is basically an unlimited commodity.
* No where in the real pysical world can you continue inflating to the right and
the unit still have any utility, where as in the virtual world such limits do not exist.  
 

Bitcoin of course has also a life cycle because it consist of demand and supply. The life cycle of a product is broken into four stages—introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. From the introduction stage, we are now in developing or growth stage because we can see that bitcoins value are now increasing from $ cent to $62K. As for maturity, I don’t think it’s there yet because bitcoin’s adoption is just beginning. As for the decline, it depends on the demand and supply of bitcoin in the market. The decline for every product is inevitable. It means the product sales drop significantly and the demand will also decrease. The same with bitcoin but, it's to early to discuss about that. Also, I believe the demand for bitcoin will continue until next next generation as long as the adoption continue to increase.

You are saying that bitcoin needs a redesign in order to remain relevant in the market. Also you noted that 10yrs is let's say average product life, now BTC is more than 10yrs.

But from mining table of bitcoin, it's estimated as the times goes the BTC becomes more valuable and scarce. It is somewhat confusing to determine actually how it will be in the future.

where did you saw the campaign ? i dont see btc being promoted but it was the product/service that is being advertised and if you saw a btc logo in it , that means btc is supported  . btc is not new to be in the introduction stage but thousand and millions of people in the world already recognized btc.

yes it can be . the price of btc continues to grow except if there was a bear because the price growth was paused during these times .

maturity stage is where btc fits the most but maturity stage does not define a decline but it defines a growth aswell . recently btc is going in a decline stage but that seem to be over now

The difference between Bitcoin and fleeting products is that Bitcoin is almost half-idea half-product. I don't disagree with the life cycle of a product. But I'm afraid it couldn't be fully applied to Bitcoin. The internet, for example, might survive for as long as humanity exists, but the dotcom and other internet-based products have already went through all the stages including the Decline Stage.

Bitcoin has definitely an end just like the earth, but it is not as if it could be likened to the life cycle of Bitcoin-based products. There was already rise and fall on Bitcoin-based products but Bitcoin itself will probably thrive for several more decades if not centuries. We're still at the earliest phase of the Introduction Stage.

Bitcoin is in the growth stage and has yet matured.

Each four years, Bitcoin has a big bull run and it follows the Psychology of Market Cycle.
 
When the growth stage of Bitcoin expands further, I believe the cycle will be shorter than four years. Four years for big bull runs certainly but there will be more mini bull run in each 4 years. The bearish market during each four years will be shorter.

I like your point of view, digital gold, the future of Bitcoin is the reference standard for the new economic order, the basic law of exchange rate reformulation, it will coexist with FIAT

I still think Bitcoin is only a child in its infancy. It has only existed for 12 years, and we have watched it gradually change the world's view of it. Its current price is not stable enough, but the overall momentum of BTC is rising, and I am optimistic about its development in the long term.

just wait if the circulation supply has reached 21M, everyone who wants to have it has to spend a lot of money because it's scarce and can no longer be mined. At times like that there will be a continuous increase and there tends to be no decline

You said "unless it is redesign" this alone makes it a factor of continuity. Looking at the market condition since 2009, does it remained the same thing, haven't you heard about company buying bitcoin for reserve,? hasn't been said to be redesigned? Haven't you seen lots of new implementations, everything around Bitcoin is now in a civilized entanglement, this is the proff that bitcoin is not going to die off anytime soon, bitcoin is here to stay for ever because it is a digital asset with the same thing as physical land.

Bitcoin is not a product, it's an open source software. Bitcoin doesn't make sales. The closes analogue for sales is the number of transactions. Bitcoin blocks are full almost all the time, so it's clear that its popularity isn't declining and won't be declining anytime soon. Its competitors are also very weak, none of them has the same security and safety as Bitcoin, and they don't plan to have it.

Yes, all things must come to an end, but Bitcoin will not end in our lifetimes.

I disagree with the analogy here, bitcoin cannot be define as a product in the first place so everything is already wrong in the beginning. And for technicalities, all bitcoin is going to be mine around 2140, so that is a long process and then we have the boom and bust cycle along the way. And then we have the halving, and I don't think any products in the market has this kind of event.

How are you very sure that bitcoin is not at declining stage? Bitcoin has many things to redesign to fit in the current market. So many altcoins has some designs like PoS that eliminates some barriers. At this very stage Bitcoin need to redesign to remain very valid, if not it will surely fade off. Every product follows the above staeges, but some tend to remain in the maturity state for very long, such as fiat currencies.

Bitcoin is definitely an asset or a currency so it would increase its value once the demand becomes higher too. And i see today that bitcoin as a currency or a good store of value is gaining its growth knowing there are still bigger institutions that would be interested to accept bitcoin as a payment system in the coming days.

And yes, just like gold people will keep on accumulating bitcoin especially when the price is in dip because once its value reaches another ATH, people will not only create huge profits but adoption will aso grow as well.

Well, from 1 to 4, this statement which the most I disagree with is this number 4. Bitcoin is no life that has an end, it should always forever and it has a limited supply, it could increase the price by the demand and the supply, and the price all matter in that way, and most of all, bitcoin is not a product that could be phase off in the market and most especially, bitcoin created with how its own code and no one can change for the redesigned, if there is, that is bitcoin fork with different network and will also different miners. I think you must understand first how bitcoin will work before making this thread.

IMHO, we're at the growth stage. The introduction was already done and has been made several years ago until the media came in and the institutions too.

We're far from seeing it decline and if ever it's going to decline, it's only the chart and its price which shall recover afterward. That's based on what happened in the past because whenever bitcoin drops, it recovers.

Sorry, Bitcoin is an original old outdated product , (An 8  Track Tape of the crypto sphere.)


all one has to do is look at the limited performance and features it offers compared to all other coins.

bitcoin is not a product. its a category/industry/utility

people can get bored of pokemon cards. but bitcoin is not some silly childs trendy thing based on a tv show

bitcoin is economic medium. not a childs toy

In your study of Product life cycles, I hope they taught you that the average product life cycle is ~10 years.
BTC born in 2010, so 11 years old, past the age of collapse for most products.
New Phase is beginning of Government Banning of said bitcoin product,
if Bitcoiners don't find a way to stop the increasing bans due to their global energy waste,
then we will be in the decline cycle with a very fast ride on the way down.

If I were you, Check out Cardano and it is a New 3rd Generation Blockchain product
It solved the energy efficient issue
It solved the onchain transactions issue
It has capabilities Bitcoin can't even dream of.
It product cycle is just beginning.  


FYI:
The thing Bitcoin needs to stay out of the decline stage is a design change to PoS,
but bitcoiners are refusing to evolve, so a permanent decline to $0 is possible.
Ethereum is evolving by switching to PoS design, so their product cycle will be continuing .

Imo, I don't think that bitcoin is a product. So it will not follow the product life cycle. Bitcoin is an asset. It will not decline. More and more people will continue to have and keep bitcoin for themselves by so the value will continue to increase as time goes. Just like gold, as the life cycle will not work for gold, so also it will not work for bitcoin

Yes, we are in Bitcoins growth stage and will be until all Bitcoin is mined. Even though
Bitcoin is designed to be deflationary it is still growing until all is mined at a slower
rate every 4 years.

We could also argue that running beside the growth stage is also the maturity stage,
this comes with adoption when more and more people realise the power of BTC

These product life cycle stages are based on a physical product and was formulated ages back when probably the concept of internet didn't exist. So I don't think Bitcoin will follow similar pattern of the lifecycle of a physical product.

The concept of bitcoin is very new and not a lot of people are aware of it. So I would say bitcoin is at introduction stage as of now. Growth is yet to be seen. What we are seeing is just a tip of the iceberg.

the ongoing recognition stage does not mean the initial stage is continuous, but the expansion stage. because the introduction is sufficient at the beginning and the introduction of the second, third and so on into the expansion wave.


That's right, because from day to day BTC will continue to grow as greater adoption shows massive and very significant growth.


at this point, you should be able to distinguish which one is called a fall, and which one is called a correction. because in principle a falling trade indicates that it may not necessarily go up, while a correction is a pattern or cycle that will occasionally increase again.

this is not a guaranteed stage and almost 99% of things you see in the world that are useful never have this stage. for example when paper money was created it took all the first 3 steps and then entered the "thriving stage" as it was mass adopted and used everywhere. the same was repeated when the same paper money became digital when digital banking started.

now it is all being repeated with introduction of bitcoin and after mass adoption we will enter "thriving stage" where bitcoin stays stable and continues working for decades to come.

In mathematics or even in science, we see such maps of a predictable event. When we are talking about Bitcoins I do think we will see many possibilities of seeing algorithms which are impossible to predict or even put on the maps.

- we also have to recognize the power the whales have over the whole system and then go forward with that
- we have to see the price chart also , which could show us the growth and it's not consistent, it's not a hyperbola or even a straight line.

I do think for Bitcoins we are in the "understanding" phase. Where people are trying to connect the dots and at the same time learning about it. Where government is keen on taxing Bitcoins but on the same hand banning it. It can't be defined be any of these parameters.

The days that will not come, or the days that will take centuries to come. Bitcoin is deflationary, people will like to hold and you will see all-time-high. Just see it as the digital gold.

During my high school days, I was taught that products have a life circle. For every product, must follow below life cycle.

1. Introduction Stage: This is the first phase when the product is introduced in the market. This stage is characterized by much spending in promotion of the product, to make it acceptable in the market.
2. Growth Stage: At this stage, people have understood the concept of the product and start to buy it. Sales increases very well at this stage.
3. Maturity Stage: At this stage the product sales begin to decline, because it has started having many competitors  or experiencing low demand.
4. Decline Stage: Everything that has a beginning has an end. At the stage sales deteriorate drastically. And the product will phase off the market unless the product is redesigned.

Now, trying to relate the above to BTC.
Is BTC at the introduction stage? I asked because there are still campaigns promoting BTC and BTC is not yet generally accepted by all.

Is BTC in growth stage? I asked because in past few years we have experienced improved sales of BTC.

Is BTC in maturity stage? I asked because after the recent dip in BTC it seems it's sales has reduced and there are altcoins too that are competing with BTC.

But I am very sure BTC is not in Decline Stage.