Topic: The Lucky Bit Big Win Prediction Game! (Read 5514 times)

Yes, I didn't update this thread in a timely manner. It looks like this game just isn't happening, so I won't force it.

For the record, two players hit fringe wins (x22 and x111) during last week, so I won the pot.

I'll stop updating here since nobody is going to play.

Two days left to bet on the week of 29-12-14.

Current collections:

1Miss1 - 0BTC
1Hits1 - 0BTC

Nobody at all?

Wagers for the week of 22-12-2014 are closed! Here's the results:

1Hits1

0.02BTC - 1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi

1Miss1

0.001BTC - 1LwaEKSDtygTDutryG3gQhijZibD5w5mSs

Total prize pool: 0.021BTC

Wagers for the week of 29-12-2014 begin immediately!

Blockchain is the example wallet that had a private keys.

Exchanger or Other gambling site will not compatible to send some bet on luckybit
since you're not control a private key at all

"If you don't control the private keys to the wallet" what does it actually means?

I have my password for the wallet and i control it although

Only one day left to place your bets for the week of 22-12-14. Someone hit x999 yesterday and the only bets in so far are on 1Hits1 so next week is looking good!

Current collections:

1Miss1 - 0BTC
1Hits1 - .02BTC

Less than 24 hours to get your bets confirmed!

Don't use an exchange or third-party wallet service to play this game! If you don't control the private keys to the wallet, I cannot guarantee you will receive your win.

Can i send my bet from coin base wallet on this?

Hello, folks! Just checking in with a mid-week update so people have an idea of where the bets lie.

Current collections:

1Miss1 - 0BTC
1Hits1 - .02BTC

Still plenty of time to change the odds in your favor!

Sure, and if you think you can get some choice odds by betting at the last minute, go ahead! In the end it's the side that predicted incorrectly that funds the prize, regardless of when they bet. Another player could do the same thing to try to leverage against your bet; but of course if a bet doesn't confirm it is too late, and strategy won't help if you guess wrong. I see potential for strategic bets here that only affect the payouts, not the results. This isn't a problem since the payout for this style of game is unpredictable anyway.

If you are uncomfortable betting in a game with unpredictable payouts, this (and perhaps Lucky Bit) isn't for you.

I can look the last day how much money on 1miss vs 1win, this is what I mean.

The odds are dependent on game activity on the site. There is no way for this game to have fixed odds.

There is no latecomer advantage; bets aren't evaluated until the following week - so if you send on Saturday to 1Miss1 because there wasn't a hit all week, you're doing it wrong (your bet won't count until Sunday anyway).

Remember: results can't be known for 7-14 days.

I feel unconfortable because with a week game it is too easy to bet in the less weighted side on the last days, or on " 1miss!" during the last minute.

Also, I cannot calculate the odds for 1miss vs 1win.

Wagers for 14-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

The system is now on a weekly basis, so there's plenty of time for bets to accrue. Remember: It will take between 7 and 14 days for the result to be known!

I'm throwing in on this week, to "seed the game" as it were.

Collections for week 22-12-2014 start immediately.

Hey, that's a great idea! I think I'll go with that.

I'll do it tomorrow so it doesn't disrupt the existing schedule (just in case).

Maybe extend the duration to a weekly thing
Daily frequency might not support the volumes at present.

Wagers for 13-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

Collections for 14-12-2014 begin immediately.

Should I just stop doing this?

Wagers for 12-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

Collections for 13-12-2014 begin immediately.

Wagers for 11-12-2014 are closed. No bets received. A lot more people said they would play this game than are actually playing it.

Collections for 12-12-2014 begin immediately. Anyone? ......anyone?

Results for 09-12-2014 are in. 1Miss1 wins!

0.001 * 99.5% = 0.000995BTC sent to 1 winner. Since the edge didn't cover the fees, the payment is routed through my wallet.
TXID 84be4d7b355225b34ca8c2418eae7c659b6543e7d980a59a5537010437ae48f2

Wagers for 10-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

Collections for 11-12-2014 begin immediately.

Results for 08-12-2014 are in. 1Miss1 wins!

0.006BTC * 99.5% = 0.00597BTC paid to 1 winner. Since the edge didn't cover the fees, the payment is routed through my wallet.
TXID c296c40a71fbdbc71a659ede06cb8bde763cc2676d37e2bd44ada055a2a78f21

Wagers for 09-12-2014 are closed. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
(nobody...)

Bet on 1Miss1
1BHN7Y8X9CHhHdDuosc9vBa79QVmPphE9A - 0.001BTC

Total prize pool: 0.001BTC

Collections for 10-12-2014 begin immediately.

Wagers for 07-12-2014 are closed. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi - 0.005BTC

Bet on 1Miss1
13wZt74rDowJznv1TACrZVHiPywKAynYCe - 0.001BTC

Total prize pool: 0.006BTC

Collections for 08-12-2014 begin immediately.

Betted on miss

Wagers for 06-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

Collections for 07-12-2014 are underway. I'm going to bet on hit, just to see if anyone will come try to win it.

That depends on how much is bet each round, and how much of the winning side was your bet. This is explained in the topic post.

If I bet BTC 0.001 to YES
how much the payout if I win ?

Wagers for 05-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

Collections for 06-12-2014 are underway. Come on guys, are you allergic to fun or what?

Results for 03-12-2014 are in. 1Miss1 wins!

0.0026 * 99.5% = 0.002587BTC sent to 1 winner. Since the edge didn't pay the fee, it's being routed through my wallet.
TXID 3963af2f91b84a3d01529fbb4e79cd708fa481d9133439989bf18d0fba9e474b

Wagers for 04-12-2014 are closed. No bets received.

Since there are no outstanding funds, now is a good time to instance the change suggested by erre. There is now a minimum bet of 0.001BTC.

Collections for 05-12-2014 begin immediately.

Double post

The problem is: if only a few people bets very different sums, there's a chanche that one side will end with many more bitcoins than the other. In a free betmarket of thousand of people this would probably auto-regulate and this difference would reflect the different odds of 1miss vs 1win, but that's not the case. I'm not whining about my 0.0025, but exposing something that, Imho,  could be considered a bug in your game. And I also think that btcboss wisely used this " exploit" betting the minimum amount on the most unlikely event, and he deserves my money (in the case he'll win). I like your game.
Proposed solution: a minimum 0.002 token

Fix what? This is the way the game was designed. Besides, you only put up 0.0025 which is also a tiny risk. Another player could drown both of you out of the game by simply betting 0.01BTC.

If you have a specific suggestion I'll be happy to read and consider it, but if you don't propose a solution (or even state a problem) then I have no motivation to make changes.

Hey, btcboss,  that's not a fair strategy!  

I need to check the addresses before betting next time, if things work like this I have some chanches of losing 5% of my 0.0025, and some chanches of lose all!
You, on the other side, are risking nothing...

Pls sringer fix this, or nobody will bet again...

Results for 02-12-2014 are final. 1Miss1 wins!

No need to split the house edge in this case, since I won it all.
TXID 63944e0d2e097ed3655b37bd3a68fc26eb94b25f0e8e9f1f0d4e973d4c917b1a

Wagers for 03-12-2014 are in. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
1BtcBoSSnqe8mFJCUEyCNmo3EcF8Yzhpnc - 0.0001BTC

Bet on 1Miss1
1H42iHQekuuDVWf66Z4haZWxXJqf8zxuTo - 0.0025BTC

Total prize pool 0.0026BTC

Collections for 04-12-2014 begin immediately.

I don't think so , For the first 2 days 1Miss was win in this event.
But yesterday Red x999 has been hit twice in LuckyBit .

Betting is always for the following day. You don't improve your chances by betting at any given time.

Results for 01-12-2014 are final. 1Hits1 wins!
1Grjv43NFvDUG3ZWNdbgkwAvWEnJpAZD4Q bet 0.002 on red and hit x999, winning 1.998BTC. Congratulations!

No winners this round - 0.001BTC held for next round.

Wagers for 02-12-2014 are in. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
(nobody...)

Bet on 1Miss1
1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi - 0.01BTC

Total prize pool: 0.011BTC

Collections for 03-12-2014 begin immediately.

Hmm too bad today someone hit red x999  1Hit should win today
So for tomorrow do we will see somebody hit :
Blue x2   
Green x22
Yellow x111
Red x999
Promo x10     

Place your bets in 1Miss or 1Hit ( for further information see the first page from this thread )
GoodLuck 

Results for 30-11-2014 are final. 1Miss1 wins!

No need to split the house edge in this case, since I won it all.
TXID e1ae17124e7a558bffe4b38abeb780d968b2aa9c03ea48503c8b4be3d611f855

Wagers for 01-12-2014 are in. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
(nobody...)

Bet on 1Miss1
1GAf35L4i1N5nyJrruYEtEwBssdrLXAVLH - 0.001BTC

Total prize pool: 0.001BTC

Collections for 02-12-2014 begin immediately.

I betted on " miss" 

Results for 29-11-14 are final. 1Miss1 wins!

No winners this round - 0.003BTC held for next round.

Wagers for 30-11-14 are in. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
(nobody...)

Bet on 1Miss1
1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi - 0.02BTC

Total prize pool: 0.023BTC

Collections for 01-12-14 begin immediately.

Results for 28-11-14 are final. 1Miss1 wins!

0.0222 * 99.5% = 0.022089BTC paid to 3 winners.
TXID a04959bb59fe887e13e1d04c2cc887ba0371c9889490c92bcc193c2c671b5fea

Wagers for 29-11-14 are in. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi - 0.003BTC

Bet on 1Miss1
(nobody....)

Total prize pool: 0.003BTC

Collections for 30-11-14 begin immediately.

my answer is right ?

Lost 0.9 btc tonight. Got nothing atm but when I do I MIGHT give it a shot.

Results for 27-11-14 are final. 1Miss1 wins!

0.13457901 * 99.5% = 0.13390611BTC paid to 1 winner.
TXID 6666a03fb65eae027c65246f5cfb4b129107f2d01554981e4734293b9fb2493c

Wagers for 28-11-14 are in. Here's the list:

Bet on 1Hits1
1Jo7zoWnvUW7EtAwj3vcp4gREbggmYHDqF - 0.001BTC

Bet on 1Miss1
16MtvTUvqwwKwV87nayxPLHTJJZNGPa9qw - 0.01BTC
1KcBzReYZvbeGgiaMip92MMFtTFgDqB3Vm - 0.0012BTC
1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi - 0.01BTC

Total prize pool: 0.0222BTC

Collections for 29-11-14 begin immediately.

Whoops, nice catch. I had the categories switched (edited and fixed). The 0.119 was on 1Miss1.

Nope you wrong that 1Gmst addy will win if no bets hit Blue x2 Green x22 Yellow x111 or Red x999

send my prediction
wish me luck

There is no requirement to play, just send your bet to the address for your prediction. Don't send from an exchange or third-party service because wins are processed 'on-chain' the same as Lucky Bit.

Why should I put my wallet address first before I can play?

Sent in https://blockchain.info/tx/e02e5dc65afea95a823106f97bbd740993270fa2bf903b13c575f3cae07696d7

Wagers for 27-11-14 are in! Here's the list:

Bet on 1Miss1
1GmstrczMGKpVuFH6bsU1RRyvFEXmfXHo1 - 0.11957901BTC

Bet on 1Hits1
1WayStGErPLgjrGpK7Ro36ZA2eeraoaMi - 0.01BTC
1At8KjNtUyAhWdUuNrZyUsCVQCFqcuY68m - 0.005BTC

Total prize pool: 0.13457901BTC

Collections for 28-11-14 begin immediately.

The odds of hitting the max win are extremely low, I don't think its a really good idea, odds are way against you.

Yes this is certainly an interesting idea and I'm curious to see how it plays out.

So in other words
If it hits the max prize on each side for those numbers the Yes side wins
And if not the No side wins

Sounds like a fun game

Nice game.

I like the concept and i will try it soon, maybe this or next round.

Great idea stingleword. 

It does on red, but only x2 on blue would count for a YES bet.

Landing on a 2... doesn't that happen very often? o.O

Lucky Bit is proud to offer another community game available to the public! This game features an incredible 0.5% house edge, community wagering, and a new twist on the great Lucky Bit game while featuring the transparency and trust our players expect. This game is simple, easy to play, and provably fair! Originally suggested as the "Lucky Bit Lottery" by one of our users, this game now takes its official sponsored form as the Big Win Prediction Game!

Here's how to play:

* Of course, use a compatible wallet. Just like the betting pools and any on-chain game, the address the coins were spent from is the address your win will be sent to and when multiple addresses are used the first one on the list will receive the payment. No exceptions.
* There is a minimum bet of 0.001BTC and no maximum. You can wager any amount you want but your win is proportional to the amount you bet.
* You are always betting on next week's results. This means bets after 00:00 UTC on the Sunday following your wager's confirmation, through the next Saturday at 23:59:59.
* Results and payment transactions will always be posted here. Inquiries should be posted here, not PM'ed.
* Rounds complete at 00:00 UTC weekly. Unconfirmed wagers will be processed on the day they are confirmed, not the day they are sent.
* Ambiguous confirmation times will default to the later week.


If a bet lands on the x2/x22/x111/x999 slot any time during the 7 day time frame, the YES side wins. If no bet lands it, the NO side wins. The resulting pay is the total sum of BOTH sides and will be divided proportionally with all players from the winning side, minus 0.5% house edge to cover operational costs.