Topic: The market is not designed to be predictable. Or is it? (Read 528 times)

Hold it and forget if it continues to look bad for you, keep working don't look back in time to welcome your future don't regret it because you haven't lost the important don't sell it

I guess its pretty much true that you start loosing your assets if you are actually selling them. Now it doesnt matter if you are selling them at the time high peaks but if you see them at the downtrends then surely it will be worst for you. You loose over it and you also start counting in terms of local value (fiat). In reality if you consider a bitcoin as bitcoin then you wont be having any problem with what market situation is currently. But if you start counting the numbers in terms of say USD then surely it will impact your selling and buying patterns a lot. Meaning its impossible to hold if you look at the market in those terms.

Trading requires a certain level of prediction, with the help of TA and FA but in reality, it is not always as predictable, the correct and perfect trader is one who is able to predict over 70%accurately by my own acknowledgement. Less than this, one should just be revolving around a cycle and not making good profit and be running at a loss even

To some extent it is predictable. Altough doing technical analysis is not everyone's cup of tea, following the market price charts of the top 10 coins is fairly easy. If you want to get into any of the altcoins in that list you have t wait for some FUD to enter and then buy that rumor so as to get in a cheap price. Then hodl that till you get a good profit margin to sell your portfolio.

Not that long, I think a bigger rise compared to the 2017 December pump will be seen in this year end or next year. The adoption and buzz around crypto has reached a lot in the recent few years and thus big whales are entering the pools.

The market is cyclical and events are repeated periodically. But most people are waiting for the next growth too fast. I think that we should wait for the next "Bubble" in 3-5 years.

How can you even consider bitcoin is remotely predictable ?
It is not predictable, bitcoin can do anything tomorrow and we can't know why it happened and no one would be shocked at all. It is as unpredictable as unpredictable goes.

Bitcoin can be $3k tomorrow or $9k and no one would be shocked, we would be either sad or happy but we won't be shocked, bitcoin did those thinks before. That is a x3 difference from $3k to $9k, that is a huuuuge swing yet we would accept it like "yeah bitcoin does that" in either case. Bitcoin is not predictable, the market is not designed to be predictable, you can't know when mtgox trustee can come up and sell another $10k, you can't know these things.

Main job is good, and doing trading can be side job, beside to earn extra money, trading activities with your free money wouldn't make you suffer in real life if loss. That is why actually people shouldn't out from their job and be traders only.

Nope. The market is not designed just to be predictable because it is very confidential and many people are actually cannot predict it. I think also that markets design just to be non predictable to the person who are using it yet it can be strategic in able to have a patyern on how you will measure the market sometimes. Just look on the supply and demand of the market to have a hint on its value.

Yup, it is very obvious for what is the next move of Bitcoin and other cryptos. But if you mislook it you might end up having a lot of trouble. But for some people it is very easy to get rich by trading cryptocurrencies.

The market can be never predictable unless you can manipulate the demand and supply in considerable amount which can slick the panic button for most of the users.But we hae lot of tools and analytical methods to predict how the market is going to be but there is no guarantee that it will happen just like we predicted it.

I'm going to veer a little off topic, but Bitcoin was meant to be p2p correct? It is becoming a stock, and if you're not educated in securities laws, this could be a disaster. If or when SEC wants to file for BTC a registed statement, BTC has to become a reporting company. They have to file audits every quarter, yearly, random in a lot of financial cases. 12-G reporting companies have thier 10ks, and freeze trading anytime they want. Bitcoin itself is fundamentally flawed, but I still have faith in it.

The market was always predictable . You always have avalabile charts on different web platforms for crypto . But you have to be careful . This is crypto world not just a simple stock market . There is a big volatility as you can see

You can analyze and give your results but the accuracy of the results is important. People are predicting a lot, but it's almost inaccurate so the market isn't designed to be predictable.

If you know technical analysis and fundamental analysis in most cases, you can predict the future price

You have to look into everything and to cover every area as it is unpredictable about its sudden jump and up but is predictable when it starts moving in only one direction. So experience and knowledge is required to look into business that can be any business. And I prefer the Blockchain technology to look into Bitcoin buying and selling process from an authentic shop.

The market is not actually design to be predicted and that is the nature of almost all the illiquid assets. If you can predict the market then there will be no money to be made. The professionals make money by predicting to some extent the direction of the market why the amateur thought they can predict the market perfectly and most time they are the one loosing money.

Easier said than done. Selling during a hype is easy. It's much harder to find a good entry point on the way down. A couple months back I was fairly certain that we're not going below 9k, but then the Korean FUD came and ruined the mood.


Of course, let the dogs fight while you watch, relax, pop a beer. Those little gains they're ready to kill for right now are nothing. If you compare each previous bubble it's obvious that there was the same every time. A lot of pushing through the resistance levels, a lot of fighting to offload those coins worth $300 or $500...
I remember that I used to be happy when I sold some coins at $500 with a $1000 gain and it later fell to $400. Those were the days. Now the same coins would be worth over 50k USD. In a few years we'll be laughing at our own stupidity when 1 BTC trades for 50k.

Market would never be predictable even though its part of the reality on where price manipulations/recessions/supression is present but not coming to a point on where it is already predictable. Only who are capable can dictate price movements.I do love the idea on getting a job and then forget all of the assets we do have and simply hold it for long terms.There might people to take this advise but we cant really deny the fact that people do love to risk and engage themselves to active trading since they do know the possible returns that they would able to gain if they able to make it right.

How can it be predictable when its purely speculative market? Did you not profit when all the money from institutional investors came pouring in? Common, December was like madness, frenzy out there, if you just hold during that time and didn't make tons of money then there's something wrong with your money making strategy. Of course its better to hold, but at least you should learn how to offload some of your stash to make profit and then enter the picture when the price goes down. I don't know what do you mean by the market is rigged with bot, we still need people behind to ran this bot, so people decide when to buy/sell. Again, sometimes you need to know when to exit and when to hold your assets. Hell, you can even shift our money around to make profits. I guess everyone really needs to know some tricks, not just holding.

Regulation was there - maybe you did not notice it or were not bothered to notice it.

I suggest people who have bought btc to sell at the pump - not just HODL - that is being stubborn. Be cunning enough to cash some profits and then buy back when the dump happens - specially when the panic sellers drop the market.

Perks of being a normal human.

Any proof? Markets are run by whales - but bots? Need to provide evidence or else its just an assumption with no proof.

i know exactly how the feeling to lost so much money quickly and trading always make it happened.
there is nothing can heal it but turn your losses into a profit are the only medicine. that frustration moment make you think it is better to put the money in hope for nothing but you set the alarm on certain price , so you can take a look how much your money increased in value.

i just hold on my faith that my trading skills improved and things in the market get closer to predictable most of the times.
trading not only about how you make money , but the process makes you earned a lot of great things to become a better trader , you can not trade properly in just few months, it takes years to get the real benefit.

Many people start reading candles and charts then determine various positions.
I've learned that, but I'm not sure whether this method works and is proven.
anyone can explain?

I don't think there's one person who could say they can accurately predict how btc will move. Crypto is a highly volatile market and you can't predict a coin's movement exactly how it would end up. Many have tried but you can only get close hits, not pin point accuracy.

Actually bitcoins are highly unpredictable. They never stable at any one point because this is the nature of crypto currencies being unstable and fluctuating between different figures. For now, as bitcoins are concerned, definitely they aren’t predictable. However if you are an experienced trader and you have seen many ups and downs in life, you can someone predict while relating the patterns shown by bitcoins in past.

Not at all, as you said we need a great timing and having huge luck in this type of job and most important are knowledge that you would apply. The combination of three indicator would give you a good journey as my opinion.

I agree with you. Market can’t be predictable, cause in that case everyone would be a rich man. Nevertheless, there are some events, which effect on the course we can guess in advance, at least approximately.

Even satoshi's speculation also may not work here in this crypto market. There are people really making  decision to bump and dump the cheap cryptos with the signal group for somewhile but that will not be long time survive for sure.
Since all we know the crypto currencies are volatile in nature we do not have the idea like someone designed the crypto market or something.

There are no brakes like with regular money, so it's much easier to manipulate and once it starts to fall then it falls for good.

Well, we are all fortune tellers here, claiming that bitcoin price could repeat history wishing and hoping for that fact so that we can have something that will really make us all gain and will be able to help our family with our needs, it is okay to see the market just don't rely most of your decisions as it is unstable from time to time.

It isn’t,, it’s speculative in nature.. Those claiming to be expert are mostly fortune tellers who have the idea,, the data,, but has biases and self interest.. They don’t do those analytics for nothing or for no one.. I do the same I can’t deny that and we all do it for reason..

I do invest and HODL for a long period of time until the right and comfortable price to sell.. No monitoring of price and let alone store in a safety wallet.. This is the only way we would create a barrier in our investment vs the negative emotions from a daily basis..

It is predictable with right data in hand and experts thinking about the whole stuff in smart way. Its not like that they make false assumption about the market but its about the uncertainty that comes in when their predictions turn out to be the worst one. That doesn't mean that the market is unpredictable at all. The markets values in specific range still can be predicted with in depth analysis of the graph and demand-supply equation. We have many data points such as mining operations, blocks, circulating supply, difficulty to mine and much more along with the time as dimension for diluting everything. That can make up the prediction fairly well but not the precise one.

It seems that you do not understand more about the market, so make arguments like this. Already said by forum residents on this above and you should rethink what they say, the market can not be designed to be predictable but speculation and history is needed to be legible but only 80% can not be read yeah.

Yeah right Bro! I feel a lot of people pay so much attention to the market now than they do the future of what they hold. Sure, nothing is predictable but acting wisely by either being an investor and forgetting about anything happening or become a learned trader and join with the fluctuations for your benefit.

Whichever way, complaining should not be one of the words in any investor's dictionary. It is a market, some will always have an upper hand, and those are the whales, but they cannot keep making money if all they want to keep doing is draining the market completely. That totally make the holders win all the time except we end up having a dead market in our hands.

strongly agree, today the market is very difficult to predict because people have changing properties so that the market always ups and downs prominently, but to avoid losing or if want to help to recover the market price we should continue to hold and never get easily panicked.

yes, actually for now the best thing to improve the bitcoin motion we have to keep holding it. we can imagine if every bitcoin holder for now can control the existing emotion to keep holding me feeling the bitcoin price movement will get better. the current situation is caused by some big players who just want to make their own profit.

Crypto is lacking new money largelry. Hence, Market manipulators have started playing with the market. They show fake volumes to lure both bear & bulls and squeeze both of them out. All these pumps and dumps are well organized by bots with a set algos which makes them hard to predict. In such a time, it's better to either go long term investment or do futures trading. Market is indeed not made to be predictable since the marketcap is way too low and there isn't a long trading history to conclude anything out of it.

I suggest you to take a look at the cartel theory.
It will open your mind a lot, trust me, and you will be very surprised that you are very right on this.

Anyway, i have always invested that money that i can afford to lose (no more than 30% of my entire capital) so i think that i am good with it.

First of all market only provides information about the currently situation of a product or in crypto. Market is only a market why did the OP think this way? It goes without saying. Market is not predictable in any manner it holds a mystery of gut feeling. The word "predicting"something comes from the fear of losing and sharing it to others to have an extra exposure in crytpo i guess.

I disagree with a lot of things that you said. first of all this is trading board so the discussions should be trading oriented not "HODL" mentality!

when smart money comes it, nobody even knows it. that is why it is called "smart money" when things get out of hand that is when the others are rushing in long after that smart money!

again, "smart money" comes back in when everyone else is experiencing depression and to put simply when you saw people say "bitcoin is dead".
... same way that smart money was getting out when you kept hearing people say "bitcoin to $50k".

although this is not trading related but I agree with this part. for those who are so panicky and confused about what they should do, the best option is to hold what they can afford to lose and forget about the short term trends.

there is certainly manipulation in the market but to say it is rigged and run by bots is just silly!

not necessarily true.
first of all holding what? bitcoin, yeah of course since there is a very good chance that bitcoin will recover eventually since it still has the same big potential to rise to a lot more than current prices.
altcoins? definitely not. that may just be my opinion but I don't see any potential in any of them for long term.
secondly when? at the start of the drops when the bear market is just starting it is a good idea to sell (remember this is trading discussion). that means acting fast based on the trend you see coming and then you should also act fast to buy back what you sold when you see it reaching the end of the drop. in this case not selling is a big loss. and selling means a huge profit!
but at the same time if you act too late, like selling when price is already at the bottom then selling in that case means a big loss.

Thank you Saidmod, I appreciate it! BTW, what is your BTC address, I'd like to compensate you for the generous gesture.

I already imagine how some traders had opened positions with a leverage, holded them since 8k, removed stop losses in order not to lose because "you lose when you sell" and got all their deposit burned with a red fire fueled with leverage. I hope that anyont who read this topic will be smart enough not to follow most of the great advices from this forum. This must be another important rule for all newbies.

I like this but it is not the only reason why i gave some merits. After all this will help to somebody or anyone who had not decided because of what happens in the market as mnay are afraid to loss big amounts but they sell and buy when it goes up. Selling is not good and we should know that we don't need to sell until the market recovers.

first,the market is not designed to be predictable nobody can deny it.
logically speaking,if the market is designed to be predictable.everyone will be rich right ? because we know what will happen and what is going on with it.
we're seeing a lot of people crying about it because they're looking for a quick money,
i believe some of you get into it because you knew some of your friend made a lot of money by holding it for a weeks,
and you want to do that.
but they did not hear what other people saying,like this;
Do not play something that you can afford to lose

if they heard it,none of them would cry that loud.because he know something like this might be happen.
and that is why we need something called financial management.

and the only thing that we need to do is this :
it is very simple,you will not lose it if you do not sell it.
that is it.

true..  Now it all boils down to people who can stand the test of time. I think this is all a big cycle which will work out in the end for Bitcoin and the blockchain technology. The only thing that bothers me is when this might happen since I believe that the worst is yet to come.

I've called this 2 years ago on my facebook. There were no signs of any regulations back then. Smart money (banks, wall st) came into the scene and rek everyone. Hell, we could even be in a recession after this. So what are your options? Just simply hold. Get a job and forget about your assets. You shouldn't have risked more then you were willing to lose anyway. Money is a very sensitive topic for most, but if you can control your emotions, and simply hold without paying attention to your investments, you should be fine. We all know the markets are rigged and ran by bot algos. Just hold your positions fellas, you don't lose anything until you sell.