Topic: The Monte Carlo fallacy (Read 422 times)

this has always been a common sense for people that truly uses their brain and make some big brain move a person could be racking loss for the 30th time and would still be racking for 60th time and so on even though the chance might seem likely less to happen but remember this monte carlo fallacy at every bet the chance of winning is always depending on the odd, in 50:50 situation where the chance is divided equally there's always chance that the range of number 1 to 10 the number 1 could appear at streak more than 10 times its all about chance as simple as that.
indeed some newbies are getting trapped with this fallacy and thinks that maybe if they losing streak 10 times in a row the 11th time would be them winning and therefore they overly compensating and go all in only to realize that they are wrong that they can be having a loss at some point.

thats the good thing with these psychological play, veteran would definitely figure out that such thing exists.

Truth is humans are way less logical and reasonable as they may like to believe, and it is easy to guess why, have you ever sit down to consider every single possibility that may happen due to your actions? And do you do this for every single thing you do? Hardly, if ever.

We simply do not have the time to do this, as often most of the decisions we take have to be taken in a matter of seconds, so we tend to go with our instinct on most situations, and while most of the time this is the right approach, there are instances in which this is a bad idea, and this fallacy is one of those instances.

Not everyone, gamblers who are not doing research and just bet do not know this and may have implemented this one way or the other, but since this is a fallacy and the Cambridge dictionary defines this as
it should be avoided gambling is a game of luck, and in-depth analysis if it's a sports betting

The most famous gambling fallacy

But until now it has persisted because gamblers are looking for probability and to justify a pattern until people believe that it won't work

Resource article :
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

I was a victim of this fallacy before, and I guess when humans are faced with dire events, they will always devise something to help get their minds at ease. The Monte Carlo fallacy is no different to that, as it's just a way of the human brain to 'cope' with unfortunate events giving them a false glimmer of hope that everything will be fine. No wonder people are losing tons of money to gambling; they give in to these instincts and let these overwhelm them over reason and logic.

It's theoretically a fallacy of generalization but in reality it does work out for most people. Maybe the theory has a lot to do with what happens with seasons of the year resulting in similar activities happening at every seasons of the year.

In the gambling context, some person has noticed that they normally win in their gambling at particular day of the week and would normally take gambling on set days seriously because it's their lucky day. Spending on their believe systems and whether or not it actually works well for the theory of Monte Carlo isn't fallacy at all.

This fallacy can't be true but works for those that have believed in it back in the days, talking about probability it's a very tactical issue to handle and the results is either a win or a loss and you know what that means,if your saying that whenever something ocgur in the past there's a tendency that the chances of reoccurring is on a low,I believe it's certainly a mode whereby casinos make more funds from gamblers because the mindset of the gambler's will be that have won in the past and countless time I don't think I'll win this.
It's otherwise reducing the high hopes of gamblers.
I believe not withstanding this fallacy of Monte Carlo there's a new leaf to it now and this fallacy don't work as it may seem anymore.

While what you say is true to some extent, I don't believe it is a 100% accurate statement.  For example, if you flip a coin any number of times, it will at some point if you go long enough be results of 50/50.  That means if you get WAY out of line with that, luck insists that it will balance out and thus the odds going forward must favor one to the other.  Does that mean you can predict the next flip or that the odds are necessarily higher?  Not really, but one also has to say that it does have slightly different odds otherwise a return to the odds of 50/50 couldn't be relied on to happen. 

If the first time the dice comes up as a two or a three then it can be less than that or any number. If I think that the first dice I get is a 2 or a 3 and the next I get a 6, then this assumption is definitely wrong because you can never say for sure what the next movement of the dice will be. 

When we play ludo and when we turn the ludo table and throw it in the center of ludo but we all expect six to come up but it doesn't happen many times same number keeps coming up again and again. The same number keeps coming up and every time we play all the time we expect six to come up but every time the opposite happens. But when six is less likely to come up or when it doesn't seem like six will come up then six comes up. 
If the gambler gambles with such misconceptions, then it can be said that he is taking a big financial risk.

My analysis is that people tend to confuse the difference between a series of events and individual events. The probability of coming out 10 times in a row red in roulette is tiny, but if it has come out 9 times red, in the next spin the probability is still about 50% (actually a little less, depending on the type of roulette). You don't bet on what happens in a series, you bet on what happens in an individual spin, hence the confusion.

I agee into your point on where those kind of pattern making will come out basing into your observation which same as you said. Just like the rest been saying that this is also my
first time on hearing out this kind of definition on which it is really that some new into our ears. Repetition of occurence of certain digit will really be giving out that kind of thinking
that the next digit would come out will really be those digits that havent been able come out and this is really a common assumption.

It would be that normal that you will really be betting on it on higher amount because you are assuming that you could be able to recover on what you have lost earlier.
Its a normal approach that you will be assuming that it will having those kind of next bet results might be something like this.

I don't know that it's been called the Monte Carlo fallacy all this time, but it's true that quite a lot of gamblers believe that certain events that have happened frequently will happen again in the future and they follow that pattern to be able to win at gambling. But I myself don't really believe in things that happened in the past and want to gamble on them, because I think logically that the games I play are based on algorithms. And it would be impossible that a previously occurring event would intervene in the game in the present and it could make me win the game when I bet on it or against it.

When you do gamble then you would really be having this kind of assumptions considering your brain would really be able to observe something on to those numbers that hasnt come out. I dont know that this one is called to me Monte Carlo fallacy or whatsoever kind of method you are really that mentioning. Considering this kind of behavior or strategy in mind then i dont see for it to be controlled. It does come naturally on having those
assumptions that it would might come out. This is why we would really be tending to chase it up and might be putting up that big bet on a number that hasnt come out yet. I have also tested out this kind of
approach towards gambling and same as yours on which i do end up on losing up more. Why? on the time that i do make or put up bets on the number with bigger amount because i do tend to chase
up those loses that i have done earlier.

However, while getting 1000 heads out of 1000 coin flips is very unlikely, the chances of this happening changes according to the number of times you do this.

So if for example you flipped a coin trillions of times the chances of a series of 1000 flips coming up as heads consecutively increases, and if you could increase that number of flips even further, you may come to a point in which getting that result becomes a certainty, so you have no way to know if the flips you are doing are in fact the ones that will come up with such an unlikely outcome.

Always keep in mind that with provably fair or RNG - random number generator = any previous outcome wont affect a future outcome.
For example, the previous outcomes of throwing a single dice were 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2.
On the next round, the probability of each number will always the same which is 1/6.
The probability/odds will always the same, no matter what the previous result was.

I don't play gambling games that depend on luck because I don't see any strategy that could be implemented, but when it comes to giving value to past events to use as data for decision-making in the present, I see that in sports betting the past events are very important that they are well memorized because they have a greater chance of happening, a team confrontation between both teams, we see that in the last 10 games, team X beat team Z in all of the last 10 games. In sports betting, this information is very important when betting on a team and if the person ignores this detail, they may run the risk of losing their bet.

This shows that in sports betting we look at past events that were repeated the most and based on that we bet that the past event that was repeated the most will be repeated again. At least in my case I have done my analyzes this way. Of course, I add other factors to the analysis such as the players' skills, injuries, coaches' skills, the results obtained at home and away from home in the last 5 games and when I look at this part of the results of the games played at home and away from home I'm quick pay attention to events that have been repeated the most, such as whether a team has had many consecutive games winning or not winning at home and away from home

It doesn't happen in gambling, every bet you made is start from 0, so the result will always be new and not looking to the past results.

If Monte Carlo fallacy exist, every gamblers who use martingale strategy must be rich because the last bet will make them able recover their past losses, it makes them have no way to loss if they keep gambling.

And, surprisingly, many people who have studied statistics and probability struggle to understand the basis of this fallacy: that there is a difference between calculating on beforehand vs when previous bets already happened.

If you calculate the probability to get 10 victories in a row, you have to multiply the probability of winning each bet ten times, so the answer is really low; but if you already got 9 victories, the probability of getting a 10th one doesn't rely on the past: it is unique, non-dependent on the other 9 victories. I like to call it a "reset" after each result.

I think this is not entirely misleading. More precisely, this is not a delusion, but a complex philosophical problem. Precisely philosophical, and not, for example, mathematical. And here there is a certain dialectical contradiction. On the one hand, of course, the result of each subsequent coin toss does not depend on the results of the previous one. But this also means that each coin toss has a 50% chance of landing heads. This means that in practice there is always the possibility that if we toss a coin 10,000 times, then all 10,000 times it may come up heads. However, in practice this is such a rare event that it is practically impossible. By the way, the logic that the same number cannot appear indefinitely many times is implicit in pseudo-random number generators.
       I think that if one of you tossed a coin even 1000 times and got heads 1000 times, then surely many would think that such a loss was not accidental. Surely the coin’s center of gravity is shifted.

I think this only happens for physical casinos because in online casinos there's this thing called RTP (return to player) so I guess when you think the next roll will give you back what you lost, it is possible.
Another example is when I play Keno. The most obvious to see is when you play high-risk games in a small amount of numbers picked.
Let's say 8 digits. The ratio of this is 9:1 or 10:1. 10 losses, 1 win. 6 digits will give you a multiplier of x270.
Now, when you play the game, it will not be that long before you lose x270 of your capital and then suddenly that same multiplier will come out. Some gamblers are running away at x200 loss without even thinking the RTP is coming and will give back either the ROI or just a bit of loss.
Now there are lucky gamblers who will hit that high multiplier twice just 100 bets but still, if they play longer the system will get it back making you either lose in a streak or slowly eat all your profits.
So I guess you could say that in 10 rounds of roulette, all is red, and the next one will probably be black because RTP will hit trying to give back what a gambler has lost.

I guess there are two points to consider here. First, the gambler's fallacy. It is indeed true that flips or rolls are independent of each other. Therefore, the previous results can't be a basis for future results. That's true. The second point is not related to the first. If you flip a coin 1,000 times and there's a 50:50 chance that heads or tails will come out, it can't be possible that all 1,000 flips would be heads. Logic is also the basis of this. This doesn't challenge the gambler's fallacy, though.

Or it could happen again, because base gamblers might think that the occurrence will be the same as before. But it's wrong mindset as we don't know what will be the outcome in the next roll of dice, so it's a trap.

And if gamblers knows this fallacy, then they should not fall for it and not think that there will be some effect on the future result based on what is happening the previous one. Hard to think about it, but we always love to find connection in gambling, but if by any chance you are correct, doesn't mean it will continue that trend so be very careful of it as you might bet big because you think it will happen again.

The gambler's fallacy is basically thinking that if something happened a lot before, it's less likely to happen again soon right? Like, if you've been rolling dice and getting low numbers, thinking the next roll is more likely to be high. But in reality each roll is independent and past outcomes don't affect future ones. Even though many gamblers especially the pros get this, it's easy to fall into the trap. It's all about probability, not luck or patterns. Being aware of this helps in making smarter choices in games and stuff. So next time you're tempted to believe the dice owe you a good roll because you've had bad ones, remember, they don't keep score haha

Just because someone believes it to be true and that it's impossible that it can never happen, doesn't discount the fact that gambler's fallacy is a fallacy, just because they take it into consideration doesn't mean that it will suddenly not become a fallacy, that's not how fallacies work if I'm right, they don't just lose that part because someone "considered". I wouldn't say that it's impossible that a coin toss will only result in heads (or tails) forever because it's a possibility too. Take for example 5 coin flips as a representation that infinite heads can be happen:

HHHHH
HTHHH
HTTHH
HTTTT
TTTTT
THHHH
TTHHH
TTTHH
TTTTH

This isn't the complete possibilities since there's 32 combinations out there for that flip, we just think that it's impossible because it can only happen once and it's just like any other combination but we're so used to patterns that we ignore that and consider it an impossibility because monotony in results is weird for us.

I know a little bit about the mechanics behind the math and how the gambling system work, so I figured out that all bets are unique and not linked to any previous bets.

You have a Client seed and Server seed and RNG and those things work together to determine the outcome of every individual bet you make.

Yes, there are also things like "Variance" and "RTP" ... but the individual outcome of each bet, is still unique and not linked to previous bets. 

Many people doesn't understand this idea. I remember a discussion with one of my friends a few years ago, and in the end I was unable to convince him about the fact that, once you have rolled the dice, flipped the coin, spinned the roulette... the next result has nothing to do with the previous ones. The most disturbing thing about the issue was that he has a degree in a field of science I won't mention (he has studied calculus, and probabilistic is taken for granted) and not only still falls in the Montecarlo trap, but is unable to see it even after an hour of intense debate.

If this pattern of thinking was to be true which obviously it's not because just as the name implies 'lallacy', but let assume it was to be a truism of a method that works at all many a gambler would have been making large some of profits from it closing down casinos and other gambling outlets.

Take the dice game from the op for instance, in an independent event like a dice game the actuality of the number 6 to be actualized just because lower numbers has been appearing frequently for the past games is not just guaranteed and Vis-a-vis the other way too. Just maybe the 6 number appeared it should be regarded as luck and nothing less of a pattern or a speculative strategy because it's all but fallacy for an independent event except otherwise.

It is a mistake that is often made not only by gamblers but by regular people as well, but it should not be surprising at all, probability is a deep subject which sometimes can be counterintuitive, and only until a very detailed and clear explanation is given people can get to understand why things are like that.

However once you understand what it is going on, it is easier to avoid such thoughts and to avoid making a mistake based on them.

It’s just an old version of gambling strategy which user increases bets when losing since they think the chance of winning will increase whenever their bets is losing. In reality each bet is independent so even though you experience tons of losses in the past there’s still a chance that you will experience it in the future except if you are continuously experiencing it without a win which means there’s something wrong on casino RTP.

There’s no trick about this but a mere belief dedicated to fool gamblers self to bet more despite losing already.

I play heads or tails. It never happened in the history of the game that the outcome will always be heads. There are only two possible outcomes, and it's impossible that tails will never come out in the entire duration of the game. That's why whenever the result has been heads for the past 8 or 10 consecutive tosses, it is expected that the bettors would be heavily betting on the tails. The basis may be fallacious or logical, but if they take into consideration that never has it happened that tails never comes out, then I guess that isn't a fallacy.

I also bet on cockfighting and the same is true. It is either the favorite or the underdog. But never has it happened that in the entire derby only the favorite wins. That's impossible.

It's not logical or normal if it has a fallacy in it. It's not in literal sense that it's a gambling related too I think, it's more like some kind of assumption fails that lead to conclusions that are baseless and at the same time really wrong because the conclusion was non-existent in the first place. For me, this is just some kind of psychological phenomenon at best, we need to cope after all with what is happening.
That's still fallacy because you assume that the outcome would be different because of the assumption that there's a pattern but in mathematical sense, it's just that there's not a lot of possible outcomes in dice so the likelihood of consecutive rolls of the same results is higher than most.

When things happen frequently it is likely to be a coincidence and people might mistake it for belief, and they will assumes that history will always respect itself where as it was just a coincidence. For me there is nothing like such, whatever thing that happens, happens coincidentally except otherwise using (Black magic).  When we where younger we play dice game, we cast a dice to a table and call a certain number, like asking 6 or 5 to show up, and eventually the number comes up. We might do it 3 to 4 consecutive times and yet it will come up but that doesn't mean history repeating itself. If any body want to study it, you might end up studying and endless journey, Because all are facility and emagination

I was also fall into this trap before but not now, It's like some normal instincts from other perspective,so I decided to follow my own insticts too. and if you always rely on that strategy, there is a big possibility that you will be exhausted, as if you are just following the flow of the game and you are no longer the one who decides on your own bet because it is already imprinted in your mind that you need to use a different strategy you to win but in the end, your guess is not correct.

You know, I have read much about Martingale here in the gambling section and most of people agree that as strategy seems to only work if the person has a very big bankroll to wager and and exponentially increase their risk. In my opinion, such "strategy " is just a fruitless way to try to beat dices and it would drain the pockets of the average gambler in a single session.
Though, since in this thread we are talking about patterns or the recognition about patterns, a more suitable example would be how people who like dices (like me) notice when there have been many consecutive wins in a row, which leads to change the wager or the strategy.

I happened to me once: I was playing dices and noticed I was having a good row of wins with an intermediate multiplier, I got 5 or 6 positive results with about 20$ and then, I thought I was going to start to lose money because of how many good rolls I have had by then, so I started to decrease by wager to 5$ or 1$. I know that move from my part does not make any statistical sense, but that is how the human brain works, I guess. In the end, it did not matter as I lost my money anyways, to my bad luck striking again.  

We tend to think that streaks should balance out in the long run, but every outcome in a random event is completely independent. Each dice roll, coin toss, or roulette spin has the same odds, regardless of what happened before.

Imagine flipping a coin, if you get heads five times in a row, it might feel like tails are due next. But that's not true, each flip is like a new coin, with a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails.

I also fall into this trap but not always. But I think it's normal and even logical to a certain extent to commit this. Although it is indeed a fallacy to assume that the next roll will be different because the previous series of rolls are the same, it is also next to impossible for all the rolls to be the same.

In a dice game, for example, it is hard to happen that the rolls would all be <50 all throughout your session, so that if there are already 15 consecutive <50 rolls, it is probably wise to bet on >50 on the next roll. Again, it isn't necessarily a logical bet but it is very rare for all the rolls to continue hitting <50 until the end. It will be different at some point.

It does sound like sensible advice not to take unreasonable expectations but my natural thinking is to imagine an average outcome and a reversion to mean.   Dice roll is a good example I suppose because it will be independent and different every time presuming the dice is perfectly unbiased.

A bad example for this rule would be cards played from a deck where the cards seen do influence the odds of other cards appearing because its a limited set and they are all related.  Still we can never know for sure and most of us cant properly calculate the odds to a useful extent.   I do go from my experience playing previously though and Ive played alot of hands of Poker and I dont think I'm too far off in my reckoning most games though its always random true enough

People taking the martingale "strategy" or even the reverse martingale strategy will often do so under the impression that eventually, they will win.
Well here's the thing, these strategies only work if you have unlimited money.

So really, chances aren't on anybody's side. Something will get to you. Perhaps the realistic chance of getting many consecutive losses, max wins, max bets etc...
It's best to just play gambling with amounts that are irrelevant. Then you don't have to worry about losses.

I think it's a phenomenon that everyone falls for it, even those who are really that experience. Most of the time we try to find patterns in this random world and says that we have broken the system. But it's not gamblers fallacy is one of the worst if we are going to believed it in. For example the table card of baccarat, wherein there are a lot of supposedly pattern, i.e. big eye, alternating Player and Banker pattern, etc.

So if you fall for this trap, it will end up very bad. So it's really a game of chance, either you win or lose and it's base if you are lucky or not. If we have patterns and it's effect then casinos could have gone bankrupt already as any can beat them with this supposedly method of identifying certain patterns.

That's just a fallacy and nothing more, in actual gaming nothing like that happens and most of the gamblers are sure examples to prove that. This fallacy brings fake hope in the minds of the gamblers and they think that it's a strategy. Sometimes we see consistent sixes in dice while other times we may see consistent 1's, and that proves the phenomena of Monte Carlo Fallacy is just a part of someone's imagination and not a part of reality.

This is probably the speculated to come as it's due to come.
This is just like the person who kept buying the same combination on the lottery ticket that he had been betting on for months and he thinks his combination will be the next to come because it is due to come after all he is betting the same combination for months.

The dice rolls under six several times and it's sure to roll on six over time. But for for lottery, its one-in-a-million chance.

If we talk about probability then a number that has not come out will have a higher chance in the next round, but we don't know when the number will come out and we need to wait for how many rounds. But I'm not too sure about tricks like that, especially since online gambling usually uses hashes, it would be more difficult to predict.

Like the Martiangel trick which increases the bet by half when we lose in the previous round, but there are times when we lose continuously and increase the bet continuously and if the balance is no longer enough, then in the end the balance will run out before the win comes.

I don't believe in tricks, I prefer to use feelings

Personally I don't believe in such analysis. As it is called... fallacy, and so it won't work for everyone. I don't rely on the occurrence as such. If a dice produces the number 6, it doesn't mean the next number to produce is likely to be lower than it or if it has produced the frequency of 6, it may still repeat it or some number lesser. I only see luck to it and not probability or mathematical calculations.

However, I know that so many people still believe in some things that they use as a sign for profitable gambling or to indicate when the loses will come. But if this is the case that they are always accurate then we will have more gambling winners than people complaining of risk and loses in gambling .

I have had heard about it, but I did not know it was called the Monte Carlo fallacy. To me it is just the basic instinct of the human beings to try to find patterns and relations between the events which have occurred in the past and those which may occur in the future.
There is not much to say about it, I think. We just need to keep our heads cold and do not allow our greed to mix up with pattern recognition, otherwise, it would be easier for us to fall into following cues which are not actually even there while gambling.

The Monte Carlo fallacy is easy to counter if one take a look and study basic statistics, there is when one realizes how the perceptions we have on numbers resulting on a dice session or a roulette session do not have any scientific base.
There is not truly a difference between trying to find fake cues while gambling and using charms or magic to try to earn money off the casino. 

 Hi community,

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, is the mistaken belief that if a certain thing has happened more frequently than usual during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it is otherwise proven that the probability of such events occurring is not It depends on what happened in the past. Such events, which are historically independent, are referred to as statistically independent. For example, the next dice roll is likely to be a six because the number of dice has recently been lower than the usual number of six.

Perhaps the majority of gamblers know this , especially the professionals and old-timers. Personally, I always fall into this trap.

-What is your analysis about this trick?