Topic: The most important part of investing in bitcoin is timing. (Read 5597 times)

If you invest just because it is low at that time but you don't analyze the market, you could lose profit on the instant if market continues to go down. If it takes a long time to recover then you have no choice but to hold it until it recovers and you gain some profit. If you know how to analyze the market then you'll surely know the right timing to buy.

Timing is really a great help for us investors when to take an entry and the best exit. Without it, we will always end up losing. But with timing, knowledge and patience, there are still high chances that we will gain good profits in bitcoin even if its market is hard to predict.

I have posted a historical chart that demonstrates how timing is KEY to crypto investing. Take a look if you want to see how bitcoin works:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-creation-cost-vs-price-finding-the-real-bottom-5177729

I hope everyone is having a great day!

This thread is about understanding timing, not gambling about when to come in. 3300 is a good point to invest because that is the price the miners invest. 13000 is a terrible time to invest because that is the time the miners are SELLING.

It is not about commiserating about losses. It is about helping people understand how to find the correct time to invest.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

Agree with you, patient is the most important key in trade or holding coin. Bitcoin or crypto currency market is really too much sensitive. Only a big news can crash the market in a day. So if you thing that timing is the most important thing for bitcoin then i think it's not a smart move.

What you call as timing is rather called as the entry and exit points in technical terms and yes it does matter to entry and exit at the righ time to take out good profits.
Most of the people who lose money investing in crypto probably exit at the wrong time. Rather than panic selling at wrong exit times you could just hold the coins patiently until it returns you some profit or at least a no loss no profit target. This is where many people tend to make mistakes. I have learnt this late but once I got to know this I have never ever sold in a loss, just held on until profits.

the determination of time for bitcoin is now the absolute and main thing. now the right time to make profit is easily obtained and it's the best step. because bitcoin prices increase and decrease every time, so choose the right time

As for me, time and patience are identical concepts (regarding investment).Spending time and patience, is difficult to guess where is the stop! Someone talks about the price of Bitcoin $ 100,000, someone says that its price is 0.

simple tips is buy when price is low, sell when price is high.

when you want to invest, never put all of your money, save some for you. learn all about it, experience is better than the other. know your own risk, never be careless when you take decision. make research in what coin is the best for future, and be patient.

That's is true timing and focus is the best how to earn in bitcoin investment of course konwledge and understanding to be include is the best way to earn profits.



Small or high capital is both profitable depends on the holders want to earn profits to execute timing decision to invest.

This applies to both Cryptocurrency and Stock Market however it needs to be come wit thorough research as well. Once you bought a coin, you need to plan when to exit, you cant just say I will hold on to it for a long period of time, there has to be a goal and timing should be perfect or else instead of you gaining profits, you will end up loosing more.

I agree with your opinion! Many people are still making a false belief in bitcoin investment. They think that investing only a high capital will make them profitable. I believe that if you have a perfect timing in investing in cryptocurrency, you can get a much profits than those who are impulsive buyers. If you can wait and know when the time to execute, a lot of tendency that you win every trades.

Unless you are investing at a peak in the market lol then you are just throwing your money away.

If you don't understand creation cost you are choosing to gamble your money away in bitcoin. It is the only way to know if it is high or low.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

In my opinion, I don't really think one need to invest in Bitcoin and wait for a long time before you can make profit from your investment in Bitcoin. A week or month investment in Bitcoin with huge sum of money can earn money that will change your financial situation and story in your life time.

Bitcoin is also good for trading as soon as now, BTC dominance is great and many guys take a decision to exchange their tokens to Bitcoin.
The main cryptocurrency owners can earn on these exchange operations. In this case, it will be better to leave part of BTC for holding, and the rest can be used for trading speculations.

Both variants can work well if they are combined.

That is provably false, and I am not sure if that link you posted is safe.
Your "advice would lead someone to buy a bitcoin at $19,500 in Dec 2017 and "forget it forever". That is very similar to much of the faulty advice that most people receive in bitcoin and crypto. Simply buy into something without any knowledge of it, throw it in a drawer, and forget it. Completely reckless.

Miners, investors, traders, governments, and institutions all have the capacity to manipulate the price of bitcoin.

Check out my site if you want actual information not strange advice like "forget it forever":

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

The most important part of bitcoin investment is patience, and patience and patience, invest and lock your private keys, and forget it forever, and remember my friends there is no way anyone weather it is miners, or traders, investors, can manipulate the price of bitcoin.

This timing is difficult to be defined otherwise everyone would be rich.
It is needed an excellent technical analysis and knowledge of many factors that would impact the price. If you don't have such information you would probably lose the correct timing.

very, very true. The creation cost is the way you make more money, and understand the market. Optimization of entry and exit points, understanding what is happening, that is what you get with creation cost.

It really isn't hard to catch. If you know what the whales are doing you can easily see their movements. The whales make the market, I track the whales. I tell people what the whales are doing. 

See how it works here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Timing is hardly to catch, yes we can set what was the best time for us in investing crypto and it is all our discretion that to say that we are in the right timing. For me, It'll be the right time to buy bitcoin at first quarter this year, imagining how it was today, we are certainly be gaining more than 100% but some of us we're getting let before the train started to run.

Bitcoin timing is very important to gain profits if we make investment at low price at 3000 dollars we would have gain profit three times by now

Investing needs timing?
You mean trading right?
Investing, you wait and let it marinade. Trading you buy at a right time then sell.
I do see that is what you are doing. You are confusing the two or just trying to merge them.
If it works for you then it is okay but it doesnt really work for most of the time.
Panic comes and also FOMO. From holders they become traders. I dont think there is much right now who is really into investing with crypto currencies.

Right timing match with correct sum of money to invest on to me are the major factors that should be considered. Nobody knows when the next bull runs will come and this is exactly reason why many people always say you should buy when the price is deep but not knowing when is the right time to buy and how deep to be considered. Investing with a little amount of money might not helps now because the percentage rise the price may not be that big like it was in the past.

The best time to trade Bitcoin, to maximize the probability of profit.
You can start trading one hour after the Asian session is opened to reduce the risk of "falling gap" on the chart, due to the shocking news that can cause prices to rise or rise in seconds. However, high trading volumes during work time in Korea and Asia, in general, provide a conducive space for transactions (buy or sell).
Before the Asian session closes at 7:00 GMT (14:00 WIB), European traders get ready. They read any info that has driven prices in the Asian session, to prepare for the Bitcoin trading position in the European session. Even though you also have trading opportunities at these times, the movements are somewhat unpredictable.

Overlap Session (Europe and parts of America)
Get ready around 09: 00-16: 00 GMT (16: 00-23: 00 WIB). Forex traders of course know this might be the busiest traffic jam, because the American news released around 1:30 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. (20: 30-22: 00 WIB) can be very dangerous. But in the world of crypto currencies, the number of markets that will begin to decrease is because transaction activities in Asia have subsided. There may be important news that can spin and the price of coins can change, but remain in a limited level. An important part of cryptocurrency activity in Overlapping sessions occurs in the Bay Area, the area around the Gulf of San Francisco, in California.

Relatively Quiet American Market
This session takes place from 18:00 - 23:00 GMT (01:00 - 06:00 WIB). After important moments on the West Coast and Asia at night pass, all markets will usually calm down. Sometimes, this time is too quiet to predict trading opportunities, but the risk of unpleasant surprises also decreases. Approaching the opening of the Asian session, there may be catalysts from countries such as Australia and New Zealand. However, the risk of price shock only occurs when the cycle repeats and the Korean market starts to get busy again.

When trading Bitcoin on weekends, pay attention to Asian sessions
Unlike forex, the Bitcoin market exchange stays open on weekends. During Saturday and Sunday, we may see high volatility. However, the surprising movement was more dependent on the existence of a significant news release. In general, the chances of surprise are more awake in the Asian session.
If you want to anticipate, it should be noted that the market conditions between 23:00 - 3:00 a.m. (00: 00-10: 00 WIB) may be more turbulent. Usually, trading volume may be lower, and price surprises can arise due to low liquidity. Therefore, 15: 00-23: 00 GMT (10: 00-18: 00 WIB) is the wisest time to trade on weekends.

Trade Bitcoin on a Market that is Trending
A market that is trending is a market that is heading in a certain direction. The market can have a bullish, bearish or sideways trend. Trending markets can provide many trading opportunities for technical analysts. Technical analysts will map the price patterns of a market to identify the trend direction for placing positions.
Investors can also follow the direction of market trends that serve as a benchmark for certain security. Trending markets are the main focus in technical analysis. Technical analysts believe that market trends occur in predictable repetitive patterns. The ability to recognize trends correctly can have a big impact on the results of Bitcoin trading.

Market Characteristics Trends
First and foremost, we need to know how to identify a trendy market. Many traders complain of difficulties in understanding this method for years, even though the concept is very simple.

********************NEWEST UPDATE*********************
Ok bitcointalk! I have been hard at work over this last week. I have just put the finishing touches on my site!

I will be posting a new topic soon about how to identify pricing bottoms by utilizing the creation cost. It needs a couple more revisions, but it will be ready today or tomorrow.

Here is the link to my site again:

https://www.amsinger.org

As always I love your opinions and criticism. You need friction to make fire

Aaron

P.S. The next client research will be covering the price volatility increases when bitcoin is high above the creation cost.

*******************************************************

Bad timing will have bad for your lucky with bitcoin and altcoin investment, always check when is correct and good timing for investing your money in bitcoin or altcoin if want to earn profit.

I have everything easier. I decided to invest every month in cryptocurrency and will do it for 2-3 years. Any situation in the market suits me.

In an unpredictable market, it's highly improbable to guess the right time to invest in bitcoin, it's Infact almost impossible to accurately forsee that the price would be at X price at a particular period of time, even satoshi wouldn't be able to accurately predict that. You can speculate and be lucky though, but depending on luck is a risky venture.

The most important part should be investing with a minimum(little)amount and patiently wait to accrue profit.

When you say the word of " Most important " it means this is the top priority that we must do as a traders.
For me, in my own point of view Patience is much more ahead of it. Sometimes, there lot of players in trading doesn't know
if it is the right time to sell or buy, so for them not to loss their holdings to make them safe and lessen their risk level
they need to apply patience, because what if their timing was wrong?

It needs timing of course but not as much needed compared to trading.

When you are investing and you still see the potential of bitcoin to grow, you would not hesitate because investing in bitcoin in order to gain good profits, you need to consider it a long term investment. Bitcoin is in the early stage, the market is not yet fully regulated and we will be going to that situation in the long run so bitcoin is still volatile and cheap now. All we have to think is its adoption, it will increase but the total coins in circulation will not increase.

In my understanding, the fact that investing in bitcoin takes time means that bitcoin can bring real profit only after a certain time. Because it shows itself well in the long term.

Thats right, if you dont do this both then you will lead to losses. Because investing in bitcoin needs more time to spend and to wait even for a long time, so that you will earn a profit. Because investing in bitcoin is risky.

More profitability for long term investment when you invest on coin that in market for a long run and has high potential of growing. You have to create your own luck on timing you set you for it. Always check the market then decide to invest or wait more time.

Thanks OP. My take away from your initial post is "TIMING" It's very essential knowing when to always get out in everything we do in life. It's called, "Bowing out when the ovation is loudest." A lot of us got carried away in 2017 when Bitcoin had a great run and refused to sell off before the ultimate crash began in January 2018. It's pure greed that makes people want more, even when it's obvious there's nothing more to squeeze out. However, on the cost calculation stuff you mentioned there, I think it's really not necessary knowing all that before one can take one's profit or exit a trade. Just know your risk appetite. That's all.

Yes, we should always wait for the right time because all of the things will go well.


Good for you, long term investment is good and pure profit than having a short term investment which is very risky.

Luck is one thing. Being in at the right time based on understanding the market is a completely different thing.

Bitcoin is down another $600.

https://www.amsinger.org

I would say the most important part of investing in bitcoin is just doing it. We are going to see some massive gains in the next 2 to 3 years and anyone who buys in now will make money in the long run. Timing is irrelevant when taking a long term approach.

Timing is more or so a luck thing .
I think the most important thing about investing in Bitcoins is actually *Patience*

There is a famous quote in the trade market
  *The market takes money from the people who are quick to sell and give it to the patient one's *

I think this actually accounts for Bitcoins as well .
You can use your trading charts and at the same time you can , use websites to predict the prices but at the same time you should remember that it is Bitcoins ..

You cannot predict anything.

No need to be a rocket scientist to understand bitcoin investing because everything comes in good timing and patience as well in order to make profit in this volatile market we are having. Just a simple hold will do then sell if time is right and buy again for put back and hold again, just like that and we are all winners in the end.

Timing is really essential when investing into bitcoin. Bitcoin's value is very volatile so if you got the wrong timing your investment amount could decrease in fiat value in just few hours. If you'll invest in bitcoin, you must do some reseach first or read some recent news to find out if it's a good time to buy.

I think that many who invested in cryptocurrency at the peak of growth in 2017 have already understood how important time and the ability to adequately assess the situation. If you have invested in Bitcoin now, then you need to understand that it can take a very long time before you can earn on your investments. But this expectation will be justified.

Thanks so much everyone for your opinions and views!

I am setting up a complete redesign of the site, and I will be back in around a week with all new research and probing bitcoin questions.

The site will be down while I make all the upgrades and rebalance the scales.

Bitcointalk is one of the few places where you can go to meet crypto people. I am honored to speak and share my data and views with you all!

Love and hard work,

Aaron

In his example , he is talking about periods of time from few months to year. It cant be considered day trading.


On the matter on his webpage and services. I dont understand why these kind of services should be needed if his investment calculations and predictions are so good, why he is not making money himself with those tactics.

It is truth, it's pretty interesting that investing is normally seen as both when in reality it isn't because being a trader and an investor is not the same thing at all.

As the hashing rate adjusts then it will be really easy to predict the outcome of Bitcoin in the future in any given time, then you can take accurate decisions based on it, especially when we hit the cap. Right now, it isn't relevant at all.

With trading of course, there's always a luck factor involved, that factor decides the outcome of any money input you put in, it then will decide if you ultimately get profit or not, it is definitely not set in stone, that's why i don't like it. No matter how good you get it, there will be always some luck factor involved.

Life is easier, people just makes it complicated.

Great risk or you don't know how to consider selling to get back the part you invested, in this market, it is necessary to have a good strategic strategy and not to whirl through this market, the risk will be Falling and luck will happen this year.

Indeed, I also believe in consistency, being inactive on the platform might result in a loss of profit, coins changed its value from time to time so we should catch up to the opportunities or chances to earn more.

Timing is the most important thing about investing in bitcoin or altcoin, without have good timing maybe will be lost much money by investing in bitcoin and altcoin investment, always take good timing before investing your money.

It seems to me that you did nothing in vain when you sold your property only to buy Bitcoin.  Moreover, do not take any credit, because you regret it.  Who wants to ask you why you decided to buy Bitcoin when its price was $ 4,000, and not when it went down to $ 2,500?

I have the timing these recent dumps, but it is not the best for as I don't the money, no one wants to lend me to buy BTC when I had the chance. I sold my accessories just to buy Bitcoin when it was only 4K USD, and now I am still holding. IF only I had the money back then I could have rested from this depressing and yet exciting trend. you must have the money and timing that is what I am saying.

That is true but..

Bitcoin is a volatile cryptocurrency. In investing, it is true that you need those timings that could really give you profit but the thing here is that there are a lot of times that Bitcoin goes up and goes down and it is not the same as other investments that is why you need to track the price chart at all times since, with the fast-changing tide, you might miss the right time to ride it.

You know timing is most important in investment or trading. For instance now a days, bitcoin has a high price, can you buy bitcoin now?
Yeah, you can, but in this wise you should wait for a long time to earn big profit. But if you buy bitcoin previous 3 months ago, then now you are still in profit, and if you will wait for more one month, its mean you will get big profit from bitcoin, that's why timing is most important than patience. 

cocoadreamboy, you reply to most of post - but for some reason you did not reply on my post, cat got your tongue?

First you need to learn how to use forum (read rules), for start use multi-quoting and stop promote your site in almost every post. Only thing you will get from such behavior will be ban from mods.

---

People think that there are experts who can say when to buy / sell, they do not really want to think with their head. The OP is trying to present itself as some kind of expert, and until a few months he did not know the basics of trading with cryptocurrency. There are many naive people who believe in everything, but they should know that there is much better ways to spend money, then throw it on such services.

Since you like challenges that brings you to investing in cryptocurrency because in here lot of challenge awaits you from the start that market slowly falling or even in big dumps

That’s what I consider timing from buying when the market fading like what happen early this year,all who had purchase from $3,000 level is surely in high profit now of 300-400% gross

Back in time,you are just become lucky investing in May 2017 in which the start of the great pump when the highest price of this coin has been recorded

I've always been curious myself: what makes people think others would want to pay them money for snake oil that repeatedly proves itself to be poison, and even more curious, what actually makes people pay for it?!

Out of that curiosity I took up several "Free promos" for these paid groups. Trials, and what not. Most never even responded or muted me when presented with proof that they actually lost money. One particular one did respond by saying I "literally" chose the worst possible 3 months for a trial. This same guy has messaged me probably 5 more times in the past year warning me his Paid Group is closing for good to new members.

People should just pick micgoosen's threads and follow that prediction;)

your history suggests otherwise.
so far you have looked at the price and when it makes a move and is done with it, you come here and predict a price in a direction that is already over. for example recently we had a drop where you started talking about big fall down to a much lower price but when the price drop was already over and we were even starting to rise back up!

That's perfect timing in the market, and maybe you bought a lot of bitcoin that time that gives you more profit. Its not easy to timing the market, but you can analyze that well especially when everyone is fear to buy bitcoin that means its dumping. We have different goals with bitcoin, I myself do saved a lot of bitcoin for long term holding but some traders are just playing it almost everyday because they are satisfied with the short term profit and its still fine for them.

none of the things you mentioned here can be measured because you simply no way of knowing if any of these are happening or not. for instance you have to way of knowing whether a miner is selling his coin or keeping it even if you watch their addresses! so in fact you are "operating on wishes and stars"
by the way the big miners have contracts with the electric companies, they can't pull out of it anytime they want to use the money for electricity for something else.

Timing bitcoins destruction of the altcoin market and making million of investors poverty stricken is super important for holders of HST decision token 

The best thing to remember is that Bitcoin is going to become bigger someday. A lot of people are asking, is this the right time to buy Bitcoin? I am torn between saying yes and no. No, because these days are bullish days for Bitcoin, which means it is a bit pricey. But then yes also because even if it is indeed more expensive than just a month or two ago, it will sure become more and more expensive in the months to come. So the most important thing here is HODL, no matter your buy time.

I just joined in this March for $ 3,000 and now it's $ 12,000. I'm happy about this. time for us all.

I made this so everyone can replicate what I did in 2017. Wouldn't you like to learn from someone who 10Xed even with some newbie mistakes.

You said this all because you are one of the lucky guys who entered cryptocurrency not in the best time but still a good time and you already earned a lot and you will lost nothing even bitcoin drops back on 2-3k, please put your self on others shoes that invested on bitcoin in the price of almost 20k and you will understand.

Timing? yes I agree but no one knows when is the best time thats what people want. (this is for long term investors only) for traders in my opinion its always a good time to invest with bitcoin.

When bitcoin reach 3k deep this year I really want to buy at least 2 but cant afford it that time.

Agreed! Thanks for the post.

Timing implies patience, but with knowledge. To be patient is to sit next to a pond for 24 hours. To have timing is to go to the pond when the fish are most hungry.

https://www.amsinger.org

I agree with you that an important aspect for an investor is time and patience.  but you say that many investors get small profits, I understand that they are impatient and time determines them, but besides that, they must be able to predict every market volatility.  so they can decide, hold or sell or buy.  so, 3 aspects for investors are time, patience, and market analysis.

If not selling is your main problem then you really have a big problem and shouldn't even be here. If you were a smart person you wouldn't care. Most people did not sell at the peak but even more did not have any bitcoins at that time. You should realize that you are in that 1% of people who had the opportunity to buy in 2017.

Appreciate that you had bitcoin and profited. Being hit hard by a bear market with unrealized profits is nothing. Think of the people who bought at the peak and got hit. You got lucky and lost something you never had.

There are very few "small" price changes in bitcoin. Even now it is 50% up month over month. If you are not aware you can get into danger.

It certainly is. The ability to exit the market at the right time is very important. But investors have different goals. Someone invested in the long term and it don't care small price changes. This will be important for traders.

That is why I am trying to spread actual financial information about bitcoin. It doesn't exit anywhere else, and I would be lost without it.

Bitcoin is a financial tool that can bring massive profit or loss. If you don't use this information to understand it, your money grows or dies on the whims of the whales.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

Timing is very necessary in every business that is controlled by demand and supply and bitcoin trading isn't an exception

Time is the most important factor in investing, not just bitcoin or cryptocurrency but generally. That's why analysis both fundamental and technical are very important factors that cannot be overlooked.

Thanks paid troll! Thanks for demonstrating your capacity for civilized thought!

Kisses!

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

P.S. How dare I try to get people to utilize numbers and cash flow to understand bitcoin. How DARE I. lol

Very true, but you need numbers and awareness to actually understand timing. Without knowing the fundamental cash flow and creation cost you are wishing on stars.

Aaron

False analogy. My system is basically watching someone buy quantities beer and a cake and using that information to gauge how big and fun the party will be

You have used no numbers or logic, simply false analogies.

https://www.amsinger.org

So instead of using timing numbers to know the perfect entry point, you are claiming people who bought a single bitcoin at 20K in 2017 simply need to be patient EVEN MORE. lol They could have bought 6 bitcoins and a vacation if they had waited until December

Patience gets you one over-priced bitcoin, timing gets you 6 bitcoins and a vacation I know what I would choose.

https://www.amsinger.org

It seems like many people on here operate on wishes on stars and prefer to operate on wishes. You claim I am conspiracy, but I simply use numbers to understand a complex thing such as bitcoin. Miners have a plethora of ways to manipulate the markets such as choosing to hold coins instead of sell them, shutting off machines in order to use the electricity money to short, over clocking their systems, spreading rumors, hiring trolls

You wouldn't know anything about that last one would you

Aaron

yeah, he crawled out of the speculation board into the main board for advertising. what i am curious about is whether anybody have ever bothered paying him any money. it is not just that selling this kind of services like this doesn't interest anybody but also because he is dead wrong about all his speculations and so far topics that i have seen from him where he was guessing a price has been way off the mark!

Timing is everything for bitcoin investments but then again, you cannot time the markets, so it's pretty hard to tell when should one be pulling the triggers and when would one take it slow. But for the past 10 years, bitcoin is still on an upward journey, so if one is patient enough to wait a couple of years, then perhaps their investments would have gone up so high and take a handsome profit in the end. Then again, we know that people are tempted to collect profits whenever it already knocks at our door, and who wouldn't take that chance right?

actually the most important thing is patience. it doesn't matter if you were late to sell, as long as you wait to wait someday prices will rise again. so start being patient now because bitcoin has started to rise again. and always remember to set the time and target to sell.

OP is just promote his site, just look at his post history : https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/cocoadreamboy-2329711

I do not see any advantage of buying subscription to your analysis, what you can or can not predict is something very elementary and basic. What you say about 2017 / 2018 is beginner misunderstanding mixed with greed.

In May 2017 you put money in bitcoin - price was from $1300 to $2300 at the end of May. Then you say that your "portfolio got hit hard", especially in November when price of 1 BTC was from $3700 to $6500, so how you "got hit hard" if you buy in range from $1300 to $2300?

You did not lost anything from time you invest until this day, and you can only be sorry if you sold in time when some "experts" say that price will go down to $1000.

Timing and patience are just both important and will make you earn more profit with timing alone or patience alone. Let's stop comparing these two strategies and just apply them both. Without timing, it will be hard for us to recover our money if the red days come. And without patience, we might lose the funds if the market goes red since we might think that there is no hope for the coin to develop.

Investing in the right time is indeed only a part of the work. Selling before the price declines are important, but sometimes it is hard to do that. I didn't sell at the end of 2017, and I basically lost that money. At first, I didn't sell because the price was going up, and the transaction fees seemed too high to me. And then, when the price started going down, I thought it was a mere correction, something that'll pass soon...
Risk assessment is very important, but I am no expert on how to do that and whether it's even possible with something as unpredictable as Bitcoin. I am not sure your intuitions about the costs and the risks are right, but thanks for sharing your website that has info on this matter!

In a broader perspective, day trading may also be considered as short-term investing. Although most investors have set their goals in their investments, there are times that they tend to withdraw their investments depending on the current market situation. Short and long-term investments have different time schemes but they rely on the same objective, which is to profit.


Before you invest, always consider your current capital and limitations. With cryptocurrencies as our primary investment, make sure that you leave at least a portion of your capital because of its high volatility. You'll never know when its price may pump or decrease!

It is obviously right timing isn't working in all investors. In some cases that investor never risks their money at the bear season as they usually think that it will get worse in the coming day but the are actually wrong and they are just losing the chances that could be doubling their money counts.
This to look that if we are investing early this year, we are making it huge but its too late to realize. It means that we are in wrong timing if we are investing today.

I don't remember the exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure Bitcoin at any point in 2018 still had a higher price than Bitcoin in May 2017. Bitcoin didn't even hit $5k until like the last quarter of that year.

Either way, like most of the other posters, I don't buy into the theory that Bitcoin prices are dictated by mining costs. If miners could dictate prices, they'd almost literally be printing money.

you have found the link and you are correct about the connection between bitcoin price and the cost of mining but you have made the common mistake of looking at that link in reverse direction. and the result is going to always be you getting to the party way too late because you are looking at the result of price rise and think it is the cause of price rise. it would be like finding the half eaten cake and the empty beer bottles and then conclude there WILL be a party in the future whereas the party is already over and you are seeing the result of it!

If the issue is Bitcoin investment, yes timing is important, patience. But the most important thing for the Altcoins is timing!

I agree. My brother was one of those lucky investors who invested in bitcoin when it was $1100 and he'd been very patient and at the same time well aware of the market, which helped him to predict the market trend but having said that the crypto market is highly unpredictable and it's a high risk. Gotta be brave and smart in taking risks where the idea of loosing wouldn't freak you out but rather will teach something new.

that's right bro. but there is also more important, namely capital to invest, especially money. because I myself have experienced it a few weeks ago. I see BTC prices going up
. but I have lacked capital. because my capital is running low because the price of the coins that I buy always goes down in price.

I am curious on how you would be able to predict the "timing" of the Bitcoin price.    This beast does not follow the rules and it is not predictable at all.... the price might spike upwards and then a short recovery period will follow and then it will go much higher again or we might see a 80% drop in the price like we did in 2018/2019 with a much longer recovery period. 

One thing I have learned from Bitcoin is that predictions is total bullshit and people claiming to know what the Bitcoin price will do, is also guess work. 

Let's discuss, I want to see if you are the real deal or another snake oil salesman. 

I disagree, as an investor the most important part of investing in bitcoin should be patience, timing comes second. Timing only plays a major role or works when you're a trader or speculative investor, investing for just a short period of time. For example, we have bitcoin enthusiasts who did invest when bitcoin was around $400-$1000 (you can call that perfect timing) but today due to lack of patience most of those investors don't have a single bitcoin due to impatience some might have sold at lost or little profit. As it's commonly said, "investors don't wait to buy (timing), they buy and wait (patience)".

More conspiracy nonsense. Miners have no way to manipulate prices. Your only evidence of manipulation is the fairy tales that people like to tell.

The big miners didn't push you out. You had an S9 just like they did. The reason they could continue mining with s9s is that they have been able to reduce energy costs. If you had low energy costs, you could continue mining, too. In fact, the price has outpaced the difficulty, so you may be able to mine again at least for a short while until the difficulty catches up.

That is very true, small miners get eaten alive over the long term. Because the large mining farms are basically running the show it is important to know what they are doing, and where their costs are. There are many hundreds of millions of dollars invested into these farms, they are incentivized to maintain the price when low and manipulate it for profit at certain times.

I was an s9 miner for a while too, but the large farms pushed me out. That is how I know that mining rewards and costs change everyday, and are not directly connected to price. Which is the topic of the day for the trolls. In no way can the ASIC supply increase by 40% (like the price has) in a week. That is speculation and manipulation.

Aaron

Here you are interlinking both the creation cost and the cost of a bitcoin that changed with a large margin due to the demand that occurred in a very short time period. With the same thought I started to invest on mining equipments when the bitcoin value was in the peak.

Further as the price fell low I was unable to profit nothing out of my investment, because what I mine is required to pay my electricity bills. Here only who profits is the large mining firm operators who contribute a large hash rates and most of the small rig owners will leave mining.

again with the creation cost! when will you start seeing that cost of mining changes with the price not the other way around.
price goes up > mining becomes more profitable > more miners join > hashrate rises > difficulty rises > cost of mining increases
price drops > mining becomes less profitable > some miners leave > hashrate drops > difficulty readjusts (decreases) > cost of mining decreases


additionally you are not talking about "investing" you are talking about day trading here. an investor shouldn't care about these short term fluctuations. you invest long term and timing in that case is not as important specially since "investors" invest their idle money that is not in anything.

********************NEWEST UPDATE*********************
Ok bitcointalk! I have been hard at work over this last week. I have just put the finishing touches on my site!

I will be posting a new topic soon about how to identify pricing bottoms by utilizing the creation cost. It needs a couple more revisions, but it will be ready today or tomorrow.

Here is the link to my site again:

https://www.amsinger.org

As always I love your opinions and criticism. You need friction to make fire

Aaron

P.S. The next client research will be covering the price volatility increases when bitcoin is high above the creation cost.

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*****************UPDATE****************
Thanks so much everyone for your opinions and views!

I am setting up a complete redesign of the site, and I will be back in around a week with all new research and probing bitcoin questions.

The site will be down while I make all the upgrades and rebalance the scales.

Bitcointalk is one of the few places where you can go to meet crypto people. I am honored to speak and share my data and views with you all!

Love and hard work,

Aaron

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I put my savings into bitcoin in May 2017, little did I know that was one of the best times to invest.

In May 2017 bitcoin’s creation cost was $1,173.22 and the price was $1,383.00. That was a risk of ~15% (wholesale bitcoin). Later that year, bitcoin’s creation cost increased to $3,265.33 and the price increased to $13,798.00. That was a risk of ~75% (retail bitcoin). The problem was, I did not sell.

I didn’t know about creation cost at the time. I didn’t understand how bitcoin actually worked back then. I had no ability to calculate my risk.

My portfolio got hit hard over 2018, especially in November. It was hit hard enough that I started learning and learning well. I learned the reason why the price dissolved. I learned how to calculate creation cost. I learned programming so that I could effectively track it and measure it. I learned that venture capitalists are a$$holes. I learned how to build and design my financial website, and now I am learning how best to communicate what I know to other people.

I designed this system so that you can take advantage of bitcoin just like I did in 2017, but unlike me, get out at the right time in 2018. I don’t want other people to go through what I experienced, especially if it is as simple as telling people what the risk is right now in bitcoin, and that timing is the most important thing.

My website is linked below:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

P.S. It feels like I am telling people to eat their bitcoin “vegetables”. Everywhere else they are screaming bitcoin 20k! or 30K! or 100K! selling their bitcoin “cupcakes”. But I’m a born entrepreneur, and quite frankly, I like the challenge.