Yes I'm a noob, and by no means an expert in the art of TA.
This just seems too obvious. If nothing major happens, the chart should play out according the 6 month pattern below:
We will go up to 520 in less than a week, then back to the 400 bottom for the final bounce.
At that point we should be looking at the log chart too see if history is going to repeat itself. I have seen too much doom and gloom lately. Near the end of a long downtrend everyone seems to forget that BTC has done this exact same scare 4 times already. I don't have time to dig through the archives, but I'm sure that the low before every major boom was full of threads saying "this is the end of bitcoin". Look at the big picture. Those same threads will be back again next year after it climbs to $4,500 and falls to $2,000.
The first week of may will be a new trend. Hang in there FUDsters!