Topic: the next checkpoint $13,800 (Read 435 times)

I will speculate that obviously, after reaching as low as $28k, the price didn't go further down, but instead it has recovered to $30k'ish for sometime and then to $40k, then go back to $38k then to $42k. So there's a lot of movement after the dip. And it still continues this pattern as the price goes below $40k again. There might be not data suggesting that we have hit the lowest low, but if you will base on the swing, chances are the bottom has been hit in my opinion.

I doubt that we are going to see a price that low not only because smart investors will buy as soon as the price of bitcoin is going down, we also need to take into account institutional investors that bought for a price way higher than that, it is better for them over the long term to buy above their current average buying price than to let the price to slip below those levels as they will lose a lot more money if they allowed bitcoin to go that low.

Probably maybe because we stop from that price and didn’t even try to go bottom on that price level, that could be considered as the strong support level and the price of Bitcoin right now tells everything that bottom was already hit. I don’t think Bitcoin will hit the price of below $20k again, though many buyers would love to see that price but the market itself wont allow that for sure.

What is the your reasoning that 30,000 is "clearly" the bottom range? There is no data suggesting that this is prediction you made is correct and I am interested in what you think is suggesting it?

The bullish cycle is still on and so is the reason we are seeing the price moving in a price range for months after the market went on to hit a new all time high and considering how we look at the market valuation in the past we need to understand that we rallied a lot much before than we usually does after every halving and it is funny to see that people are loosing their mind when the price is trading around $30k.

@OP if you are waiting for the market to settle down at $13k then you might need to wait for a  much longer time for that to happen.

I have to say I do believe that bitcoin will go up, maybe in a month or maybe in a year but I do not get excited about the smaller price changes, because that usually means that there is a chance I could be tricked with someone making some manipulation. These are not the amount of changes that shows the long term, it is actually quite short term that we should not be focusing on the smaller movements in case they are just manipulations.

There is a good chance that some rich guy may have bought a lot of bitcoins in few markets increasing the price, and when others take that over and keep increasing it, then that rich guy could end up selling it all and dropping it (throw in a short position for fun on top of that) and that is why smaller movements do not make me excited anymore, just more careful.

Would be very hard to get to the level of $13k again. I believe we already surpassed that.
Though in this market, we don't know what will happen next.
But for now, forget that price level as you may not see that again for very long time.
So just adjust your strategies and act what is the current situation in the market.
If you will wait for that level before you do something, I don't think it would be good for your crypto portfolio.

This thread was created on July 21th and on that day is when we traded below $30K for around 24 hours or so. This is proof that there are way too many emotional people out there in these markets. We were at range lows and people were calling for $13K and going short. Now we are at range highs ($42K) and people are calling for ATH.

Since its still Summer. There is a good chance that this range might follow price action for the next month. The funding is a little negative so some people already are thinking $42K was the local top and we might revisit $30K again in the next few weeks.

And then again, people will be making more threads about how "next checkpoint $10K" or so.

The hard thing for the common investor is that they already see the bad news from out there, which makes them panic. Some investors can not think clearly if they get that and I think they really need to control themselves and not force themselves always to check the market moves.

Good investors will always have the ability to calm down every time the market moves in the opposite direction than he wants and always have a solution to solve the bad situation. Those investors will not be affected by FOMO and other FUDs, instead using that for their benefit.

Smart investors will know how to deal with this better even in times of decline they come to buy more and know that bitcoin is bound to go up like everyone so have a strong determination about bitcoin and believe higher.

But sometimes people are still affected by FOMO and other FUDs, so that bitcoin moves towards a movement, there is still a lot of speculation and too much thinking about what is risky even though this is a reason why bitcoin can come back again, so you have to be mentally prepared sometimes when you see the market a little red, investors who not mentally strong will be a little anxious.

Indeed. People will panic. They will sell fast without thinking about how if the price bounce after reach that price.

Maybe those people need to believe in bitcoin so they do not have any worry about moving the bitcoin price. If they can do that, I am sure wherever bitcoin price moves, they will not panic and can even use that moment to buy back more bitcoin. Managing their emotions will also be necessary because that is one of many keys to becoming good investors or traders.

You know what will happen, people will panic and the smart investors will buy.

We've been in that kind of situation many times, bitcoin is sometimes too bearish that we thought it will not survive again, but still, it pumps and even makes a new ATH, so never lose your trust in bitcoin, it will look like a dead for some time but it always bounces back and reward those who trust.

That will be a good decision if people can do that as they will have a chance to buy bitcoin at every lower price and not selling if the price does not increase more than $1,000 or just hold for a long time. But that will depend on themselves and we can not force them to follow what we suggest because they will have their plan and know what they need to do.

But I admit that $29,000 is the best price to buy bitcoin so far, but it seems we will not see that price again. If the bitcoin price can rise to more than $64k, the lowest price of bitcoin can be anywhere, so it could be at $30,000-$40,000 range price. But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

I had to look for this thread, well we are already above $40,000 and as you can see:



the next checkpoint it will be more than $60,000 in the next few months or years. for those who are dreaming of the price dropping below $20,000 you should wake up and forget about that dream because it is clear that the price of bitcoin will no longer drop below $20,000. the $20,000 price became equal to the $3000 price that when the price was $10,000 people kept saying it would fall below $3000 and the $3000 price proved to be very strong support and at no time was it broken after bitcoin price dropped from $20,000 to $3100

Its not clear till its confirmed on every time frame, trading, daily bars, weekly and we have to consider the largest time frames as somehow Bitcoin also adheres to something as large as 200 week averages or so it seems in examining the chart since we began.    Perhaps it really is a commodity based market as some commodities take a decade to form a stable price due to the cost of mining, exploration and so on.   Thats surprising for a tech instrument and commodity but if BTC is part of macro economics and references dynamics dating back the 1970's or earlier then I can believe it possible.
  Iam quite convinced BTC is far longer term in its waves and tides while moving then we recognize.   By all that I mean to say 30k is not a hard limit, its in pencil on this chart at best.

$30,000s is pretty clearly the bottom range. Down to 200wma only happens after huge blow-off tops, which didn't happen this year, so there is no need to worry about such low prices. $30k is the bottom as we have seen from the ranging the past two months and Bitcoin will likely start moving back up toward ATH soon, either in the next few days or in the month or two.

Agreed, the analysis is precise. Someone who have followed him and has invested have taken the profit through the market re-bounce.
Yes, by the next halving the price goes to be cheap if we're into continued investing based on the dollar cost averaging. Till now the halving events have triggered the price increase, maybe at the time of halving there is no big growth.
The market above $30k happened in a short and now it is in the urge to cross $40k. Those who had the choice of dollar cost averaging could've got at a better price. The trend reversal has happened, following this will be the dips.

There are probably a lot of people like that but since you cannot change what it happened then it does not matter, what matters is to try to get bitcoin for a relatively low price, just a week ago you could have gotten bitcoin for a price below 30k and it is fair to wonder if that is going to be the last time this is going to happen as the price is recovering once again and now there is a battle among the bulls and the bears to see if the price of bitcoin goes past the 40k mark.

I always find it interesting when someone has this kind of analysis, in a bullish market, we usually see a bullish analysis and now even if the market is correcting, we still see more bullish predictions which for me is not anymore realistic. So for me, I believe that we might see that price as it's easy for bitcoin to fall when people start to panic.

Great piece of analysis. And we are currently seeing the market rebounding.

I would actually still Dollar Cost Average into the market, even with the recent bullishness. These prices are low relative to the ATH and there is a high likelihood that come the next halving, these prices will be seen as cheap.

The support at $30k seems to be robust, and the trend reversal seems well under way. While I do still expect some dips in the short run, dollar cost averaging as a strategy that allows you to ride out these dips and benefit from them through lowering your cost basis.

We already surpassed that attempt of going down mate, and price below $30k has been corrected already the last time it crashed. However, the recovery was too fast and we're at $34k heading towards upward trend. If we can't survive this current movements, most probably there's a slight downfalls then we're good to go at $60k once again stabilizing in preparation for $100k predictions.

with the break of $33000 it seems to me that we will no longer see the price reach $13000 and to be honest even if we had a big catastrophe the price would not fall so low as to drop to $13000, at most in my opinion we would see 22000$ if the price would fall below $28000 and as I had said or predicted the price would not go to $28000 because whenever it touched that zone it was rejected and immediately went up to $33000 which revealed a strong interest of people in buying in this $28000 zone

I am one among who felt "I should have bought bitcoin or saved the bitcoin I earned in 2016 when it was around $400 and in 2019 when BTC was around $4k to $5k". I almost had 2 btc from earnings without investing on it. Current situation makes me feel the same but would let it go down to $20k to $25k. So I feel, this is the last opportunity one can opt more bitcoin.

Not sure about the $25k price, but seeing how the market is bouncing in the last couple of days, it seems that we are not going that low in the next 2 months or so.  And after that huge dip at $29k, we are not heading to $35k. So for obvious reasons, it was the buying price that everyone is looking for as they many investors fill their bags again with cheap bitcoin.

Of course, for us average joe, a good $25 price is good, but I don't we will reach but as majority have said, the 200MA is a good indicator as we are still in the uptrend generally speaking.

I do not know, the prediction seems really low and we will basically be very close the where this whole bull run started, you may be right but I do not see it, I think it is way more likely that at worst for now we see a 25k price and then a lot of people will get scared and sell their coins and we finally see a tremendous recovery by the end of the year, and then and only then we could see the price crashing and remain at very low levels for a long time giving us the opportunity to buy bitcoin for cheap again.

Who is actually buying during the $60k+ when they could actually buy it low before the bull run starts last year? Of course, it would hurt like hell if someone actually buy when the price is in the peak. I couldn't imagine someone would actually join the bandwagon after they saw the price spike and grow but only buy during its peak.

Price manipulation?

We are already in there when Elon Musk suddenly leave the market that causes the price to plunge to where we are now. But it seems that it didn't create enough fud to bring the price down below $30k.

Yeah, actually 200MA has been my go-to line on the rare occasion I do check, and even that's proven to be a pretty good indication of bargain price, as much as TA goes for me.

Purely arbitrary also has been the even rarer event, where Bitcoin's never revisited an ATH from the past cycle so I'm pretty confident we don't see 20k again -- and if we do, it should cause some sort of panic, so that 13k mark does seem possible at this stage (if we break 20k support, that s).

Hopefully, that will not happen this year or next year and the price can sustain at the current price and bounce to the high price for the rest of this year. If that can happen, maybe the bottom of bitcoin price in the next year will change and we will not see $30k or $40k for the lowest price of bitcoin, although that could still possibly happen in the future. I am sure the investors already took their opportunity by buying bitcoin at $29k yesterday and now, they are waiting for the bounce for the price or if the price still goes down, they will make sure to buy more, especially if the price is the same touch below $29k.

Of course, even if you check the 50 MA, still points to $13,800 as the checkpoint so it's not that far technically speaking. But as far as the fundamentals goes, bitcoin is now very strong, it's now above $33k, from a weak point of around $29k about a week ago.

So we are moving far from the $13,800 prediction and if you zoom out, we could be heading to the obvious sideways range again.

We're too far from that specific projections mate, there might be several attempts fo downturns lately fearing to see btc goes down below $30k but that doesn't come to fulfillment due to quick recovery. Most hungry investors took opportunity of the situation, then buying back additional asset is their best strategy. If they're not seeing a good potential from btc, we won't experience all those positive responses.

This is the type of topics we need, it is a reminder to everyone here that we are sooooo high right now that 13.8k is considered a horrible thing, just a year ago it was nearly a 40% increase from the price we were at, and now it is a hooorrible drop that we do not want anymore.

I do not think that we will hit that price at all but I do believe that there is a good chance we could end up with something that is going to get us happy again, like maybe 40k again, or maybe even higher. Why? Because we have seen what happened when the price tried to go down, when the price fails to go down like that many wealthy people realize that it is time to end up trying to make it go down and start trying to make it go up, that is how they manipulate it. They first try to sell a few to make people get scared and sell even more and then they buy at lower, but if it fails to go lower then they start to buy a bit and make it hyped so it goes up.

This will not happen, it will definitely be kept as low as possible because the checkpoint will definitely be closely guarded by investors and not let it go so low.

There's no sign that it's too bad for this fall to last longer at around $30k I don't know if they're ready to buy now or waiting for another low so I don't think it's possible to cross it just a good way to take advantage when there is a decline a little, then we are ready with our money, we just need to take it in the short term, if we want it bigger, we just have to hold on to it.

On the average, more people have speculated more drop for bitcoin than those speculating higher. No doubt that bitcoin has been struggling to get out from the bear zone only waiting for positive news to change all the down speculation. All we can do is to predict but I understand that big buyers have a role to play on this if they enter the market with big buy. Bitcoin has the history of dropping after the bull and someiit takes more than a year to come back. The current price of $32,412 has shown the rate of struggle not to go beyond $30,000. This time is still good for a buy because nobody knows when the train will kick off.

A bit got loss on the content of the thread. I think everyone is focusing on the without reading the content but the general point this post was 29K is the checkpoint if the price slow down falling on 20K price. He has a point on his analysis since he is just referring to the 200MA. 13,800$ is not that far considering how cryptomarket move.

Opportunity is too rare when we talk about Bitcoin. I had my share of regrets too.
There is no exact measure of time into when it will be dumped again or better, pumped.
That's why I have taken the risk when it fell to 29k-ish which I think was too low and should be the purchasing point for every investor who believes it will be profitable for the next month or two.
It was. I am 3k up already and I don't mind selling but IMO, there's still room for a move up.

Of course, we should take advantage if the price reaches that low and we should be prepared for the eventually. But so far no signs are pointing to $13,500, on the contrary we might seen $33k-$35k again this month. Which is somewhat the price range in the last 1 month or so. We never break $40k or at least not sustained it in the long run. So maybe there is a slim chance for a dump, and the best thing to do is to take advantage of that bitcoin bargain hunting.

Never say neer, but to think btc will go as low as $13,500 this period is very hard to belive, since nothing is impossible in crypto space, i can only wait and watch where the price go next, i like to think from here on we will be going up, $13,500 will be too dip to recover quickly from, if this happens i jusy hope to be able to buy whatever i can squeeze out

Somehow I see these statements as contradictory 
Clearly there will be some who will wait for the price to get to 13800$, 10000$, 1000$ or whatever, missing the opportunities, no matter how superb they are.
The news are full with newer and newer sources of fiat that will fill the market, obviously leading to a new solid bull run - sooner or later -, and only the too short sighted can ignore that.

I don't say that I have a crystal ball, but I don't see the 13800$ as something that can really happen this year. So I'll agree only with the "superb time to buy" part.



Of course, this is also not an investment advice.

Nah, I don't think it will happen, just another simulation and it seems to be ridiculous scenario to me.

So I also don't see bitcoin going on this price. And as far as checkpoint goes, there is $15k $20k, $25k support levels. Just imagine seeing the price going to $20k? Isn't it a bargain and I don't think that investors will just let this one slip away. They are going to invest tons of money again in the market, so recovery is there all the time if those checkpoints have been broken.

There are merits to both because if you think about it, not spreading and going all in could be good for you because you never know if the price is going to go up and will end up with you having some leftover funds not invested because you planned to split it in levels thinking that it will go down much lower than what you previously bought.

Only scenario I see going to 13.8k or more likely down to $0 is, if Klaus Schwab and his WEF gang start their cyber pandemic (they simulated it on July 9th 2021, just like they simulated covid outbreak (event 201) months (October 2019) before the actual covid outbreak) where the internet will not be accessible for weeks/months, leading to a global chaos, food shortages etc. Then they will blame it on Russian hackers and will give people only access to the internet with a digital ID passport. Cloudflare CEO agreed on this already. They will track each step you do, what websites you visit etc. And this time legally, since, just like Covid, its an global emergency. It is to protect you. Its for your safety. Just like any crisis before, the governments need to create a crisis to implement new laws that could not have been implemented without that crisis.

Thats when crypto will become worthless, since there will be no more privacy. Thats their only chance to destroy crypto. And earlier or later they will do this. You read it now daily on the news, that major websites are down, more often the internet is not accessible, sometimes your mobile is not working etc. Its them. They preparing people to whats coming. But involved media is telling people its once again the evil Russians.

Yeah, no way.

In the highly unlikely event that this were to happen, I believe that all the predictive models we have seen so far would have to be rethought.

Anyway, the main point of the OP is that we are at a price level that in a few years we are going to consider a bargain, and that it is a very good time to buy.

On that I do agree.

Bitcoin price will be hard to drop below $ 25k...

I see that the current BTC price is very stable, the news that made the price of BTC bull run has still not been heard. The discussion that was carried out by Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk last day made the price of BTC strengthen, I am positive that until the end of this year we will see the new ATH of BTC.

I hope that we won't touch that point again but if it does, I will be happy to embrace the fact that we will get there again, I mean that's a better buying opportunity than 20k right?

HFSP

We are not going anywhere near $13,800 ever again.

If that is so, I will prepare more money to buy at that level
But I am not sure if the price will jump so fast to that level price because even bitcoin price is down, it will go step by step but there is a chance to get a dump from panic people if the price reaches below $30k.
Hopefully, the price will not down below $30k and only resist the current price.
But if the price really down below $30k, maybe the price can touch $25k but it will no happen in a short time.

Yeah, it's good to spread our investments. I don't think that it's good to buy at only one specific level. Because it's a big risk as the price can fall a great deal. It's better to buy at different levels to manage our investments more effectively. We can make more profit because of doing it.

What I can see also now is the same as last month when Bitcoin is battling for closing above $40,000 for monthly close, but look how it devastated when fails to close above $40,000. And now look at the bounce when we touched $29,000. It keeps bouncing above $30,000.
But, we will not celebrate early. Monthly close is still important for this July, if Bitcoin will close above $30,000, bullish.
OP got a point now especially comparing the price of June 2015 and February 2019.

30k Is a support because of:

1- 01.2021 correction bottom
2- BTC @30k is exactly testing 2017 ATH if we adjust price USD money supply change in 2017-2021 - Just heard about it from BenjaminCowen
3- Hate to say that but - Elon buy zone

Currently, BTC is a great short term buy (32-40k recovery) moderate mid term buy (risk of falling to 20k and beginning of 1-3 years of bear market), great long term buy (after 10 years people will laugh from 30k sellers)

market has been manipulated and it becomes very unpredictable, but i believe 30k above is the real checkpoint because 29k is already tested since the hard decline but now it keeps holding at the current value and it's been how many attempts to break through actually but good to see it has a strong support .. Lastly for me indicators nowadays are not accurate anymore unless if you use most of the popular wherein tested indicators because on that way you can really tell that there's a possibility to go below the current price in the future, but if you base in just one tools perhaps it's not a good reason to trust. Too good to be true..

all markets are manipulated and no one is honest. the fall of bitcoin from $ 64,000 to $ 28,000 was very painful for investors, especially if you expect bitcoin to go down $ 13,800 it hurts like a knife in the heart.
since it's called a market, I think the $28,000 drop rate is enough and it's full. it's time bitcoin can go and no need to look back again.

It's a manipulated market so they say. If they could drag the price down to $13,800, more poor people will come and take the buying opportunity, and then poor people get to be rich, they don't want that to happen. It has to go $30,000 for it to be not too affordable. Its still unsure where it could go, $32,000 is too low to say we are out of the woods.

But volume is getting lesser in the range of $30K, its time to move the market up to boil the blood of the traders. Keep them awake.

Don't you think $13,800 is too low? I cannot imagine any big reason why the price could fall down that hard, especially because the price has already reached as high as $64,000. If that happens, that's definitely posing more danger and risk.

Anyway, those who have bought more when the price was below $30,000 have already made good gains as the price is already approaching $33,000 right now. I guess $33,000 could be reached any minute from now.

Now is the best time.
Buy it once a month to spread the cost.
As long as the holding time is long enough, there is no fear of bull and bear markets.

Very rarely has bitcoin price gone below the 200 WMA and when it did it has recovered after a month or two. Not sure why $30,000 seemed to be checkpoint that took some time to go through other than it is a round number and maybe people had positions at that mark. Anyhow I see no reason why it cannot fall to the current 200 wma ($13,800?) after maybe slowing at $20,000 for the same reason as $30,000.

So I think bitcoin at its current price ($29,000 ish) is great buying but if people spread their buying out a little over time (next few months?)  I think they will benefit even more.

To me this $12,000-$29,000 is the same opportunity we were all afforded when bitcoin was last "cheap " at about $250 in June 2015 and about $3,300 in February 2019.

Arguably with bitcoin on average doubling every year any time is good buying but now is a superb time to buy. And who knows when or if ever again the stars will be so aligned.

(this is not financial advice)