Topic: The paradox of arbitrage betting (and how to make money on it) (Read 447 times)

I noticed this too. Most bettors that frequently play and win a bet are usually the ones who have decreased in limits as well as odds. Sometimes, these situations aren't even given into the sight of the bettor. There's no notification or alert given that they have decreased the limit and odds due to their playstyle and frequency of playing which is unfair on the side of the player because they've been a patronage.

I guess the casinos do this to balance the system. Perhaps this is their way to make someone deliberately play over and over again due to some adjustments. Or maybe this is their way so that they won't lose much money in a player who knows how to top up his game.

It's possible as i've done it a couple of times before whenever the underdog gets a good start you can get decent odds on the huge favorites then you have to pray that the favs recover midway through the game in order to catch the underdog at plus odds. In the end, there's still a bit of risk involved as you need to catch both teams whenever they're at a disadvantage in order to get their odds above even.

Also, it's tough to bet on live odds as it's more juiced compared to pre-live but there's always an opportunity knowing you just have to catch them at the right time.

You’re referring to live betting which is really impossible to do this because book maker change there odds every seconds. I believe this arbitrage betting is applicable on prematch games since you will need to compare all the odds in different sportsbook. I’m familiar with bookmaker error but I never encounter one of it in my years of placing bet on sportsbook. If anyone already done this theoretical strategy, Maybe giving feedback here will give motivation to pursue on this strategy.

It might be hard to provide data for such arbitrage opportunities because the market is moving so fast. There are probably hundreds of people looking for the opportunity to make some free money. So I would expect as soon as there is an arbitrage the first few people will get money quickly and the opportunity disappears quickly. The bookmakers try to no have risk for themselves, so they will adjust quotes quicky. The more people buy one leg of the bet, the faster the odds will adjust.

I'm not aware that there's a scenario that 2 book maker offer an exact opposite odds on each outcome. Can you provide a sample bet pick from different Casino that this kind of arbitrage betting can be applied? This will only happened if one of the bookmaker commit an error on placing odds but as I remember most of the bookmaker has a centralized data on all of there odds so it's very hard to spot a match that contains this scenario. Or I'm understanding your point in the wrong way.

I will really appreciate if you can provide actual sample even if you don't actually place a bet. Just a comparison sample. Nice thread by the way boris!

If you are very right in what you say, but also on occasions they are usually seen on gaming sites that mostly have many bots making bets, I do not know if the platforms have these bots as decoys so that when normal users enter and try their luck they can give account and apply something like that, the arbitration already in these sites is something that turns out to be very different, what we mostly know as arbitration is in the exchanges and the way to make small amounts taking advantage of some normal bugs that there are delays between them, delays that we could not do at human speed, but only a machine or bot could do it, but in games I see it as very difficult.

In the second point, a significant difference from arbitrage betting can be recognized that in certain segments the deposit will decrease, this is a fact. But I do not agree that there is a risk of losing the entire deposit - the minimum bankroll management (such as allocating no more than 10% of the deposit to the bet and adjusting the size of the bets depending on the remaining balance) protects you from this, and a positive EV ensures its growth over a distance.

You're right for 1. Theoretically, there is nothing different when it comes to EV and yes I do agree that some arbitrage opportunities can be long-lasting, but these are definitely rarer to come by.

I disagree with your second point however.

There is an inherent difference between a surebet (which returns you a profit, without risk) and what you've shown. Yes, EV is positive but you have significant variance in your outcomes. You always have a non-zero risk of losing all your bankroll with this.

I have never engaged in arbitrage betting, so I am interested in the questions: are there any services that help to keep track of matches for which bookmaker offices give opposite odds to understand how often arbitrage bets can be made? Are any of the forum members engaged in this kind of activity on a regular basis?

Using promotional offers is the most stupid thing you can think of for arbitration. Firstly, this is an actual deception and the one who does this has no moral right to complain later about the reaction (legitimate or not) of the bookmaker. Secondly, promotional offers are monitored with much more care, so the one who uses them does it to his own detriment.
As for the efficiency of the market, I'm not at all sure about it. Odds change both before the event and in live mode. I think the skews in the odds are much larger than 1-2 percent.

This is an interesting topic to discuss. The concept of arbitrage betting has taken on a completely different dimension in the gambling world in recent years. A true classic arbitrage bet should be one that you always win 100%. I have read that such players are often quickly banned from gambling sites. What you see more nowadays is that they place a value bet, you don't need 2 bookmakers for that. That's the big problem with an arbitrage bet, you have to play at 2 bookmakers and the limits shouldn't be a problem. The terms and conditions may also work against you.

I'm not sure this coordination you think is going on exists, at least beyond a group of subsidiaries that exist within a wider gambling company. Not just because that sort of collusion actually helps competitors who are mispricing their bets, but also because this kind of profitable arbitrage is so rare already and there are plenty of peer to peer marketplaces that will almost instantly close any gaps. You'd be lucky to make 1 or 2 percent after commission from regular trading. Most people make money in this arbitrage game but taking advantage of different promo offers but even those run out if they start to cost the sportsbook too much. The most obvious reaction from any sportsbook will just be to ban a player who is regularly taking profit from their country, that is how they shut down such activity.

Most likely people who engage in this kind of activity do not register themselves with bookmaker's offices. The black market sells any documents to pass KYC. If there are people who can register thousands of accounts on CoinList for the sake of the fact that less than 5% of them can buy tokens then it is not a problem for them to abuse at betting shops as well.

OR
You can have a new account with your friend or family member you both do it and split the profits as well. But at the same time you have to understand that now a days this is illegal on some sites and the bookmakers are very witty about that, therefore I really haven't tried it yet, but I would love to do that someday if I am not so scared of doing something against their policies and rules.

But if someone does know about it then you can be sued as well if they take you to court. But i don't think how can they place you incharge if you use two different accounts and two people are actually doing that.

Considering the VPN, it's a double edged sword, they might ask for your ID and then it would be additional probelm when you won't be able to withdraw your money from there or have any profits in hand.

Well, I don't know to what extent this is not possible, I understand that in traditional casinos they do have a list of players who are banned, of course because they have cheated, and they have a system where that information is shared, now this As in blockchain it is something else and the data is more immediate, perhaps that possibility exists, however when we take into account that online casinos, anyone can make an account, pass a KYC and continue playing, it is more difficult to control it, unless there is an algorithm that has saved the way of playing of that player, in this case a super database that stores that data of the players.

I wonder if you still find these arbitrage opportunities today, or if they all disappeared. I know from stocks trading that arbitrage opportunities are short lived, because information flow today is so fast. As soon as a trader starts profiting of big trade, others will follow. In the sports betting world I would expect the bookies to identify these opportunities too.
Insider information is probably the only way to be always right in betting. Without it we need to rely on hedging or luck to save us. Luck will eventually run out and can cost us a lot of money. I like to make small very risky bets as a hedge. The investment is small with a potential big payout. Especially during big tournaments having multi segment hedges is a good idea. Betting on a few underdogs is relatively cheap and can help recover our money in case our favourite team doesn't make it.

What I don't see happening here is the OP mentioned that casinos may possibly exchanging info of their players?
I don't think they are doing that, unless, they are sister companies. But if not, I don't think competitors are talking to each other.
Anyway, some bettors are really earning from this strategy, but this is not for all. It requires patience and techniques to get your profits.
But I do believe that some players are trying this strategy for themselves especially if they know very well the sports.

I have had success with similar plays, in the past.

Here I had Demetrious Johnson arbitraged vs Henry Cejudo, thinking Cejudo had good chances of pulling the upset back in 2018.



That was a winning bet for 38 times payout, with I think 10 mBTC wagered on both sides of the action for 380 mBTC.

The other side of the arbitrage was the more conservative gamble, would have profited around 70 mBTC.

When MMA was more one dimensional, I used to hit a winning bet like this around once a month. Maybe ever other month.

Its much harder today with inside information being used more to setup non obvious mismatches.

But at one time, it worked very well.

It is an arbitrage strategy which might also be described as a hedge. Only with a more segments, greater potential profit & higher probability of failure. Multi segment hedge?

The true arbitrage betting is if you were placing two bets on a certain event that in different providers had different odds.For example a game where it had 1 the home team to win 2.10 or above and the X2 double chance in some other provider more than 2.05,in this way if you placed two individual bets in these different providers whatever the outcome you would come out as a winner,a minimum of 5% was in the days when I worked in a bookie a whole lot of years ago in 2001-2002,back then there were people studying all the different providers to find arbitrage betting (back then was called sure bets) but I guess it means the same.

I do not like trying two different parlays like the examples given here as they are not sure wins or true arbitrage betting.

It's normal that they will prohibit shady acts including arbitrage betting because that can make them lose in the long run but to prohibit the bettor that wins in a normal and fair way? I guess there is something with the way they think. We should stop playing on them immediately, there are now lots of sports betting sites online and some can allow VPN so that you can still access them if your country is often on the banned list.

In trading, there was also arbitrage but never heard they disallow it but, they only make it a little harder for the trader. They increase the fees and minimum withdrawal so that it discourages someone to do arbitrage.

I think that the existing identification capabilities (not to mention the KYC, which is quite common for many bookmakers) allow you to very effectively determine the relationship of accounts. In the situation of bookmakers against an arbitrage better, it is obvious that the bookmakers are in an allied position and are interested in establishing a channel for transmitting information between themselves.
As for the opportunities to make such bets, yes, they are not simple, but not so difficult either, because, for example, in live betting, the odds change very often and quickly.

I also don't know how they do it but it's certainly possible as i've seen a couple of cases before even with different nicknames it won't be enough to hide their actions since if they have some suspicions they can easily look for every account that placed similar bets or on the opposite side.

There are websites that offer arbitrage opportunities like Bitodds for example they have alerts that mention which sportsbooks to bet on. I agree with the large bankroll part, to make your effort worthwhile you really need a huge bankroll since the profits you get aren't that much and it could only take a couple of bets before the bookies catch on with your betting activities.

That's a terrible way of looking at it and you're just exposing yourself to an extra 1.74% margin on the bookmaker's side. It would only ever make sense if there was some sort of promotion for placing a 3 leg multibet that would make it worthwhile, and chances are the bookmaker might see it as promotion abuse in the case.

If you place the multibet with 1 mBTC on each side, you have a chance at either 2.9 mBTC profit or 1.58 mBTC profit. You can also bet 2 mBTC on your "locks" and end up with 2.2 mBTC in profit (4.2 mBTC payout) guaranteed. However, if you'd prefer to have a chance at more profit, you could play a dice roll at 1% house edge and bet 0.62 mBTC on a 2.13x bet (for 0.7 mBTC profit). Thus, you have a 46.48% chance of ending up with 2.9 mBTC, and 53.52% chance of ending up with 1.58 mBTC.

If we assume that the market for your "arbitrage" leg was efficient, the implied vig-removed probability of each outcome is 57.82% (1.70) and 42.18% (2.33). Thus, by placing a dice roll instead of "arbitrage", you have a 4% higher chance of ending up with the larger sum of money. You could argue that you believe the 2.33 fighter has a greater chance of winning than the odds implied, but then we would be getting into value betting territory and you'd be purposely taking a stupid -EV bet on the 1.70 fighter for no reason.

You are right, casinos pay attention to all profitable players and eventually get rid of them (I wrote about this earlier), but this is mainly for fiat bookmakers. With the advent of crypto bookmakers and various services where you can bet directly against another better, this problem becomes less acute.

I also doubt they are going to share data about who are those users trying to game the system by trying to implement this arbitrage betting. But I think it's based on the amount of money you bet on a match which they will identify that a user is doing the arbitrage betting. He will need to calculate how much he'd bet on the other side on one platform and to the other.

It's because regardless of the outcome of the game, the bettor will always win and bookmakers don't like it when you keep winning even if it's just a small amount of money every time. It accumulates.

How would a bookmaker be able to exchange information with another about a particular player?
Only if that player uses the same nickname in both houses or has KYC in both houses as well.
And even then, I think it's unlikely that they talk to each other about players.

However... It's very difficult to see totally opposite winning possibilities in both houses, the best bookmakers use good algorithms to predict the favorite and they adjust it all the time.

This is essentially the principles of +EV betting.

It comes with risks and you need to make sure that you still manage your bankroll correctly, because bad beats can happen even if you are doing everything right.

And don't think that this is the magic thing that will ensure you never get caught. If you bet and win consistently and show that you have an edge, most casinos/sportsbooks are still going to catch on as a matter of time regardless of how well you conceal your activities.

The problem is that bookmakers (at least in my country) fight successful bettors not only on formal grounds (prohibition of arbitrage bets, multi-accounts for receiving bonuses, etc.) but also simply because such bettors are profitable. It can be called differently, like a ban on "value betting", but basically, for no reason, successful bettors have their betting limit reduced and they are practically deprived of the opportunity to bet at least some significant amounts.

Betting had a very simple statics.It may be any kind of betting. Occurring a wide set of tactics is essential in betting.You need to learn huge amount of betting idea, only by the tactics.Arbitrage trading was an enough one to get a good profit. Betting is a part of risk. One side, it will gives you a enough chance of winning.On the other hand, their is a chance of losing in the gambling. Losing is not only in gambling and same was their in trading too.

What is the real advantage of this kind of bet?
I miss this part ... betting in only one side what type of advantage should bring to the player? You have just placed a bet with odds higher then 2.00 that's all. You don't need an arbitrage bet but just an event with one of the side above 2.00.
If you are searching an arbitrage bet you need to use a scanner enable to find for you these options.
Scanners are not free. Create a scanner or check bookmakers requires a lot of time...

From my experience: you need a LARGE bankroll in both sites you're using for arbitrage (but there are dozens of bookmakers that could have an opportunity for an arbitrage bet so it's become a LARGE bank roll "no limits funds" in all available site).
Higher odds are available (generally) in exchange markets but there is not enough liquidity for a large bets...
At the ends there are just few real options suitable and even if you are able to found the real advantage is just a little percentage.
Time and efforts doesn't justify the work for such bets.

You can avoid some betting limits because if you bet in FIAT, you can use meanwhile CRYPTO bookmakers.
For certain amounts it's close to impossible some one will note, but the amount available for "real cashout" is a little percentage, few dollars unless you're playing with 5-digit amount but at this point I don't know if it is really worth as idea.

Hey Boris, I remember you

Statistically, I agree with the idea that betting on same probability outcomes but with higher than expected returns is profitable in the long run, but I think the strategy you suggest can't be in any way labelled as arbitrage since by definition, arbitrage means betting on both sides of the same market.

Again, I'm not going to get into an argument, but when I am value-betting for picks, I always choose what I believe is good value (and statistics usually back my pick). I translate simple odds into statistics (not scientific but there you go). For example, 10/1 should translate into 10% wins but if the stats show they actually win more than 10% of the time on those odds, then you have good value.

So I keep betting on those types of games, on my picks threads, but I'm not sure I'd call that arbitrage?

You write nonsense because it has nothing to do with arbitrage betting - and Turner and Holland can lose their fights and then your supposedly "guaranteed profit" will turn into a loss.


1. The theoretical possibility is one thing, the practical implementation is another. I showed a theoretical possibility. And in fact, arbitrage opportunities are not fleeting phenomena at all - for example, if you bet a week before the event, then you will most likely have the opportunity (long in time) to make an arbitrage counter-bet. If this opportunity does not appear, then you can wait for the start of a sporting event and catch such a bet in live mode.

2. The problem of the presence or absence of the necessary bankroll does not cancel the fact that there is an opportunity to make arbitrage bets.
I do not see a fundamental difference in risk, since at a distance (as I showed in the calculations in the first post), from the point of view of mathematics, such bets are equivalent to classical arbitrage.

I think that there are two problems with this:

1. You are not going to find a lot of profitable arbitrage opportunities. Even if you sign up to a subscription service, by the time that you see a recommendation/tip it's probably already too late and the opportunity has been taken advantage of.

2. A lot of the people here don't have the bankroll management that is necessary for this, and it's not a "surebet" in the sense that you are only making paper profits (in terms of EV) and not necessarily booking it in reality. There is a huge difference in risk.

In fact, it is not the size of the bankroll that matters, but the speed of its turnover. If you play plus then you will quickly increase your bankroll with the condition that you make a lot of bets. As for sporting events with three (or more) outcomes, arbitrage strategies work for them also, but there you should place bets guided by a different algorithm.

I try to use this strategy whenever the opportunity arises. You can do a similar strategy with options in the stock market. When it comes to gambling though, these opportunities frequently present themselves. Especially with live betting. You just have to arbitrage your bets when you see that the odds change to where it’s possible.

I also will sometimes add multiple bets if there’s a “sure thing” to make the arbitrage bets more profitable as parlays. That sort of defeats the purpose, but if it’s a sure enough bet, it can enable lots of arbitrage opportunities. Just don’t lose the sure thing.

I have read in the past about people making big money with this technique, but I have never tried it. You need a big bankroll to make a profit and there is always a risk.

We could try to do arbitrage betting on UFC but sometimes the fights end in a Draw, and that would be a game over for us. And as OP mentioned, sportsbooks keep an eye on the user's bets to try to avoid this practice and they could ban our accounts.

Jalin Turner (1.67) and Kevin Holland (1.26) together is only worth only (2.10).

The way the arbitrage I posted works is, one side is (4.90) the other side is (3.58).

Bet 1 mBTC on both sides, 1st parlay pays out 3.90 mBTC and 2nd pay sout 2.58 mBTC.

Total winnings come out to either 2.90 mBTC or 1.58 mBTC once the 1 mBTC loss from the losing leg is factored in.

Its a guaranteed win as long as the lock plays hold up.

...

Arbitrage is a strategy where winning becomes possible on both sides of an outcome.

Asking for guarantees in the context of sports gambling, where there never are guarantees unless games are rigged.

Is like asking for water that isn't wet.

This is a good format for turning uncertain sporting events into arbitrage opportunities.

Which is the best anyone could hope for given the circumstances.

Individual losses or wins are not important. Only the average is important. In this example (and in any other case of arbitrage bets), the average outcome will be profitable.


Yes, I'm talking about sports betting.
I do not have all the information to prove that by arbitrage betting on different sites you will attract attention, and you cannot prove otherwise. Therefore, it is worth thinking about different options. It seems to me that bookmakers are not stupid and effectively resist those who are trying to make guaranteed money.
As for the difficulty of finding such bets, I heard that there are aggregator sites that provide such information. In addition, if you bet live, then you will have much greater opportunities to find an arbitrage bet.
Yes, crypto betting shifts the advantage towards the player. But in any case, the struggle between bookmakers and bettors is not the main topic of my thread. I wanted to show a mathematical paradox.


This is a completely wrong example of arbitrage. No matter how "confident" you are in the outcome of the battle, it may end differently. The meaning of arbitration is in guarantees. Your premonition and analytics do not guarantee anything.
If you're sure about Jalin Turner (1.67) and Kevin Holland (1.26), just bet on them and take the easy money, right?

That’s exactly what I was thinking as well, and I think it would also be better to have partners that you somehow know so you could constantly communicate about what will be your next agendas and actions in executing this. Nice comprehension and explanation here by the way, @Mauser.

The formula for arbitrage plays in sports gambling looks like this IMO.

To cite an example, consider the last UFC event:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_272

Let's say you were fairly certain Jalin Turner (1.67) and Kevin Holland (1.26) would win their fights.

But didn't have an idea of who would win the fight between Ludovit Klein (2.33) and Devonte Smith (1.70).

Make 2 parlays

Ludovit Klein(2.33), Jalin Turner(1.67), Kevin Holland(1.26) = (4.90)

Devonte Smith(1.70), Jalin Turner(1.67), Kevin Holland(1.26) = (3.58)

That's one potential method of turning uncertain matches (with good odds) into arbitrage winners as long as the locks hold up.

I presume you mean sports betting, right?
There's no way they will know that you are doing arbitrage betting if you are doing it on two different sites.
Arbitrage betting in the first place is not illegal, so why would the bookmakers or sportsbooks care about that?

It's an opportunity, but a rare opportunity as it's not easy to find it and I find it very difficult that's why I didn't pursue that kind of betting.

Also, most sportsbooks (crypto sportsbooks) promote anonymous betting, so how would they know that you are the same person who bet on the other site?

If your strategy works and you're worried about losing money if your account is banned you can use multiple accounts and constantly look for new sites to work on. I heard a story once that one enterprising guy registered a lot of his fellow villagers in one of the testnet and earned very well)

This would be one solution to avoid being flagged as an arbitrage gambler, but you are still taking risks here. If the outcome you bet on didn't come then you lost your money. Choosing the bookie that offers the best odds for your bet is a good idea and will make you a lot more money in the long run. The thing with arbitrage bets is that they are usually risk free with a much smaller payout. The risk free bet enables you to bet a lot of your money on it as there is no real risk of losing your money. How about you look for a partner to the trades? If your friend bets one leg of the arbitrage and you bet the other than there shouldn't be an issue with the TOS. I tried myself to look for such arbitrage bets in the past but couldn't really find any. Are you looking at not so popular sports and less frequent matches?

This is what some people do to achieve a somewhat sureball win in betting. Putting your bets on both teams will still make you a profit even a little amount because the bet you won will be the bet you made on the other side. The only bonus is the remainder apart from the base bet. This is preferred by some, while others do not because of the complications of things. Personally, I wouldn't try arbitrage betting. I would rather bet on a single team that I researched and trust upon to avoid the complexity. After all, high risk, high reward. Although this is just my personal perspective because I believe in risking what I can only afford to lose. I do not bet and invest beyond what I'm scared of losing. This is to ensure myself that I won't have regrets later on and I will still have something left if ever worse things happen. If you want this kind of way as an extra profit, you could do this. But still do it with caution because everything has its costs.

Big data. At a distance of 100-500 bets, but in fact earlier, you will be calculated and get a ban on both accounts even if you use different devices, VPNs, or even "work" together with someone real from another country. In addition, I'm not saying that all other methods are bad, I just "invented" (i think I'm not the first here) another way.

I love math paradoxes and I find this one very interesting - you make an arbitrage bet but it's not really arbitrage (you don't bet on two mutually exclusive events) but still make a profit.

I prefer to bet on sport, most especially football where arbitrage betting or what you call it is not possible. If you take win for match bet A and you take win for match bet B, if the end result is draw, the person will both lose on both matches and have minimum losses. I am not a person that take betting special, I bet on what I can afford to lose and either win or lose. I will prefer to go for a single bet rathe than complicating the whole thing.

I've never been involved in arbitrage betting, but what prevents you from using the account of a friend or distant relative with a different surname to participate in betting on the second site. As I understand it, they obviously will not be able to trace that you are engaged in arbitrage if you make bets under different IP addresses using VPN. Or if using VPN is forbidden by the rules to involve your friend for betting.

For example, let's take the simplest case when we have the opportunity to make an arbitrage bet and get money without risking anything:
There are two outcomes of the event: 1 and 2, and let's say that at bookmaker A we can bet on outcome 1 with odds of 2.05, and at bookmaker B we can bet with the same odds on outcome 2.

It turns out that if we make two bets (for example 100$) on both events, we will get a guaranteed profit:

100x2.05 - 200 = 5$ net profit from a bet of $200

100x2.05 - either bet on event 1 or bet on event 2 wins
200 - money spent to place both bets

But there is a problem that bookmakers (most of them) prohibit arbitrage bets and most likely exchange information about the players who make them in order to get rid of them later. Is there a solution to this problem?

I think yes: the probability that of the two events 1 and 2 the first or the second will happen is the same. This means that if we bet only on event 1 (or 2) we will (on average) either win $105 or lose $100.

(105 - 100)/2 = 2.5 $ net profit from a bet of $100

Conclusion: if you find an opportunity to make an arbitrage bet, then you can bet only on one of the outcomes and on average you will still be in the black plus avoid problems with ToS of bookmakers.