Topic: The price is only going down because Pirate is gradually selling. (Read 2320 times)
My take is that he was dampening the price with his ask walls while it was going up from $5-15. He's a big player so he can pretty much control the whole ask side and he can see how many remaining asks there are. He then timed his announcement perfectly before the weekend which ignited a big sell-off. He's just catching the knife now and buys back bitcoins at a huge discount. He can repeat this trick after he pays back the coins on monday, again catching all the dumps that people will make.
August 19, 2012, 12:34:59 PM
It *COULD* be (though highly unlikely) that he is driving the price of BTC down by an extreme sell, so he can buy back at bottom (thus, buying MANY more Bitcoins that he currently owns) so he can pay what he owes.
Crude example: sell 200k coins in the 15-9 range, and with that money buy 300-400k coins in the 6 to 13 range.
That then failed. Look at the liquidity on the ask side. Buying BTC10,000 will drive the price to almost $11.
August 19, 2012, 12:32:41 PM
Crude example: sell 200k coins in the 15-9 range, and with that money buy 300-400k coins in the 6 to 13 range.
This technique would require inducing a panic as well as preventing a rally.
Seems way way off the chart to me.
August 19, 2012, 12:20:58 PM
Pirate owes people in BTC, not USD, so why would he be selling BTC to pay them back?
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
It *COULD* be (though highly unlikely) that he is driving the price of BTC down by an extreme sell, so he can buy back at bottom (thus, buying MANY more Bitcoins that he currently owns) so he can pay what he owes.
Crude example: sell 200k coins in the 15-9 range, and with that money buy 300-400k coins in the 6 to 13 range.
You know as well as anyone that this plan would fail, and fail hard. I'd give this example person about 50k worth of buyback coins before the market caught the upwind and spiked to where this person would end up with fewer coins than they sold for the $....
August 19, 2012, 12:17:50 PM
Pirate owes people in BTC, not USD, so why would he be selling BTC to pay them back?
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
It *COULD* be (though highly unlikely) that he is driving the price of BTC down by an extreme sell, so he can buy back at bottom (thus, buying MANY more Bitcoins that he currently owns) so he can pay what he owes.
Crude example: sell 200k coins in the 15-9 range, and with that money buy 300-400k coins in the 6 to 13 range.
I thought this was obvious.
August 19, 2012, 12:17:04 PM
Pirate owes people in BTC, not USD, so why would he be selling BTC to pay them back?
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
It *COULD* be (though highly unlikely) that he is driving the price of BTC down by an extreme sell, so he can buy back at bottom (thus, buying MANY more Bitcoins that he currently owns) so he can pay what he owes.
Crude example: sell 200k coins in the 15-9 range, and with that money buy 300-400k coins in the 6 to 13 range.
But that only works if he's also the one buying back. What if I buy them all? Then he's screwed.
August 19, 2012, 12:11:30 PM
Pirate owes people in BTC, not USD, so why would he be selling BTC to pay them back?
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
If he's selling BTC, then he likely doesn't plan to pay them back... but we have no evidence that these sales are from him (though almost certainly they are caused by speculation surrounding what he's doing).
August 19, 2012, 10:56:21 AM
So does pirate currently have enough coins to pay everyone back...I don't think so.
Paying back would miss the point, wouldn't it?
August 19, 2012, 09:51:00 AM
do we keep breaking mtgox volume records?
August 19, 2012, 07:42:48 AM
someone got a bunch of free coins.......
August 19, 2012, 03:15:15 AM
So does pirate currently have enough coins to pay everyone back...I don't think so.
August 19, 2012, 02:11:33 AM
Anyway, I disagree.
I'd say the price is going down because everyone's head is still spinning from the $15 peak, and as it's the weekend, 50% haven't got deposits and 49% want to wait until monday to see if there is still interest in BTC. It's just been small ordinary sales since the crash, but buy orders have evaporated.
We're below two of my large buy-in points now. I'm kicking myself that I missed the peak - I WAS ASLEEP! LET THAT BE A LESSON TO YOU!
- but I'm not stressed yet. Worried yes. Stressed no. 
I'd say the price is going down because everyone's head is still spinning from the $15 peak, and as it's the weekend, 50% haven't got deposits and 49% want to wait until monday to see if there is still interest in BTC. It's just been small ordinary sales since the crash, but buy orders have evaporated.
We're below two of my large buy-in points now. I'm kicking myself that I missed the peak - I WAS ASLEEP! LET THAT BE A LESSON TO YOU!
- but I'm not stressed yet. Worried yes. Stressed no. August 19, 2012, 01:44:44 AM
Welp, someone just bought a big chunk.
August 19, 2012, 01:41:56 AM
Once he has sold it down to his preferred price to pay off himself and his investors, he will buy it back up.
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