Topic: the problems with future predictions of bitcoin value (Read 1086 times)
Movements in price are based almost entirely on speculation, and that speculation can change rapidly. If you believe in the protocol I would suggest supporting the protocol by bying and spending as well as saving. It's highly probably that someone has accurately guessed the price of Bitcoin in December of 2014. It is highly improbable that you will be that person, or that the person who did correctly guessed did so under the correct reasoning. I consider this kind of long-term guesswork as a waste of time. You shouldn't consider it any more authoritative than your buddy's pick for NCAA champion next year.
This is basically what's happening whith FIAT money too. Personally I define that as guesses, some more educated then others.
The value of something always changes, you can't know what unexpected event will happen at what point.
A big company like google or amazon taking bitcoin would propably push up bitcoins value a lot.
The US goverment trying to shutdown bitcoin and not allowing anyone to use it would propably bring its value down a lot, since no us based company could use it.
The value of something always changes, you can't know what unexpected event will happen at what point.
A big company like google or amazon taking bitcoin would propably push up bitcoins value a lot.
The US goverment trying to shutdown bitcoin and not allowing anyone to use it would propably bring its value down a lot, since no us based company could use it.
Hi
I am interested in bitcoin of itself ie to use as a payment system but am very interested in seeing how commentators in the media, researchers etc are going about making predictions for the future value of bitcoin.
Depending on their approach/assumptions and the nature of their model that they run various data across the results vary wildly.
the latest prediction is on another part of this forum ....https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4251386.......... but as a newbie i cannot yet post to it so am doing so here.
the problem i see just as as another poster has made is that it is not adjusted for when bumps in the road happen ( eg china banks).
I also think we are still in most of these models in the "draw an elephant" phase. (ie if you did not know what an elephant looked like would you draw the body like it is after seeing only either the trunk or the tail).
Anyhow from my reading of the researchers findings at least 3 possible values are being suggested
1. less than $50 ( assumes bitcoin crashes ie it works as a medium of exchange but has no real stored value so speculators get out at some point)
2. about $1300 ( but this is a maximum after quite a long period ( several years). there may well be big highs and lows before this level is achieved.)
3. $2000- $4000 in about 12 months time ( based on the prediction model mentioned above).
Now that is quite a range. tread carefully
I am interested in bitcoin of itself ie to use as a payment system but am very interested in seeing how commentators in the media, researchers etc are going about making predictions for the future value of bitcoin.
Depending on their approach/assumptions and the nature of their model that they run various data across the results vary wildly.
the latest prediction is on another part of this forum ....https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4251386.......... but as a newbie i cannot yet post to it so am doing so here.
the problem i see just as as another poster has made is that it is not adjusted for when bumps in the road happen ( eg china banks).
I also think we are still in most of these models in the "draw an elephant" phase. (ie if you did not know what an elephant looked like would you draw the body like it is after seeing only either the trunk or the tail).
Anyhow from my reading of the researchers findings at least 3 possible values are being suggested
1. less than $50 ( assumes bitcoin crashes ie it works as a medium of exchange but has no real stored value so speculators get out at some point)
2. about $1300 ( but this is a maximum after quite a long period ( several years). there may well be big highs and lows before this level is achieved.)
3. $2000- $4000 in about 12 months time ( based on the prediction model mentioned above).
Now that is quite a range. tread carefully
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