This is a pilot round, to test a concept. No BTC is collected nor payed out in this round.
Do you know exactly where the price is going to go, but for some reason can't use an exchange? Does leveraged trading make you yawn, but gambling makes you feel like you're twenty? Well, now you can speculate without ever touching an exchange!
I've thought up a simple game that allows people to bet what they want (just like real day-trading), but at a much slower pace, and a much more open environment. Effectively, this game converts the skill of day-trading into mostly luck, while retaining the "speculate right to win" atmosphere. The more BTC bet on a certain outcome, the less that can be won on that. This should wipe out any market influences, but not the choice involved in day-trading.
However, as with many games, these tend not to be popular. They also tend to eat up a lot of the manager's time, looking through blockexplorer for hours on end. So, I've decided to try a (shortened) pilot round without any actual BTC. Just post your bets after reading the rules. Since there's nothing but time to gain and lose, suggest whatever and ask whatever questions you wish in this thread.
If this doesn't work as well as I hope it does, obviously I won't try to manage it when real money is involved. I do have a contingency plan though: this could be moved to Speculation or Off-Topic and be based on fake "market guru" points instead if it doesn't. But first, let's see if it does work.
First, some definitions:
Weighted average price on {date}
The price that bitcoincharts lists for Weight Average in its daily data table for Mt. Gox USD on {date}, in bitcoincharts's UTC time. This is the average of all trade values over the day, weighted by volume. Note that this field is rounded to two decimal places, and those are all the decimal places used for any calculations.
One-day change from {date} to {date+1 day}
The change, expressed in percentage, given by the following formula:
Code:
(Weighted average price on {date+1 day} / Weighted average price on {date}) - 100%
Rally
A one-day change from a date to the next day that is strictly greater than 1.27%.
Crash
A one-day change from a date to the next day that is strictly less than -0.46%.
Sideways movement
A one-day change from a date to the next day that is between, and including the endpoints, -0.46% and 1.27%
Next, the rules. For each day-to-day change over a week (I'm planning on weekly rounds), there are three addresses to send to1: one to bet on Rally, one to bet on Crash, and one to bet on Sideways movement. Any amount greater than 0.0005 BTC can be sent to these addresses (amounts less than 0.0005 BTC will not be returned), and will count as a bet for the amount sent, decreased by 0.0005 BTC (to ensure transaction fees are paid for, and to compensate for my time). Bets will only be accepted if their first confirmation is in a block with a timestamp predating the day without a clear weighted average yet. After the time period has ended, the actual category is computed and all bets are totaled up and distributed among all people who have bet the winning category.
In some occasions, there may not anyone who has bet in the winning category. In these cases, the funds from this betting round roll over to the next date. Funds from the pilot round will not roll over to actual rounds, provided this works well enough to provide actual rounds.
Clarifications
1. Sub-satoshi amounts will be rounded to the nearest satoshi.
2. A half-satoshi rounds to the nearest even amount.
3. Winnings will be sent back to one of the inputs. Do not send funds from addresses you do not control.
4. Tainted funds are not given special treatment.
5. If funds (provided that it is more than 0.0005 BTC) are sent to an address after the deadline, but at most two days after, they will be returned minus the transaction fee if applicable. If the transaction fee is zero, they will be returned in full.
6. If less than 0.0005 BTC is sent after the deadline, it will not be returned.
7. If funds are sent to an address more than two days after, they may be returned depending on the mood I am in. Do not expect them to be returned; this is not a money-laundering service.
8. If you win, the winnings you receive are given by (rounded to the nearest satoshi):
Code:
Pool * BetSize / TotalWinningBetSize
Code:
TotalBetSize + RolledOverPool
Code:
AmountSent - 0.0005 BTC
Pilot Round
This round covers this week2. Please check a block-exploring tool for updated bet amounts. As this is a pilot round, instead post the amount of BTC bet.
2012-07-28 to 2012-07-29
Deadline: 00:00:00 UTC 2012-07-29
Code:
RALLY: -pilot round-
SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT: -pilot round-
CRASH: -pilot round-
2012-07-29 to 2012-07-30
Deadline: 00:00:00 UTC 2012-07-30
Code:
RALLY: -pilot round-
SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT: -pilot round-
CRASH: -pilot round-
2012-07-30 to 2012-07-31
Deadline: 00:00:00 UTC 2012-07-31
Code:
RALLY: -pilot round-
SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT: -pilot round-
CRASH: -pilot round-
1: Because this is a pilot round, no actual addresses exist.
2: This round only covers three days because it is a pilot round.