Topic: The reason it's hard to predict the BTC price right now and in the near future (Read 1180 times)

I wrote a post in another thread last November related to this topic, but never got much reply to it... so seems appropriate to maybe repost here. What do you guys think? (copy below...)

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Anyone who heard about bitcoin (or, like me, who'd heard about it earlier but only finally began to take it seriously) only AFTER the last big run-up, is likely in the same situation.  Price falling for 18 months kinda sucks, yeah, but y'know just looking at the past price charts I figured something out for myself that's helped me a lot in coping with it.

Seems to me, most assets or investment vehicles that we are familiar with (stocks, etc) follow a typical long term pattern of slow, incremental increases with occasional periodic big-drop crashes.

It's like most investments go:
a little up,
a little up,
a little up,
a little up... then
BIG BOOM DOWN (but not below starting point), then again...
a little up,
a little up,
a little up... etc.

Bitcoin, in contrast, seems to me like it's following the exact opposite behavior.

Bitcoin goes thru these incredible periodic huge but infrequent 10X-SPIKES UP... then it calms down and goes thru normal price-falling periods, like:
a little down,
a little down,
a little down,
a little down... and then,
BAM!!  Huge 10X Spike UP!!!  Then again...
a little down,
a little down,
a little down... etc.

It's difficult to cope with this, unless & until you can SEE (and believe in) this pattern.

Because what this all boils down to is, unfortunately, MOST OF THE TIME the price of bitcoin on a day-to-day, even month to month basis, WILL USUALLY BE GOING DOWN.

Since the price is just usually gonna be falling, ya just gotta get into a mindset of buying buying buying and HOLD ON ("hodl" LOL)

Just accumulate as much BTC as you can... at any prices, really, so that when the next BIG SPIKE TIME finally comes, you'll benefit from one of those 10-X, ten-baggers.

And then you'll be in The Club like current people who bought most of their coins sub-$100 "back in the day" who don't care about the short-term BTC price day to day anymore, LOL

Of course, that "next 10x spike" may NEVER come... and that's the main risk we take. 

But I think there's a pretty good chance it will show up, one way or another, sooner or later.

I myself have never yet lived thru one of these 10X events but here's hoping it'll still happen. 

Hodl, Hodl, Hodl...   

We already have socialism.  But just for the rich.  What do you think those bail outs were for?  And by rich, I don't mean your dad is a doctor.  I mean the real 1%ers, the guys running wallstreet.  The guys telling Obama what to do.
 
Anyway we are in an asset bubble right now, and I really think that bitcoins can be the safe haven when it pops.  I don't know when, but I am sure of a rally in the next few years.  If the problems of 2008 come back, as they should one way or another, then I see the price having much potential.  In the short term it seems to me that the price is really solid around the low 270's now, and I expect either a trading range, or a rally above 300.  It could go down of course, but I hope that does not happen.

It's not really that simple.  In this deflationary depression, liquidity is gone, the common man has no money to buy anything.  Commodity prices are down.  Oil is forecast to be in the dumps with lots of excess supply and no price recovery soon.  Things like gold can be manipulated into the toilet.  If all of these assets crater in price, let's say gold even went to like $400, nobody can say how that's going to affect Bitcoin.

Maybe people will say, oh, gold price is worthless, time to buy Bitcoin.  Or maybe they will say, gold is on sale, time to buy gold.  Bitcoin's reputation as "digital gold" can cause it to recieve both positive and negative influence from the PM market no matter which way it's heading.

Manipulation mechanisms aside, the prices of real estate have shown us that people have far more faith in land than gold.  It's pretty obvious that depsite how many times people say it, gold doesn't have real intrinsic value, while land obviously does.  When you hear control freaks, or socialists, talk about creating their fantasy planned "resource based economy", gold doesn't come up in those topics because they know it's mostly just an arbitrary rock that requires everyone to participate in the same confidence game for it to have value.

As I've said before, every form of currency is a confidence game, so it's not a hit on Bitcoin.  Bitcoin has properties that create a far more frictionless economy than gold does, so it's possible it could replace gold entirely.  It all depends on what confidence game the masses of people and whales choose to put faith in.

Hope you're right. We've had a pretty long period of stability. I'm certainly ready for the next ridiculous price rise. It's about time & as you say based on logical thinking it could start any day now.


Yep, anybody who isn't buying at these prices is pretty dumb.

Agreed, there has been a long time of low prices for people to accumulate an insane amount of coins.

it's not that hard, if the price held current position for so long, you can be more assured that a new rally is coming, maybe not soon enough but is coming, otherwise the price would have had to fall

the simple thing that this did not happen is telling you that we are ready to skyrocket, same shit happened before the 1200 rally

It's hard to predict the BTC price right now because there are events coming with unknown times like the next US Marshal's auction and the return of some of the Mt Gox Bitcoins to the Mt Gox account holders after the court case. These events will probably affect the BTC price but nobody knows for certain when they will occur.

I believe the only reason why bitcoin price still didn't reach insane levels is because of the fact that the people that boarded the bitcoin train on the last hype mostly lost on their investment,
since they bought at much higher price than it is now, but when they one day see the price above that what they paid it before, regardless of weather they sold lower or not, they will want more.

The very nature of bitcoin reward halvings will act as a fuel on the fire when next bullrun happens, and if enough people follow, bitcoin will be used as a more popular store-of-value, meaning
that the bitcoins in circulation on the exchanges will decline, since they will be held like savings and investments of sort, just like some people are doing now with art, relics, and gold.

Considering BTC went from absolutely worthless to 4 billion in 6 years is already a huge sign, too bad most people can't see the potential yet and the money will flow in as the fundamentals of our civilization until now (the old school money bankster system) crashes. Things will go very ugly for a while, but we are already ahead of all of that, we made the right move by getting wealth out of that scam and getting it inside the most important human advancement since the internet. I pitty those that simply still DO NOT get it.

Global deflationary depression

Things like oil and gold are down, cash liquidity in other areas drying up.  The fact that Bitcoin actually went up during this time period seems like a kinda bullish sign.  If governments print money to try and fight it, the money doesn't actually circulate, it just goes into pockets of people who already had millions in the bank.  The demand for super luxury goods has been going up because of this, while the normal economy goes down.

Eventually, these people playing musical chairs with stocks and fiat notes will have to leave it for something else, presumably things like gold, bitcoin, or both.  The only question is how low is everything going to go before it explodes upward.