Topic: The Recent Yemeni Drone Strike & the Roles of the Pentagon, JSOC and CIA (Read 1282 times)
December 20, 2013, 11:23:16 AM
This exact same thread was already posted.
December 20, 2013, 07:08:32 AM
I don't think you need to post another thread, and the bold font makes it a chore to read.
December 19, 2013, 01:25:42 PM
The following post is a bit lengthy, and was also posted in the politics forum, but I wanted to post it here to get more exposure so I can get feedback on it from a wider audience. As a 24 year-old interested in covert military affairs, I started a new topic in this forum dealing exclusively with the efforts of managing the drone/UAV operations over Yemen and Pakistan that has now been unofficially delegated to two agencies, one which operates in an unconditionally covert capacity, (CIA), and one whose directive is to acknowledge the results of any drone strikes regardless of the results, no matter how disastrous or successful they may be, the Pentagon. At least, that is their official mandate. I know many on these forums, both citizens of the United States and those abroad, have passionate views on drone strikes taking place globally by the U.S. and I would appreciate any responses you might have, both those furthering the discussion and those that strongly disagree with me. Please, don't hold back.
The 15 people killed in Yemen via a recent U.S. drone strike is a tragic situation, but you must remember that Yemen is a war zone. Its government struggles daily against the possibility of a coup d'état from at least three individual extremist entities. The place is lawless, comparable to the tribal areas (Waziristan) in Pakistan, except on a larger scale. AQAP has access to highly-trained soldiers as well as Hezbollah-trained commandos in its arsenal. These specialized Hezbollah units are small but are experts in guerilla tactics, kidnapping, and full-on intrusion. They are not the same Hezbollah grunts fighting in Syria. They may even have their own copycat form of extraordinary rendition in executing kidnappings for ransom, which would be useful when capturing the President of Yemen or other political leaders.
That being said, Yemen is no place for a wedding convoy that, at first glance, cannot be distinguished from a militant convoy spotted by a drone flying at 15,000 feet. It breaks my heart that this happened, but if I was a Yemeni or even an American participating in the convoy, perhaps as a security detail (hypothetically speaking)
THE LAST THING I WOULD DO IS JOIN A WEDDING CONVOY, LIKELY MOVING AT HIGH SPEEDS WITH HIGH-QUALITY VEHICLES THAT MAY HAVE BEEN RENTED FOR THIS SPECIAL OCCASION (after all, how many people drive in Yemen?) THE PRESENCE OF A CONVOY THAT FITS THESE CRITERIA IS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THE U.S. WOULD CONSIDER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR TRANSPORTING AN HVT (high-value target).
Perhaps, the Pentagon saw this happening and pulled the trigger, thinking that this might be Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, the most technically experienced bomb-maker in Al-Qaeda's arsenal. He is believed to be hiding in Yemen. I'll explain this in detail further down in this post, but a similarly important target, albeit with a different skill set, was taken out under the same circumstances in Yemen, in a convoy. However, the latter target was taken out with no collateral damage after extensive confirmation of intelligence while the former attack seems to have been carried out on a whim, with minimal intelligence. The CIA was responsible for the successful attack, while I believe the Pentagon is responsible for the recent killing of innocent people with no militant threats present among them .
One might think, oh, well, if the American's been invited to a Yemeni wedding, this will offer us protection in the convoy as he may have made the U.S. aware of his presence. Unfortunately, if it was established that there was an American in a convoy of Yemenis, he might immediately be considered an American-born terrorist leader. Think, Anwar al-Awlaki, who was an American citizen killed without hesitation in a drone strike in Yemen in a similar convoy. He was a communications and propaganda expert for Al-Qaeda. The possible illegality of this action is not relevant as CIA had control of this particular drone strike (al-Awlaki’s) IMO, this guy presented an emerging national security threat. His charismatic personality and his youth, combined with the fact that he spoke perfect English (no accent) as well as fluent Arabic made him one of greatest persuasive speakers Al-Qaeda ever had. This ability allowed him to subtlety manipulate middle-eastern people, Americans, British and European citizens through twisted interpretations of Islam, compelling them to wage Jihad against the West. The ACLU (an organization that I believe is necessary) must've drank a little too much liquid courage when they vowed to argue that U.S. citizens are exempt from attacks by their home country while abroad. I'm not sure if the ACLU knew they would eventually be hearing from CIA or not, but they eventually settled down.
I SAY ALL OF THIS TO PREFACE THE SITUATION AT HAND.
It is my firm belief that CIA was NOT responsible for the latest drone strike. Any intel gathered for supporting the execution of the latest wedding-convoy attack that killed 15 civilians was either inaccurate or was disregarded by the PENTAGON. Any intel should have been analyzed further by the intelligence officers on-hand or at least shared with CIA. IMO, CIA would've gathered enough intel to know the schedule of the wedding procession before-hand from assets on the ground.
Drone strikes in Pakistan, while not popular, seem to have considerably more strategic intelligence available to aid these operations. It is likely the Pakistani equivalent of CIA, the ISI, is working with them to eliminate dangerous targets in tribal areas of Pakistan. Yes, this is the very same ISI who knew OBL’s location in their country for months if not years beforehand. Intelligence gained by the U.S. was likely being shared with the ISI and they are an agency who has a long history of reciprocating when dealing with tribal areas like Waziristan, an area they cannot control. It is an area stuck in a time period comparable to the time of the wild-west in American history, only with much bigger guns and inhabited by people relishing an opportunity to become martyrs using ANFO, Semtex, C4, and sealed artillery shells left over from the failed Soviet invasion in the 1980’s. These shells make devastating IEDs. ANFO bombs, as a refresher, were used by Tim McVeigh when he committed the Oklahoma City bombing in, I can't remember exactly, either '94 or '95. However, a large enough ANFO based IED can penetrate ANY armor in existence today, the limiting factor being only the amount of ANFO produced. A 200 lb. ANFO IED would disable the tracks on an Abram’s M1, but a 2,000lb IED has successfully penetrated the hull of a British Stryker APC, which was previously thought to be bomb proof. It killed everyone inside.
In deciding whether or not a target is an enemy combatant involves making real-time decisions based on evolving intelligence such as the point-of-attack, whether or not the target is on his way to a larger group of militants, his identity and the limiting of collateral damage.
At least, it used to be this way.
Recently, within the last 8-12 months or so, CIA has unofficially and reluctantly begun the transition of the drone strike directorate to the Pentagon (AKA DoD, Department of Defense). This was not their decision and I’d venture to say they are furious about it. Some of these duties are further delegated to the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), the very same group responsible for orchestrating the successful SEAL Team 6 raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan that eliminated Osama-bin-Laden. This massive success was made possible by CIA’s intel. JSOC wouldn’t have any idea of his location otherwise.
It seems to me that that there has been an undeniable trend in the increasing incidence of civilian kills since this transition began; especially the civilian kills in Yemen over the past few months. The ratio of militant to civilian kills in Yemen this year I'll conservatively estimate at 8.5-1, respectively, including this latest event. This is an unacceptable rate of collateral damage. Complete figures are hard to come by as the U.S. govt. has until recently, completely denied the existence of any drone strikes conducted due to the fact that CIA was responsible for them and is legally not required to disclose their activities to any of your typical Senate Intelligence Committees, let alone any the American people. Furthermore, because the Pentagon has not officially taken control of the UAV program, the blame for these reckless attacks is still falling on CIA, even though the Pentagon is the party fucking shit up.
The CIA is protected, which makes them a perfect scapegoat for situations like the most recent blunder. This became a problem as drone strikes in Yemen began to mount In October, when events seemed to indicate that the Pentagon had been in control, unofficially, of the Yemeni drone program. The results seem to indicate they have taken over the Yemeni program completely without any regard for CIA’s concerns. Almost 70% of the 80 documented kills in the month of October 2013 turned out to be civilians, roughly 57 innocent people. The CIA has killed civilians in Pakistan, sure, but on a minimal basis compared to their success rate in taking out HVTs.
This latest event provides some insight into why drone strikes seem to be executed more recklessly. The CIA resents the fact that they are no longer in control of the drone strike program in Yemen. The Pentagon (DoD, JSOC) has decided they can handle it all by themselves. The DoD is likely not cooperating with CIA and CIA likely resents the fact that their duties have been transferred to an agency which has limited experience and capabilities in utilizing drones responsibly and limiting collateral damage, in addition to gathering raw intelligence. The fact that they’re supposedly shouldering the burden of any failed missions publicly doesn’t affect them in any way, especially given that they won't have to worry about that until the transition is publicly announced. They are simply too large an agency, protected by CIA and the President. FISA courts are the only entity that could possibly stifle their incompetence and require that they change. The CIA, when aided by CIA, operates at a level above all government agencies, including the executive branch, limited only by the FISA court, which decides what capabilities they may or may not utilize, PRIVATELY.
Congressional outrage over CIA and NSA serve only to distract the American people from the fact of their abysmal performance in all aspects of duties they were elected to perform. The NSA saves thousands of lives here and abroad every year.
Like I mentioned in a post previously when PRISM had been leaked, this program is fodder compared to what programs are really in play. Ed Snowden was only a third-party contractor for CIA, he has no knowledge of what's really happening there. He's not a hero but I don't think he should be jailed either. If he really had serious classified data, the plane he took to Russia would've suffered engine failure and crashed, as is a common occurrence there. Any information he leaks seems to cause a weakening of trust between our allies, but let's be honest here, those countries are only jealous they couldn't gather data to the extent we're able to and, believe me, they've tried to.
Sorry for the text-wall, but in summation, the Pentagon and the overgrown bureaucracy they have become is to blame for what happened in Yemen, not CIA nor CIA. If the Yemeni and Iraqi government were any stronger, this situation would look more like the conflict in Syria. Maybe CNN would cover it then. The Arab Spring was the best thing that could have happened for Al-Qaeda post bin-Laden. If the Syrian government ever falls, it will become just like Iraq and Yemen, with or without U.S. intervention.
If that does happen, Israel will be forced to act and us with them. That's when you'll witness the true power of Mossad, CIA, and CIA working together in a way which will redefine the way America's and Israel's capabilities are looked at, with fear and awe instead of suspicion. That's for another time and a new topic, though.
Thanks for reading and if you like what you read, donations are always accepted, no matter how small.
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P.S. If you're wondering why I didn't preface CIA or NSA with the word "the" ex. "the CIA" it's because when you pray, do you begin by saying, "Dear, the God?"
The Pentagon doesn't deserve this distinction. Jump to: