Topic: The Role of Currency Spectators In Currency Value Case Study of 9ja ₦ vs $ (Read 441 times)

Na this fear meself dey fear. The Government don try to hold control of the Naira by reproducing, by scarcity and by inflation. I dey surprised say OP's rate of Naira to Dollar which is 460 to 1$ is even merger compared to almost 750Naira to 1$ of which has been the rate of exchange before and during the just concluded elections.
Crypto just dey, but all man know say na the thing wey government dey target be that. If them begin collect taxes in form of charges from these crypto exchanges, e go mean say them acknowledge its existence and as such dey encourage all those wey don see the light to carry on and also pull those wey dey left behind, along.
Them know clearly say e dey better than yahoo yahoo, which don almost deface the country of its glory and men don tire to be chased by law enforcement for that.
The rate of unemployment go drop at least to the barest minimum and development go dey sure in every area.

It is now for the incoming government to strategically control crypto without actually interfering with the market. Small time, dollar rate go reduce too with its unclear adoption.

I agree with you ooo, true true sometime na we citizens dey cause a the problem for ourselves but later we blame the government for the predicament we face as a result of our own actions, I use to make one statement to those that always come around me and that is.

Nigeria's problem is not entirely to the leadership or structures, but the major problem facing Nigerians is the problem of citizens lack transparency there have failed to work collectively idea they j don't have any cash. Ewe

Do you blame the CBN for the failure of the new Naira policy, aren't we the citizens lead by our governors that took the CBN to court and won in regards to use of the old naira notes and postponement of it seizure to be a legal tender until December 2023. Sometimes na we dey shoot ourselves for leg, even though CNB policy no for be the solution to our Naira devaluation but e fit give am small strength and we fit dey use that one work for the main time.

With the rate of Nigerians going into crypto trading, the rate supposed increase normally and I dey believe say very soon, the crypto traders go be the next target, make we dey watch how things go unfold, right now crypto trading dey get free pass but when the government go come for them, na war e go be. People dey think say cryptocurrency trading no dey get any influence for the forex market especially dollar rate but it's now one of the major influencers on the market, abi una never hear about crypto dollar rates?

I agree with you on the cashless policy being a possible panacea to restoring the naira's lost value but then the policy failed again just like the e naira is failing and every other monetary policy of the current CBN regime is failing, the problem with the Nigeria nairas value is domestic and if the naira most regains its value it must start first at the local market and the rate of inflation need to really be cut down and that will require government direct involvement in the pricing of good and services within the economy.

Once there is a price control it will become easier for the CBN to make and implement any monetary policy they intend to such as the cashless policy and the e naira drive.

My fear now is that, hope the anti graft agency will not start putting eyes on cryptocurrency traders in Nigeria in time to come, because from the finamcial news i have being watching on channel tv, it seems cryptocurrency trading volume is increasingly high lately and bitcoin is at the center of things and if the CBN could go after local currency speculators, its like possible there will also pay attention to other forex exchange commodities such as cryptocurrencies. The

Anti-craft agencies should go arrest the government officials, but looking deeply in most of things happening in our country you don't have sanction any p2p exchange or black market trader. These same banks are the people who don't dispense  dollars in their banks.

I went to bank in purchasing of dollars I was told there's no dollars along the line a staff ref me to someone at Phc GRA to purchase dollar main while it was 450 per 1$ official rate so while black market is 750, seeing that the margin is much they practically recruiting an agent people who will trade at road side and get them instant profit than what banks would raised with the next 30 days, after which they will remit 450 out of 740 to government meaning 290 Naira as a profits from every single trade of 1$, and you think they aren't collaborating with each others to steal from her poor citizens?
Moved down to Binance, in binance they are using black market price to trade since banks doesn't maintain the official rate by issuing her customers direct dollars than them buying from roadside.

There's a says that said " Before you cure a sick person first source out the causes of their problems before issuing out drugs to them otherwise it results to a blind treatment".

That's to say you won't go ahead arresting or sanctioning those people without first dealing with the government and bankers (CBN), they are all one.

I don't understand how you want Naira to be used for international transaction when those transaction are international. Like how will you be paying for services that are in Us with Naira. That can only be possible if they have their branches in Nigeria then they can work on how to get the service with our local currencies just as we pay for DStv with our naira because they have established themselves in Nigeria. Even when deals are been carried out by international Bodies they use the dollars or other world recognized currencies.

We giving the Naira value has to start locally, this cashless policy would had gone a long way in enforcing that value couple with some economy policies adjustment that'll look appealing to foreign investors but no the government still dey sabotage themselves. CBN banning currencies has alot to do with the currency speculators, even now you can see that crypto dollars is higher than the normal dollars and all this does have it's effect on on the general market. Naturally people will tend to what to trade in crypto so they can get more Naira for their dollars, it's just dat simple.

Bro abeg me I never see any effort wey dem don make all. Since 1999 at least we never see any better thing wey government do. If you dey think say naira redesign go help the dead currency to come back, abeg make you forget that one because redesigning for now isn't the solution in the face of no production. Nigeria no dey produce anything, no electricity, no road and other amenities wey go reduce concentration on dollar demand. Now CBN don say dem go release the old 500 and 1k ,so wetin dem finally achieve with the redesign. Or just one thing wey I see dat have reduced is kidnapping for now but that is not even their aim for redesigning the naira.


No it is not justifiable. The government is not able to sincerely control the dollar because so many things are lacking in the Nigerian system.


Me I no even blame them. In fact if e no be them self ordinary man no go even get access to the dollar. Them go carry all put for their backyard as them don do for new naira currency. The people wey dey travel or do international business for dey hear am no be small. So dem don be middle men between banks/CBN and masses.

That could work but the major problem with Nigeria is our internal economy the high rate of inflation and the various economic recession witnessed by Nigeria during this regime have made matters worst, and cryptocurrency has nothing to do with that rather cryptocurrency have helped a lot of Nigerians youths to become financially independent through decentralization since the problem with underemployment of the youths as a result of their economic restriction through the banking systems and the micro economy in its entirety.

-CBN under the current regime has failed to provide an adequate levelling environment for young Nigerians to compete with their counterparts in other parts of the world thereby limiting the economic activities of the Nigerian citizens, this has been reflected in the kind of policies and programs that are sponsored by the CBN such as the dollar to naira deregulation and the subsidy payments on dollars to naira exchange all this have helped corrupt politicians to exploit that lipholes and understanding the financial implications of this to the economy.

-9ja inflation rate has risen repeatedly in the last few years and that has continued without CBN intervention rather the CBN has made some policies that have further depleted the citizen's resistance to high costs and made them vulnerable in the hands of private sectors or foreign goods for basic. Consumption

-On the issue of the Nigeria bank vs Cryptocurrency we will dive into that in a more detailed discussion in the future safe bro.

So this is why CBN banned cryptocurrency transaction with banks. But they should know that this plan is likely not going to work , one of the ways in which Naira can get some value is that if we can be using naira to make international payments especially in cryptocurrency without converting to dollars at first. I don't know good is  my suggestion and if is the CBN that will grant access in using naira to make international payments without converting to dollars

It depends oh, that one na just a small part of the bigger problem, and the Nigerian government suppose look themselves critically before them begin go after currency speculators, are they themselves doing anything to cause economic growth and increase our foreign reserves, currency speculators just they take opportunity when them see am, and na our government they give them that opportunity. If to say we they produce goods locally for export, or we get enough refineries so we go they export petrol and not to import it, we no go they talk about this problem today na.

If the foreign reserves they insufficient, abeg wetin you want make currency speculators do, they have to take advantage na, and when them see say demand choke, na to increase the price they go so na. We be consumption country, we no they produce anything, we no they create jobs, we no they export anything, macroeconomics no good, government policies they kill microeconomics, etc, etc, if we begin tackle all of these, inflation rate go drop, value of naira would go up and e go come they easy to go after currency speculators, though them no go even too they, because to make profit go hard.

The issue is very clear. To salvage what op has said is very simple but the government will not do it because of corruption. There are three organs of government, the law makers, the law interpreters and the law implementers, now the law has been made to execute the offenders, but they are not doing anything to publish the offenders. CPC now ICPC, EFCC NDLEA Nigeria Police Force etc are all corrupt so they can not do anything to that effect. Now for more than two months Nigerian Civil Society Groups asking the president/the court to remove Bawa but they give def hear. So di inequality btw di two Nigeria exchange market and di parallel market is caused by di so agencies dat r unproductive in di public service.
We just need a gud government in di kwantri. A government dat will work hard to eliminate all di corrupt elements in di kwantri.

The gap between the official dollars price and the black market is too much and that have been the mojar factor that have increase the rate of inflation in 9ja internal economy,  because the price of things are now left to the mercy of speculators, the fact that Nigeria depend solely on foreign good make the matter worst because there is no price control and the pricing market is left for speculation,  bit if Nigeria have domestic production that meet the demand of consumers it could have been more better for the inflation control unit of the economy.

-this inability have led the CBN to go on a full fleg witch hunting of currency exchangers who are termed currency speculators.
May be you visited a p2p exchange which depend on your collective bargaining if not the price of $1 to the naira on Binance and remitano was way above ₦741 which shows almost 25% to 30% difference between the official price and the black market price.
When the head is faulty the whole body will be corrupted,  same as 9ja situation, since the president does not have administrative experience,  every other sector such as the CBN will liberate on this to commit various atrocities.

-So what we see is what we get until may 29th when the next president will be swear into power.

The thing has been turning into a lucrative business because those that have access to the forest from CBN buy at a lower rate from the official market and then resale it in the black market just to make their gains, and when CBN listed the BVN of those involved in the act,  those who seek forest for international used make the largest in the list such Nigerians in the diaspora and international students who seek forest for tuition fees and expenses, until the CBN made some changes in the forest rate to such individuals and listed their BVNs on red flags for involving in currency trading recently.

E get people wey dey cause all this problem and na those people the law enforcement agency supposed they go after no be the crypto market traders or Black market traders but you see those supplying this dollars to the black market, na dem wey EFCC supposed they put eye for because I believe this suppliers are the bankers demselves or dem they buy am from the banks which is criminal since dem purposely they inflate the price by limiting its supply in the banks so the black market can sell at costly prices.

These people incharge of the dollars know say if then put an for bank, dem no go get better profit compared to selling it in the Black market so they takeaway the dollars from the bank to the black Market. There's a whole industry behind this operative and if the government's wants to combat this issue then they should target the suppliers and leave the traders alone. These traders are just there to find daily bread and E no go make sense to go they attack them.

Arrest bawo   lol. Sometimes I go dey think say whether the people wey seat for government seat no sabi think? Because most of us know why our naira dey fall yakata. When I mean government seat I mean in fact the number 1 seat wey be the president because na there everything end as far as Nigeria kind of democracy dey concern and this is unfortunate as the legislature and judiciary dey subsumed under the president not even the executive. We know say na because the level of the rate wey dollar demand dey increase dey high since we no dey produce anything even toothpick self and people need dollar to take buy imported products. People also dey jakpa, dem also dey carry enough dollar join body abi na politicians wey don dey hide dollar now no be even naira again. APC distribute dollar for this election, in fact no dollar for banks as we dey now. So parallel traders or P2P merchandising no be the problem because dem go also operate according to the economic theory of demand and supply.

The solution na to dey produce somethings den it will reduce the pressure on dollar and so many things go naturally fall in place by demselves. This na common sense but these people no want gree do am, then allow Obi nko dem still dey form jagasomething.

This has become one of the booming business in Nigeria, most of the people who have relatives leaving in the US have turned this into business and that gave rise to more black market speculation since the CBN/BANKS does not have available dollars in the volt to meet the demand for the currency within the country.

-Because of the unavailability of the dollars at the official forest market the Nigeria stock exchange vendors and customers have to rely on the services of alternative currency suppliers who are in the unregulated black market, this place is entirely for business and your bargaining skills can earn you a few kobos on the naira, but the price is double the official bank price, but hey who cares as long as the dollars are available.

I don't think the CBN should go against the currency speculator with EFCC. The thing here is that the CBN is not doing anything to help the situation. They did not do anything when the price of the black market rate was gradually shifting from the CBN's rate, so the only solution they can provide now is to make dollars available to citizens who need them (for business) so they do not have to buy them from currency speculators/P2P. This is a business avenue for the speculators and one cannot really tell the difficulty they undergo to get the dollar they exchange.

But the thing here is that some folks who are selling dollars in the black market are making a huge profit, but it will be bitter when you're buying. Why I said this is because if one has a relative living in the US and is opportune to receive dollars from them, they can sell them on the black market for $1/#740 instead of selling them for $1/#460 to the bank.

I think say e dey wrong for anti graft agencies to dey go after currency speculators because currency speculations na guess work and e get him own risks as you know really no weda the dollar go fall or rise... but in our own case I think e dey easy to speculate because our government never really do more to help the naira. Just as Charles bin yarn d demand for dollar dey high and e dey rise everyday because of the increasing numbers of nigerians wey dey go abroad to school, for tourism, and medical trips. Other factors like high importation rate, economic crisis, government policies dey also affect the naira-dollar rate. Currency speculators na something wey we suppose accept as e dey very vital in facilitating the easy exchange of currencies, na for our government to do their own part to make our naira dey stronger.

As of yesterday morning, the black market exchange rate was 720 per $ at Rumuola Port Harcourt. Which is higher than what I exchange last time I visited.

The CBN don't have control over the Dollar market outside it's banks operative, I'd they want the Naira not to be devalued over the Dollar then they should put up some efforts to increase the economy of the country. Sanctions and price impose to the people is never going to work and it has never worked in any where. the best fight against any foreign currency is for the country to increase in productivity and reduce exportation by doing so the demand for the foreign currency will reduce which will in turns reduce it's price.

Back to your question regarding if the government through EFCC is going to arrest currency speculator in P2P,
My answer is No, although their is nothing which this government can't get warrant over, but it will really be unwise for the government to take that step, how many P2P exchange will they have to visit in other for them to achieve that?

This situation is confusing me because the interval is very high now between the CBN and the parallel markets. This has been known to everyone because during this past election where they distributed dollars it happen that I was their, they were given $100 note, I then said this is not up fifty thousand Naira (#50,000) they started looking at me as a criminal. I calculated it based on CBN rate for them so that I can buy it from them to make some profit, they said the price is more than what I was saying.
Can this difference be solved, what if the CBN decide to increase their price reference to the Black Market our Naira will be in a total mess.

I would have said it was justifiable to use anti-graft agencies to go after the speculators, but even though their prices are relatively high compared to CBN rates, they've served and made purchasing easier for citizens who buy and import goods outside the country because the government can't fully be there for them to grant them access to dollar when they want to exchange it with naira, which has caused more harm than good to many international traders in the country.

In Nigeria, I believe the government must always play a strong role in anything that affects the country, whether positively or negatively. A serving house of rep member explained how the CBN governor can make one rich overnight by tampering with the ₦ to $ price in the parallel market during a live TV show on Brekete TV one time. In his statements, he confirmed that the CBN and the government have a role to play in the parallel market in order to profit from it. Because this is unknown to the general public, we can't entirely blame the speculators/p2p exchanges for their exorbitant prices based on the $ rate.

The margin between the CBN rate and the parallel (black) market rate before was very close, but Nigerians that are demanding for United States dollars are increasing and the rate they are demanding for foreign currencies in general is increasing. Nigerians have more been dependent on imports more than they export and this is depleting the foreign reserve.

Because of that, the CBN have tried all means possible to inconvenient Nigerians, example is the naira master cards that Nigerians can use to make over $3000 or maybe more international transactions before in the past, but it was later reduced by CBN to $100. Later, CBN makes it impossible for Nigerians to use naira master card for international purchases and services. Although, you can go to bank and request for a dollar card. But like me, I have not even done that up till now. I believe people making international purchases using card might have reduced because if this. This is one that I know, but a means CBN is looking for ways to reduce requests for foreign currencies.

The CBN tried all other ways to inconvenient Nigerians but not increase the dollar exchange rate to the amount it supposed to be, therefore decreasing the value of naira not up to the price it supposed to reduced it to. But in the parallel market that is determined by how people are (demanding for) or trading naira to dollar and other foreign currencies, the demand for the foreign currencies is higher than the CBN prices for them. CBN only tried to manipulate the price, but the demand price is what people are going for. The higher the demand the higher the price.

To protect the foreign reserve depletion and to pay workers salary, the government through the CBN do reduce the value of naira, but if the demand for foreign currencies is what that is reducing it, the CBN will like it inorder to protect the foreign reserve. The demand may continue to increase, but this will increase the dollar price too and the foreign reserve depletion will reduce.

With the persistent De valuation in the value of the Naira on the exchange market,  over the years the Nigeria naira has constantly lost its value to the united state dollar, which is a global exchange currency perimeter, and the lingering negative impact on the economy and it impact the value of goods and services in the Nigeria internal microeconomic and the values of both currencies have led to a hike in the price of goods and services within Nigeria.

-A lot of efforts have been put in place to salvage the already worsening situation of the naira against the value of the dollar, in Nigeria, we have the official price of a dollar to naira according to CBN to be ₦460.54 vs $1 but we all know the fact that the central bank or any other commercial banks does not have the availability of this currency so it exchange is bearly minimum.

-So the only option is to source for alternatives sources to get the dollars and that brings you down to the black market, who's the CBN call currency speculators and perceived as the enemy of the revival of the value of the traditional currency,  at the black market, we all know how much the value is on Binance exchange as at this morning the value of $1=₦741.23 so that is a big difference from the government recorded price.

-so the question is, is it justifiable for the CBN to use anti-graft agencies such as the EFCC to arrest currency speculators/p2p Exchange?

-What is the rule of speculators in the outcome of the value of any asset a case study of the 9ja ₦ vs $.