Topic: The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse. What to expect? (Read 506 times)

Russia should respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Ukraine have the right to choose their own allies. But America and European nations would always paint Russia as the devil. The world press is not helping matters.

When America and her allies destabilize Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq, they were celebrated. Libya which had the best economy in Africa during the reign of Gaddafi, is now a route and market of slave trade. Afghanistan is the devils den and Iraq now a beggarly nation. The same US and allies are enacting tight immigration policies to limit the chances of the people who they destroyed their country seek asylum.

Cryptocurrencies are the payment future of any economy. Russian ban on cryptocurrencies is only a temporal setback that will minimally impact on the crypto market negatively. Russian knows that one of the ways of bypassing sanctions is through the secured cryptocurrencies. This ban might be an economic strategy to divert the attention of their perceived enemies. They will surely lift the ban.

This topic will be relevant as long as the Putin regime (I'm not talking about the people living in the Russian Federation) threatens the civilized world, and above all Ukraine, with war. It's not about the prices of oil and gas, which Russia is rich in. If the Putin regime continues to behave like a bandit on the high road, recognizing only the right of the strong, then high energy prices will not help it. International sanctions can be very diverse and hit almost all sectors of the economy, until the Russian Federation simply breaks up into separate principalities. And since Putin has already been driven into a dark corner by the world community, further events will develop in an interesting and very dramatic way for Putin and his entourage. So to be continued...

Maybe it is time to lock this thread? Crude oil prices have crossed the $90 per barrel level and very soon we will be witnessing the pre-2014 prices ($120 per barrel). Natural gas prices are at all time high and a few weeks ago they touched $2,000 per thousand cubic meters. Given these circumstances, Russian economy is not going to collapse even if Putin and his cronies try their best to destroy it. And don't get me wrong. Any escalation in the Ukraine situation would mean crude oil / natural gas prices at a level never seen before.

I am as well--we've got plenty of Russian members here, so I'd be interested to hear what they have to say about this situation.  World politics has never been an interest of mine, but I do listen to talk radio from time to time, and lately that's all that's being mentioned.  I don't really understand the relationship Russia has with Ukraine (aside from the former now wanting to invade the latter, apparently), so I'm not sure what Russia is trying to accomplish.

And meanwhile, the US is starting to get involved, so it's not as if this is a news story that doesn't hit home just a little bit.

OP, you didn't provide any links for what you said.  Is Russia banning the use of crypto associated with the banking system or is this some sort of outright ban or something in between?  Sounds ridiculous any way you slice it, since there are so many people in Russia who are into crypto, and I seriously doubt they're going to blindly obey a mandate from the government (unless the government has a really good way to enforce it and the will to do so).

 Russia is big enough that their economy as a whole is too big to fail, it's the individual that gets a bit of a problem. Imagine China, how many people there live under the poverty line? They will say that they do not live under the poverty line at all but they are also the same people who changed the ending of fight club to show that cops managed to get Tyler Durden and put him in an asylum... they are moronic dictators so do not believe ANYTHING they say. If a Chinese government official told me that 2+2 was 4, I would question the result. China has so many people living under the poverty line, many homeless people, many starved to death people, and many people who are just poor, not starving or anything but a regular poor person, shitty house, shitty food, shitty clothes, but surviving you know? That is the majority of the citizens in a 1+ billion populated country. Do you doubt their economical power? They are insanely powerful economically as a nation because the individual doesn't matter when you are calculating something like this. The same goes for Russia but not as bad as China, people in Russia at least have "some" freedom, they are not that bad. So if you want to collapse Russia, you may make some individuals poorer, but you will not be making the whole nation collapse, in any shape or form, no matter what.

I agree that after Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum, after the annexation of Crimea, after seizing part of the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia itself forced Ukraine to take an unambiguous path to join NATO. Without the help of such a partner as the NATO bloc, it will be difficult for Ukraine to resist Russia, this is no secret to anyone. But even now, when some countries have provided technical and financial military assistance, the level of security has increased, and the level of Russian aggression has stabilized. A year ago, the consequences of such an attack would have been, if not fatal, then very sad for Ukraine, but today we are well armed with lethal defensive weapons, and we know that even a superior enemy will suffer terrible losses. That is why the Kremlin terrorist is now sitting in a bunker and does not know what to do... It is impossible to attack, it is impossible to run, it is not clear what to do, there is less and less money, the sanctions will continue...

Indeed, the conditions you mention are a bad picture of the current economic impact, but it is undeniable that the political war between Russia and Ukraine which has continued until Russia has restrained the impact of US policies on them has not yet come to a good end.  The diplomatic route that was expected to be taken did not go well, Russia continued to lower their troops to the border under the pretext of training.  If Ukraine does not take cover behind NATO, perhaps they will not cause the impact of a war that worries the whole world because the impact could provoke a third world war.

I don't really understand the relationship Russia has with Ukraine (aside from the former now wanting to invade the latter, apparently), so I'm not sure what Russia is trying to accomplish.

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

I never really understood what these huge nations were afraid of? I mean yes Russia has "some" power, but we all know they are economically weak and have been for nearly a decade now, in an economical war, there is no scenario where Russia could beat any of these huge nations.

When you consider technological improvements, Europe and the USA still far ahead of Russia as well, it is not even close, when you consider soldier counts, nato is still ahead. So all in all there is not a single category that Russia seems even remotely close to these nations.

So, why are they afraid of them? You could literally put embargo on Russia and kill off all the future potential threat that may come from them, because in that case they will really be in big trouble. Help from china could be good until one point but they will decline to be a pawn for china eventually and china will cut the help to a minimum in that case and Russia would be alone. These are all known facts, nothing to be afraid of here.

Everything is extremely simple!
After the start of the imposition of sanctions, mind you very mild ones, today Russia has lost:
- Pension Fund (a huge part of the money went to the security forces and other non-core projects)
- The National Wealth Fund (in the last 1.5 months alone, the loss has lost about 750 billion rubles)
- Severe inflation
- A total drop in incomes of the population
- Increasing the retirement age in the face of rising mortality rates, growing population affected by HIV/TB/STI/Drug/Alcoholism
- Shrinkage of all budgets - social sphere, medicine, education, .... Everything except budgets for law enforcement agencies
- Bankruptcy and closure of thousands of industrial enterprises, many of them are industry-forming ...
- Loss of part of the European market in the supply of gas / oil, after the EU gas terror this winter.
Many more factors can be listed.

Tell me, are these indicators of a stable economy?

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

Its been the same story with russia for many years now. The united states, EU, UN and NATO seek to keep russia contained. Strict economic sanctions are imposed on russia to make them dependant on china as an economic trading partner. China pretends to be russia's friend so they can get close to russia and steal all of russia's advanced military technology.

Russia rattles its saber and makes threats. Whether its russia threatening to invade sweden, russian bombers flying near to alaska, russian military ships sailing to within 30 miles of hawaii or troop build ups on ukraine's border, its all the same. So far they have all been empty threats for near to 10 years.

Whether or not that will change in the future, remains to be seen.

The EU and most european nations have weak militaries and rely primarily on the united states for safety. If american inflation rises, it could diminish the united states ability to function as global police. Which could leave many parts of the world undefended if an economic crisis occurs. If russia does attack, the best time to do so, could be in the event of an american economic crisis.

There are many pieces of the puzzle and they are all moving at the same time. Which makes it hard to say what the future will look like.

Everything is very simple. You probably know when a ruler has garbage in his head and his hands grow out of his ass, and everything in the country is stolen by the ruler's friends, and a hungry riot of a degraded population is on the horizon, WAR is needed !!! Anything can be attributed to the war - problems in the economy, divert attention from the party of kleptomaniacs, this will be the rationale for why it is impossible to hold rallies and demonstrations for human conditions of life - "WAR!!!" and "Enemies all around !!!", and as a result, "close your mouths, eat what they give you, and be silent !!!".

I'm becoming more and more convinced by the term 'a world of peace and quiet is a bad thing'. I'm still curious about what Russia's goal is in making the drama that's happening right now because we know this gas and oil producing country has a fairly high poverty rate when compared to other European countries.

war won't happen because russia and ukraine must have a million considerations. like the issue this time was used by manipulators to influence the crypto market and try to suppress the market. Who knows!!!

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

I'm not from Russia but as far as I know about Russia that's not something new about Russia NATO trying to keep Russia down and on the other hand, China is trying to pretend to be Russia's friend while they are just seeking their own benefits and surly china is just somehow trying to pretend to be Russia's friend because they are in an economic war with the USA and supporting Russia and being a friend with them can help China to have another war with the USA in another field Ukraine is just another field for these countries to have another war and take advantage from it, in the other side of the story Russia is banning bitcoin and that's maybe because of their friendship with China.

I never really understood what these huge nations were afraid of? I mean yes Russia has "some" power, but we all know they are economically weak and have been for nearly a decade now, in an economical war, there is no scenario where Russia could beat any of these huge nations.

When you consider technological improvements, Europe and the USA still far ahead of Russia as well, it is not even close, when you consider soldier counts, nato is still ahead. So all in all there is not a single category that Russia seems even remotely close to these nations.

So, why are they afraid of them? You could literally put embargo on Russia and kill off all the future potential threat that may come from them, because in that case they will really be in big trouble. Help from china could be good until one point but they will decline to be a pawn for china eventually and china will cut the help to a minimum in that case and Russia would be alone. These are all known facts, nothing to be afraid of here.

Its also what happened in Libya. Gadafi like Putin understand how to rule a country and without him, there could be chaos and look what Libya is today?

They tried changing the leader in the country and theres a mess. And are the people there regretting? Yes.  They regret listening to the destabilizers. Now people are sellling kids for food, slavery in the country is rampant.


US is in verge too. If Biden wouldnt declare military law, people in US will shot each other, homelessness, Asian hate in the country spreads. Rob stores in daylight and all these are already is happening. Heck, even Trump would adhere!

Theyd really need to change the goverment or replace Biden with a strongman like Putin.

Dictator is not a bad word centuries ago, leaders were proud to be called Dictator centuries ago. Its only today that we have another view of this word. Who decides its bad to be a dictator?

Russia is not going to war. I don't think the Chinese who invested more of the lands in the US will like it. Some big businesses in US are now owned by the Chinese, they'd rather stand along by playing a long game here by improving their economy since Germany is on thier side now with thier joint project like the oil pipeline. While on the other side of the world oil prices will double, on thier side, it could be cheaper. All of them are interested in the Chinese Belt and Road too, so that might just be the strategy.

Russia ‘very likely’ to invade Ukraine without ‘enormous sanctions’ – Schiff

Russia is “very likely” to invade Ukraine and might only be deterred by “enormous sanctions”, the chair of the US House intelligence committee said on Sunday.

Adam Schiff also said an invasion could backfire on Moscow, by drawing more countries into the Nato military alliance.

“I also think that a powerful deterrent is the understanding that if they do invade, it is going to bring Nato closer to Russia, not push it farther away,” he said.

After the California Democrat spoke, the White House said Joe Biden had spoken to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said in a statement: “President Biden made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.”

On Twitter, Zelenskiy said: “The first international talk of the year with [Biden] proves the special nature of our relations.”

He also said the joint actions of Ukraine, the US “and partners in keeping peace in Europe, preventing further escalation, reforms, deoligarchisation were discussed. We appreciate the unwavering support of Ukraine.”

Russia has amassed around 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. Earlier this week, Biden told Vladimir Putin the US would impose serious sanctions if Russia attacked.

Talks are scheduled for Geneva on 9 and 10 January. But amid tensions heightened by both sides’ possession of nuclear weapons, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that if “the west continues its aggressive line, Russia will be forced to take all necessary measures to ensure strategic balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to our security”.

Russia has for years complained about Nato encroachment. Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, which guarantees collective defence, but Nato has expanded eastwards since the fall of the Soviet Union and Kiev urgently seeks admission.

Russia invaded Ukrainian territory in 2014, annexing Crimea.

The US has supplied “small” arms to Ukraine.

On CBS’s Face the Nation, Schiff was asked what would stop Putin ordering an invasion.

“I think that it would require enormous sanctions on Russia to deter what appears to be a very likely Russian invasion of Ukraine again,” Schiff said. “And I think our allies need to be solidly on board with it. Russia needs to understand we are united in this.”

An invasion, Schiff said, would see “more Nato assets closer to Russia. [It] will have the opposite impact of what Putin is trying to achieve”.

Schiff said he had “no problem” with “going after Putin personally”, but thought “sector-sized sanctions will be the most important”.

Asked if he thought scheduled talks had any chance of averting an invasion, he said: “I fear that Putin is very likely to invade. I still frankly don’t understand the full motivation for why now he’s doing this, but he certainly appears intent on it unless we can persuade him otherwise.

“And I think nothing other than a level of sanctions that Russia has never seen will deter him, and that’s exactly what we need to do with our allies.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/russia-invade-ukraine-enormous-sanctions-schiff

If you ask a Cuban about how do they feel about Castro regime they will tell you "no nos podemos quejar". This is an expression that often means "we cannot complain", meaning that things are all right. However, there is an obvious double entendre on this one, meaning we cannot complain - as we are not allowed to. I think that is the state of things in Russia. "You cannot complain".

Putin touches the right buttons on the Russian cultural pride and sense of a being a superior country and it seems to work well with a large part of a population. You can be poor or you can struggle economically, but at least you are Russian and thus better. And this works until you are hungry and no longer feel superior, see Roman Empire decline, Germany after WWI, the USSR itself,...

As you know, now Russia is building up huge amounts of weapons and manpower on the borders of Ukraine, and according to available information, the plans of the terrorists from the Kremlin are to create a provocation (similar to the provocation of Nazi Germany on the border with Poland in 1939, and the USSR on the borders of Finland) , or casus belli, with a high probability plans to continue, but already on a global scale, the war in Ukraine. The US and the EU, as part of containment, announced very harsh sanctions, which, in the event of the start of such actions, will be applied to Russia.

After this news, and in light of the activities of the US, Britain, the EU, this week, the Russian budget has already lost about 2 trillion rubles, due to the fall in share prices, the collapse of stock exchanges and other reactions of the financial market to potential risks.

What economic problems do you think real sanctions will lead to if the Kremlin's plans to start a large-scale war come true? How will this affect the crypto market as a whole?

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

Its been the same story with russia for many years now. The united states, EU, UN and NATO seek to keep russia contained. Strict economic sanctions are imposed on russia to make them dependant on china as an economic trading partner. China pretends to be russia's friend so they can get close to russia and steal all of russia's advanced military hardware.

Russia rattles its saber and makes threats. Whether its russia threatening to invade sweden, russian bombers flying near to alaska, russian military ships sailing to within 30 miles of hawaii or troop build ups on ukraine's border, its all the same. So far they have all been empty threats for near to 10 years.

Whether or not that will change in the future, remains to be seen.

The EU and most european nations have weak militaries and rely primarily on the united states for safety. If american inflation rises, it could diminish the united states ability to function as global police. Which could leave many parts of the world undefended if an economic crisis occurs. If russia does attack, the best time to do so, could be in the event of an american economic crisis.

There are many pieces of the puzzle and they are all moving at the same time. Which makes it hard to say what the future will look like.