Topic: The single digits believers thread (Read 4608 times)

It'll reach 0, it's just the matter of time.

That's not news those are events. Going from $5 to $6 was all over news. There is so much Bitcoin news, now we need cataclysmic events to drive people into action, the news is just oil in the cooking pan.

You propose that if say... Spain went the same way as Cypress that we would not see a jump in price or inversely if Bitcoin was made illegal and the US based exchanged were shutdown?

That doesn't seem deluded at all 

The market doesn't care about news.

Penny for your thoughts?

 

Market is too bullish right now. Only thing that will stop the rally is catastrophic news.

Single digits.....yes.

Ok, where to start...

First off, in your first paragraph you talk about the volatility being because of manipulators, and then in the second paragraph you talk about how it is a free market with no regulation or Manipulation

Mixed signals there.

But a lot of regulation is meant to smooth out volatility, and make it harder to manipulate the market. It still happens, and often times the regulations end up going too far and just add more pointless work. But that is just a symptom of pencil pushers making more work just to keep themselves employed and because they think if they can make a rule for everything, then they can control human behavior(Wrong, btw, but that is another rant for another time...)


Second, you say that bitcoin should be all about supply/demand, in other words 'So say we all!' there is nothing driving the price other than personal opinions, no outside factors at all. Which increases the volatility and leads to the massive swings we have seen, and will always see out of bitcoin in its current form.


Third, you cant just throw out every traditional technical analysis tool just because of bitcoin. A lot of those tools are based on human behavior and that isnt going to change just because bitcoin showed up to the party.


And last but not least, no one really knows what ASIC will do. It will make the difficulty skyrocket yes. The higher difficulty will increase safety against a 51% attack, but it will do nothing to stop people from manipulating the price of bitcoins what so ever. Meaning there will still be the crazy volatility.

But, when people that are only mining on a gpu get shut down because of the difficulty spike, will they continue using bitcoins, or will they just wash their hands of it? How many people are going to be willing to buy a ASIC farm just to support the bitcoin network.
If the mob starts buying dedicated ASIC hardware it will likely signal that bitcoin is around to stay, If only a select few buy massive amounts, it could well signal the end of bitcoin. The whole point of bitcoin is that no one owns it. If a relatively small group owns all the hashing power, the point is lost. And instead of the gov owning the system, it becomes owned by farm operators.

In other words, ASIC could end up killing bitcoin. Or it might make it a lasting thing. No one really knows.


And lets not even bring up the fraud aspect. (scammer tags get thrown around almost daily on these forums it seems like )


Anyways... Too many people on these forums seem to think fiat is simply evil and should be entirely abolished. They seem to thrive on the idea of tearing down the system for fun. Or ""Rebelling against the Machine!".
*Snickers*
Simply put, it will never happen. Both fiat, and bitcoin have their own respective niches. Both have their benefits and flaws, and people just need to understand both.

BTC value should be determined by supply and demand. And all we know how hard to mine BTC nowadays. Recent price volatility is normal, because manipulators (sharks) enter the town and playing with the small guys. It was so clear that this sell-off was coming: (slate article written on just before the big sell-off, Forbes and Time enter the scene, CNN almost every 12 hours written new piece of article about BTC).

I think we're entering more normal phase now. Maybe a first time in history (at least for last 100 years) people are experiencing a free market. Really free: no regulation, no manipulation, no fraud. These new generation of ASICs will change many parameters especially difficulty parameter which is very important for small guys. I mean small guys as GPU miners no matter how big their rigs, they are still small when compared to cheapest ASIC design.

Another important point have to be remembered all the time: BTC and other cryptocurrencies and its markets will change all traditional technical analysis tools of old financial community. The terminology should be modified. Example: Overbought, oversold, profit taking, etc... These words don't make too much sense to BTC and its friends. But hoarding is a word should be carefully analysed.

gold, silver, palladium, are all sort of in the same group as bitcoins to me.  People gambling on where the value of an item is going to go. Don't get me wrong, people do it on everything, but some items have some intrinsic value associated with them that helps to stabilize the price, and the first three you listed don't fall into that category to me.

But, looking at a 10 year chart, gold is fairly steady, silver a bit less. Palladium has spikes a bit more common with bitcoin, but it cant even come close to matching the swings/volatility bitcoin has gone thru.
Gasoline is fairly controlled and regulated, don't fool yourself there

bread, wheat, water are all much more tangible, and while i cant find charts for them as easy, i would be shocked if they shifted value more than 50% or so in the span of months without some massive storm/whatnot disrupting the system, and prices will return to the norm relatively fast after something disrupts the system.

That is the difference at the end of the day, bitcoins are entirely intangible. The value is strictly determined by what people are willing to pay. Much more of a "So says we all!" sort of thing, which leads to swings from 2 to 260's, and back down to 50's in months. That works out to be a what, 13,000% growth, then crashing down to 20% of peak value over a week, and i doubt we have bottomed out quite yet.

I dare you to find anything else that has the same volatility as bitcoin

The price will never follow the exact same pattern, the market will internalize any collective memory and will try to outsmart it. That being said, usually the downward slope of the bubble is long and drawn-out, as you can see in the "Post-bubble 1" chart above. This is basic psychology: on one hand people really want to believe the highs were based on fundamentals and they don't let go cheap of something that is "worth" 250$, on the other hand if they bought at $100+ the don't want to acknowledge their loss. I submit to you exhibits B and C, the Japanese real estate and stock bubbles:



The NIKKEY during the same period:


So no, I don't think were gonna see single digits for years to come.

No people look at bitcoin as a steady cash cow. Mining them at extremely low running cost and dumping them at whatever price they can get on the day. As long as you go to work and have the dough to pay for the coins they will exchange for fiat.

You like charts and reality? Just check out historical charts on any fiat money to gold, silver, palladium or whatever like bread, gasoline, wheat, water.... should I continue? Is this crap talk?

Your volatility concern deserve attention. I'm with you on this.

I don't believe it will, but I'm sure as hell hope it does... I wanna buy some coins dammit!

i was expecting single digits until around the 120-140 mark on the way up. But with the current difficulty, and how high it went before crashing, my bet is it will go down to the 20's.

More people will want to get in at the ground floor before the next bubble and that will keep the price up.

As far as if we will ever hit single digits. Of course, the only question is when be it 40 years from now when something better pops up, or something breaks the system tomorrow... Who knows... *Shrugs*


But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months.

I don't have to worry about going from a car payment, to buying crackers for dinner over-night.  Bitcoin at this point is just like buying a lottery ticket. "Will i win big? Or will i wallpaper my bathroom with loser tickets?!?"

Way to go, be wise mine cheap and milk the cash cow for what its worth. It the price is 20 or 200 does not matter (treat it as bankers bonus if its higher) As long as somebody buys it and you mine economical (some have zero running cost mind you) you make good money today and hopefully for a long time to come.

Possible but $25 to $34 is more likely, and not right away this will take time.

About the only time i see btc used as a currency is when ppl gladly overpay for things smiling all the while i paid in btc. I am rad!

Otherwise, gambling drugs gambling drugs.... Andddd rampant speculation.

Such a healthy situation. Btc cannot even beat western union yet for ease of transfering wealth in a usable form by laymen.

Down we go. Give it time.

Me? I sell this shit almost daily. Sucking usd out like a vacuum cleaner.

Looking at those charts and assuming the price follows the exact same pattern then the bottom would be at about $18. Less than $30 certainly, but not single digits

...I believe

Yup, and you can bet most of the people here saying "it's crashed, definitely time to buy now, it can only go up from here" have a $125 sell order sitting on MtGox.

To get back on topic, I speculate there is a small chance of the market overcorrecting and going down into single digits, before bouncing back to 15-20. I don't see how long term single digits are possible with the sheer amount of people who are saying "fuck it, I didn't buy/didn't sell/held too long last time, this time I'm gonna buy at the bottom and sell at $50 no matter what."

For good or for bad, $266 brought a whole lot more stupid into the bitcoin pool, now just waiting for the right time to make their easy money.

I own a grand total of .15 BTC, which is basically change from using it as a currency. I will never invest until the price has stayed within a 10% range for 3 months, that's my rule. I almost bought $5000 as play money when they are at $36, but then talked myself out of it and put it into equities. Time will tell whether I was a fool or a wise investor.

And the sellers continue to stack those coins up.  This is playing out exactly like last time.

I love ElectricMucus's Schrödinger's Cat signature, it sums up a lot.

In our macro reality you make what you want happen. I was skeptical when I got involved over 2 years ago so much so I refused to buy Bitcoin and thought if I can make some and test the economy without investing my cash it may have a chance, so I did it risk free only investing my time and ability. None the less over a long period I convinced myself this is the future. When my investment in knowledge [understanding economics and mining ] started to generate income I started to think there was a problem, and I looked for evidence to prove it.

Up until about 5 months ago I had every argument covered as to why we wouldn't stay in double digits, mainly my underlying driving motive was the economy isn't big enough, to support the price, and I still don't buy BitInstant argument that the exchange doesn't matter.

I changed my mind after reading an article someone linked to about the impending fiat collapse written before 2007 - can't find it sorry- the article made a good argument as to how scarcely could service as a store of wealth and I found it applied totally to Bitcoin.

Since then I realize Bitcoin with its fundamental problem in distribution and deflation, will primarily serve as a store of wealth and secondarily as a currency. More over a currency is the default should our growth backup economy provide to be indefinitely sustainable.

Given Schrödinger's Cat option I am open to many options the more knowledge you have the more likely one will be viable. So given we can't see the cat, you have to make a call and move on. I don't see anything to justify the single digits yet.

you've gotta be proudhoning me

Awww man, finally; Single Digits gets a thread of it's own! I am not a SD Believer, but am definitely a fan. I fear and am drawn to the idea of SD in the same way I am too post-apocalyptic fantasies. Some days I hold my Casacius coins and imagine a future where they are as worthless as Pogs.

I hope that day never comes (or do I?)

Great thread; hi proudhon! Single Digits or Bust!

A week ago, and even a day ago, I still didn't see it falling below the $30s.

When I saw this posted earlier today:

https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.png

I completely reversed my position, starting around 114, on the way down to about 94.

Personally, I'd just as soon get it out of the way, so that a more sane, sustainable rally can resume.

Have my doubts but also my hopes:)

The Lag will bring down bitcoin to singularity, go check GOX lag 28 MINS and rising while bitcoin declining..

I don't "believe" in single digits since I realize everything is just a chance.

Single digits are a strong possibility now, hell even fractional digits are possible.

Low of $8.50 later on this summer/early fall.  The long slow slide has just begun

LOL

I lived enough years to know that nobody can predict the future of a market - it will do what it will do.

This was a mega bubble like the world has never experienced before and it is possible that just because of this fact by the time this correction is over - bitcoin price shall be less than 1$, less than 10 cents, etc.

It's possible!

For most of the crypto nerds - this is the first bubble that they are going through. Therefore they have no idea how all bubbles are the same - people are talking about how "this time it's different", newspapers and TV is full of this. And then after the bubble explodes - people still believe it's gonna be over real soon and soon we shall go over 250$. But a bubble is a vicious thing - after few days, it goes up again - and lurs people to believe that they are missing the train (the infamous "suckers rally") and that here it goes up up again.... and then comes the realization that it goes no where and it drops real fast. And the sentiment is going to be so negative then we could find bitcoin trading at 10-15$. Eventually, it goes down, down, down into oblivion. Long time after this forum is dead, after bitcoin is away from the main focus, after all is said and gone - you can buy it for 10 cents...

It's possible!

Life is so random that this scenario is possible and also the scenario according to which one bitcoin goes to 100,000$ is possible.

GotBitCoins.

I posted on another thread a possible scenario


Single digits to be followed by six digits is actually possible with Bitcoin.

I don't think so either.

Alright, my apologies. I saw 41 posts and assumed you were a green newcomer that just discovered BTC is risky.

i watch bitcoin for about 2 years now, i bought some when bubble started and sold them before it crashed with big profit. what actually makes you think i am ignorant?

you're assuming "people" are as ignorant as you, and bought in without having done any research on their new investment. some, but I shudder for humanity to think all would have done that.

Besides, what generally happens when people buy into something and get burned is they either sell and forget it, or hold, wait in hope for a recovery, and do their due diligence on it in the meantime. Anyone who does the latter is going to remain, I'd say.

I believe Bitcoin will hits single digits in few months (most likely in a month).

Crash is already started, and we only need avalanche of bad news to keep it going.

There are some worrying things already:
0. bitcoin price goes up because of speculation that more and more people will want it. it worked for a while, when price was going up all the time. who would not want something that only goes up in value like crazy. however now people see how volatile and risky bitcoin is, new people will less likely to come.
1. mtgox performance issues. people should realise by now that in event of sudden crash, they may not be able to sell their coins until it hits bottom, because of lags and outages.
2. bitcoin 24 (biggest euro market) fuck up. something tells me this will end very bad.
3. bfl delays, which most likely make their miners unprofitable when they finally deliver (asumming price will keep dropping)
4. soon probably we will get some negative media coverage that are result on recent crash. we got one in poland already:
http://waluty.onet.pl/bitcoin-najwieksza-farsa-internetu,18892,5465415,news-detal
this was no 1 news story on biggest polish news site.
5. cyprus fiasco. that was most stupid speculation ever. somebody notices that few obscure iOS ranked up in spain, no context is given (how those apps performed in longer term, or are they new?), and concluded that people in cyprus want to go into bitcoin. story got even to media. some people in cyprus lost their savings and others got their money frozen, why you expect them to buy bitcoin? probably some will want their money out of banks but that's it. if you lost money at bank why would you throw them at something far more risky
6. nobody will want to hold money in bitcoin if they will be losing value every day.

Never ? Of course they will, bitcoin will never reach the 21 million coins. It's obvious that for 2130 bitcoin won't be used, and better designed cryptocurrencies will.
The BTC/USD never going to hit 40$ again ?, they almost hit that yesteday(in some exchanges even 30$ no ?), so..   
The volatility of the market is pretty high, from 120 to 60 or even 40-20$ now is just a matter of hours, as It has been seen. If this is a bull trap, and I'm confident It's, we will see 50$-40$ for sure, at least for some time.

So called spike ($260) and so called chrash ($55) was just a manipulation done by very same people. I strongly believe that manipulation directly or indirectly connected to ASICs sellers. If we are able to get last two weeks BFL and AVALON filled orders for their ASICs, we will be able to know more about this two weeks spike and chrash. And I don't believe that BTC/USD prices will ever hit $40 again.

Single digits?
No, nay never!

Without any kind of legal problems due to the goverments, a new better cryptocurrency, or a exploitable vulnerability at the protocol itself, I dont think we are gonna see single digits again.
Maybe if this is a big bull trap we are gonna see prices like 20$, or 15$.. But I don't think we are gonna see anything lower than that. Or It would be a big bear trap, with a speedy correction to the range of the 20-60$.

I was actually attempting to rank them in order of most catastrophic to least

anyone else find it ironic these two are right next to each other?

It's one thing to argue for a crash (many make compelling arguments and well, I guess they were right). But to argue for an almost fatal crash is another. IMO numerical probability alone won't cut it.

There has to be a reason for it to occur. They few things I could think of which could cause such a catastrophic event:

1 A glitch in the bitcoin code which is exploited, rendering the currency untrustable

2 Complete ban by major governments

3 Closure of SR for whatever reason

4 Gox disappears/fails overnight with no refunds to account holders

5 Proudhon is appointed 'chief price strategist' by the bitcoin foundation

Any of these events are no doubt a possibility, but certainly not something one could say has a significant likelihood of occuring?

 

This thread is only for those that genuinely believe that Bitcoin will hit single digits again at some point in the future.

Short term or long term, it doesn't matter. Get your predictions in here.

I'll start: If people genuinely believe Bitcoin is going to reach $1mil/BTC then it is statistically almost 100% likely that we would hit single digits. The current high is $266, that's only $256 away from singles. $1mil is $999,734 away. Bitcoin has already proven that it works in hype cycles, it makes sense that once a big enough bubble comes along where $1k+ moves in 1 day are the norm we would very likely hit rock bottom. This concept applies no matter where you place the ultimate value of Bitcoin, single digits are an inevitability.