Topic: The Start of a Bull Season on Bitcoin? Or a Trap? (Read 779 times)

I'm sure this is the start of a bull run market, there are many indications that can make me believe that 2023 can rise and set a new ATH record, we can see the simple thing from the volume of transactions that continues to grow so that Bitcoin can skyrocket again soon.

It's true and true that you said this, instead of worrying, or panicking, it's better to just buy bitcoin if we have extra money there and then just hold it until we actually enter the bull run.

    Because there is no effect on me if a bull trap happens because the important thing is that we have Bitcoin stored in our wallet addresses so that we are ready for anything that happens with bitcoin.

then the price continues to move to the $ 25k range and then falls back to the $ 22k range. I don't think there is any strong factor causing this to happen. The increase in price may be due to speculation that a bullish phase will occur this year or next, with so many people buying and causing prices to rise. and the decline in prices that occurs is also natural because the price of bitcoin is unlikely to continue to move up, especially after experiencing a significant price increase.

i dont think this bear market is over, from my view it will go down more than ATL last year in 15500.
maybe like 9000 is the bottom for the bitcoin this year, if not it will go opposite.
but my prediction its still not over.

I'm sure the current increase is not a trap but it's normal, it's hard to believe if there are people or companies that gambling with billions of dollars for Pump Bitcoin, especially now that there are many staking offers that can provide more definite profits than making traps in the market.

This attitude of investors towards Bitcoin is often occur. It is very difficult to understand how the movement of BTC will be. There is no tension in long-term investing. Side by side a bullish trend will come after a bearish one. Waiting until that time will be the most profitable investment in Bitcoin.

It is always wise to choose bitcoin as an investment asset instead of keeping fiat in your account. Fiat loses value due to inflation, while the volatility of bitcoin prices can help you make profit in the long term. So of course, bitcoin is the best choice regardless of what the current price is.

If you have good cash reserves, then it is safe for you to hold all the bitcoin you invest in the long term. Bullishness is expected in the coming years, so investing now will certainly get you a worth it return with the risk.

Changes in the price of Bitcoin are still possible to occur again in the first quarter of this year even though it doesn't seem to have increased so significantly at the moment, but Bitcoin still has a chance to increase again before the first quarter is over and hopefully the decline and increase that has occurred over the last two months in Bitcoin not a trap from a particular party.

Collecting more at this time for investment is a very wise choice, because besides the price is still very cheap, Bitcoin also still has greater potential for further increases in the market so that everyone is expected not to panic and remain optimistic in collecting Bitcoin and holding it.

until now more than a month after , yet we cannot distinguish if this is a Bull trap or bull run because the price stays at this level and seems like the whole 1st quarter will be something like this.

but if you are asking because you wanted to invest more? then best to accumulate now while the price is hot and cheap.

better never regret this denial in the future mate.

The beginning of the year was advantageous as the price was very high but now the price is going to reduce. The price of bitcoin is not much higher as Compared to the price of bitcoin in January.

There is no good news about bitcoin price and it is quite simple that bitcoin price is closely related with the news about it. We are hoping that bitcoin will goes up for certain time but we don't know that when will it occur. According to the estimation The price of bitcoin will elevated in next year as there will be a halving occurs in the next year, we are not familiar with the exact month.

Value are unknown by all other crypto holders but one can say about the market uncertainty price by keeping eyes on price chart.

Because there are types or classes of gamblers who only gamble to entertain themselves, we may not know that other gamblers are going through something and gambling may be their way to relieve them.

        Because I sometimes think when I want to be alone, I do gambling because I can think clearly and at the same time I also feel fun when I play gambling.

It can be a trap for those who jump on the bandwagon or when the price hits its highest this year which was $24k or $25k because after that, the price declined again. For us who did not buy lately, we also have our definition of trap, and that is when the price dumps a lot ex. below $20k.

Our assumptions for now is it's only just a normal decline and after a few days where are going to resume again on what we have started. Nothing can stop the incoming bull run anymore. In Bitcoin investing, it is important to have to have an extended patience because not all times the market is within our favor. If one is looking for an easy way to get rich then sorry, BTC is not the coin for them.

When there is a correction in the Bitcoin bull run some people say this is a trap, and I think this is a bull run and not a trap, but corrections are normal in the market, we have been at the bottom for a long time and now at least we started this with a small bull run, besides the direction of the move This graph is uncertain, it doesn't always decrease and vice versa it doesn't increase during it, of course there will be a correction and it also depends on demand and supply as well as adoption.


This moment was profitable for both long and short term holders and holders yesterday, even though the two have slight differences and not every user feels it, especially for those who hold it from under $20k, it's a good advantage for them although in the current state it's still giving them an advantage and this is not the same, everyone has expectations in getting results, in big and small terms.



This goes back to the strategy of each of its users, but this is a good step in preparing various plans for dealing with the market, those who choose to continue adding have targets to be achieved, of course we prepare plans for facing the market and the conditions for the future, I think it's not too difficult to face the market going forward, especially having a plan and a backup plan ready.

Holding for a longer time is just the best decision amidst these speculations amongst traders about the increase in bitcoin price being a trap or not, with a long term plan you don't feel bothered or troubled even if the price drops 19k r below, as there's an assurance that within the duration of the long term plan the bull run expected must have taken place.

Nothing is trap. You are just a impatient guy, who don’t want to hold for long, and just want to earn quick and uncertain profits. Rather than backing up Bitcoins, you are just hating and doubting this positive approach. Bitcoins are atleast trying it’s best to break the resistance and come out. In case of investment in Bitcoins, you have to be more careful and use the opportunity wisely. Just don’t complain and buy the coin if you are getting at price below 30k usd. Then hold for 3months and you will see 3x in your profits hopefully.

What is clear is that now is the time to prepare capital again to buy Bitcoin at a slightly lower price than before, because I see a correction in the Bitcoin price still occurring even though the price range is still above $20K. This is also part of preparing to get a better profit when the increase comes back, because buying when the price is still cheap is always the right solution for everyone. Although some people who have bought at the previous price still have to be patient waiting for the next increase in the market.

What's going on is not a trap, this is just a regular bull run after days of continuous bearishness. But you are right, the important thing is that the price has risen and we should enjoy this moment because we have waited so long to see it. Always prepare yourself with backup plans, even if bitcoin drops again or will continue to rise, it will never make it difficult for us.

Can be a trap or not, but I don't it was important because what we wanted is to see the price of Bitcoin rise again. We should stop thinking about but rather remember that the market is so volatile that ups and downs can possibly happen at any time. If someone will sell their Bitcoin that is their decision, we don't need to be affected by those things because a true holder won't feel panic.
Yet, it was not the time also to say we are bullish, too far from being there. We need more pumps in order to be called "bullish", might that happen when the price of Bitcoin surpasses $50k?

I never thought too far about the current price conditions, I just focused on holding at least 3 years from now, many think that the current increase is a trap because the speculators will sell stocks with large quantities to make the price drops below $ 10K, But the thing that makes me optimistic is that the number of users globally continues to increase.

Not sure about going above $20k, but it seems that is just a conservative price for the next bull cycle.

I'm thinking that maybe $30k-$40k might be the minimum price that we can achieved for this year because the block halving is going to happen around May 2024. So if we are in that price level, a good x10 might be experience so that is a huge pump for us and who knows how big the bull run will be. It could be at at a start price of $100k.

analyzing is available for everyone but not to force people to believe you because if does will you let your self being blamed once the investment fails?
this is the problem to face once you are consistently luring people to trust you and not just let them have this because of your ability ,skills and knowledge .

Exactly. The dumped during FTT Exchange collapse is very huge damage to the market I believe and what we are experiencing now is a pullback from that event and  I am hoping we will stay above $20,000 until the next cycle or new bull run.
This level right now is where we should at if no lot of FUD happened after the tragedy of FTX Exchange.

The price of bitcoin was too cheap for far too long and smart investors took advantage of it, most likely the collapse of centralized institutions that we witnessed during 2022 did not help at all as people lost confidence in this market, but once they realized that bitcoin was still as secure as ever and that only individual business were failing and this was because of their own mismanagement then those investors decided to comeback and invest in bitcoin again.

We'll see until the 1st quarter after that how the movement with bitcoin is whether this can be an initial recovery that is quite effective or indeed it will experience a correction below $ 20k but I think at the current price of $ 23k bitcoin can hold its resistance even we see the potential it will coming in at $25k if it really can be sustained into quarter 1.
I'm not going to jump to conclusions about ATH indeed it's too far in the current year but if bitcoin lasts for the whole year $50k it means ATH will be getting closer to the next year and maybe this cycle will be faster than before.

If you are going for long term then buying on these levels wont really be a stressful thing on which you wouldnt mind on what the price it would be since you are targeting for long term but we know that not all people would really be going for long term but instead they would really be making short term approach and making buying and selling in shortest time as possible and it isnt something that easy to deal with.
We wont know if this current increase is already start of the bull run or some trap which we had been able to experience countless times before on how this market behaves on.
Trap or not then you should prepare yourself for whatever things that might happen because everything is really that unpredictable and there's no way on knowing it.

I was actually looking at the previous trend with Bitcoin and yes we are already on this cycle and its possible to repeat it. Many are anticipating the market to pump now, but to be more careful you should need to wait for other confirmations and analyze the trend properly. There might be a higher chance for the bull trend as we are about to end the first month of 2023 at a better price. Good news and big investors are also coming in, this is the usual scenario for a bull market.

Even though most of the assumptions are in this direction, we still cannot relax our vigilance because there could be several more falls that will be accepted as has always happened in the past year because we cannot predict what will happen and all possibilities are still there.
Even though things like this don't really matter to those who have long-term targets, still for some people this might be important.

I do not know much about charts in order to decipher a bull run from a bull trap. But I discovered something from this recent market increment and that is, the increment was genuine and not manipulated. Assuming it was manipulated the drop would have been so fast and deep. But looking at the present condition, it seems that a temporary support is trying to form at $22,000.
In conclusion, this green movement is a movement to restore hope to bitcoin.

Its not a trap especially but a reset is completely normal at some point.   There is no free absolute upwards price that never goes lower, the real thing to watch how far can we pullback at certain points.   


So its above weekly average for this whole rise from year start but for the proper reset would be putting us back to a far more substantial level like 50 day average and that is still 19k.   Thats how to view it I guess, we can easily return to about 20k or 19k and yet that also would not be too big a deal to call it a trap etc.

But in fact to this day the price of Bitcoin can stay at a price of $ 23k. We can monitor this until April. It's possible that the price will come back down, because talking of a bullrun to reach the previous ATH is probably too early at this time. But if Bitcoin starts moving, I think altcoins will jump in too. However the altcoin pump is inconsistent at the moment. After increasing the price will return to the previous price. Does not last at the last price, as is the condition of increasing Bitcoin prices.

It's still quite speculative to see what range bitcoin price will last this year, but if the pumping can keep the price steady for the next few months I think it's more to consolidate towards a total recovery process before hitting the next ATH for bitcoin and it should if that counts bitcoin journey cycle, this year is a gradual recovery step according to the consolidation process that will occur.

Personally I'm still quite optimistic that bitcoin will go to a better stage going forward and if this recovery process continues steadily then bitcoin will reach the next ATH next year and hopefully this will actually be a consolidation towards a big change for bitcoin.

So far, I'm pretty sure we haven't gotten rid of the bears. I'm the one who used to think this was a trap, and maybe I was wrong, but I don't regret it. I think this is a trap, and I hope the price will continue to fall again, simply because I want to accumulate bitcoin at a low price rather than a high price. But if my judgment is wrong, I have not lost anything because I have started accumulating since the luna crash. I only regret that bitcoin has gone up in price too soon, so my plan to own more cheap bitcoins has ended.

it's true that the cycle that you say is every 4 years or often also known as the halving period, you can be sure it will happen again. thus ensuring that period will fall on May 1, 2024 for the upcoming halving period.
so there are no signs that lead and there is information that can provide news that states that this year there will be changes towards recovery.
it is precisely the time now, where to continue to buy and save more savings so that when changes occur, it will provide significant benefits.
Is there actually going to be a surprise that will happen? we will wait for it

Let's hope that those who have just dared to make the decision to invest in bitcoin now will not panic if there is a continuous correction from bitcoin. And hopefully, they can still hold their bitcoins calmly and have no worries about a correction because bitcoin's journey to get to the last ATH is still long and surely, there will still be many corrections in the market. And hopefully the price can still increase slowly every month so we don't have to wait long to see the price reach the last ATH and after that, the bitcoin price makes a new ATH.

If we pay attention to the trends that have occurred since 2012, you will see a unique pattern that repeats itself every 4 years, if we can take advantage of the moment correctly, we can get big profits, and if we pay attention to what happened at the beginning of this year, this is a sign that the recovery happen, I believe bitcoin price will reach $40k before Q2 so the best thing right now is to keep buying.

The current market condition is still not in a bullish situation, but now is the recovery period which is still a good opportunity to keep buying Bitcoin before we really see bullish in the market. Everyone has their own judgment in seeing the current market conditions and I also can't convince you to think positively about what's going on in the market. Because those who think this market condition is a trap, maybe one day they too will regret it when what they think is wrong.

to be honest, no one can know such duration. so yeah, if you do believe that it will go up anytime soon, as we've been in the low price level long enough, then, it is your prerogative to collect some for your portfolio.
it is your own decision how you will react on this market, as it is your own funds, you need to think of what is best for your portfolio.

This is the start that the market will recover after all those issues in 2022, I think we already had enough of bear market and now, Bitcoin is taking over the market again and will about to boom.

This is not a trap, this is the real trend now and if you can’t see a good reason to buy, just search the price of Bitcoin on last halving, usually the pump happens a year before the halving and that time is right now so grab some now and stay positive for the whole yea.

I still think that its just "about time" situation. Like we have been low for so long and in the bear market for over a year now, so people basically decided any small increase would be the start of the bull run, only because "its about time", like they are tired of waiting for it to go up, so they are making it go up. I don't know if that's the case or not, but that does feel like a reason for people to buy. How long could it stay low? How long do you think it could be under 25k for example? I do not think that it can stay under 25k for years, it has to be either anytime soon, or it could be in a matter of months at most, not a year. Which is why people are buying.

The current situation is the result of a massive growth of investors during the price drop, it looks like those who never take their opportunity when the price is below $20k are now here to take the risk. Many people only have the courage to invest in Bitcoin when they see the price is increasing and this is what happens now. As long as these new investors will never dump their Bitcoin until we reach back to its peak again or just to say at least $40k, it is possible that in the next couple of month we never experience market correction but a continuous pump.

Don't trust the public their reserves are still if we keep assets on the exchange it's not our money because they fully recognize it, so it's better to avoid knowing enough with the FTX collapse that once the money is gone it will never come back again.
Use a non-custodial remote wallet recommendation.
In theory investor interest in bitcoin has been around for a long time whereas for altcoins to create hype because they just come there to wait for it so I've always avoided any alternative coins because there's just no interest.

The market is currently still recovering and accumulating again, which is what many people did when the price was still lower. Those who can take advantage of this opportunity can be said to be very lucky because the price is still low and they can continue to hold their bitcoins until the price rises high. But I'm not sure that the $25k price will be reached soon, especially since we are already at the end of January. But there is a possibility that in the next month, the price can go up higher but we don't know how high the price can go up and if it does go up high, will there be a deep correction that might occur?

We have sustained it already since you last post and we even had to breach $23k already, so yeah, is not bear trap and we don't know how long will this because it seems to be a sustainable run to $25k at least, or that's where I'm seeing this bull run that we are witnessing.

Although it's crazy, we just started this year and then from $16k-$23k, that is a huge increased and we don't know where the buyer is coming from. I'm just hinting that those who went out and sold at $16k is trying to get back at the market again.

I think you are right. It looks like the positive trend in the early 2023 is natural, it is likely not a fake or a trap. In fact, the price of Bitcoin and most altcoins still continue to increase until now, no big dump so far. Even, Bitcoin price can survive above $23k and seems to try achieving $25k as soon as possible. If it is a trap, after the big pump in early January, we already see some dumps now. But until now, crypto trend looks good and no significant bad news. So, the price of crypto coins to stay positive increasing more. However, it is true that the bearish season isn't over yet, it probably ends in the next year.

Investors' confidence in the exchanges is returning thanks to a public report on their reserves.And users start their media on the exchange again.While the biggest interest is in bitcoin, alternative coins have not been much in demand lately.The main thing is to keep the level above 23k and then we can expect further growth.

Yah, Bitcoin has always had momentum and strength in the market but there is always time for a recovery and consolidation. A lot of pain to the market has taken place, which is a hard fact to accept. I believe the power and confidence of the decentralized exchange is coming very close after the fall of FTX. Form a belief and optimism back only bitcoin generates. I think the market will move sideways for a few days before there is a better recovery movement.

I believe that the difficult situation has passed, after the FTX case ended with investors crying, now is the time to be more vigilant and choose exchanges, it's better to use exchanges for instant transactions, don't store large amounts of assets because bad things can happen, at least there isn't negative sentiment yet which makes the market panic so naturally bitcoin will continue to grow positively in 2023.

I am ready to admit I was wrong, I thought a decrease in the price was imminent as the recovery we were experimenting was too fast for my tastes, but even if there was a small decrease a day ago it was nothing like what I expected it could happen.

At this stage I ask myself how high the price will go before we see a stronger pullback? Because even if the growth is welcome it is difficult for me to believe we could make such fast transition between a bear market and a bullish one.

I also thought that, maybe it really was time for bitcoin to start increasing and finally to this point bitcoin has been above $20k.
This $22k figure is very good because bitcoin can already start to recover even though it will still be difficult to reach a bullish season and we don't know when.
But this gives us hope, especially new people who don't know about the bitcoin cycle or are confused about the price that hasn't started to rise high again.
And bitcoin is currently trying to come back on the defensive after a correction came into the market again.

Yeah, I think everyone is very positive with the movement this January, we have touch $23k already. So that is big jump from our lowest low of $15,500. But it seems that $23k is a big barrier that we have to break at this point.

But in any case, even if we remain at $22k, still very good price as the bear market might be over for now.

Let's just remain optimistic for 2023, and hope no events this year like the FTX or Terra Luna will happen so that the market will have a smooth ride to $30k and higher price.

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

I agree that we shouldn't make calculations from every movement, is this something that gives us a message on which direction it goes? Maybe, it could be or maybe it isn't and we still do not know. We shouldn't try to read the market just from a few things, it will cause us to lose a lot of money if we try to trade based on every single movement.

It is better to just let it be for a while and we could just calculate it later on when it shows itself a little bit more. If it reaches to 23k and then 25k, then it is obviously a bull run, and it was a bull run since 17k, if it goes down to 18k again then it wasn2t. We just need to give it some more time.

We have been at $20k for a few days now or weeks so I think this wasn't a bull trap anymore. If it's a bull trap then we already go back to $17k or even drop lower than that long time ago. It seems that the history repeats itself again. $20k should be our new support and then later on we will rise up to $24k and will do an attempt to hit $25k.

If it's a success then we should rise continuously. Corrections can happen as it was part of how this marker works but I think it's different from a bull trap right? Because why their terms are not the same then. I too believe that we won't past the ATH this year but I am positive that we will surpass the $30k level.

Historically, bull run has steady phase before the next halving and I'm not being optimistic until we've break some major resistance above $21k. We might see sideways market from here on out, I'm just too optimistic 2024 would feel different so I'm still in DCA mode. For me, I'm just being simple here and breaking resistance/support is my green flag on where the market is heading.

Right, and we have seen a quick dump when it went from $21,500-$20,800 if I'm not mistaken. And yes 45 days? Lol, that's not a good indication for a bull trap or bull run because of the market's volatility, a good 2 weeks is already enough to determined with direction we are going to take.

So far the price is again above $21k which means the bear is back on the market and taking over again after a dump.

And so we might see a continues rally again till the end of the month and see where we are.

Are you serious about your statement and all the data you provided especially the 45 days test to determine if this is not a bull trap or not? Do you realize that the current price fluctuation only occurred less than 2 weeks while the price is now on sideways in a low time frame? It will just take a few days after the 2nd weekly candle to determine whether this movement is a bull trap or not. Try to view the chart in a longer time frame before you make such a comment about the current condition of Bitcoin price. There's a high chance for a bull trap instead of a continuous rally if the weekly candle closes below 21k. This kind of relief rally always follow by quick dump on following weeks if my assumption is correct with this price behavior.

Yes, and as far as I can understand in a bull trap, the increased will not last this long. But in our case, since the start of January, we are in a continues spike so just maybe we are not in a bull trap anymore. Maybe in the beginning, we have doubts that this could just be a trap set up by the bears.

45 days though is long enough to realized if we are in a bull trap or not, just saying.

Let's see how long can we sustained this run though, it's $21,500, now we are back into the $21'ish range again.

I am following markets closely since this big jump happened. I feel like its too good to be bull trap. In bull traps demand would be inconsistent and unbalanced, making price fluctate a lot. But with this move, it felt like some people literally filled their wallets to get ready for greater bull run in next halving period. I think we will all realize if this was trap or not in next 45 days. I would bet my money on it being real start of bull run honestly. I can't say further increases will happen that soon as well, demand can be limited for such short time window. But people would be less interested in selling/shorting.

The price did not head away from the bottom, and therefore there is no indication of future rises, but the most important thing is more confirming signs about the bottom of this cycle, which may remain $15,000 for a long time, and therefore it is unlikely in the future that Bitcoin will be at a price lower than these prices.

So, all that the recent rise tells us about is the strength of the bottom, so that it will not be broken except by an exceptional event, and it will not tell us anything about the top.

Everyone will try to analyze and not just follow other people's advice because even if that person is an expert, we must still try to find where he can get such an analysis. Of course, it will be useful for other people who want to learn to analyze because they can know how to analyze properly and correctly. But I wouldn't be surprised if the current price hike could turn into a bull trap, as I've seen before. Instead of being surprised, I will place a buy order at the bottom if the price ever goes down again. But the bitcoin price has stayed at the $20k-$21k level. And bitcoin will surely increase slowly.

you cannot force anyone here to follow your prediction as it is clearly said , Prediction right? meaning there is no accuracy in there and you are just lucky to bring good sometimes.
actually I have been following you at some point specially when you are posting about God and Gambling but I find no credential on those so i believe that no one trusted you here and yes I know that you are also trying to gain but are you truly earning from your predictions?

I stopped assuming anything to come instead I only rely on what is market moving . means that once my radius of price already attain? then i will either sell or buy and that is what I learned from this market over the years , never to become greedy and never to become stupid expecting too much and ending being a loser , I already missed many things and now i will find my prize in my investing strategy .

My eyes are on what is going to happen in at least half a decade from now, the ups and downs of today don't matter much to me. Normally we all enjoy it more when the price goes up and breaks barriers, but bitcoin is a unique invention that is going to be more and more appreciated. Getting carried away by the short-term noise can lead you to do foolish things, such as selling when the price goes down for fear that it will go down further.

I think we will close 2023 in positive territory, but whether we go up or down in the coming weeks or months is of little importance to me.

I don't know where the price will be in 10 days time but I know that in 10 years time it will be up, much higher.

Nobody can say with 100% surety that, current relief rally will sustain, or it is short lived But, according to many market analysts there are many reasons behind this rally which include, declining trend in inflation, weakening dollar index and technical rebound. I am afraid if FOMC (meeting scheduled on 31st January) announces interest rate increase again (50 basis points or more), market may fall again below 20K or even lower.

This is definitely not the start of a bull market, the best we could expect is for this to be the end of the bear market, but make no mistake besides a bullish or a bearish trend markets also remain in a ranging state for very long periods of time in which not much happens.

Now this could also be a bull trap but so far it seems the price is holding out and we may expect this balance to remain this way, now the balance could be broken by a negative or a positive news but if I were to guess it would seem to me a decrease in the price is more likely during the next days.

It is definitely too early. $19k and then $15k in the next few months. As a trader and have been in the crypto world for many years, I can say that all of the signs are not convincing enough for a bullish. Think about it: Many months of a downtrend and suddenly bitcoin increase by 30% and people start to FOMO. Too good to be true. With the current hype of AI, I doubt that the cycle will happen this soon.

My plan is to way for bitcoin to go below $15k and I will buy some bitcoin and Solana. I believe in Solana, the technology seems promising and the community of developers seems to grow over years.

I don't think that the bear market is gone,that is why there is a drop in the price,if bitcoin hits the bull ATH no manipulation will drop the price because everyone will be eager to invest. The price pump was the recover of FTX $5B crypto assets which was somewhere.

US bad news led to little dump in price,I can't say if bitcoin will go below 17k as it is dropping gradually. The whales might have also planned all these,nobody knows what will happen next. Nobody knows the lowest price it will drop to in the bearish days.

It dropped 3% - that wasn't a hard drop after it rose 20%. A 3% correction after something like that is completely natural. Also the news was manipulated FUD because a US law enforcement going after some Russian money launderer should be a joke, but the way the media and youtubers portrayed it, making a big deal out of the situation, caused people to panic. This only shows how nervous people are after over 15 months of bear market.

I agree. Bitcoin returned to its fair price that we held before the FTX drama.

I only believe that the price correction in the last 24 hours is reasonable. Of course that is normal as this is part of the market recovery process after dropping to a low of $15.5K last year. Even though at the moment the bitcoin price has dipped below $21K, then I believe it is a good start to expect more increase. $20K is expected to be strong over January as support, and I think $25K is the next upside target for bitcoin in a month.

I believed that it is a beginning of a bull season, but looking at the situation right now, I have to say that there is a possibility it could be a trap as well. The reason why I am saying is that we are talking about a stagnant move right now. I mean normally if it was a bull run, we had 2 clear increases, first it went from 17 to 19, and then moved from there to 21. That is why it looked like it was a bull run, and I believed it would be like that, 23 and then 25 and so forth.

This is why it made sense for it to go further. However, now that we look at it, after it peaked at around 21k it started to look lower and it is not moving any higher which gives the feeling of a trap to be fair.

Since the increase in the last week bitcoin has not decreased very drastically it is still trying to survive at the price level of $ 20,700 but I don't know if this is really a bull-trap or will continue to try at the same level but in terms of graphics bitcoin is still quite strong in $20,000 threshold.
Well I believe this correction will definitely happen but with the movement in 2023 it won't go more than ATH before we still haven't passed the halving in 2024 so maybe it will stay at the $20k or $30k level.

It is difficult to predict with certainty what the price of Bitcoin will do in the short to medium term because crypto market is highly volatile, halving is generally considered a bullish event because decrease in Bitcoin reward leads to less supply of new Bicoins in the market.
However, the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $10,000 will depend on, rate of inflation, monetary policy of FED, state of world economy and introduction of new regulations by SEC to prevent FTX like disaster.

I think if Bitcoin stays above 19,500, then it is likely to make further gains in coming months, and won't fall below 10,000. DYOR

Is there any chance BTC Bitcoin dump under $10k before halving???

No need to be surprised. It actually makes sense only that you were probably not following the prediction I made after late last year dump. You can find it here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5420066
Then when the time was right early this month, I signal here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.61552353
I expected everyone to believe and follow the signal but not everyone was interested. When things started moving against people's expectations they were shocked or surprised.

If You have been following my prediction(which are unconventional) , you will understand that my yesterday post/view wasn't very positive. And the market responded accordingly.  The market actually reacts to people's emotions. If you are more influential you will have more effect on the price.
Note that being influential is not equal to your forum ranks or number of merit you have. Even a very honest newbie with zero merit who understands Bitcoin properly and hold strongly to its principles can have strong effect on the price when he says something concerning Bitcoin/crypto.

I predict that the price will continue to move up until what is predicted in the first link above is fulfilled, and then Bitcoin temporarily won't be supported emotionally. Do not doubt this. You may verify before you believe.

I think it is a start of the journey towards stabilization of crypto market, but this journey will not be smooth, and we will see many pumps and dumps during the current year. The reason behind this small recovery is, declining trend in inflation, falling crude oil prices and above all technical rebound because market was heavily oversold. We can't say anything with 100% certainty, but as interest rates are likely to stabilize in second quarter of current year, which can lead to further recovery & market may enter in bull cycle in the last quarter of current year. DYOR

There's no real reason why Bitcoin is up these days, I think it's just a short-term bull run in crypto winter, I didn't think the bull season would come so soon, IMO. It is not necessarily a trap, as this gain is not enough to make people invest more or will believe that this is a sign of the bulls.
From what I have observed, the price of bitcoin is rising, but people appear to be very cautious with this bull run. We need more signals to be able to confirm if it is bullish or just a trap.

It looks like the uptrend is not going to continue because if we look at the market movement today the bitcoin price has dropped back below $21k after a few days of rising in a row but if bitcoin can hold the $20k area firmly at this stage then there is a chance that the bitcoin price could crawl going back to $21k might even pass that price but to get there i think bitcoin is going to struggle because we're not in a bull market yet.

Let it go if it is a bull trap because we are also used to it. And if it is a bull trap and sends the price crashing again, we get another good opportunity to buy bitcoin at low prices. Right now, the bitcoin price is back at $20k and we can wait a bit to see what happens next. Will it drop back down to the $19k level or will the bitcoin price be reversed? You better prepare yourself for whatever will happen later.

But if the bitcoin price increases again after experiencing this correction, it means that bitcoin is again gaining support to increase its price and the price may get a pump to a higher price.

Then investors should continue putting more pressure on the whales, so they will burn their holdings to manipulate the price downside, while smaller investors grab their coins and hold. It would be great to break the whales' wall, what could be achieved by increasing optimism among potential investors, especially new adopters. I don't know if it's possible to do this right now, because there are lots of bad news about crypto market still in the air, but a movement of this kind is trying to rise up for this entire week. I have no doubts about it. What is missing at this moment is a strategy to potentialize this sentiment.

Currently, when we reached $21,500, the market suddenly goes down, and most probably this could be the reason,Owner of Bitzlato - Charged with Unlicensed Money Transmitting by US DoJ.

Probably others might not agree if this negative news affect the market today or it just a bull trap.

In any case, we are above the big barrier of $20k, and it seems that the support along the line might be strong for the now.

There is no good news specifically for Bitcoin at this time, as well as recent bad news that also does not exist for Bitcoin so that Bitcoin is still able to maintain a price level that is much better than last year's decline. Even though currently the price of Bitcoin has also started to be under $ 21K again, I still think that the next increase can still occur in the near future for Bitcoin. Because in general there's been some good news coming out for the crypto space at the moment and it could definitely be a good leverage for Bitcoin right now.

Why do you say it's too early for the halving next year? I also don't think for ATH at the end of the year on Bitcoin, but it's not unreasonable that Bitcoin could be at a price level very close to ATH at the end of the year if the price increases outweigh the falls. Because the price resistance of Bitcoin this year will probably be so different from last year that I don't think Bitcoin will be at $19K or $17K anytime soon.

It has something to do with FTX recovery and that's why we've seen a pump.

Too early but can also be a factor on why we see many are starting to act as early as now and buying as much as they can before the halving occurs.

Even if the pump will drop to $17k or $16k then it is going to be another chance of buying again. So while everyone sees a lower price of bitcoin, everyone must decide to buy as early as we can before it shoots to the price that we'll consider "too expensive" as much as we hear from the feedback of those that haven't bought it yet.

More of a trap I guess. It is too early to assume a bullish season given that not all coins had an increase with the recent pump, opposite of what happens during an actual bull trend. So for now, it would be better to be careful of being caught by it. Investing would be a good idea and so is waiting for a more clear trend line. The actual increase, I believe, is more anticipated next year but that is not to exclude this year. The only point is to not hope that much just because the market was from a bad situation and it is just now wherein it is having signs of recovery. Would be a long way to go I guess before this market fully recover. But ofcourse if it would as this early, then that would be better.

it's just a natural movement of the market and it happened in 2022. It's just that someone assumed earlier this year that the magic started when the price increased surprisingly and people thought this would be a bullish start, but this is just a cycle.
indeed, if it happens that the bitcoin price reaches ATH at the end of this year, this is really unreasonable, while bitcoin's track record will start to increase and continue to rise in price after the halving every 4 years.
for the next price drop it will surely happen after a lot of bad news has come out about bitcoin and it will surely touch below $19k price.
but for me the bad news won't apply and it won't matter if the bullish time comes, but I don't know when.

I can't say anything with a 100% guarantee but I think it would be wise to observe the market for a while without making any big investments in excitement.
Because we have faced this situation many times during the bearish season, I think the market still has a big chance to back in 16k/17k  again or below it. Yes, it is true that according to many market analysis Bitcoin is likely to return to its bull-market in the halving of 2024. But I think until our Q1,Q2,Q3 of 2023 I don't think the market will give any such signal. But for its starting, I think we have to wait from the very end of 2023 to the end of the first q1 of 2024.

You mean that news about some surveillance program that gives law enforcement access to money transfer without court order? That doesn't seem to me like news that would affect bitcoin price that much. I think its more about small correction after bitcoin price going up 25% in the last 2 weeks that everyone expected.

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Regarding whether this is a start of bull season, I don't think that we are out of the woods yet, and its too early to tell anyway. If we keep these levels for some time then we can be more optimistic but I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

saturated/overbought?? where?

when the price moves down.. there are two ways
A. overbought(run out of buyers)
B. dumping(too many sellers)

A is noticeable if the "volume" decreases during a price dip
B is noticeable if the "volume" increases during a price dip

todays dip below $21k was a seller dumping session

however
if you are zoom is too close into a chart that you are seeing a movement of $21.4k to $20.9k as something you think is a "big movement"
then learn to chill a bit, relax, zoom out!..  and dont get so triggered by small events, its not good for your health

anything below a 10% price kick is just motions in the oceans. its not a time to shout 'Tsunami'

heck. lets just do a quick silly hourly chart explainer for those that get emotional over the small stuff

It seems like a bull trap isn't showing itself yet but with this price slowly dropping I think this is the start of it. Who knows? I can't tell if this is really the bull season but according to my memory in the past this price is common as traders do some trade so the price will move up and down a little but it won't break past at $25k or $26k IMO.

It's just too early to say that this is the start of bull season since we just started to break and past at that $17k for a week. We still have to observe it if it's really going to up and pump past that $21k now.

In my opinion, this is just a little market recovery it's a bit like a bull market, after the halving event then this will be the time of the real bull season, there will be 12 months of slow and steady growth and there will be a pullback soon but then we will see higher lows on each pullback and by next May in the halving event the price will be somewhere near the previous all-time high, then the halving event always changes sentiment leading to a proper bull market, Bitcoin should be 60-70k after the halving event. the recession is one thing but I believe it's not going to stop the bull market, especially if it starts mooning, which brings in a whole world of new buyers.

No one will tell you the truth. Also no matter what people, they will be right. It is a trap on bear season that pretends to be bull. Year in crypto taught me that Bitcoin moves on its own. It can do sudden pumps, it can go up when world economy is down. It can go down even if tomorrow mass adoptions is announced. It can show no changes if Joe Biden announce it become one and only currency for US.

now the price is dropping dramatically, yesterday it had reached a high of $ 21,400. The market is also getting saturated, already overbought, so it's time to go down and try to go down to the nearest support. gradually the price continues to fall and if it passes $20k it will continue towards $19k.
The movement at the beginning of the year was indeed quite significant, but the correction that will occur will also be deeper. The halving is still a long way off and this year may be a year that doesn't have too much movement.

there are people in the world if they were to mine bitcoin their costs to acquire bitcoin can go upto $90k this year
bitcoin has willing buyers at different prices.. thats not the problem

what is happening though is big institutional whale investors are "futures trading" making gamble bets the price i december would stay below $17k. the price in atleast the first few weeks of january stay below $21,5.. and they win their bets by simply use another stash of funds to arbitrage the spot markets to have a resistance wall to keep the price below such amounts they bet on

note the flat lines of december/january period, they are artificial flatlines caused by a resistance wall to artificially keep prices down

If you've been here on this market for a while now or been on years then you would really be having this feeling or thought in mind on which you would really be that suspicious on its movement but generally this is

just like an ordinary day wayback on where these movement percentages are really that possible on shorter time frame.It is really that we are getting shocked because we've been doing sideways movement
for so long and we haven't see Bitcoins price to behave on this way and thats why on the time that it do make out that recent movement then it do ends up on being significant.
Bull run or Bull trap? there's no one would able to guess it out.

I find it interesting that your post comes right after there was a 1000$ drop in the price. Half of that seems to be recovered, still...
What's going to happen next is hard to tell. Clearly after big pumps some cooldown (even slight drop) periods can easily follow. Even more, we're basically still in the price range of the bear market, hence it's not that clear it's over yet. On the other hand there are voices calling that 25k is at hand and the first cooldown will be only afterwards.
So, as I said: hard to tell.

Have you seen the new price? It dropped hard a few hours ago as a result of some bad news about US law enforcement. I believe the growth was natural and not manipulated. If it is manipulation, it will not last long. However, the current crash was caused by bad news. Although there was no good news, Bitcoin experienced significant movement at the start of the new year. But we are unlucky and begin dumping.

The Bitcoin price jumped from the ~$17k range to the ~$21k in the last 7 days. I'm not aware of any good news about Bitcoin, but the price seems moved so strongly, breaking its previous resistance.



It could be because the next year halving, but it seems too early. If the trend continues, Bitcoin price will break ATH later this year so it does not make sense IMO. Therefore, I don't think the pump can be sustained for too long and the price will soon drop to the ~$19k range and then the ~$17k range again soon. But who knows...

What do you think?