Topic: The story of Bold Funding (split thread) (Read 1187 times)

Sure, I totally agree.  I'm just trying to figure out what your thinking is here.

The idea that the Fed would consider freezing the accounts of China for any reason short of an overt act of war is laughable.  Such a thing would literally destroy the US economy and the currency.

Yeah, way ahead of you

Got a correct estimate of USD held by China?

And what difference does it make if they keep physical notes?  Is it that the Federal Reserve can just freeze their account in the event of funny business?

Seriously.  Without even going into the accuracy of the source, or how the wikipedia article author came up with those numbers, the amount of foreign currency reserves that it claims for China is expressed in US dollar values.  The Central Bank of China doesn't actually keep it's currency reserves in US Federal Reserve Notes.  Much of those reserves are Euros, and many other currencies besides, not limited to Brazil, Argentina and Australia; China's most important non-domestic commodities source nations.

Okay, I just did.  3.2T USD held by the People's Bank of China (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/html/2011s09.htm).
M2 is 9.3T USD (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/)

That's 34%.

Only thing I'm unsure about is whether 'Foreign exchange reserves' means actual USD held, or just USD equivalent, i.e. it holds other currencies as well, and measures their value in USD.

Edit: also not sure if M2 includes foreign exchange reserves.

Your not-so-fun facts need checking.

Heh, this is the only part of that post that I really disagreed with.  I figure a currency is only as good as the number of people using it, and the BTC exchange rate is roughly proportional to this number, since the overall supply is fixed.  (Ignoring for simplicity the predictable supply increase.)

The extent to which the early adopters are, on the aggregate, incompetent or have no interest in the health or success of Bitcoin is the extent that I think there is an early adopter problem.  So I think we do agree.

Oh, I'm not suggesting that more people weren't involved. Hell, I remember Bitcoin in its early days as well. I mined for precisely 12 hours on my desktop, back when that was doable, and the block chain was like 5 megs. I'm referring to the serious adherents, who mined away day and night from the beginning. I even remember getting free bitcoins from the bitcoin faucet many, many moons ago. Do I still have them? Nope. Most people who found it a temporary fascination back then moved on with their lives.

The serious parties though, they were few and far between in the beginning.

-Jon

Well, I wasn't taking part in it, but I do remember the buzz already from the start and I have a hard time imagining not more started using it (which also meant mining, back then).

http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open-source

Yes, yes it is. And that second miner? Yes. That's how it played out.

7200/day = 2628000/year

Is it likely Satoshi was the only miner for half a year? (Or one of two for a full year).

I'm not suggesting that they would do anything to upend Bitcoin. Far from it, in fact! I know that they have are aligned with the Bitcoin movement (they were the early adopters, after all). Still, yours is an opinion that is more in line with the general belief system of this forum, and the community, rather than the outside view.

I can also say this: I've personally met and shook hands with someone (they'll remain nameless) who has a VERY large % holding. The fundamental lack of understanding of market depth, and how COMMODITIES work, led to a disagreement on price. Oh, did I mention, they wanted to sell all of their coin? FYI, they refused an offer of $7 per Bitcoin when it was at $15.

So I can honestly say that I have witnessed, in Bitcoin denominated terms, the greed and short term thinking that is so pervasive right now. Had he sold his Bitcoins, by now there would almost certainly be an even larger Bitcoin user base, because the entity interested in his coins was, in fact, interested in getting it out to the masses. Instead, he took the advice of some apparently unhinged and uneducated individuals, and threw away his opportunity to liquidate and help the overall Bitcoin economy.

I fundamentally disagree with you. You may believe that early adopters have only the best intentions, but I have seen first hand that in fact, they do not.

Regards,
Jonathan

I agree with you that less concentrated ownership garners more confidence in the market, but I'm pretty doubtful that the early adopters will eventually crash the market with their bitcoins, as their interests seem to be pretty well aligned with the success of Bitcoin.  And this is the only risk I can see that they pose to other bitcoiners.

The problem of concentrated ownership seems to me to be one that will naturally work itself out gradually, as trading volume gets big enough that they can safely offload their bitcoins, and as they encounter the need to spend them, or as they die.

Fun fact: I've heard estimates that Satoshi has around 1.2M BTC.  By the end of next year, that puts him at 10% total ownership, about the same share of the total USD that the Japanese central bank owns.

Not so fun fact: The Chinese central bank owns nearly 30% of total USD.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_reserves#List_of_countries_by_foreign_exchange_reserves

Excellent post.

I mean the scammers and hype mongers, and no, I'm not suggesting sell sell sell. I really could care less about trying to move the market. That would make me just as bad as the hype mongers.

What I would like to see though, is for the people hoarding Bitcoin to get over themselves, and to sell/donate their bitcoins and get out of the way for the greater good. The professional opinions that I've heard all point out one glaring flaw in the current situation that causes massive fluctuations and market swings.

Do you know what that one glaring problem is? There are far too many early, mostly free coins that can be converted to dollars. Bitcoin absolutely needs to decentralize in ownership. If you purchase 2000 bitcoins, you should have some assurances that nobody already has the market cornered, ready to scalp you and every one else whenever the price point meets their luxury vacation needs.

Come out of the woodwork, old miners. Get an education in economics, and do your best to understand that your hoarding is part of the lack of trust and stability in the current system. You aren't going to be a millionaire with your 200,000 coins. It's just not going to happen.

Greed and ego. Ego and greed. It's sad and pathetic. All in all, the fraudsters and hoarders have given this experiment an incredibly bad name among real professionals.

So go ahead, hoard your cache of bitcoins until their value drops even more, and when it hits $3, and $2 and you start to sell off in a frenzy, worried that you'll no longer be able to buy that mercedes you've been eyeing, that will potentially be the beginning of the next wave of sustainable, trusted growth.

Until then, it's just not going to happen.

Being brought to mass market will result in a higher price point.  There's definitely a correlation between exchange rate and level of adoption.

I'm not defending the pump and dump that went on - I've always called it such, and it's always worried the hell out of me - but you have to admit that it garnered a ton of publicity.

And maybe it really is true that there's no such thing as bad publicity.  At least after the dust settles.

At the very least it'll sober the hell out of the market going forward.

Heh, was that a thinly-veiled suggestion to SELL SELL SELL?

Thanks, I gave some serious thought while writing that post, and I'm glad that I was able to get down on paper. It's a pretty good summary of how I feel at the moment.

I'm a greater good techno junkie with politically agnostic leanings. I'm on the fence about how much longer I'll have my or any of my friends or associates names associated with Bitcoin.

If there's not a housecleaning soon, it's going to be a number of years until any similar currency system has the support needed to succeed.

I want Bruce and others of his kind to formally remove themselves as the public face of Bitcoin. It cannot end well for them if they continue on this path. If they don't go away, the very thing that they purport to support will disappear, and they have a very narrow window of time to follow through, apologize for their actions, and disappear.

It's going to take the community as a whole to push them out, ignore them and cast them out. This is a cancer, and the actions of a very few will likely decide the outcome. To all of you who are aware of the truth behind my words, please take action quickly.

Regards,
Jonathan

I, personally, defy classification. It'd be really hard for me to even just try to list a couple or a few groups I think I fit in.

The one thing that is easy to say is I'm in this for the long go of it, not just some quick profit scheme. I want Bitcoin or at least its offspring to take hold in at least some meaningful way, not just to be a success story in the memoirs of some investor.

Pretty good post.  I'm curious about how you (and a handful of others here) would classify yourselfs?

I'd classify myself as mainly some parts:

 - 'greater good techie'
 - 'paranoid libertarian (who's actually more of a socialist)'
 - 'in want of (another) high-risk speculative play' since I have been kind of on a roll.

Bitcoin is a total wet-dream for me.

Bitcoin has become a social psychologists wet dream. There are many walks of life who have all come together to support Bitcoin for different reasons.

This community as a whole can be seen as a granfalloon, full of varying degrees of envy, ego, hopes and dreams, and a multitude of competing ideologies. There are veteran miners who hold up to 20% of the entire cache of Bitcoins in aggregate. There are non-technical anarco capitalists, 13-17 year old anti social gamers, paranoid schizophrenic 'libertarians' (I've unfortunately met a few in real life..), highly competent 'greater good' technologists, and everything in between.

What they all seem to share in common is an underlying hope and desire that there exists a larger swath of their respective demographic that they can introduce to Bitcoin, under many different guises. There's the people promoting the liberation of currency, freedom from government oppression (pfff..), private property rights, technical advancement, gambling, investment opportunity, fun hobby, and self promotion.

Last but not least, there's also the scammers and outright fraudsters who still readily take advantage of the trust of others in the community for their own personal gain.

What's quickly becoming apparent is that many of the people in these groups have taken to outright ignoring reality, even as it smacks them in the face.

I'm sorry if you purchased 400 bitcoins at $30. It can be devastating to lose real money in speculative investments. I'm sorry if you mined 200,000 bitcoins in the early days, shoulder to shoulder with Satoshi. Yes, you were a paper millionaire for a few minutes. You probably should have sold all of your coins for $7.50 a month ago to that investor that you balked at. I'm sorry that you have no real understanding of how economics work. I'm sorry that you are all so invested financially, mentally and emotionally, in the clusterfuck that is Bitcoin that you cannot see the forest for the trees.

So what we have now is a rift, where there are individuals and groups that are driven by their own greed that will 'sweep it under the rug' and excuse away the misdeeds of others, simply because they want the gravy train to continue.

Instead of looking out for the greater good, many of you have ignored the warning signs that were right there for you to see. Clouded by your own judgement, you've made poor decisions and used twisted rationale to continue being an unwitting pawn in people like Bruce Wagners pump and dump schemes.

Make no mistake, there are a small handful of people who participated in pushing the price of Bitcoin ever higher. Quite a few of those individuals were doing it for what they thought was the greater good, and for the press coverage that it would receive, rather than to realize any profits. I personally know of someone who went through 20,000 Bitcoins over the course of 2 months just to prop the market up whenever it was falling.

Many of those individuals ended up with significant losses trying to 'keep Bitcoin alive' during the climb from $0.20 up through $3 earlier this year. What they didn't realize was that people like Bruce Wagner are pied pipers, evangelists who are ultimately responsible for a group think mentality that pushed Bitcoin from $0.20 up through the $30 mark. This was a HORRIBLE thing for Bitcoin. Treating Bitcoin as a dollar in / dollar out speculative investment marked the beginning of the end of this chapter in crypto currencies. It was a complete pump and dump scenario, right out of the textbook.

The next step that must happen is for the community to push out the fraudsters, scammers, pump and dumpers, bullshit artists and over leveraged investors. They all need to go away now. Bitcoin absolutely needs to get back to it's roots, and there's little doubt in my mind that the Bruce Wagners of the world will find other ideologies to corrupt for their own gains, but as far at Bitcoin / crypto currencies go, they are no longer welcome at the table. Bitcoin isn't a speculative investment any more than Gold is. Bitcoin is also not currency in the traditional sense, and doesn't require a $15-$20 price point for it to be brought to the mass market. No, Bitcoin would survive and prosper even if it never got above par value with the USD.

So, to all of you selfish and greedy folks out there who have been part of this summer of retardation, please go away and find the next HYIP or scam, and stop being such ridiculous assholes, willing to ignore such persistent and obvious warning signs of fraud.

Please, PLEASE: Stay the fuck away from Bitcoin

Regards,
Jonathan