Topic: the value-premium spot market speculates in will change after ETF approval (Read 28 times)

 many who follow my posts know that my opinion of the economic limits of market speculation are based on the whole planet value vs premium of mining costs.. whereby the lowest cost on planet fixes a support that no one wants to sell below because no one can acquire for less.. and sellers wont sell for a loss and shorters know they cant acquire for less. so sell orders run out below the limit..

and if everyone on the planet can mine for less then a premium then no one wants to buy, and instead people want to sell for profit causing a resistance.. basically no buyers lots of sellers, price falls again

for me this has been proven by calculating min and max mining costs over time and then looking at the market speculation price and seeing the price ALWAYS sat inbetween the value premium limits.
there was reasons it maxed out at 20k in 2017, 70k in 2021 and bottomed out at $17k in 2022 (testing the premium premium value respectively)

but here is the thing..
when a ETF is approved and a 'sponsor'(trust manager) wants to recruit new broker/agents to buy up baskets of bitcoin to use as custodianised collateral to create shares in the sponsors platform.. these ETF agent/brokers will buy and change the markets natural premium economics if they need to rush to purchase bitcoin.. or as the fiat guys would say "raise the roof" of whats deemed 'premium'/resistance of the world market of bitcoin

i was harshly denying the possibility of bitcoin raising the roof to "$1m/btc soon" due to the natural premium limits where well embedded bitcoiners would switch from buying to mining-selling once nearing the natural economic premium.. but these fiat brokers wanting to get shares priced in fiat but pegged to btc.. will break the natural paradigm(emphasis should there be a much needed ulk purchase at premium)

but i still cant see a $1m in 2024. but more than $150k premium is possible.. just how much more then $150k premium roof raise is a question for speculation board. .. its upto the market of possible ETF agents buying baskets.. and also naturally pushed up higher over the next year due to mining cost and halving.. pushing the natural premium roof higher

so a safe assumption is that if hashrate does not tank. the post halving will see a natural premium roof of $300k which could be raised higher if there are many basket purchases by fiat guys not understanding the bitcoin ecosystem of value-premium and just extreme FOMO'ing it

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now with that said
if greyscale gets approved they already have many baskets(630k btc locked) and wont want to recruit extra agents to add more shares to then sell on their platform. as thats competing agaisnt the shares grayscale will be offering themselves at first, they wont want to saturate the share market, so they wont be pushing for extra baskets for months..
however if ark(share21) which only has just 150btc yep just 150. they will definitely be recruiting agents to buy baskets of btc to lock up straight away
as for the rest inbetween. well thats another speculative board type of conversation