Topic: There is deflation in countries where Russians have been fleeing (Read 195 times)

It looks like it's worth arguing who really has a childish opinion

You tear out one part from the real history of the USSR / RF, and try to "reduce" it. I can talk long enough and talk about a lot, but this form clearly suggests a different format. I'll just say a couple of FACTS. At the same time, facts that concern not only Ukraine, because The communist / Kremlin regime is an evil on a really planetary scale,
so. I will take the 20th century as a starting point. Although believe me - and before that there is something to talk about.
It was the USSR that was the second hand that unleashed the Second World War. Together with Nazi Germany, the Stalinist USSR began to destroy Europe.

1920-1950. Repressions of citizens of the USSR. Repression. Torture. Murder. Deportations of entire peoples. Documents were deliberately destroyed to cover up the crimes of the regime. According to various estimates, more than 5,000,000 million people were destroyed, More than 6,000,000 million were simply maimed both physically and morally ...
1933 - Deliberately staged Holodomor - the genocide of the Ukrainian people. I will add that similar "steps" were taken against other peoples of the USSR, but the victims in Ukraine were the greatest. Destroyed (shootings, starving to death) about 7,000,000 ethnic Ukrainians. INTENTIONALLY!
1939 - an attack from the east on Poland, which was defending itself from Nazi Germany, on the western front. Mass destruction of the meir population. The cynical shooting of captured Polish soldiers and officers, the destruction of the intelligentsia, and those dissatisfied with the invasion of the USSR.
1939-1940 - Attack on Finland. Annexation of approximately 10% of the territories. Murder of civilians.
1941-1945 - meat grinder with his recent friend and partner. Tens of millions of citizens of the USSR died. The main reason is the idiotic management of the army. "Victory victories" at the cost of millions of victims, which were the soldiers of the Red Army, who were thrown almost unarmed, wave after wave, against the German troops. Thoughtlessly, they threw meat on their citizens.
1979-1989 - War in Afghanistan. More than 2,000,000 CIVILIANS destroyed by sadistic methods.
1992 - Armed conflict in Moldova. Annexation and construction of a puppet pseudo-state of the PMR.
1992-1997 The so-called "Civil War in Tajikistan". Provoked and supported by the Kremlin.
1992-1993 War in the territory of the sovereign state of Georgia. Annexation and creation of a pseudo state of Abkhazia
1994-1996 The first Chechen war Chechnya, Russia destroyed the Chechen people, because of their LEGAL decision to secede from the Russian Federation.
1999 Dagestan war. Kremlin-instigated massacre in Dagestan.
1999-2009 Second Chechen War Chechnya. Global destruction of the civilian population of Ichkeria. More than 300,000 inhabitants of the republic were killed.
2008 Another provocation and attack on Georgia. Annexation of territories and the construction of pseudo-states South Ossetia.
Victory
2009-2017 destruction of people dissatisfied with the Kremlin authorities. In the republics of the North Caucasus
2014 Application of Crimea. Then the annexation and the proclamation of pseudo-states of the PDR / LPR. Total destruction of Ukrainian cities and civilians.
2022 is the beginning of a new wave of offensive, with the use of medium-range missiles against PEACEFUL cities and civilians. total destruction of Ukrainian cities, villages... Tens of thousands of civilians were destroyed, in an extremely sadistic way. Mass torture, violence, looting....

Bottom line: the USSR / RF destroyed tens of millions of people. Hundreds of millions were made to suffer ... Both their own citizens and in other countries ...

Is this childish thinking?

PS About the "Western-sponsored coup" - are you telling me a direct participant? )))) I have to upset you - propaganda has destroyed your brain irreversibly!
By the way, the events of 2013/2014 are called "Revolution of Dignity". We fought for our freedom, rights, dignity. Although these words are not familiar to you or they scare you

Do you have anything new in your training manual except about Iraq and the "Western-sponsored coup"?

That's childlike thinking. There are no good guys in a game of geopolitics. The damage caused by "the West" i.e. in the Middle East alone is far greater than what Russia did to Ukraine so far. We don't have much of a moral high ground here if you consider e.g. a number of civilians killed in the invasion of Iraq (under a completely made-up pretext), sponsoring of ISIS and branches Al-Qaida in an attempt to destabilize Syria, igniting the "spontaneous" Arab Spring, etc.
Even in terms of the situation in Ukraine, US knew very well that Russia will have to respond to the 2013 west-sponsored coup as they couldn't afford to lose Crimea, as it's of strategic importance to them.

We're all just worthless pawns to them.

Everyone has long known absolute statistics:
1. Territories where Russia and the Russian world come - there are destruction and death, grief, degradation, inflation, low living standards.
2. Territories from which Russia and the Russian world are LEAVING - development, peace, tranquility, a higher standard of living ...

On the one hand, millions of people are now "heroically" fleeing Russia, mostly men of highly productive age with a good income. They do not want to become "cannon fodder" and get into the statistics of the second and subsequent hundreds of thousands of Russian terrorists killed in Ukraine... The instinct of self-preservation works. And yes, that's right - they bring a lot of money. But there are nuances...
1. Money tends to run out.
2. It is not a fact that the Russians will continue to earn money in the new location or find a well-paid job. In addition, one of the features of the "Russian world", the bearer of which they remain, is a complete lack of perception of the language and traditions where they came to visit. 99% of Russians will not learn Kazakh, Uzbek or Georgian! NEVER !
3. After the end of the money, and the accumulation of anger that in Georgia it is necessary to speak Georgian, and in Kazakhstan in Kazakh, and in Russian it is impossible to even be a janitor, they will begin to recall the "Russian greatness", "it was Russia that invented your country", "this We fed you and built everything for you."
Believe me - you have Russians, this is a "Trojan horse".
And write it down: already on May 9, according to the old tradition, idiotic songs will be sung on your streets under the red banner of the USSR, promising "we can repeat" (a hint at destroying Europe as in 1939-1945) ... And then the opening of territorial claims will begin - they say this is "the lands of Russia", "a referendum is needed", and then what began in our country in the east of Ukraine will begin. I warned you. Your right to choose the solution!

It's not that simple. After Feb 2022, there are multiple sanctions and restrictions also on Russian individuals. If you're Russian and don't have any foreign citizenship, you might struggle to even get a tourist visa to any of the western countries, not to mention moving there permanently.
According to visaguide Russian passport holders are no longer allowed to even enter Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
And if you happen to somehow get allowed to stay in any of the developed countries, transferring your wealth from Russia to the west can pose a whole lot of problems.

But with enough money, you can still live a pretty luxurious life even in countries considered to be poor. In fact, it may even be more enjoyable.

Rich and smart Russians are unlikely to choose neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia and even Georgia to flee the war. They will go further, where there will be no influence of the Russian government at all and where the standard of living will be much higher. Those who do not have the opportunity to flee further flee to neighboring states. It seems to me that such refugees from Russia are more likely to create more problems for these countries than good.

Of particular note is the political side of this Russian resettlement. Russia is attacking neighboring states, including now Ukraine, under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking population. The Kremlin has already threatened Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Georgia with war even recently. Therefore, it is better for these states to get rid of everything connected with Russia. They will be more wholesome.

Can't say that as an immigrant, though in the same sense. Immigrants generally do not have the effect of increasing the economy in a region. Because they make the move without being based on sufficient provisions.
We can interpret it more as a tourist even though in a longer period of time. As you explained, most of the people coming out of Russia are rich. This can improve the economy of a region. With an increase in the number of tourists, of course, the price of goods will increase.

There are no official figures on the number of Russian immigrants in West Asian countries so that we can know the extent of the impact that has had on the economies of those countries. A country like Armenia is very small, and if there is any massive exodus of people to it, it is certain that its economy will flourish, since it has been growing rapidly for years. Unfortunately, the Russians displaced from Russia to those countries are not rich because most of them have ethnic relatives in those countries.
If the currency is stable and does not complain of inflation, the rise in prices is explained by the increase in demand, since the number of consumers has increased.

You could always try translating a search phrase (i.e. "food prices") to say Georgian, google it, filter by 'news' click on a few recent articles and translate them to English, this should give you at least a gist of what's going on there. I've done it but haven't come across anything interesting, so I guess, as they say: "no news is good news". Maybe there simply aren't any drastic price increases.

If you're truly interested in first-hand info, they have some local threads in "Other languages/locations" section. There's no activity there, but if you ask, maybe someone will reply:
Georgian:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=679928.420
Armenian: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/armenian-1972798

Definitely the rent prices are increasing in both countries but I want to know what's happening around the food prices. It's hard to find information about these countries because they have small population and their own language that's absolutely different from Germanic and Romance languages and instead of Latin letters they use their own one.
Also, another problem is that when I type Georgia, I get a mixture of results, some of them are about actual country and some of them are about a state Georgia, that's located in the Southeastern region of the United States.

I'm researching reliable local Georgian and Armenian news websites that post about economics in English language.

I have a slightly different information... According to the sources of information that I use, the majority of Russians who left for Kazakhstan are ethnic Russians (Slavs). 

People who left for Kazakhstan, Georgia, Turkey and other countries in September 2022 are mostly young, energetic, mobile, educated and non-aggressive people.  Such people will benefit any country they move to. 

Many Russians have now moved to Asian countries (Goa, Bali).  Many people really want to move there, but are busy caring for their elderly parents. 

For Russia, the current events are a huge catastrophe - in fact, the old aggressive idiots are destroying the Russian youth (the future of the country).

One of the countries that Russians prefer to live is the Republic of Turkey. The exact opposite of the statistics you wrote is happening in Turkey. Real estate prices increased and it became impossible to own a house after the Russians came to Turkey.

Rich Russians live in Antalya and Istanbul. The constant increase in house prices leads to an increase in inflation. Especially in the regions where Russians live there are incredible increases in food prices. While Turkey is struggling with high inflation, lowering interest rates and continuous irregular migration increase inflation even more.

That's not what I have heard. Most of the migrants to Russia doesn't hold Russian citizenship and therefore they are not covered by the draft and mobilization. Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are now facing an influx of mostly richer ethnic Russian immigrants from Russia. Anyway, most of the cities in these countries are dominated by ethnic Russians. Almaty used to be a Russian majority city, and even now they comprise around one-third of the population. Astana is still majority Russian.

OP, you're a little bit late to the party, the currencies have already peaked and are settling down to the normal 5yo average path, the sudden inflow that triggered that was later erased by some converting the same currency to us dollars as short-term inflation took the bite with the huge increase in demand of everything. Rent prices were going insane in some of those, especially in the big cities.
Here is one example
https://jam-news.net/how-the-war-in-ukraine-affects-the-real-estate-market-in-georgia/
The gain temporarily helped prices of imported goods, then it was offset completely long term as demand boomed and so did the purchasing power thanks to the inflow.


This is now about the growth of GDP, it's about the currency pair, the economy of Switzerland didn't grow extraordinarily during the crisis but the franc still appreciated 20% versus the USD.

You can look at both the three currencies mentioned and see the same bump happening at the start of the war:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=AMD
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=GEL
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=KZT

Then you can go and check some of the currencies of countries that were not involved but still had a good year, like Vietnam or any other Asian country, and see that the pattern is not there.


I'm sure the FSB would love that!

So which one is it? Are prices increasing or decreasing? If they're dramatically increasing, then we obviously can't be talking about deflation as your topic suggests.

If indeed we have a situation of hundreds of thousands of wealthy Russians flooding those countries, especially the small ones like Armenia or Georgia, then I think the most likely economic outcome would be increased inflation (rising prices), but it could be partially offset by strengthening of local currencies as the Russians would have to exchange their Rubles or Dollars.

It's not obvious if this is something that has a positive or negative effect. On one hand - a massive inflow of money is always a boost to the economy, on the other hand - it could cause some serious disruption and shortages of products and services (i.e. local population could be priced out of buying houses)

For context, the economy of Georgia and Armenia has been steadily growing for several years now due to several reasons. There is a sharp growth curve now, but that cannot be simply credited to immigration of Russian citizens with the numerous factors such as tourism, agriculture, exports etc.

In-order to draw a pattern here, there would need to be more information about the credentials of the Russian emigrants, parts of those countries they likely move to and compare the stats across the different states. Also, there should be historical data on growth curve over the past decade or two

- Jay -

Can't comment much on Armenia and Georgia, but I've heard mostly naturalized Russian citizens from eastern CIS (ex USSR) states were fleeing to Kazakhstan. They are neither rich nor ethnically Russian.

Since the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun, hundreds of thousands of Russians are leaving Russia and moving in another countries. I hope it's clear that majority of these people who leave Russia are educated and/or rich, i.e. the people who are the brain and drive Russia.

One of the most popular destinations for them are Kazakhstan, Georgia and Armenia.

Kazakhstani Tenge has gained 15% against the dollar since the start of Russia - Ukraine war.
Georgian Lari has gained 38% against the dollar since the start of Russia - Ukraine war.
Armenian Dram has gained 35% against the dollar since the start of Russia - Ukraine war.

Food prices in Armenia are partially decreased compared to last year
I can't find legit information about what's happening in Kazakhstani and Georgia but from my quick investigation, it seems that prices are dramatically increasing in these countries despite the fact that Kazakhstani gained 15% and Georgia gained 38% dominance against the dollar.

Is anyone here from these three countries? What's going on there? Did the wave of mostly rich Russian immigrants positively affected your country?