In the bull market, what you do is right. In the bear market, everything you do is wrong except for short position.
The market is irrational and will not be shifted by any individual's will.
Sometimes you do a lot of technical and fundamental analysis about market, but occasionally it seems to be useless because there was always a lag in the market.
I think you have a valid point in some gray areas, but in other perspectives, not all aspects of crypto are working always in that way, Bull and Bear are just a kind of market situation and it happens every day but it occurs in a different magnitude. while "winning and losing" is partly the result of our personal judgment meaning a right and wrong action/decision will reflect positive and negative results in the end. thats how I see it base on my personal experience.