Topic: There's no way this is a "V-shaped" recovery... right? (Read 1031 times)

In my opinion, the people do not have much influence on the markets. I think whatever money they have will be used for consumer goods and first necessity items. The increase of stock and financial assets could be simply due to the massive amount of money the Federal Reserve has put into the market (as Quantitative Easing). Anyway, I do not believe the high prices we see today are sustainable...

I'll definitely take a look at this - or just call it a day and do some $338 spy calls for JUne 30.

The stock market is recovering the losses but the economy isn't recovering yet. I guess this is because of the stimulus provided by the government, people are investing with that money and as they are spending the money so somewhat economy is getting back on track due to which The stock market is rising, and most probably people are also investing leftover money into stocks as well.

oh well, just be glad you weren't shorting or buying puts in april like people i know.

re "too late".....a couple strong growth stocks that are late to the party but also made huge breakouts this past thursday/friday are PLUG and AMAT. there are no guarantees on this roller coaster but i think they might pull an AMZN and make a new ATH before reality sets in re the true state of the economy.

interesting reading: https://www.barrons.com/articles/11-growth-stocks-that-arent-too-late-to-buy-yet-51591373760

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

i can't believe the s&p500 is back in the 3100s. less than 10% from the ATH now, insanity!

bears are getting destroyed. RIP shorters.


i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-cdc-is-worried-americans-arent-following-its-advice-as-us-cases-continue-to-rise.html
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/05/world/coronavirus-cases-rising-faster-intl/index.html

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

Just as we feel a bit better there will be some more companies bankrupting because they couldn't handle all the debt and the recovery wasn't fast enough for them so we will all suck for a while in economy, after that we will start to recover again and there will some more companies that goes down because they handled the first going down but the second one killed them, so we will start to recover after t... well it will continue like this for a loong time, I say at least 2 years, we will only recover after a long period of nothingness.

But wouldn't, then, this mean that bitcoin's price in said FIATs will increase in comparison, the purchasing power might stay the same but it would go up because bitcoin is not dependent on a single FIAT currency, am I reading that right?

Are we near the top..? Considering I myself now am FOMOin'g and want to get into some calls just to make some money.

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

It could be a real v sheped recovery. Gov is spending a lot of money for recovery, printing a lot of money. All of this keep wall street from falling. They are trading not a real economy situation. They are trading recovery already

I feel this CONVID19 pandemic cannot be resolved in the near future, therefore I do not believe in "V-shaped" recovery. We do not wait
until the crisis is over for investment, do it quickly if you still have cold money for investment. Because a little late we will lose the moment
to be able to get cheap prices for both stock and crypto investments. Based on my analysis many people will soon adapt to coexist with
CONVID19, if that has happened then the economy will rise soon.

Consider what it would take for governments to uniformly start using cryptocurrency. Probably a total collapse of fiat currencies, which would not be orderly. If that happens, there will turbulent circumstances for quite some time, years or even decades. Even if value eventually pours into cryptocurrencies, prices could be crushed in shorter term liquidity crises, just like they were this past March.

I'm more in Crypto

I dont understand that people that know that pandemic will last for a year preach about V shape recovery. They are lying directly to camera. Today politicians can simply say whatever they want. No one call them on their wrong predictions anymore.

Crypto is just another form of stock.

It doesn't mean it has zero usecases.

I like the idea of the permissionless network. You know no matter what happens your money will go through.

It is a great tool if you do freelancer work and collect your money when banks&paypal isn't available to you or simply don't want to use them.

Keeping too much value in it is very tiring on the other hand. Not everybody can carry a burden like that.

If there is a crisis or any incident that no one could have predicted, and the governments of all countries decide to use cryptocurrency, then incredible changes will occur in everything, including the price of cryptocurrencies.

I mean that we cannot know for sure. Tomorrow everything can change.

Corona pandemic is indeed the first test for bitcoin but until now bitcoin is still an attractive choice. Because pandemics attack economic subjects so bitcoin is associated with fiat fall, like a machine that needs an operator to run, but the operator is absent so the machine is silent. But the moment of falling prices of bitcoin three months ago was used by many people to buy bitcoin.

When the beginning of the pandemic spread, corona also caused panic in crypto assets. And indeed there are many selling actions carried out by a group of people who need cash to shop and save their businesses, the impact of the global economy continues to worsen. The condition of the pandemic that never ended made the various investment sectors fluctuate and completely uncertain.

But compared to shares the price movement of bitcoin in the middle of a pandemic is still interesting. Although from February 15 to March 14, the price of bitcoin dropped dramatically, but after that, the price tends to rise. Market confidence in bitcoin investment is the sentiment that drives the rise in bitcoin prices besides the halving moment will increase bitcoin prices in the long run and gradually.

Cryptos are also a very "early investor" type of asset while the stocks and real estate are very mature... BTC recovered its loses, but it also is a big rollercoaster, not sure if this comparison is fair...

BTC did crash with equities and most other assets in March, that's true.

On the other hand, BTC also recovered 100% of those losses. Gold as well. But real estate funds, stocks? Not even close. Maybe this is a divergence worth paying attention to.

Since cryptos are a means of storing value they will always have a correlation with the real world (either positive or negative). No correlation would be possible if the ecosystem and goods we could buy are entirely uncorrelated with the real world. (Maybe MMORPG currencies could react this way, but I wouldn't store money by buying gold in WoW :p )

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

See I do think if you are considering talking about the stock markets I should list that right now in my country and maybe in many others too the stock market is actually very down . Market manipulation is something that I do think might happen right now, on a much larger scale. Since the mall investors are out of the business , it is just the whales and the big investors who are actually controlling it, there will be a time where due to no jobs and such people will have to cash out . That will not stop the rich one's from making profits out of the pandemic.

But Due to low price right now many people are buying and waiting for this crisis to be over soon so that soon enough what they brought could actually be sold at a far better price.

Now , that would certainly indicate future profits are due .

Plus as I see , many people are talking about vaccine and how it will come by December and so . See there is no hard and fast rule here , there are companies and universities which are giving promising news but one cannot be sure of it . At the same time people are undergoing human trail so that the effectiveness can be judged correctly.

One would still have to wait for a year or so to make this vaccination program work . It won't happen overnight. It took decades to eradicate polio and pox . Plus we can still see 1-2 cases here and there .

Chances are Corona virus will be like them.. some people might have it , some might now. It might even become a seasonal thing . Vaccination does not mean we will be able to be done with it in a matter of months or even years .

One intelligence observer has the view that Anthony Fauci (Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) and Trump's staff in completing the Coronavirus Task Force is an expert who has been unfortunate across six American presidents and also the person behind SARS and AIDS. It was Fauci who started the biological warfare scenario from the Americans. It was found that COVID -19 does have an enrichment element wherein the HIV element attacks the immunity of the victim and is hundreds of times stronger than SARS.

Fauci is part of a conspiracy, China and WHO are false information throughout the world by saying the coronavirus spreads only from animal to human, not human to human. So that many countries are not aware of and underestimate the power of spread and killing power COVID-19.

The world is a victim of a WHO conspiracy, China, the global pharmaceutical elite, and the democratic party. Vaccine sales are big business for this gang. Steve Bannon provided information about WHO's a practice which finally ended with Trump's anger and officially cut off cooperation with WHO.

Whatever shape it is,the important is the economy will recover from this pandemic caused but the until now the situation is very difficult to predict a rapid recovery. All are affected even in cryptomarket. Many sold their tokens just to survive but i believed that it will not bring down the cryptomarket. Sooner or later the market will go back to normal in any way if their will be a covid medicine. For now let us track the movement of crypto.

I'm not buying the manipulation via index futures conspiracy theories. What really matters are individual stocks. There may be a positive feedback loop happening between futures and stocks but there isn't nearly enough liquidity in futures for it to be the primary driver. SPY volume alone is much higher than CME's ES1 futures or any other futures market I'm aware of, let alone the stock markets themselves.

I think they are both just riding the bull together.


Careful now. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Lots of resistance between here and 314 but I'm cautious getting too bearish while the market has been grinding up (and now just closed above) the daily upper BB. This is exactly what BTC was doing in late April as the market broke above $8K.

Looks like we're steadily holding above $300 on SPY today. We saw a drop below to $296 low but it rebounded today and overall mostly flat today.

What do you guys think about the charts floating around showing that most of the gains are made overnight, in fututres? What does it say about the market?

Dark pool and market manipulation rampant? Or just the hedge funds are uncertain?

USA hit 100,000 deaths today as states reopen, considering buying some puts at the moment.... and BTC seems to be stuck in a 8.8 - 9.2k range.

It's like the whole market is holding it's breath and waiting for what's next.

The sentiment seems to be bearish. Was looking at contract prices yesterday and saw that ITM calls were like $.50 on SPY while ITM puts were $4.50 or something... interesting.

As for the comments on Japan, I don't think it'll get to that, at least under Trump. Doesn't Japan own something like 80% of the Nikkei 255? I think it'll be groundbreaking if the US government owns even just 1% of the SP500 or NASDAQ under Trumps administration this term or next one (it's safe to assume he'll get elected at this point).

The US government and Fed would love to achieve positive inflation. In reality it may not be up to them. We will see what the markets do.

I don't see how invading small countries or "siphoning off" expensive oil (especially in this market) would stop a deflationary spiral. The US military has done some awful shit but isn't all that relevant here.

The experience of Japan is that no amount of public spending or QE was able to stave off deflation. The same may be true of the US.

And what I'm saying is that, the US government will never allow massive deflation such as Japan to occur. They don't need to, since they have the biggest gun in this movie. Who's gonna go and collect debt from an armed thug?  Imagine 1 Euro = 50$ US, or 100 YEN = 100$ US - can you? I surely can't. I'm quite sure they will try and invade a few more countries, try and siphon off Venezuela's oil, and keep trying to live on the same pattern of unsustainable consumption at other's expense that they have been used to for decades.

The rest of us are in for a decade of war rather than deflation.  Just my 2 cents.

Look at Japan. Worst debt to GDP ratio in the world. Their endless public spending and bailouts caused two decades of stagnation, contraction, and wage losses.

Lots of US businesses, no longer sustainable in a deflating economy, are being pumped full of debt through a combination of bailout loans and Fed junk bond buying. If this band-aid solution doesn't work and bad debt spills into a banking crisis, the situation begins to look a lot like Japan in the early 1990s:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

What I'm saying is, maybe the house of cards won't fall. Maybe we'll just have a brutal decade of deflation, a shrinking economy, falling wages, tight credit, etc. and a ballooning public debt....... and life will go on. That's what happened in Japan anyway.

They have printed as much money as they can at this point with the Paycheck protection program (PPP) and the CARES act. Hundreds of billions of dollars spent giving out garbage loans to businesses that are already going to fail and handing out free checks worth 1,200 USD for any working citizen who makes less than a certain amount. You also got 500 USD per child under 17. I'm not necessarily oppose to some sort of relief to people that are suffering, but blowing open the debt is not something that I should have to pay the burden off because of irresponsible spending. The government bailing out small businesses that are bound to collapse and default on their loans is now something that every U.S. tax payer has to pay for now.

Beyond that, the US government is considering a second round of stimulus checks. This is in addition to unemployment which are making poorly run states bankrupt. The house of cards is going to fall at some point if they keep this up. It's really not a question about whether or not Americans are going to have to make sacrifices for the next few years, it's a guarantee at this point. The U.S. government is taking a gamble here and if they default on the debt they've generated, it's on them.

Do we really believe that the Americans people and politicians are willing to sacrifice and face hardships for a decade?

I strongly feel they will continue to print money to prop up this house of cards, and by the time it really starts to fall, the big guns will come out.

This is pretty much the primary concern with governments essentially printing money and gambling on the fact the economy can recover in order to repay the debt. The U.S. economy will take a minimum of 5-10 years to recover and the unemployment rate will take years to fully recovery. I'm not sure how you can justify adding trillions to the national debt within a span of a year and actually want to prolong the lock down.

Honestly with trump being present, a decade of staved off growth.

#3, best case scenario. In a perfect world (where the industry speeds up 4-5x beyond the fastest developed vaccines ever), we have a vaccine by December or January. I don't think it's realistic to produce at scale at that point unless governments start building the production capacity now.

Governments are beginning to curb stimulus spending and take the "wait and see" approach which makes all of these optimistic timelines all the more unlikely. For the 1-year timeline to work, basically every single phase in the process (from research phases to building/refabbing factories to produce at mass scale) need to be done almost exactly in parallel.

Most people in the industry think this is all highly unrealistic, although many also say it's worth a shot and maybe we'll get lucky.


Bond rates have been plummeting. That alone suggests a dreary outlook for economic growth. I don't think we can talk about similar moves yet since all we've seen so far in equities is an initial crash and potential bull trap. If/as bond rates go negative, and demand for bonds still remains strong, and equities begin to decline again, that will be a strong confirmation of the theory.


That would be reasonable. A "lost decade" like Japan could be in the cards. After the 1980s asset bubble popped, they staved off a Great Depression by massively inflating public debt, but it destroyed long term growth.

So let me pose this question:

A lot of what the economy is waiting for is a vaccine. We really can't get going until we have a vaccine.

What do we think about Faucci stating that there could be a vaccine by December?

Would it be-
1. A complete lie, just something to say to help bolster current stock market prices. Vaccines take years, right? Unless technology has really progressed that far.
2. True, but with asterisks. Production capacity makes it inaccessible, expensive, etc. Trump has shown he wants to take care of America first so would he hoard it among me and other fellow Americans?
3. Perfect world case scenario - it works, and we're able to produce at scale to vaccinate 95%+ of the world population in weeks to get the economy going again.

As for equity following credit, did we see similar moves at the beginning of this crisis? I don't remember - I do remember the 10-year yield hitting 0 and that was historic.

I think the shape is more like L or U with a wide or long base. Given the pinball effect of this pandemic, even though China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and some countries are already green, in many countries they are still endemic. The only vaccine solution that is not yet clear when it can be distributed. The longer the pandemic is tamed the greater the economic consequences that must be paid. The greater the budget deficit and the greater the debt that must be created as well as the smaller income due to various stimuli provided by the government. In addition, the recovery of double shock demand and supply will also be more severe.

When the economy in a country goes into a recession leading to depression, the first choice is tightening and protection. This condition is experienced by many countries which ultimately inhibits international trade. Imports will not be an option given the budget deficit and the depletion of foreign reserves and also the routine state expenditure.

The phenomenon of rising unemployment during a pandemic is unlikely to be resolved immediately after the pandemic ends, which means demand will be hit except for essential primary needs. I am pessimistic that the government can create labor-intensive employment projects but create high demand. which resulted in economic stagnation to break the chain effect of double shock demand and supply.

There is also another view of not a V-shaped, but rather an L-shaped recovery: https://www.dlacalle.com/en/an-l-shaped-recovery-is-not-an-anomaly-it-is-the-norm/

Logic and arguments in the article all seem valid.

Of course, each of us wants cryptocurrencies to increase sharply in price, but let's be realistic, this may never happen. At the moment, I don't see any prerequisites for such a sharp growth.

Exactly. And this is in the context of unprecedented QE and rock bottom interest rates, even talk of negative interest rates. This situation is supposed to stimulate investment into any and all markets due to the terrible return on holding cash.

Which makes me ask, what the hell do the bond markets know that the equity markets don't?


https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-bond-markets-stall-investors-see-hard-times-ahead-11589967001

For how long can this continue? The Fed liquidity injections may be propping up equities temporarily as investors quietly exit away from risk assets and into the safety of low yield credit. As the Fed pulls the rug out, that may become more clear.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-have-rallied-as-bond-yields-have-slumped-that-could-signal-trouble-ahead-51588171032

That's it. I can't understand people who in 2020 are shouting that "all this is the collapse of the system we will not survive the new crisis!!!"
What is in the minds of these people? Five minutes on Google is too hard for these people to understand that a crisis is as normal as running out of a can of soda? Yes, it's over, but if you get your ass off the couch and go to the store, you'll have a can of soda again - and this is the same as how the economy works (super-simple example, but still).

Wait if I'm thinking about this right... the attraction is that investors will ONLY lose a certain amount? So like if they only lose 1% but purchasing power goes down 3% they're out ahead?

That's actually insane.

Here's a new twist on that idea: negative yielding bonds.

For the first time ever, the UK just sold government bonds with a negative (-0.003%) yield: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/20/uk-sells-government-bond-with-negative-yield-for-first-time-coronavirus

And the incredible thing? There is strong demand for them:


That's amazing to me, and sort of scary. If bond rates keep dropping (2-year US bond rates hitting all time lows now too) and there is still strong demand, that suggests dark days ahead for equities. Stocks and bonds draw on the same pool of investors which is why the two generally have a strong negative correlation. If investors want to pay for the privilege of holding government bonds instead of holding equities, there must be some serious fear about the economic outlook for the next 2-3 years.

Capitalism is the system that ensures faster growth and that certain will make the economic hardship to be overcome. Production is the mark of economic growth and many are opening back for work. Soon we are going back to normal with bitcoin recovery.

The simple answer is that people just have too much money that doesn't cost anything. The over-inflated financial sector has cracked under its own weight due to a series of unrelated events, triggering another classic period of crisis. Because there will be a depression and then the rise will begin as it has already been and more than once.
Think of it as an emergency weight loss before the summer - you suffer for a long time and in many ways deny yourself, torment yourself. But then again, you can afford to drink beer in the morning and eat in restaurants for weeks. The economy NEEDS crisis. Not so often, of course. This is the l normal and natural course of things under capitalism and there is nothing super-scary about it. We have always risen and this time we will also rise and it will be better than it was.

I just mean the stock market. I'm talking about March 2009 onward:



Then, same as now, the market is trying to price in an economic recovery before it actually happens. This time I'm less confident, but at the same time, it's difficult to argue with trillions and trillions USD injected into the markets. These are truly unprecedented times.


The consensus among scientists is yes. The market is expecting it to be better controlled next time given awareness, time to prepare, and possible treatments or even vaccines available by then. I'm worried the market is overly optimistic.

I think we need to see June or Q2 financials to get a real feel for how things are progressing.

Sadly, one of my businesses is a corporate event organizer that involves crowds, restaurants, hotels, transportation, etc. It is the biggest and got hit the hardest.

This year still no demand, Q2 2021 will be low demand, Q4 2021 new normal (not as high as pre-covid).
Just guesstimate, and I will be very happy if my prediction will be proven false in a good way.

Yeah it seems SPY is acting like a huge biotech stock right now. Did you see how it reacted to Moderna? Jeez.

There's talks of a vaccine being made sometime later this year - that's literally impossible right? From what I've read it seems that it will take at least 18 months at the best.


But the "recovery" in 2009 - we were still in the gutter for a while afterward right? Are you using an economical definition of recovery, as a return to previous highs?

I want to see how the market reacts in 2 weeks time as the nation reopens and data should be coming in soon. It seems pretty much confirmed at this point that a second wave will be coming, no?

That's the key. The smartest traders I know were all quick to point out in March/April that the stock market is not dependent on fundamentals. Fundamentals hardly matter at all. What matters is liquidity. Bears can't fight a Fed that is injecting trillions and trillions of dollars of liquidity into the market. They are even propping the market up by buying massive amounts of corporate junk bonds, shoveling endless money into failing companies.

That implies one of two things to me:

• A recovery like 1987 or 2009, which assumes money printing can solve all woes
• The economic damage is too great, buy side liquidity will disappear (except for the Fed) and we're looking at a summer/autumn 1930 situation

Very binary situation, and we really won't know for quite some time. The incredible amount of optimism and the actual economic numbers definitely make me feel bearish though. There is so much irrationality going on. So much of the market refuses to accept even the possibility of an economic depression. The Gilead and Moderna rallies made that all the more clear. Everyone is banking so hard on a fast resolution. What happens if later trials (the real test of treatments and vaccines) don't pan out? What happens if there is a second wave in the fall?

If there is no miraculous turnaround in GDP in the next 3 months or so, the markets are setting themselves up for massive disappointment and another liquidity cascade like March.

Vaccine seems to be a long way out for now, of course there are some tests going on right now and thankfully there was couple of drugs that was used that showed some improvement and since that was discovered we are using that to basically heal people but there is no one cure that you can just inject with a needle and suddenly you are better. So, what we have right now is good because even if its slow and even it is a treatment instead of a cure, at least it shows us what helps people and what doesn't, we know a path. That is better than nothing if you ask me.

However all the tests, all the formulations, all the stuff just on paper (well computer these days) could even take months, after that we are going to need a lot more on top of that in order to reach the vaccine level.

Yes got my words tangled up there. And if you don't mind asking, what kind of business do you run? Is it a restaurant, or something else that is directly affected by the pandemic? How do you see your business operating in the future.

A W shape would be nice - was playing with options and should've not gotten greedy and sold out near 2300...

Chances are crypto's has its own patterns of chart movement we don't even know about.
So it could be "W shaped recovery" or whatever there isn't

I think the v shape recovery is what we are seeing because money seem to be flowing into the economic now as the economy itself is coming back. There is no need to be pessimistic because the economy is getting back in a gradual way.

I dont believe at all in the "V shaped recovery".

I believe there is still quite a lot of risk off sentiment and this will prevail despite the coordinated efforts by Western central banks to print more money and support the various asset classes.

Isn't it a marvel when an entity can issue 'bonds' and the same entity can issue money to buy those bonds (because no one else is buying)?

I don’t think that we should wait for the cryptocurrency prices to rise immediately after the events that are happening now, since other problems will begin immediately after these events. We must be ready for a long cold winter!

It will take a whole lot of time to recover so it will definitely not be pointed at the bottom. Depending on the speed of development and degree of success of this current virus' vaccine researches, we might actually be seeing a sort of a downward ladder.

If the economy will respond positively and quickly to the lifting of restrictions and lockdowns-- which is a huge risk and therefore highly unlikely to produce the desired results-- it might somewhat be a V-shaped graph, but then it will eventually fall down once again sans a COVID vaccine, and possibly turn even worse after that.

I'm not cash heavy right now, I never was. As far as my crypto portfolio is concerned, it is actually far smaller that it was a few years ago.

To be honest I don't believe in V shape recovery. Having in mind current situation and some predictions for fall such rapid recovery would be too optimistic to expect.
It's yet to see all the consequences that economies have suffered and at this moment we can't see the whole picture. That also reffers to cryptocurrency market that will also have some indirect consequences and the whole impact is still hard to determine.

I'm following this scenario. The current, apparent status of the economy is honestly looking too good to be true for what happened since the beginning of the year. The artificial pumps and desperate attempts to hide the ugliness of what's to come is making me believe that once they stop everything they're doing to cover the real side of the economy, hell will unleash.

This PDF has a chart at page 5 that clearly shows the fact that short-time working is predicted to be for 2020 in Germany on a more-than-double increase in comparison with 2009 which is alarming. To me, the worldwide economy looks like an insane bubble they're still trying to protect from bursting.

Look at the worldwide debt - do you think it'll just increase forever and money will be printed continuously and everything will artificially increase to quadrillions of dollars in debt?

These measures they're taking to protect against a crisis can't go forever. They have to stop one day - wonder what'll happen after they do. I felt a crisis was inbound for years, but never did I expect what we're witnessing right now. I just ask myself many times of the day what comes after health crisis, and I sure do hope the answer isn't food shortage.


Yes. I was planning to slowly accumulate PMs and crypto in the following 1-2 years, but now I'm on fast forward.

I have seen 'L shape' bandied about which is even less appealing.

The thing about this event that's impossible to call is that economies are basically in suspended animation. It's only when they come out of that that we get a sense of the actual damage. The workers lucky enough to be in countries that are paying their wages probably feel relieved at the moment. They may be less relieved not realising their job is withering and dying off screen and may not be there when the subs end.

And you can have a market that appears healthy and a real world economy that bears little to no resemblance to it. That's what it's been like in recent years already. If you were heavily involved in the markets there've been high after high. If you were working an actual job you would've noticed your cost of living going ever up while your quality of life was slowly sliding downwards.

There might be an even more stark delineation after this of that nature.

It does not matter how recovery will look like. Governments are printing money and increasing country's debts. Economy will recover. It will recover sooner or latter unless the debt bubble will burst. Debt bubble will definitely burst. Covid-19 lockout helped adding a lot more hot air in the balloon. But e have no ideas when the big bang will happen. It can happen this year it can happen next year or in 10 years time. Latter it will happen more ready Bitcoin will be.

My crypto allocation is doing good I'd say. People is more with cash today and this is the reason that make them say that 'cash is king'. I think many were forced to sell most of their investments like crypto but if not, a bigger portion of it.

This isn't just about the depression of the economy but also we're dealing with pandemic. I don't know if these combined bad events are good because they're happening at once, just keeping myself with optimism.

Now I think people are investing a lot again so the stock market just went back up. but it seems that they are fomo about cheap stocks but they don't see the real world situation. Now the epidemic has not ended and every day the world has recorded tens of thousands more infected, so what is the reason for the market to recover? I guess most are betting on the future. If the situation doesn't change better, there will be a stronger panic sell. Now I just pray for the disease to be under control and everything is back to normal.

I expect we'll be having up and down movements over the next weeks, while remaining in the downrange. The general sentiments are gloomy, the effect of the lockdown visible in many economies and with an end to the pandemic not yet in sight, so I won't be expecting a quick recovery.

I expect a heavy push of cash into the markets to encourage spending and revive economies, possibly leading to a inflation, this would likely lessen the weight of fiat.

I think it is more like a W-shape or U-shape since many experts predict there will be a second wave outbreak in autumn this year. Plus, my business (and the majority of my partners) are still on pause, and I don't see we can fully operate this year.

Anyway, all those securities you mention should reflect the real sector, not the other way around.

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?