Topic: This interesting Bitcoin chart is not dissapointing. (Read 370 times)

I haven't completely ruled out the significance of S2F either, even if I don't completely understand the maths/science, I can still see it's relevance in relation to price.

As far as I can tell, price successfully reached it's so-called "fair value" in November 2021. The reason so many people are resentful about this model is because price didn't go significantly above it's fair value, as has been the case in previous bull markets, and clearly didn't get the memo that Bitcoin doesn't do refunds or guarantees. Despite some wild monthly predictions from Plan B, that appeared to be very much disregarding of his own model (that doesn't make monthly predictions, only estimates of a "fair price"), the projection of a fair value for Bitcoin by next halving in May 2024 as $74K appears realistic to me still, even if price remains below this level by the time of the halving. Whether price reaches $700K by 2028 is another question though... but still a couple of years to go at least to see if this model remains relevant or not.

In reality it shouldn't be surprising that Bitcoin didn't go beyond it's fair value in last years bull market, as with numerous technical/fundamental indicators/models now existing, in comparison to 2017 or 2013 when there were few to none, it largely prevented many from making the mistake of buying into Bitcoin when it is over-valued, over-bought, or entering bubble territory (as has previously been the case).

I'm with you on this.
It's just macro events that have made it skewed a bit...

Still have faith in S2F

I have some faith in this data model and on-chain analysis of BTC, Let's see how good was this data model after 7 years maybe!

Please do not race much to prove this model right/wrong, my main intention was to get the accuracy & reliability of such data for Bitcoin and then compare it with the on-chain analysis and not get people called "MAD" for believing/observing this kind of data.

Nobody is right, only time will tell.

Could be true, but the hardest part of this model though that it remains very accurate if we look at it and then we are just one step before we can see $100k. However, we didn't reach that far, so yeah, every model has to break, and then a new model re-emergence.

But if we look at his model, there is already some deviation and yet we keep on believing because we wanted to see 6 digits and maybe some of us are already counting our profits.  . And now he recalibrated and pointing that 2023 is the new 2021.

Last year, this model already disappointed many people since almost people believe Bitcoin will hit $100,000 at the end of 2021, but as we can see the highest price is only $69K lol. Even though PlanB model is considered a long term prospect about Bitcoin investment, but it's actually should be since we're already know Bitcoin is the only one coin who will still alive even bear market happen, unlike shitcoins were many projects often died.

Yes, it was clear enough to see that Bitcoin is growing every year but what was unclear is the chart presentation (sorry).
Maybe it was the time to learn our minds and doubts, so many times that has been that Bitcoin is a growing investment, not a failure project. Though it looks like we fail being considered it as a currency option, however, it was also productive and beneficial in other ways. That is why people adore Bitcoin as being a profitable investment.

Your point of view is somewhat logical, this is what I think too. Indicators and charts often fail to predict the future, especially when there are important events that change the course of events such as the Corona virus, interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve or the ban on mining in China, In all of these cases there were major influences that led to the failure of all predictions, so I believe that indicators, charts and technical analysis are only useful in cases where things are going naturally without any unexpected influences.

My theory is that the supposedly "predictive" models serve more to understand the past than to predict the future.

What usually happens is the following: the past is observed, in this case of Bitcoin, some regularities are observed (which to some extent are arbitrary), and from there a model is assembled assuming that the future will be similar.

I prefer to rely on events that happen in the real world rather than on charts drawn on the basis of a continuation of patterns. Like the miners' ban in China last year, which was not foreseen in any technical analysis or predictive model, also the reduction of liquidity by central banks, or the cascading liquidation of leveraged positions as we have seen recently. All this is much more important than standing in front of a blackboard and drawing future lines based on the supposed regularities you observe in the past.

In the case of PlanB, he put together a very elaborate and logical model based on supply, and I understand that he does not want to give it up for lost after so much time and effort invested in it, but I think he would do better moving on and stop making a fool of himself.

I don't know, but in the long run, we can consider the model to give positive hope, meaning that 69k ATH represents 70% of what the model said, which is considered a good percentage, but the error is using it for short-term forecasting or relying on it as a fact in determining the lowest and highest price, as the price has fluctuated dramatically Crazy between price levels.

Whether the model was broken or not, investment plans should not be built on a single model.

I would love to see some of your's theories / Data Models predicting something, Mr. Poker Player.

I would rather say that when the creator of a predictive model does not stop changing the predictions when the facts dismantle his theory, what he is doing is making a fool of himself.

PlanB had earlier stated in June around the mining and Musk’s energy FUD that the worst-case scenario for 2021 would see Bitcoin above $135k by the end of December

Plan B Says Bitcoin Price Still 'on Track Towards $100K' Despite Missing November's Price Prediction

PlanB Explains Why Bitcoin Won’t Drop to $24.5K Again

This last one is dated April 15 of this year.

A little theory of mine

Every model breaks, when too many people anticipate on the models results

I agree 100%. When you have a theory that predicts some data, and subsequently the data does not match what the theory predicted, there are two fundamental attitudes:

1) Invalidate the theory.
2) Find excuses not to invalidate the theory.

It is clear to me that 1) is the correct option.

This model only models stock to flow. PlanB had already commented that this model does not account for macro-economic events like COVID, laws, regulation, war, recession, etc. Nor does it take into account whale games.

The model could still be correct but have a cycle REKT by macro economics

Just for future reference there is no perfect view of the future, a model is just a scenario of events continuing to perform in this expectation.    When we deviate enough from expectations be on guard, like breaking a new ATH but then reversing was a good time to be cautious and it built from there.  The main thing I disagree with is fixed time objectives, we have big events knocking us sideways all the time it wont run like a train on a track to schedule as we are often with such uneven ground to proceed forward.
   I think sentiment accumulates like price, it requires resetting thats why I want to see every thread title abjectly gloomy as if price is entirely accurate always and our singular determination.  

Right, many times he adjusted the parameters to look like we are still in target and accurate till November 2021.


Great lessons, many who should have taken their profits at the high in November. But majority still based on this model that they really think more money is going to come if it reaches $100k. I didn't follow that guy though, but just curious of his predictions, nevertheless it has been disproved already so what it is there to follow?

As someone said, it's already invalidated, but the hype surrounding it last year was so high that it really captures the imagination of experience and newbie investors alike. Who wouldn't want to see bitcoin hitting 6 digits at the end of 2021?

Anyhow, we will see what's going to happen in the next bull run, as the model is being updated with new numbers so obviously there will be new target in 2024-2025.

There could be a lot of people who will try to defend what they think is the right thing, and I am not really worried about it, you can defend your chart as much as you want. The point is that, charts are getting invalidated every single day, and yes your chart as well and that is fine.

But, if you ask me we are talking about something that is a bit more serious here with the fact that crypto is not something you can calculate beforehand. Obviously the big sales comes from the bitcoin rich people who bought it early and made a ton of profit and they are worried that they would not be making that back if they sell it all when it's low, hence they wait until it peaks and then sell, that's it.

The reason why it looks like it’s accurate because the creator keeps updating the parameters constantly. So it looks accurate however you can say it readjusts and reprints as there are more points plotted.

Many followed this and lost out on huge unrealized profits in late 2021. They assumed it would go to $100K by end of November and they were all surprised. Now many people have stopped following that guy.

I remember reading a statement by @100trillionusd account in which he says that by the end of this year if Bitcoin does not rise to 100,000 or close to it, it can be safely said that the model has not become valid for future prediction.

So let's wait for the end of this year, although I would love to see Bitcoin at that price, it is logical to say that it is almost impossible to reach that level and therefore the strongest hypothesis is to say that this model has not became useful for future prediction.

I think you don't understand that no Model work for Bitcoin. It's very volatile and dynamic, what you can try to compare it with is Wyckoff Accumulation or other similar stuff.
I hate it when people post the PlanB's S2F model as it's already been invalidated so many times in the past.

I agree this model is barely relevant these days, but did it really fail? Looking at one model of it (there are many), then price reached it's target ($67.2K) on November 2021:



Sure it didn't go above it, but price did reach it's so-called target. I'm naturally more sceptical with the target of $720K by 2028, but ultimately until this target fails then the model hasn't failed yet. I guess otherwise by mid 2024 and next halving if price isn't around $75K, then we can consider the model unreliable. But given this is two years away, it doesn't seem that far fetched either.

I was kinda hoping it'd fail, not too sure I want bitcoin to be the (non government backed) asset with the highest market cap out there just yet... (if it's not steady enough, it might be another Microsoft/Twitter)

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What happened in 2015? The price looked really boring (except that time it dropped by half) but the bear winter had been well underway in 2014 so why wasn't that considered the big sell off (the peak being november 2013).

Seriously, it's 2022, and the "model" has obviously been invalidated for a while now. Just let it die out and lose publicity and let's just move on already.

https://www.PlanBtc.com



This chart has some interesting stories to tell about the Bitcoin sellers. the chart says that huge sell realizations have been observed in the past as in 2015, 2011, and 2018. But the phobia around selling remains a mystery. Institutions have been playing their game but who are those large whales who have kept BTC floating around < 50k in the past few months or is it the retail newbies trying to make a quick profit with bitcoin?

It is very unclear. Share your insights with proofs.