Topic: this is a bubble. (Read 7889 times)

depends we have to monitor the volume of transactions on the exchanges as well as the perceived price.. right now it seems to hover around 100 and anything above and below is demand pressure/release.

other things to monitor is the fact that BTC is so hard to get now, the exchanges will fluctuate quite a bit now that it is harder to get BTC through mining... there will be lulls between buying sprees because people will use up at least half of the BTC they are hoarding, the people mining with ASICs won't be contributing to price accretion anytime soon... too centralized.

another factor is the market, how well advertised are the products that can be bought with BTC? if it is not well known, there will be no demand and still we have to consider that BTC is relatively hard to get and new users will have a steep learning curve to figure out the BTC ecosystem(markets, businesses, system, exchanges, etc), there will be a wave pattern to demand on the exchanges.

the ASICs entering the market may be a good thing, price will increase as soon as it is generally known that mining has become more difficult.

someone has to begin analyzing the Blockchain for economic data, what are the known retailers and payment processors BTC addresses... can the flow of BTC be in a recurring pattern that flows into these known businesses?  The more BTC is flowing in a closed loop, the more predictable the business cycle will be.

but eventually, the exchanges will die, many years from now since the possession of BTC will one day be fully decentralized, no need for exchanges on a world wide currency.

well the bubbles were something like year apart, so I think that the other one will take some time to come... but we might see 500 then

watch out for the next 1 !!
that should be soon...

yeah, it was a bubble

I wrote this about Primecoin earlier:
"also, primecoin is cool....but still doesn't really offer anything over what bitcoin does. it doesn't find new prime numbers (quite difficult to do so) but only connects prime numbers per Cunningham chains to blocks to verify validity. maybe something will come out of it, but PMC's biggest hurdle is beating the chicken and egg problem, to which BTC is a lot closer to accomplishing. imagine the economy of cryptocurrencies themselves as a chain. I imagine that people will "fork "towards the chain with the largest economy as it's the most useful. until another crypto's economy can be comparable, the largest one will keep growing the most"

PPC on the other hand, definitely warranting my attention, so thank you
for the uninitiated: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/9082/what-is-proof-of-stake      (versus proof of work)

Of course I agree completely, you wrote it very good, we need some new "medium".
But I think we should not fix solely on BTC. We cannot know what level of technical invention would be common after a couple of years. My idea was that according to common sense if you look at new cryptocoins, some of them has 20 or even 10 seconds block target - several years after BTC origin. If you want to buy groceries you dont want to wait for X confirmations.
 And proof of stake was invented with PPC. And then I think Primecoin brought something new with primenumbers. It is very probable that next year, even this fall probably, we will see more inovations. More new exchanges, cryptocoin banks. And after a couple of years bitcoin could become just outdated. It would be easier to use something else instead of rectifyinng obsolete BTC which has blockchain over 10 Gb at this time (if I am correct).
When I bought LTC this spring I thought it would be soaring till summer but instead of it, MTGox still was not able to implement LTC and MTgox itself might die or decline at least soon because of constant problems and new better competitors.
BTC is tied up on current level of knoledge and technical innovations like P2P but this level is evolving almost exponentially so it makes me think that in 2140 people would hardly be paying with BTC - simply because it would be outdated. Today we have problems to read data from certain magnetic data tape, CDs are not used much as well... I mean before we had personal PC, mobiles and internet we could hardly think of practical implementation of BTC as payment method.
And very probably 20-30 years from now the level of innovations would shift us somewhere where we dont want to use BTC anymore (in its current "shape").
And besides it - there are not still enough money in it. Market cap is high, but I guess roughly 80% of mined btc never left PC so it might be just a couple of hundred millions in it. If some "high roler" like Arabian sheikh who is drowning in money would like to buy BTC he simply would have problems with such investment - if he buys all btc price would go up maybe too much, if he buys just 1 million of btc it would be so small investment that he even would not recognize it among his hundreds of other trades.... And very probably these rich people prefer holding some obsolete things such as gold or paintings or art and they dont beleive in technical innovations (somewhere I read that Carlos Slim Helu - that rich man from Mexico was/is?/ not using computer or mobile) - how can we expect that these people would be paying with BTC? And if some of these people would not put their money in cryptocoins, than it would never become some kind of mainstream payment method.

because we need a standard medium to placehold the value of things, of which the users themselves agree upon. why do we need currency? because it's hard to exchange a boar for 5 chickens if the chicken farmer doesn't want a boar. now, your question is, why do we need bitcoin? because it's a better currency than any we have had before.

why do we need bitcoin? you need some place to live, something to eat, breath but not bitcoin.
5 years ago we lived without bitcoin and 5 years from now bitcoin might be dead. now there are hundreds of cryptocurrencies and what if somebody invents something what would be even better than bitcoin?
Do we pay with the same banknotes witch was circullating 100 years ago?
what do we use in everyday life that was common 50 years ago?
when was last time when did you burn CD or DVD?
There are not still enough money in it. I think people trade only with small fraction of bitcoins, maybe 10-20%. And only because everybody expects evaluation in the future and is holding their BTC it has some value.
but we have only 3 big exchanges with couple of small onnes. Majority of money that flows to bitcoin is perhaps from USA (I dont think many people from Cyprus invested in BTC, maybe the only one was that pure enterpreneur who made also his thread here in bitcointalk).
In our country (i am not from US) people simply have another problems and majority of common people wouldnot put money in bitcoin, wouldnot pay with btc and maybe even dont know about bitcoin.
If US goverment decide to fight against BTC or if anything else happen bitcoin might end.

Price of BTC is higher then one year ago, but did grow in the same proportion also number of goods and services that could be bought for bitcoin (except from ASIC machines etc)?
certainly we have much more web magazines writing about bitcoin, some people who made fortune on bitcoin and also plethora of other coins but otherwise it is the same as last year.
 Will you demonstrate in the streets and build barricades if price falls?
Miners need high price to get their investment back but not the users. I think it is possible that bitcoin could be $48 next month or in fall.

266/31*266=2282 

I think we already did the testing when we went down to 65 recently. We probably won't see the price go below 70 ever again.

I think sooner or later this year it will come to $50
Now its trying to pierce $100 only to lure some more buyers and than (soon) I assume it will fall - but how fast and where of course I dont know. Unfortunately I didnot have time to make detailed prediction for myself
I think it is not because of some bad banksters behind it, it is just something like natural law. The people who are in and who put money in and are trading BTC inevitably repeat some patterns of behaviour and now crowd is heading up only to fall down soon.
I think current price only shows how much people trust BTC otherwise it would not go up so high after last decline. Becuase most of people are just holding BTC and expect even bigger evaluation. And all this expectations are imprinted in the market price.
However I think $50 or even less is still reasonable price, it will not hurt almost anybody, BTC as a currency would survive it without problems and perhaps in the end it only brings more money in btc enviroment, because more people will be interested in buying. and using btc for paying goods.
And when it falled down from $266 it stopped aroud $50 so it is probable it will test this level again.

I dont think this is a bubble. Next year BTC could be $200 or more. The more people will use btc for paying common goods and services the more valuable BTC will become. And people will use it more and more everyday instead of shitty banknotes which are not already worth the paper they are printed on.

No I'd only say that something is wrong if it goes down to around $20 AND LTC remains near $3, at that point LTC mining would be generating greater total revenue which would be a big warning sign.

I thought if price fall below to $50, it must be something wrong with BTC...you better think again before buying it ....

so when do you think we can start buying BTC for $50 again?

lol 20/20 hindsight

Exactly what I said. It is going to fall soon. When supply and demand rises, volatility rises too. Like the gold market. The deal was to buy it when it was cheap. When everyone started to buy it it was a signal to start selling. And the majority of people lost money.

A few made a fortune though.

This month.

tomorrow!

I don't think BTC will go under 100 USD, at least not for a long time...

Bitcoin will live on as it has assuming this is a bubble waiting to collapse soon, driving away the speculators and in-n-out investors just like it did the first time. In 2011 everyone but the Bitcoin faithful said it was dead...they were wrong.

Imagine what height the next bubble will hit based on existing trends of BTC bubbles?

Bitcoin is a very young economy, and these things will happen until its market cap reaches a level of stability. When that happens no one knows. Maybe after the entire world's economy shifts to Bitcoin after it all goes down this year  Each BTC will be worth about  $3 Million a piece if that did happen someday. An then it wouldn't be worth $3 Million because the USD would be dead and buried, it would just be worth a Bitcoin 

We need a major network station interviewing some Bitcoin millionaire in prime time.

That may turn int a bubble of all bubbles.

Maybe sell some percentage few months after that.

Listen to the wise words, kokjo! Sell the fraction proportional to the perceived risk of severe bubble burst.

Those 16000 buyers in Mt Gox queue says thanks, they'll drive price to 419.99$ and not 420$ in the next 3 weeks !
Agree it's parabolic, but try to catch the top ! 500$ at least if you want quick money

just remember to save (not cash in) at least 10% of your coins when you get out.

i dont. but im already up over 2000%, and i don't want to ride it to 10000% and it means i have to take the risk to go back to 150%...

im out.

Kokjo, I hope you don't have a heart condition.

FF
This is amazing!

I hope the hoarders aren't buying more

this hysteria matters very little to the hoarders

This is a bubble

It is a bubble before it pops, you just can't tell whether it is a bubble or not until after it pops.

it's not a bubble until it pops

There have been many bubbles already:

no, its not. it shows that bitcoin is rising faster then exponential, which is very bad(in my opinion).

that pic is useless, it only shows adoption in the population, not how much the companies that created those things raised in value. 

I do:

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The bitcoin rise has been defined as a parabolic curve. I don't know of of any of those that didn't end badly.

If it's any comfort, during the 3/11 earthquake I was connected by SSH from my office in the Tokyo suburbs to my client's office in Shibuya, about 50 metres from the Mt Gox office. Neither internet nor power went down for a second. Offices in that bit of town are built tough, and TEPCO have some seriously robust infrastructure. (*)

(*) Although there was that one issue they had that one time with the fuel rods and the backup generators.

But yeah, we're too dependent on Mt Gox.

True, but that is using official trading paths, exchanges, OTC trades with other recognised institutions. Not going onto an amateur internet site and transferring 100 million to it. Come to think of it, maybe MtGox won't do it, but if a professional transfers 100 million to any of the other exchanges, I am sure the owner(s) will just jump up, unplug their servers, transfer the money to their personal account and book a one way ticket to some tropical paradise.

Ever heard of the London Whale? Or all any of the long line of "stupid" traders I could wheel out that would have considered spending $1M-$2M on the markets in a blink of eye as buying sweets with pocket change.

I've been watching these forums for the last few months and it is clear that some of you are completely losing all sense of reality.

MTGOX is definitely the weak link.

We seriously need some diversification. If not from the Japanese government, how about earthquakes?

This morning I woke up to a new high, and to see MtGox is still the biggest exchange.

And.... I thought those Japanese economist brilliant! They will devalue there currency but maintain there balance of payments by creating demand for USD, and people will sen  USD to Japan in huge quantities. MtGox is a Japanese Asset.

The log scale is your friend

It doesn't matter if this is a bubble.

The long-term prospects of Bitcoin are still very bullish.

It's only a matter of time before the Bitcoin economy catches up with the current evaluation.

What's much more likely is that the Japanese police will show up at MtGox headquarters one day with a bunch of cardboard boxes and some kind of bafflingly obtuse misunderstanding and start impounding things, like they did with Mirai Kensaku Brazil. If they're set up properly Mt Gox should be able to survive this, but I hope they've had time to make decent contingency plans...

it just hit 220

Laws exist to benefit the State and people on this list. Only suckers think laws apply to everybody.

Actually you are right, naked short selling is illegal according to the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission since the crash of 1929. But apparently the SEC doesn't enforce their own laws nor do they shut down brokerages that allow their customers to do so.

indeed. also known as the "craw principle"

Bubble. Have you seen how quickly the price dropped last weekend? Now wait for next weekend...

Already the Cyprus story was a good hoax. Do you really think that people in Cyprus, Spain etc. who are threatened to loose 10% of their money would invest it right into the most volatile currency/stock on the planet? They risk to loose much more than 10% over night.

Right now the "Iran to sell crude oil for BTC" is served. Never heard more bullshit in one sentence. Does Iran have a BTC wallet on MtGox?

Price goes up, because people want it to raise. As soon as the first big players beginn to cash in, price will fall back under 50$ again...

Naked short selling is a type of fraud although it's usually not acknowledged as such by legal systems.

Not that I'm surprised about that since legal systems are created by organizations funded by theft.

Naked short sellling Bitcoins is bad, m'kay.   I get you though  

Well, at a rate of 3600 new coins mined every 24 hours the market can maintain $75 USD with at least ~$250K of new funds coming into the exchanges on average per day. Assuming the miners sell their coins with the current +20% return above cost per month, at these prices even GPU mining is profitable.

If people start cashing out for good, things will get ugly pretty fast since there is probably not enough fiat in the exchanges for the ~11 Million coins outstanding. (At least I highly doubt there is $825 Million USD standing by).

The rapid increase in difficulty with the 1st batch of Avalons makes P/L estimates for miners more difficult. A rough estimate of all GPU miners converting to ASICs would put the network hashrate near the 1 Petahash mark. Time will tell though because Avalon threw miners a curve ball by pricing new units in BTC instead of USD.

But as long as new funds are arriving at the exchanges and everyone is drinking the kool-aid then we are good to go.  

To Bubble Bobble fans:

MAN THE FUCK UP! Don't act like girlie man, if you are afraid sell and get out of here enough of this crap....

The last time we went through a bubble, in 2011, the price leveled out about 5x where it started. So maybe the price will sink back to 50 USD per BTC?

Really? But where do you think USD wires go ?

Their Japanese account is only used for Japanese deposits, of which there are hardly compared to the rest of the world.

It is starting to look like we could got parabolic.  And according to MagicalTux there are 5000 people waiting for approval so they can start buying, and MtGox only gets through 400 a day.  If these people won't freak out because they weren't able to buy for a week, the price could really go parabolic.

Last bubble started at 1 and went to 32.  This one started at 10.

You can't say that, because there are currently more people willing to sell BTC below 100 - even if some people are willing to pay 100, 1m or more it doesn't mean that everyone agrees with it (e.g. some miners are probably selling at this price)

Just imagine what can happen to BTC price if MTGOX goes bankrupt after Japan government decide to go "the Cyprus way" making "haircuts" from current accounts and freeze all assets in the banks.

tulips, .com, and june '11. FUCK ALL, UP UP UP!

continue ahead euphoric lemmings.

Not only is it a cool way to pay and move money, this is a highly disruptive technology implementation (in a good way).  I'm not saying we're quite to that phase yet but look at, for example, how fast cell phones killed the whole must-own-a-landline (or even a car phone) concept of the 70s-90s.

Just like anything else, this is WORLDWIDE and what was the number someone threw out there once?  0.1% of the whole Internet market alone was equivalent to a coin priced into the thousands of Dollars.  $75 seems like a steal if we hit but a fraction of that.

I like how people keep thinking of it like a stock/commodity and want to short it. LOL.

you have to understand that bitcoin does not abide by the usual laws of economics. The value could be 100 now and it is a real value because that's what people are willing to buy it for.

I tend to agree that the price movement is much more representative of a bubble then anything else. 

Exactly. I asked gribble about it:

Have you seen the volume in recent weeks?  The ratio of price increase vs. volume is very different than back in 2011. It may very well be sustainable, depending on the thinking of these new buyers.

i think you are very wise to take profit if you have a significant investment. i on the other hand dont have enough invested in it to be happy taking profit yet. i will continue to wait to get rich, or not.

also if the bitcoin price crashes the excitement i will feel at the prospect of diverting other assets to take a significant position will greatly outweigh the my negative feelings about the investment i lost with my existing bitcoin position.

It's good that none of us have a direct effect on the market.

what do you mean?
get yourself a bitfinex.com account and start shorting...you only need USD

once anyone can naked short sell BTC, these bubbles will pop real quick  

Exactly, I think it's because many people are following a "buy and hold" strategy, or accumulating Bitcoins with every monthly paycheck and no intention to sell anytime soon.

People are realizing the long-term potential of Bitcoin now since the high from 2011 has been broken.

If this continues upwards like this then obviously at some point it must be a bubble because the amount of inflowing money probably cannot grow exponentially.

My guess is that the exponential growth of the last few weeks will soon come to an end and the price will settle somewhere between 60$-100$.

as oakpacific said. It is not daytraders buying 1mil$ worth of BTC in one go just to dump it once macd or some goat entrails tells them to. There are folks that buying some BTC for a decade or two. They are driving this market.

No, I don't think those who can spend so much in such a manner would go through all the hassles of moving their money into Gox, just to make a few hundred thousand bucks and leave it.

calculated risks: they want you to think that bitcoin are going higher, and then they sell. price pumping 101.

on the other hand: my mother does not know about bitcoin yet: bitcoin is not going to 200$

not fear. its people like you who are pushing the price up, until you realize that you can't sell at a higher price in a reasonable timeframe.

bitcoin is the future, but not the immediate future. its still in beta.

the talk on forum is equivalent to that of june '11

(your next defend of why the price drop in '11: mtgox hack. then i say it was going to happen anyway)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.

that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

When will the fear mongers stop?


Bitcoin does not care if you cannot comprehend the speed of growth.

Your strategy is quite sensible though. No one should risk more than they afford to lose.

ps: We have had people shouting bubble from the very beginning and all the way up to this point. do not panic

The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....

the price can not go up by 400% in only 10 weeks, price cannot go exponential.
i don't care about the people from Cyprus, or anywhere else.
anyone who says otherwise are euphoric tards, and are gonna lose money soon.

im not saying that bitcoin is going to die, only that there is coming a major correction soon.
bitcoin will be prepared for these prices in about 1-2 years.


note: im holding ~50/50 usd and btc, at current prices. so that im ready to buy when it goes down, and so that i does not cry if the price hits 200.