if we are still in the bull run then this right now must be the mother of all bear traps...
This is on course towards being a 61.8% retrace. $610 was the 50% level, but there is abosolutely no previous market support at this level and no good reason for any significant market to play to step in here and put a floor in the market. This is Dump City. Next significant support level is $580 on Finex.
20th-21st June, we had the Australian Police BTC auction. What has happend in the run up to this 'event', and in the aftermath of it, all seems a bit familiar to the Nov 2015 DPR BTC Auction pump, and the subsequent dump that occurred just as soon as the auction was done.....I remember in 2013, that Bitcoin dumped down to 61.8% level, within a few 4hr candles, but made a full recovery within the next couple of weeks...but totally different market back then....there was the 'China craze' and perhaps more importantly, there was Willy bot on Gox (and his friend Markus), who just kept on scooping up BTC no matter what the price.....
.....what we have now, is 'the Halving', but "so fucking what!", quite frankly. Yeah sure, Double the mining difficulty, 'half' the BTC coming to market, and therefore the miners have been hoarding, deferring cashing in waiting on higher prices post Halving Pump....that prospect doesn't exactly whet my appetite for BTC...interestingly enough. Huobi, which lead the pump, is leading this dump. That is a pretty good suggestion that this is some of the miner's hoarded BTC coming to market. The likes of Finex and OKCoin Futures, keep wanting to bounce, but Huobi keeps saying nope, we are selling, and you will follow. A fucking traders nightmare having all these different wheels, all wanting to turn in different directions, never being sure which is going to win out.
I suspect BTC is going to find itself in another big range over the coming months. I think mid $500s will be the new floor...but I am always wrong, so it will probs be back down to $430 or something, which will be the *real* 61.8% retrace, and also the 'cost of production' price for the miners to keep the network running, which makes sense, hence, Halving Pump puts in new market floor which is the new cost of production for the commodity.