If you "read the market" correctly, you take money from someone else. If incorrect, someone takes money from you. This is why I don't really like commodity speculation; if you win it just means you're a coercive asshole
You also gotta remember that 100% of people on this board think they're smart enough to be on the 50% side who come out ahead. 50% of them will be wrong, and probably not be willing to admit in here on the forums.
The only way you can 100% make money is to have mined coins yourself, the older the better. Then you can sell to newer people at the bottom of the pyramid.
As a currency, bitcoin is just brilliant, revolutionary even, and I love to use it. As a commodity it has way too much in common with a Ponzi for me to touch it at this late point years after inception