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Best answer by Thomas Pornin in StackOverflow answered Oct 25 '10 at 12:14 and I agree 100%

The usual answer goes thus: what is the probability that a rogue asteroid crashes on Earth within the next second, obliterating civilization-as-we-know-it, and killing off a few billion people ? It can be argued that any unlucky event with a probability lower than that is not actually very important.

If we have a "perfect" hash function with output size n, and we have p messages to hash (individual message length is not important), then probability of collision is about p2/2n+1 (this is an approximation which is valid for "small" p, i.e. substantially smaller than 2n/2). For instance, with SHA-256 (n=256) and one billion messages (p=109) then the probability is about 4.3*10-60.

A mass-murderer space rock happens about once every 30 million years on average. This leads to a probability of such an event occurring in the next second to about 10-15. That's 45 orders of magnitude more probable than the SHA-256 collision. Briefly stated, if you find SHA-256 collisions scary then your priorities are wrong.

In a security setup, where an attacker gets to choose the messages which will be hashed, then the attacker may use substantially more than a billion messages; however, you will find that the attacker's success probability will still be vanishingly small. That's the whole point of using a hash function with a 256-bit output: so that risks of collision can be neglected.

Of course, all of the above assumes that SHA-256 is a "perfect" hash function, which is far from being proven. Still, SHA-256 seems quite robust.

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