Topic: This shows Putin got the costs of aggression wrong (Read 204 times)

I am guessing that Putin and Russia didn't send their best soldiers and equipment just yet. I really hope that Ukraine wins this war, but the longer it gets, the more serious soldiers are on the way.

The first ones that were sent ended up with food that expired in 2015 (there was a video of it) and that is not really the type of situation you would be in if you cared about the war. They fired some missiles, they killed some people, they took the lands they wanted to take and now they are going to just relax and keep the situation as it is. The thing they will want would be asking the new two lands and crime to be accepted and they will leave.

Everyday they are not given that, there is a whole miles long army marching everyday, one day they will eventually arrive and that is when things will go ugly. I am hoping that I am wrong, otherwise it will be nasty war all over again, and what we have seen so far would be like a street fight compared to what's coming.

Obviously this is true because if you look at Putin's Army initially, they were taking it calmly hoping that Ukraine will fearly surrender but they are now shocked and getting frustrated. That made them to start firing on civilians and destroying residential homes yet they sent. And yesterday, satellite images from US is showing lots of military tanks going towards the region of Ukraine


Swift banning is what broke the economy of Russia. Biden made this threat earlier and I think he got his aligns to cooperate in the series of sanction.


The speech of Zelensky was really touching to them and they have no choice than to fully give in to support. Although the EU have decided to sanction Russia. And giving the Ukraine application to EU speedy attention is just to show they are ready to take Russia economy down.

If he had kept the diplomacy talk on without invading, his stand would have been more respected and supported. At times, going into war isn't the best solution.

This madman will still get the support from oligarchs because in oligarchs there are also madpeople who have the same understanding as him, maybe that support will stop if there are massive protests in Russia who want Putin to step down (I don't really understand the political system there) or if they see this war going on longer so it will greatly affect their wealth and business, We have read a lot that Russia now has to fight against economic sanctions that make them suffer more.

When war occurs of course many unexpected things, what happens is usually bigger than planned, this is what creates long-term economic problems when a war occurs, there will be a lot of costs that must be diverted for war costs and whatever happens with war certainly brings problems serious and long term.

Ok, I think we are talking about different things. One is inflation of the currency respect to the products. That has been the norm and is considered desirable to avoid people hoarding money without investing.

Now, the devaluation of a currency is relative to the other currencies. Governments tend to use the lame excuse that by doing so they are favouring the exports and thus the economy of the country, as it is cheaper to buy their products and actually does improve the results of companies that export in real terms, not just in numbers.

These are different things. The fact is that currency loses value respective to other is due to lack of competitiveness of the economy and, just as you said, reduces the purchasing power of foreign products.

Macro would be the general effect on the people and companies - general reduction in their capacity to import, whereas a micro effect would be a company increasing their bottom line in local currency.

Same impression we have as I always think that Russia is a strong country so even if there are sanctions that will occur, they won't show that they are struggling even if deep inside it's already hurting them. We shouldn't feel bad about their soldiers because it was also their fault.

Without them the war aren't going to happen, they already know the consequences of their actions so now they are paying it. Ukraine on the other hand is now getting all the sympathy. from donations and to other stuffs. I am not sure if what you wish that Putin will stop will happen because like we said earlier, they are strong so they would fight till the end.

If general motors profits $1,000 for every 1 unit of automobile sold.

And the US dollar exchange rate with the british pound is 1:1.

Great britain could purchase 100 units of GM automobile which translates to $100,000 in profits.

If however the US dollar devalues and the exchange rates shifts to a 1:2 ratio in favor of the pound.

Great britain could purchase 200 units of GM automobile (at the same price they could buy 100 units at a 1:1 currency ratio) which translates to $200,000 in profits for GM.

This is a method of boosting GDP numbers for nations like china with high exports.

These gains come at the expense of reduced purchasing power for consumers.

There are trade offs involved and of course the conditions will not be as drastic as the ones mentioned.

Still an interesting topic for discussion/debate IMO.

What does macro vs micro have to do with it? This is currently implemented and utilized in economies of the world. Its standard policy.

People notice the difference? This has been ongoing for many years. Decades. No one noticed.  

This a great point and good question. This is exactly why supporting communisms and dictatorships is not only wrong but insane.  Who wants to live in a nation that has the power to force you to sell your foreign currencies, hurting you business because the government decided to go to war, which you had no control over what so ever.  I am amazed at the support Russia has inside.  Maybe much of it is simply due to being scared to speak out against?

I think we are mixing macro and micro economy here. Profits from companies are different from purchasing power and people do notice the difference in my view.

AFAIK many corporations define their profits in terms of units sold. For sake of discussion let's invent a random statistic: general motors reaps $1,000 in profit for every 1 unit of automobile sold. If the united states can devalue its native fiat currency by 100%. This enables them to sell 2 units for the price of 1, which might double their profits. This is one methodology behind currency devaluation being a worthwhile policy for nations with high exports.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, currency devaluation weakens the purchasing power of consumers.

While currency devaluation might appear good for exports and corporations, they can be bad for the purchasing power of individuals. And so they may represent a trade off where the strength of a currency is sacrificed for a better corporate balance sheet and perhaps better GDP stats.

As citizens who fall into the category of Non-Aligned countries, here they will never justify acts of war for any reason. I don't really understand everything, I just listen day by day to the current situation. That too from the US-controlled media according to its political needs. Despite the loopholes, Russia is experiencing a bank freeze, airports are closed and more has been mentioned. In the end, there was no other way but to end things with all the decisions that had been agreed upon. In the next 7 days, the aggression and resistance of the Ukrainian people and the military are still adamant that they will not give up what is rightfully theirs. Not much different from other countries that maintain a plot of land in front of a house that is sold to a factory. Once not still not, because what you have sold is difficult to get back.


In response to Russia's economic fiat which has now weakened in recent days, the session at the United Nations even when the Russian representatives spoke, all representatives of other countries chose to leave. So that the impact will continue to receive sanctions, criticism from various countries. Finally back to the US who will win and benefit, whether Ukraine loses or even Russia, the US is the one who has the main role.

This indeed may happen. And it can easily turn into a long term guerilla war until the point one of the following things happen:
* Ukraine is conquered
* Russian or Belorussian army makes the crucial mistake of attacking something belonging to NATO
* Either a "James Bond", either a "Claus von Stauffenberg" ends this

Unfortunately, my reading of this is that Putin may have told the Chinese that he has failed to secure a quick victory and has now to go into Godzilla mode on Ukrainian cities to seize control, as the Ukrainian army did somehow not bend to his delusion of being hailed as a liberator of shorts. This is very bad news and our leaders should works towards a halt and give a chance to diplomacy.

China has started to evacuate their people from Ukraine only today.
That may mean that Putin has told China that the war will not take longer than 4-5 days.

I think that Putin also greatly underestimated what Europe will do in the financial vs resources part of the war.
I honestly didn't think that Europe will become this united this fast (and I'm glad that I was wrong).

Agreed, at first, I didn't think economic sanctions would have much of an impact because, as far as we can tell, they are extremely powerful. However, this is only true for those armies that are currently suffering economically, and we can expect them to struggle as a result. I'm not sure if they'll be able to recover economically from their war with Ukraine because most countries have banned them. I am seeing a lot of assistance from other countries to Ukraine right now. I'm hoping that Putin will put a stop to this right now.

I think it already ended up badly? Like I was sure Putin was trusting of how strong their army was, but well, results show that it really wasn't any stronger. From what I read about how it was described, it was something like a paper tiger. Putin probably overestimated his side and underestimated the other side. Pretty sure this war has brought nothing but losses to Putin's side probably contrary to his earlier expectations for the results of his assault.

Russia is probably gonna experience a huge shift after this, and most likely in a negative way.

Putin was pretty much expecting Ukraine to surrender 48 hours after the invasion.He's simply delusional at this point.
This didn't happen,now Putin will get into the downward spiral of war-sending more troops into Ukraine,which will make the war even more expensive for Russia.Some guy was saying that Russia is losing 20 billion dollars per day for every day in which the war continues.
What is overwhelming for me is that the Putin/Kremlin propaganda continues in my country(even though my country is a member of EU and NATO).Many people in my country still believe that Putin is fighting the evil Ukrainian nazis and that Putin is the good guy in this conflict.I guess that the paid trolls,followed by some delusional fanatic supporters of Putin are doing a good job with their propaganda.

Think about a nation that has been sanctioned, trades cut off, can't use exchanges, can't use other foreign money, 40%+ of their central banks money got frozen, all the rich people have their money frozen, all the flights cancelled, taken out of swift, and plenty other economical sanctions in the middle of a war, and look at some other nations like Argentina and turkey... Sometimes I wonder why that is, like Turkey for example lost a lot more value in their fiat in 2021, then Russia did during this war, maybe Russia will do worse over time, but Turkey did that like in a week.

I do not understand how Russia could still stand, I was expecting 1 dollar to become 500+ ruble by this time. Putin will use this wrongfully to show how "strong" they are, I am afraid it will end up badly.

Maybe from this Putin will think about that they are totally downplaying things and think about they dominate this war and for sure the people doing business on their country will feel this heavy sanctions imposed to them by other government in parts of the world and slowly they can see their economy collapsing little by little. Maybe this is the reason why there's a peace talk happening since maybe some of there government official already see this alerting and might there country will put in more high risk situation if more countries will stop dealing with their products and other more coming from Russian country.

 When even the Swiss decides to take a side, you know you are not doing well. These are the people who hided the money for Nazi generals and so forth,  NAZI, imagine how weird it must be to be Putin and know that people who hided money for Nazis are not doing it for you. I mean even though I hate Putin and he is a horrible human being, I would easily assume that what Nazis did was much much much worse. In the end, Putin will put Russia in financial ruin, all the oligarchs will end up doing something about it, and Putin will be no longer. Thats how Russia works, you can do whatever you want as long as the rich are with you, the moment oligarchs turn their back on you, things won't be easy.

Wait, are you intentionally saying it OTAN? It should be NATO.

But I strongly believe that Putin knows the possible aftermath of this decision. I don't think he goes to war without planning and knowing the consequences of his actions. But the ones who are losing in this battle is the people in both countries, they are the ones directly experiencing the impact of this aggression. Putin is in a safe place but how about its people?

That is right, there will be a very high price to pay and achieving the long term strategic target of controlling and avoiding permanent foreign presence in the Black sea is very dubious.

Now, this is not a childish debate, Putin like all leaders know perfectly that you need money and a strong economy to sustain your stance in the world and, to be honest, a blow to Russian economy might make him loose the supports he currently enjoys at home. This is no joke and Putin is not a fool nor a madman - at least in the conventional sense.

On regards to Ukraine joining the NATO (OTAN in Spanish), I personally think there is much work to be done before they can become a member safely. On the end, OTAN has to be about making all members be safer and more influential.


That is not a school of thought properly, but the usual lame excuse of governments that fail to remain competitive.

It was a common one and expected one by the economics persons.When the market was stock or begins to flows down.Most of the country do this,same was happened in 2008 world economic crisis and during the World War 2.So Russia is not a new to this strategy,they just following the old strategy to prevent their country economy.

They wouldnt really be having any other choice and its true that they do know on what would be the consequences if they wouldnt really be following on whats been said by Putin and now is the time on where he do need

up some help.If they do try to jump off the ship? For sure they do know on what would happen next once this war is over or been settled down.So now is the time for them to show up that support.

War does have that economic effects and this is the way on at least avoiding that free fall.

Your don't need to be an expert to understand that Russia will get zero benefits from this war. Giant economic loss, international isolation, no military benefits even if they succeed. Even domestically it looks bad, as people protest.

Its quite childlike of us to debate about whether Putin knows the cost of aggression or not. Here's a former KGB agent who has served as the head of state for one of the most powerful and unpredictable states of the world. That too in a time of falling from glory. That man definitely knows what he wants to do. Right now, it was bullying Zelinsky into giving up on his ambitions to make Ukraine join NATO. Who thinks this wouldn't hurt the ego?

This war is a powerful man's reaction to being miffed by a smaller nation. That too in the belief that they don't want NATO at their doorstep. War is terrible but I do hope that world's people and twitterati would have the same reaction for all the other wars that have been inflicted by the so-called "democracies" for the last over two decades.

Its amazing how the cold war perceptions still live on after three decades.

The aftermath of this war will bring out a lifelong effect to the people in Russia, and this is all because of Putin who was totally driven with anger and wrong disposition this time. And with this latest update: The Russian finance ministry and the central bank plan to order domestic exporting companies to sell 80% of their foreign exchange revenues from Feb. 28, they both said in a statement on Monday. This may not be the last resort of Putin, the worst is yet to come. I guess this will force the economy of Russia to shut down in the end.:  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/russian-finmin-central-bank-to-order-exporters-to-sell-80-of-forex-revenues/articleshow/89889767.cms

Isnt that sanctioning USD too? These oligarchs prefer to used USD for ease of transactions.

Russia is cut of from Swift and the oligarchs will be affected soon because they are the ones using the bank transactions from other countries. Which if these oligarchs are tracked they will also be sanctioned with frozen bank accounts. Oligarchs with frozen bank account is worse.

This war is getting crazy they better be just buying BTC instead, if they are going to make transaction censored proof.

We have reports on russia's stock market taking hits:


It is hard to find known sources, who are willing to stake their reputations on publishing some of the other claims being made on russian's economy however.

This appears to be a good test for the "devaluing currency is good for exports" school of economic thought.

So, the Oligarchs are laughing at having to buy the marvellous rubles with their weak and poor USD and Euros? R u sure?
So Putin and friends are just going to use bitcoin and bypass all the modern world banking system?
An lastly, he and his friends are counting on China helping them... for free? Have you seen China do any favours to anyone for free?

Nope, propaganda and social media can say whatever, but the markets put their money only where there's something to win and that is not the ruble.

But on the other hand, Russian elites laugh at the sanctions, which can actually make it easier for them to move freely using cryptocurrencies. they were cut off from Swify and other sanctions followed for Russia actions. However, there are positive points for Russia to use Cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and transactions without the need for capitalist intervention, both Russian banks blocked by Francis, UK, and several local banks which are currently closed after the Russian invasion.

Here too, the digital yuan is ready to be a back-up for Russia in carrying out future economic movements and is ready to encourage Russia to continue fighting NATO countries that try to criticize Russia's actions. For one thing, the mainstream media can distort the facts, because we don't really know what's really going on between Russia and Ukraine. There is even video footage engineered by the President of Ukraine and the BBC to carry out propaganda.

Russian media is also closed by Facebook, as a sanction, criticism of NATO countries also does not stop in the name of humanity. I wonder if this context extends to Palestine, where Israel is still allowed by the UN to carry out its heinous acts. If it is true that NATO and UN members want to stop the invasion, they should apologize to the 2x24 media that the US foster child, Israel, should take precedence over criticizing Russia's actions. Where does the actual reaction take place? Or just the politics of diversion of issues? fry Russia, then put humanity first in Palestine just sinking?

Russian government will face a heavy consequence for the war. EU has already announced to cut Russia off from the Swify network, crase all assets of Russian central bank that is help with ECB, ban Russia Oligarchs from carrying out businesses in EU.

Putin has gone mad and Russian common people will pay the price  a lot of foreign companies will leave Russia for good. The consequence will be severe for Russia.

The Russian oligarchs has no choice if I'm not mistaken. So they should follow Putin no matter what because they know the consequences of going against him specially right now that he is flexing his muscle. I know it's going to be a hard decision for them, but you have to think, where do this oligarchs get their money from? what is their sources? Yeah they have been plundering Russia more many years now with Putin's backing them up. So they have to support him right now in his war.

I guess their rights as a free enterprise in a former communist country only lasts for as long as Russia is experiencing peace, when will people learn that together as the masses we have the power prevent this kind of events from happening and having to save lives in an unnecessary death through war. The only good thing about this solution of Kremlin is that it's a temporary fix to their problem.

This is 5 hours ago:


This means that Putin is forcing Russian companies to buy rubles to avoid a free fall. This is normally done by central banks when their currency is under attack - the problem being is that when you need all your treasury to keep the invasion running, you cannot protect your currency. I wonder if the Russian oligarchs are having second thoughts on supporting this guy any longer?

https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1498191397245042690

EDITED to add: I just got this from my broker