According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?
It's statistic errors. In may 2010 we got one guy why bought everything up to $30, and he already left the market.
In Jan 2011 there come another fanatic, but he already gave out his money to miners also.
Bitcoin network doesn't need such a security right now, that's why bitcoin rate should be significantly lower then it is now.
According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1
arsen, have you ever traded stocks?!
under 1$ - that would make the whole bitcoin economy worth < 8.000.000$ ..
you know - only silkroad would probably be worth > 1.000.000$ if traded on stock markets.
further 1$ is UNDER the price of production of bitcoin, so i guess most miner would stop at 1$
even further: there are probably buy order for more than 8.000.000 bitcoin at 1$ - it's just 8 million to own ALL bitcoin.
... estimates say the mining industry only is worth 16.7 million
conclusion: your pessism badly lacks fundamentals ^^
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