TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side

notme

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 15, 2013, 01:55:44 PM

Since some post were about me, let me clarify some aspects: I can make a decent profit if there's at least 3% difference between two local
minimums / maximums, considering a 0.8% (2x 0.4%) commission and adequate volume (which has been a problem lately on Gox).
But my biggest problem is catching the peaks and bottoms while I am not sleeping, because guessing the precise values for the peaks and
bottoms is bloody difficult for me (to place an order overnight). I moved to Gox from Bitstamp because of the higher volumes, but in the
meantime that advantage of Gox has diminished. I also can't do delayed arbitrage anymore (obviously), so I might move back to Bitstamp.
It was easy to reach their 0.5% (2x 0.25%) commission, on Gox to reach 0.6% (2x 0.3%) I'd have to almost double my trades, can't do that yet.

Short term trading would be much easier if we didn't need sleep. But in light of the reality of my human form, and the fact I don't want to spend all day on the computer, I trade on longer time frames Tongue

.

vokain

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to each their own!

Tzupy

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Since some post were about me, let me clarify some aspects: I can make a decent profit if there's at least 3% difference between two local
minimums / maximums, considering a 0.8% (2x 0.4%) commission and adequate volume (which has been a problem lately on Gox).
But my biggest problem is catching the peaks and bottoms while I am not sleeping, because guessing the precise values for the peaks and
bottoms is bloody difficult for me (to place an order overnight). I moved to Gox from Bitstamp because of the higher volumes, but in the
meantime that advantage of Gox has diminished. I also can't do delayed arbitrage anymore (obviously), so I might move back to Bitstamp.
It was easy to reach their 0.5% (2x 0.25%) commission, on Gox to reach 0.6% (2x 0.3%) I'd have to almost double my trades, can't do that yet.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:21:47 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:20:41 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:18:24 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Bitstamp has similar fees.

That's why I love btc-e.

vokain

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these people trying to make money off wiggles should just look into being a local btc dealer :p

notme

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:20:41 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:18:24 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Bitstamp has similar fees.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:18:24 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Anyway the 2% are just supposed a minimal profit target, the average is much higher since if a trade goes for you and your target isn't just gain based but also volume/time based.
Of course it depends on the general strategy, most traditional TA doesn't work with that, that is right.

But then most traditional TA doesn't work for me neither on a longer scale.

notme

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

ElectricMucus

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Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

notme

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Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 12:51:57 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 12:35:22 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 03:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

Exactly, he will either figure that out or go broke and disappear.

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 12:55:39 PM

1.02^100=7.245

Okay, let's take a 2% movement. First, we subtract 0.6% commission from both sides of the trade. Now we have a 0.8% movement. Let's assume for a second he calls 100 right in a row:
1.008^100 = 2.21847

Not bad. Now let's assume he takes a loss on 1/3 of his trades instead of being perfect.

1.008^67*1.008^-33=1.311167

31% is still decent, depending on the time frame.

But wait, that is wrong because you don't lose 0.8% when it goes against you. You lose the commission too, so you lose the full 2%.

Let's try 1/3 failure again.

1.008^67*1.02^-33=0.88726

Well shit.

What if he is 70% successful?

1.008^70*1.02^-30=0.964344249

Damn. Maybe if he is right 3/4 of the time he can turn a profit.

1.008^75*1.02^-25=1.107989421928713

Yay!

But can he beat 72% correct that is needed to break even?

And what happens if a big move happens in the wrong direction because the short term indicators are still indicating the correction when it ends and the next large major wave up/down happens?

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 12:51:57 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 12:35:22 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 03:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

1.02^100=7.245

vokain

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Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 12:35:22 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 03:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

notme

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Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 03:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

Hyena

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In 10 day charts the pSARs don't have much meaning in our ultra volatile market. In 5 months chart the current price has to drop down to 100$ in mtGox for the pSAR to flip again. That may or may not happen but this topic wouldn't make any sense if we updated it so often as the 10 days chart would suggest Cheesy

EDIT:
Also, the price is still on the upper side of the Bollinger Band which means that this is indeed an uptrend that we are having currently Cheesy

and it can continue as long as the price stays in the upper side of the band (somehow obvious but still worth mentioning).

vokain

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that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy

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I made no claim, just acknowledged the facts. If you look at the 10 days chart (short term), you should understand.
I agreed with you that long term (2-3 months), it looks up, so you don't have a valid reason to get pissed off at me.

vokain

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 15, 2013, 02:14:58 AM

Long term yes, but short term is a different story, it points downwards, together with other indicators.

Really. Firstly, what's your definition of short term?
And then, can you please sufficiently elaborate on your claim? Otherwise it's just noise amongst the other guys (more often than not with relatively new accounts) doing the exact same thing you're doing.

Tzupy

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Long term yes, but short term is a different story, it points downwards, together with other indicators.

vokain

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Hyena

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Seems that this topic is appropriate again Cheesy

let's see if we can get 2 more dots supporting the new uptrend and then it might be some serious indicator for bulls. However, it can also be the case that from now on bitcoin's price goes sideways and therefore pSAR isn't much of a use.

bitcon

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Quote from: MAbtc on July 10, 2013, 05:45:26 PM

This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

no it hit 65 before that also. that was the 2nd time.

lucif

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Clown prophet

Kupsi

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Quote from: adamstgBit on August 01, 2013, 04:48:21 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on August 01, 2013, 04:44:53 PM

Quote from: Kupsi on August 01, 2013, 04:00:32 PM

Mars, April and May last year.

Anyone said Mars? I though we are going to da Moon...

Kupsi is french?

LOL, Norwegian Cheesy

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Quote from: MoreFun on August 01, 2013, 04:44:53 PM

Quote from: Kupsi on August 01, 2013, 04:00:32 PM

Mars, April and May last year.

Anyone said Mars? I though we are going to da Moon...

Kupsi is french?

MoreFun

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WePower.red

Quote from: Kupsi on August 01, 2013, 04:00:32 PM

Mars, April and May last year.

Anyone said Mars? I though we are going to da Moon...

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Quote from: Kazu on August 01, 2013, 02:16:00 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on August 01, 2013, 02:13:37 PM

Quote from: Kazu on August 01, 2013, 02:10:18 PM

When has Bitcoin ever had a sideways market, except on like the hourly chart or something?

it was crazy stable at 5$ for like 3 or 4 months

but that was because pirate40 was keeping prices low, as he sold other people's bitcoins.

When was that?

Mars, April and May last year.

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Quote from: adamstgBit on August 01, 2013, 02:13:37 PM

Quote from: Kazu on August 01, 2013, 02:10:18 PM

When has Bitcoin ever had a sideways market, except on like the hourly chart or something?

it was crazy stable at 5$ for like 3 or 4 months

but that was because pirate40 was keeping prices low, as he sold other people's bitcoins.

When was that?

adamstgBit

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Quote from: Kazu on August 01, 2013, 02:10:18 PM

When has Bitcoin ever had a sideways market, except on like the hourly chart or something?

it was crazy stable at 5$ for like 3 or 4 months

but that was because pirate40 was keeping prices low, as he sold other people's bitcoins.

Kazu

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When has Bitcoin ever had a sideways market, except on like the hourly chart or something?

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

You'll know before it flips that it's about to flip. Notice how the candle nearly or just touches the dot before flipping? We are quite a ways away from it right now. We would have to drop $20+ to make it flip.

yayayo

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PSAR also produces many false signals. It is useful for trending markets but not for prolonged periods of sideways movement.

I would never use PSAR as the only indicator.

But I'm not trading Bitcoin at all. Just sayin'.

ya.ya.yo!

vokain

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willpower v my complacency in ignorance hmmm
I'll just wait til i install an SSD on this laptop so i can run a VM of windows and run sierra chart. i think i can do custom indicators in there

Kazu

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Quote from: vokain on July 31, 2013, 11:27:32 AM

oh sorry, i didn't read your last sentence of that message haha

You could try calculating it out manually if you have too much time.

AO = SMA(median price, 5)-SMA(median price, 34)
AC = AO-SMA(AO, 5)

vokain

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oh sorry, i didn't read your last sentence of that message haha

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Quote from: vokain on July 31, 2013, 11:14:10 AM

Quote from: Kazu on July 31, 2013, 11:09:55 AM

IMO parabolic sar has good open-position signals, but not very good close-position signals. The closes are always tremendously late. Its better to use something like the AC to filter. When AC and SAR both agree, then trade. When the AC starts indicating the opposite for at least 2 bars (I usually do it on the first bar just to be safe) close position.

Been working fairly OK (at least, by my standards) on the EUR/USD, no idea how it'd look on BTC/USD.

how do i use this indicator on bitcoin?

I really dont know. There should be some way of importing BTC/USD into metatrader, but as far as I know there really isnt.

vokain

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Quote from: Kazu on July 31, 2013, 11:09:55 AM

IMO parabolic sar has good open-position signals, but not very good close-position signals. The closes are always tremendously late. Its better to use something like the AC to filter. When AC and SAR both agree, then trade. When the AC starts indicating the opposite for at least 2 bars (I usually do it on the first bar just to be safe) close position.

Been working fairly OK (at least, by my standards) on the EUR/USD, no idea how it'd look on BTC/USD.

how do i use this indicator on bitcoin?

Kazu

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IMO parabolic sar has good open-position signals, but not very good close-position signals. The closes are always tremendously late. Its better to use something like the AC to filter. When AC and SAR both agree, then trade. When the AC starts indicating the opposite for at least 2 bars (I usually do it on the first bar just to be safe) close position.

Been working fairly OK (at least, by my standards) on the EUR/USD, no idea how it'd look on BTC/USD.

razibuzouzou

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coinorama.net

Interesting metric indeed, the Wikipedia describes it well.
Thumbs up to OP for spotting the reversal

vokain

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wow what a cool indicator

Quote from: Hyena on July 31, 2013, 02:17:27 AM

Because this thread got quite a few pSAR haters, I'm making this final post to rest my case Cheesy

. Call me necromancer if you want, I think they are the coolest mage-type character class anyway. However, to speculate a little bit further, would it make sense to sell soon because we've been on a relatively long uptrend for a while now and the pSAR could soon flip again as it normally does?

Perhaps? just to risk off for a bit? but i will wait until the PSAR actually flips

Hyena

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Because this thread got quite a few pSAR haters, I'm making this final post to rest my case Cheesy

. Call me necromancer if you want, I think they are the coolest mage-type character class anyway. However, to speculate a little bit further, would it make sense to sell soon because we've been on a relatively long uptrend for a while now and the pSAR could soon flip again as it normally does?

Hyena

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Looks like we have a third dot on parabolic SAR supporting the new trend. I sure did right to buy in at 85. Now gotta spend it fast to lock the profit Cheesy

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Quote from: dree12 on July 11, 2013, 09:59:48 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 11, 2013, 09:47:37 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on July 11, 2013, 09:38:54 AM

JUST SAYIN'

On this chart alone I count 4 failures.
Two in May one in August and one in October. The October one could could have been profited from with the right exit strategy, but the ones in the bull market and the August one would have been absolutely disastrous independently of strategy.

4 failures < 9 successes, no?

I can't argue with that. But it was my own fault it's actually 5 failures.

The point is psar works well with decisive movements and I can't see that right now. The bears have exhausted themselves last week and the bulls aren't confident enough.

Hyena

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ok I understand some dudes desperately want to show that parabolic SAR has its failures and should therefore be dropped as an indicator for any serious trading.

And I agree, pSAR should not be taken as one and only truth. Having it combined with some other indicators is a whole new story though. All in all it seems to me that the bitcoin price is at least having a small break from the much predicted general downtrend.

dree12

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 11, 2013, 09:47:37 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on July 11, 2013, 09:38:54 AM

JUST SAYIN'

On this chart alone I count 4 failures.
Two in May one in August and one in October. The October one could could have been profited from with the right exit strategy, but the ones in the bull market and the August one would have been absolutely disastrous independently of strategy.

4 failures < 9 successes, no?

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: derpinheimer on July 11, 2013, 09:38:54 AM

JUST SAYIN'

On this chart alone I count 4 failures.
Two in May one in August and one in October. The October one could could have been profited from with the right exit strategy, but the ones in the bull market and the August one would have been absolutely disastrous independently of strategy.

lucas.sev

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Quote from: derpinheimer on July 11, 2013, 09:38:54 AM

JUST SAYIN'

The blob appears at the end of the day, if you followed what blob said at the end of each day you would have serious losses.

derpinheimer

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JUST SAYIN'

Hyena

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Each time BTC charts start to look more erect it gets wet dreams and premature ejaculation. Let's face it, Bitcoin is just in its puberty right now and this is what you get.

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Quote from: tutkarz on July 11, 2013, 07:43:20 AM

Its somehow funny. People are using bitcoin buying it and selling while moving money around the world and some people here are sitting and creating monsters out of the charts fighting each other who is right and who arnt while trying to predict the price. Bitcoin is volatile because it is used. It would be dead if there was no transactions with it and its the opposite actually.

Just try to imagine if someone simply wants to transfer money from usa to china using bitcoins for his order payment for few mils of dollars, how it affect price and what is going on here while people are announcing end of bitcoin or rocket launches when one guy just buys and sells the same bitcoins after few days finalizing his transaction. Maybe he doesnt even know about this forum and wants simply to send his money somewhere else ...

Bitcoin is volatile because 90% of this use you are mentioning is speculation.

tutkarz

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Its somehow funny. People are using bitcoin buying it and selling while moving money around the world and some people here are sitting and creating monsters out of the charts fighting each other who is right and who arnt while trying to predict the price. Bitcoin is volatile because it is used. It would be dead if there was no transactions with it and its the opposite actually.

Just try to imagine if someone simply wants to transfer money from usa to china using bitcoins for his order payment for few mils of dollars, how it affect price and what is going on here while people are announcing end of bitcoin or rocket launches when one guy just buys and sells the same bitcoins after few days finalizing his transaction. Maybe he doesnt even know about this forum and wants simply to send his money somewhere else ...

Hyena

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Anyway, my point has been that market is unpredictable. This means that the thing that anyone would not predict right now is that price stays above 80$ and never falls down to 30$ as so many predict.

Let's look it that way: in 2011 there were very few people in this whole bitcoin business compared to today. Therefore it took more time for the price to find its after-crash bottom. Now the rate of just about everything bitcoin related happening out there is surely much higher than in 2011. And from here we can deduce that the after-bubble downtrend may end up sooner than in 2011.

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Quote from: MAbtc on July 10, 2013, 05:45:26 PM

This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

there's nothing to it, its not a matter of the graph. it just dropped a whole bunch because of gox doubt, then lurches up or down depending on the updates. look at the service section, after all the whining about how gox is bankrupt and ponziing everyone, now there's whining about how gox delays transfers INTO gox...

bears, bears, less of a case than penis in lesbos island

Hyena

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And we have another dot supporting the new uptrend.. It could also be only very slight uptrend, meaning that the price stays in the range of 80 - 90 for some time. If we bought in at the lower side of current Bollinger band (80$) then time to sell would be near the price of 100$ or maybe 90$ to be more realistic.

Kazu

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Parabolic Sar is good a lot of the time, but much of the time its an epic fail.

Personally I'd say it should probably be in most strategies, but the sar in and of itself does not constitute a strategy. Sar will tell you potential direction switch, you need another indicator to confirm the direction switch and ensure that it will move far enough in that direction.

nrd525

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The google trends chart looks a lot worse if you use the more precise scale of the past 90 days or past year. Basically we're sitting at around 2-4 times the level in Jan/Feb. Which would make it worth $25-$55.

notme

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More on PSAR:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/psar-is-the-holy-grail-of-indicators-59971

OP didn't set a custom date for the chart though, so it is showing current prices

xorglub

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It did flip at $166 too...

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 10, 2013, 05:53:04 PM

Quote from: Hyena on July 10, 2013, 05:50:14 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on July 10, 2013, 05:45:26 PM

This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

Well it depends on what scale downtrend we're speaking of. I'd say we're going to see some green candles for a while. After that I have no idea what happens but if you're planning to buy some SR goods in the next couple of weeks then it seems like a good time to buy some coins to be spent soon Cheesy

What also could happen is a smack-down today in which case psar would go back where it was.

I'm not arguing that Cheesy

, it's a gamble anyway.

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Quote from: Hyena on July 10, 2013, 05:50:14 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on July 10, 2013, 05:45:26 PM

This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

Well it depends on what scale downtrend we're speaking of. I'd say we're going to see some green candles for a while. After that I have no idea what happens but if you're planning to buy some SR goods in the next couple of weeks then it seems like a good time to buy some coins to be spent soon Cheesy

What also could happen is a smack-down today in which case psar would go back where it was.

Hyena

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Quote from: MAbtc on July 10, 2013, 05:45:26 PM

This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

Well it depends on what scale downtrend we're speaking of. I'd say we're going to see some green candles for a while. After that I have no idea what happens but if you're planning to buy some SR goods in the next couple of weeks then it seems like a good time to buy some coins to be spent soon Cheesy

ElectricMucus

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There ought to be bounces in the search engine interest too. And it doesn't lead the price, it follows it.

And if anything the more people compare this to 2011 the more similar it will be. I'm not saying it will happen and open for the possibility of something else, but should it occur I'm fine with it.
What also could happen is a downtrend in the excess of 2011 which would take several years. Not that I think it is likely but I'm open for the possibility.

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This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

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Quote from: Hyena on July 10, 2013, 05:29:55 PM

Yes. However, it concerns me that everyone is thinking that the downtrend will be pretty much a copy paste from the last big bubble. Therefore the downtrend might end earlier than people think. There seems to be increasing number of bitcoin related news lately and google trends for BITCOIN starts to take off again (http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q).

also, number of new members and posts is stabelizing/going up again

Hyena

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1015

Yes. However, it concerns me that everyone is thinking that the downtrend will be pretty much a copy paste from the last big bubble. Therefore the downtrend might end earlier than people think. There seems to be increasing number of bitcoin related news lately and google trends for BITCOIN starts to take off again (http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q).

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Never use parabolic sar as a complete trading system.

You see it failing at the beginning of the chart during the uptrend. The same thing could happen now.

Hyena

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1015

Pic related. I hereby speculate that at least a short term rally is coming and we might see ~~triple~~ some serious digits again.

Edit on August 14, 2013:

Original content from July 10, 2013:

Topic: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side (Read 7192 times)