Topic: Timely Halving Event and Bitcoin ETF a Positive Bombshell (Read 313 times)

@cryptomaniac_xxx. The ordinary me speculates that there will be a pump after approval similar to what everyone is speculating. This is expected. However, the skeptical me thinks that we might witness some traders who will sell the news and dump on everyone's faces hehehe. These traders will certainly be the same people who will buy again and pump the market after everyone has panicked hehehehe. 

Or shall we say that BlackRock has big influence, a billion dollar hedge fund management that not even SEC can disapproved their application as it could have ramifications for them and the US government.

Close to saying that they are now under pressure to approved it. But nevertheless, it will give the market flowing with money thus fueling the next bull run.

So let's see it next year, this could give the market as close as to the last all time high of $69k, before the halving and then expect a massive rally 2024 edition. 

you are right that these two factors will only be beneficial. But the forecast of 100k per bitcoin looks very optimistic at the moment, this means that a lot of money needs to be pumped into the market and it will only be used to purchase the main coin. Now it is clear that many are accumulating their reserves are in the BTC and at the same moment it is interesting how the rest of the alta will react if the BTC grows.
We will find out very soon how the market will behave.

You mentioned the adoption of blockchain technology twice. It seems this was your favourite among all huh, hehe. I think that when the people adopt the crypto, it's also the same as they adopt the blockchain. But if we are going to be more specific, it was the devs are mainly the ones who have a deep interest with it. Don't worry, there are still lots of them. We can only see how many cryptos there are now. It was only suck that many of these projects are junks and scams.

It's also funny and seem stupid at the same time that many people are still after them. They think it's a gateway for them to get rich easily. It is still possible though if they are very lucky.

The increasing price of bitcoin is evident that as four years ago halving take place so same will happen in coming year and it extends surety about halving as a consequence of which the believe on bitcoin is proliferating more.

ETF approval will soon happen and it will put more positive impacts on bitcoin price because the effect of halving is so great so if fortunately ETF approval take place then may be we go ahead from 100k$.
 
People are accepting bitcoin more and more and everyone is in Struggle to accumulate money and invest it into bitcoin so if halving take place and soon the news about ETF approval arises then people in no time will become rich people if they have bought Bitcoin during right condition in right cost.

Arguments on the date when an ETF will be approved might be over. I reckon Blackrock's amendment and agreement on the SEC's demand for cash creation model assures that their application will be approved.

Congratulations, bitcoin might have the first spot ETF on January 15, 2024, Blackrock's next deadline.



Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, has yielded to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s preference for the cash creation model, instead of the in-kind model, for its spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

The asset manager filed an amendment to its spot bitcoin ETF filing on Monday. The amendment details that Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust issues shares in baskets of 40,000 or integral multiples thereof, noting that “Baskets may be redeemed by the Trust in exchange for the cash proceeds from selling the amount of bitcoin corresponding to their redemption value.”

Source https://news.bitcoin.com/secs-preference-prevails-blackrock-adopts-cash-model-for-spot-bitcoin-etf/

Either way, both are significant in the growth of bitcoin adoption and its market performance.
Let us be grateful that we have these events that can contribute to its increasing presence in the market.
And with the combination of these two, we will see a very positive impact on its market.
So I won't choose only one, the more events the better, right? Small events or happenings can be vital in this fast growing market.

I don't agree with this. Bitcoin halving increases the demand for Bitcoin while the supply decreases. This means the price always goes up because more people want it. When a quality product is being sought after in the market it's value appreciates. That is why a lot of people believe we might see another Bitcoin ATH. Bitcoin doesn't need ETF approval to go above 60k before.

The SEC's approval to me will only create a short-term increase in the price of Bitcoin. After the announcement of the approval, there would be a surge because many people will buy, and even people who didn't plan on buying will buy because they will hear a lot of things, but after a while, the price will go down again.

The price of Bitcoin is not why I want Bitcoin ETF approval, I want it because it would boost Bitcoin adoption. It can gain more popularity and more trust.

$48k is a pretty high price, now that Bitcoin is still keeping its price in the $43k-$44k area.ini would be a strong indication that the price will be higher than it is now if it is able to hold up.
Many speculations say that the beginning of the year will touch the price of $50k and then pass the last ATH price of 2021.

But it should be noted that corrections are also bound to occur, and such corrections are normal market conditions to make the market stronger and gather volume for higher prices.

It is no joke, these two things could happen around similar times, and that's going to be something insane. I am not saying that it should not be something that will be all that confusing, but we should consider the situation as valid as it could get, I believe its going to be something special. I know that both may not happen at the same time, and in fact ETF may not even get approved, and either postponed or even outright rejected which is a very slim chance, they already postponed and asked for more details, so it means they are not rejecting, but another postpone could very well happen. BUT! if they do happen around the same time, its going to be crazy in crypto world without a doubt

Institutions that are aiming to have an ETF approved will have definitely started buying off (OTC) and on-market. It would be naïve to think that institutions hold nothing at the moment and won't actually start buying until the ETF is approved. I think that's being oblivious as to why these institutions are where they are to begin with, because of how intelligently that make their investments and manage their money.

Yes, they may buy more after the approval (if it's approved) however, I would doubt they will do it from the spot market, and that they wouldn't take an opportunity that would allow them to get it at a lower price.

Miners is always selling part of their profit via OTC to institutional traders that wants to enter. This the reason why institutional traders can accumulate huge amount of Bitcoin without resulting a huge price impact to the market due to the volume of their purchase.

Miners is indeed will accumulate lesser with their mining profit that’s why there will less sell pressure from them to make institutional trade to be force on buying on exchange to affect the market price significantly.

with the supply getting this low that miners can only mine 3BTC, it has got to have more effect in the market while the institutions are scooping every coin they get for their ETF. and miners will not just sell the coins for low price, they are also eyeing to mke a huge profit because they know when the market couldn't sustain the anymore price will also go down making the mining not so profitable after it. this is why the speculations pf BTC reaches up to 200K, i think this is very possible.

Your opinion about the impact of the halving on the increase in Bitcoin prices is quite reasonable. Bitcoin prices are also influenced by several factors including market sentiment, adoption of blockchain technology and perhaps many more. Regulations in various countries are also a significant factor that can influence prices. Additionally, developments in blockchain technology and new projects bringing innovation can also influence the perception and value of bitcoin.

I would doubt if the Institutional money is in Bitcoin yet, it will only start if and when the Spot ETF's
are approved, which means the SEC approves the relevant institutions to offer a Bitcoin Spot ETF,
which in turn means that when their clients decide they want to buy into the ETF the institution has
to actually but Bitcoin to cover the clients request. None of this has happened yet [officially]

By officially I mean that "maybe" some of the institutions are buying already ?

Generally everyone is optimistic ATM if not only for the halving but also for an ETF approval and if both
land together in the same year [2024] it will indeed be a bombshell.

It's possible that the institution money is already in. It's also possible that we are not just going "straight up".

Everyone is very optimistic at the moment...when everyone is past "oh wow, it's growing, should I buy?" and at the stage of "yes it should keep going up" then I get skeptical.

I fully believe in the post-halving effects, and I believe that once the excess holders (US holding silkroad, Mtgox repayments) are also removed from the public market (if OTC haven't already removed them), then we will see growth. Between now and then, I feel something will be coming to haunt leveraged traders and also those who are inexperienced, too optimistic, and who can be easily shaken out.

And maybe it's how the market works, last year, lowest low of $15,500 and then we have bounce back from this year. And so as pre-halving price, we might see close to $50k or even higher. And then we have this noise behind that could also be one of the factor why we are in the bull market market already.

Just imagine what it can really bring if the timely approval is right or before the actual halving, going to be a huge influx of institutional money and we could witness a big bull run in 2024-2025 and it could lead the price to a new all time high of 6 digits at least.

The rise in the coming days may give a hint that approval will occur, so I do not expect it to happen. We can still touch $48,000 before the beginning of next year, but current trading volumes are not sufficient for that, so we will most likely reach it next week.
I see that this rise is confirmation of the long-term bottom for next year, which will be $30,000.

Of course, this will be a tremendous FOMO when the Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved before January 10, 2024.
To see how the effect of the news is, Bitcoin immediately rises and breaks $43 easily and still continues to break $44k and the nearest resistance.



If this continues, Bitcoin looks set to touch $45k before the end of the month.
That 150% increase would be a strong claim if the ETF is actually approved before January 10, 2024,
but if after that date the Bitcoin Spot ETF has not been approved, then it should be prepared to free fall and touch the floor price again.

Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz now is saying spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved before January 10 2024.  And it will start trading 6 to 8 weeks after the approval.

He says Bitcoin up 150% on this year and it is because of inflation coming down.  https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/19/crypto-stocks-are-trading-almost-like-a-mania-says-galaxy-digitals-michael-novogratz.html

There's going to be a the halving event for sure and also the bitcoin ETF is another thing entirely which they were both all independent on each other, there's the expectation of having bitcoin halving every four years interval and also the alone is a major shake on the market price because it is concerned about the market demands and supplies, ETF is another factors entirely outside the bitcoin network, the news on this activity is another concern fornthe people to watch on how this will affect the market.

The halving has always come to play in all circles and after some months, the bull run appears. OP, it is the halving that leads to the bull run. Since the bull run will definitely come, there must be an event or FUD that must make bitcoin price to pump so that people will panic and buy. This circle bull run is from the ETF approval that will make the price to skyrocket. If it happens that the approval is not done, we will still have the halving event and the bull run. It is the market that knows how that will happen.

Yes, that was my mistake, halving will reduce the reward for miners, it will not reduce the bitcoin supply , which is still 21 million bitcoins and will be fully mined by 2140.

Bitcoin is no longer an investment that helps us get rich with a small amount of capital , but it is still an investment that brings significant profits and helps us increase our assets. People who want to get rich with bitcoin with little capital need to really wake up and have a more realistic view . But I hope this won't disappoint many people and look to altcoins as a solution . Because altcoins are very risky and most of them are just scams .

There are a bunch of reasons that contributed to this rise but I wouldn't put ETF's fake hype in that list or at least it would be at the bottom of it. Breaking the $30k resistance and coming up this high is too big a rise to be attributed to such a weak news like ETF. The two main reasons in my opinion were the halving hype that is getting closer and the other one is the interest rates that mostly stopped rising which always leads to more capital coming to all other markets (other than the bonds crap).

All Bitcoin holders are surely happy with the news about ETF and Halving. These two issues don't bring any bad vibes even when the worst case scenario happens. Instead... they serve as a morale boost for BTC holders when both issues unfold as expected, leading to the much anticipated bull run. Right now, i'm not taking this too seriously because it won't make me sell BTC for a while... my emotions are strong enough to hodl until my target price is reached.

Moreover, the high transaction fees at the moment are keeping me from making Bitcoin transactions. This situation just reinforces my determination to hodl.

Let's wait and see when the ETF and halving moments prove what we hope for.

I would be more optimistic on Bitcoin halving because that's something which is a sure sure process and it will send price of Bitcoin higer after the possible correction we might see in early 2024 which you are referring as something will happen in next few months which will push down the price, I think this cycle we are yet to see actual bull run because the value of Bitcoin has already crossed $30k twice this year once in April and another instance was in July. Indeed next cycle will see new high and Bitcoin has higher possibility of breaching $100k

As far as Spot ETF is concerned it has definitely given a boost to the value of Bitcoin, But as per the latest news the SEC were supposed to make a call by now but it has postponed the result on Spot ETF approval till early next year.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/11/17/sec-delays-decision-on-global-x-spot-bitcoin-etf/amp/

Thinking that Bitcoin needs an ETF for the price to rise may not be true. Every time some people say a reason that will lead to an increase in the price, for example the acceptance of Tesla, Amazon, Google, Facebook, or even that the United States will adopt Bitcoin as its official currency, but nothing happens in reality, and yet the price rises or will happen, such as the acceptance of Tesla, and suddenly you stop doing so and the price continues to rise. All of these events are temporary stations.


I agree with you, rumors may cause this even if there is no change in the truth.

Yes, things are looking good for both events, although without getting pessimistic we cannot rule out that something will happen in the next few months that will push the price down. But the way things are going I think that even if the first spot ETF is not approved in the next few months, the trend will be to go up a little more before halving, to pass $100,000 next cycle. The question is what will be the maximum peak of that cycle, since this one was already disappointing and with the maximum peak of the next one we will be able to draw more conclusions.

I think the recent ETF hype only helped to jump-start the growth that was going to happen anyway because of the halvening and because Bitcoin was oversold during the bear market. Because it's totally unrealistic that a rumour of an ETF approval increased the value of Bitcoin by 50% - that's just some absurd volatility that only happens to immature assets and Bitcoin is supposed to be batter than that by now.

I beg to differ but it's always halving that has the huge impact for Bitcoin's price increase. The contribution of miners and the effects of the rewards that's been halved on them are just few of the many factors that can make the price and demand higher. I think with that weak effect that you're saying is based on the price reaction of Bitcoin. Like what we have on 2016-2017 and then 2018-2021. The difference are greatly far from each other but let's just take that the effect was there and no doubt that halving has always been impactful regardless whether there's another hype or contributor from factors like ETF and from the financial institutions.

In short term, narrative makes sense to boost the price up and when people are no longer interested in that narrative or fud comes, they will turn to be panic. News is used to manipulate the market for a long time, not only Bitcoin market and narrative, fud are kind of most common news for manipulation.

Bitcoin halvings, from history, help Bitcoin market to attract new investors with new capital for this market. I believe if there is no Bitcoin Spot ETF in 2024 or 2025, Bitcoin market will still get more capital from new investors who are from traditional markets include institutional investors.

I think we could ve completely wrong if all we could do is to assume every attempts on bitcoin bull market to be associated with bitcoin ETF, am not saying that it can't happen or be the cause, but not on every occassions that we have a pump in market has to be associated with the spot bitcoi ETF, the news as at that time took the price from $24,0000 to $34,000 and what more could be said on how we arrived at $37,000.

The supply isn’t actually halving. Only the miner rewards are getting halved. That means the inflation rate is dropping, less new btc will be issued for the next 4 years.

I agree with you on bitcoin’s future potential price changes though. Those volatile days are over indeed. No more x100 price rises… Even a x10 rise seems nearly impossible. X4 or x3 seems like a more realistic expectation for the next bull run. And that will easily carry bitcoin above $100k which will make so many people happy without a doubt.

I disagree with this, the halving event is always the biggest catalyst and has a positive impact on the value of bitcoin because the supply will be halved after 4 years. I guess you are referring to the fact that bitcoin no longer brings profits of thousands of percent, or x10, x100 like many years ago. And you're blaming the halving but that's wrong thinking because even combined with ETFs, it won't help bitcoin give you x100 returns. Bitcoin has matured and become big so it is normal that it no longer grows thousands of times, but in return it has become safer.

Furthermore , although it no longer brings large profits, profits from bitcoin are still more significant than investing in gold and real estate.

The ETF is waiting to be launched it will be postponed again, in my opinion, just waiting for momentum, you can imagine the price of Bitcoin will soar if the ETF is accompanied by the Bitcoin Halving.
I am waiting for this Halving event so that everyone will celebrate with the next Bull Run next year. For now, it's time to buy Bitcoin gradually.

It looks like someone is feeding them information not to approve the ETF this fast, like they are waiting for the appropriate time, which to me is the coming year, but all in all even if ETF fails Bitcoin will still make a new all time high.

Do you really think that ETF have a larger impact than the halving cycle? I think so too because after every halving cycle the price still dumps until few months later but ETF could instantly surge the price but what will be the end of that? Buy the rumor sell the news I believe.

This ETFs approval will make better money to flow into crypto and that's where I believe that this is going to be good for the market but also this could be bad, maybe in future crypto market will change drastically because of the involvement of these companies we don't know.

Also this can be use to manipulate the crypto market, as many now strongly believe that ETF will be approved, if the opposite happens it will cause a dump to happen and the Black Rock and co will be able to get their hands on more Bitcoin.

It's better to avoid getting caught in what may or may not happen, with or without ETF, time is already running out, you are to keep dollar cost averaging and believe in this strategy only, forget what the news is saying they are all distractions.

Timely Halving Event and Bitcoin ETF a Positive Bombshell

As optimism remain high on Halving event and Bitcoin ETF it is important to note that Inflow and Outflow drives the prize of any commodity or asset in the globe. For Bitcoin what leave the prize from accelerating or decelerating is essentially its inflows and outflows. Bitcoin Market-Cap will remain $710 billion as long as its sell-side pressure and buy-pressure remain the same.

Regarding the events already mentioned, there is no doubt that BTC has a positive future ahead of it. However, Bitcoin halving events have a weakening effect with each cycle, so Bitcoin ETFs have a larger impact on BTC than "halving" events when accounting for inflows and outflows.

Lately, we have witnessed the movement of BTC from $24,000 to bout $36,000 which can be attributed to the Bitcoin ETF narrative. Some of the estimations that came from different sources like BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck etc. was also a factor. A clear example; Galaxy Digital in its projection which says Bitcoin ETFs in its first year will draw $ 14 billion which eventually will lead to a 74% surge in Bitcoin price. As at the now there is no guarantee yet that Bitcoin ETF will be approved but discussions and submission so far seems positive because all criteria have been met.
https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/major-investment-firm-galaxy-digital-bitcoin-products-could-soon-see-450-billion-inflow

Sizing the market for Bitcoin ETF as at now there are 842,000 BTC at $21.7 Billion currently held in ETPs and closing funds. Which implies there is already a large holding. At an eagle’s view in the long run there may be over $126 billion to $424 billion inflow. There are lot of matrixes out there and optimistic estimate exposure of 1-2% of investors’ funds. To be optimistic there awaits a huge inflow for Halving and Bitcoin ETF.