Topic: To put things in some kind of perspective... (Read 1793 times)
My prediction is a broad repeat of July 2011, because its driven by the same underlying factors, improved mining electrical efficiency driving miners to hoard which drives up prices, creates public notoriety blows the bubble which then pops losing about half its value. Then over the remaining months the miners squeeze out each other profit margins and return to liquidating coins gradually lowering prices. 2011 was GPU mining based and 2013 is ASIC based. I predict a $30 price 6 months from now.
The Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized around $115-120. Assuming this price holds, then this 4-day correction has only given back the previous 7 days' gains. Think about this - Bitcoin is currently still up on the month of April.
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
This is almost what I've been repeating. I say go back a little further though to look at the trendline we MAY be rejoining.
Around 18th March 2013 we hit crazy growth that was in no way sustainable, before that however, 1.8% day-on-day was sustained for 10 weeks or so.
You can *almost* see the gravitational attraction to that line can't you? Suggesting we hit $120 a little prematurely.
See I said said BTC was stable at $120 :-) It's just that it's stable in a trading range of $50-$140 LOL
roy
roy
The Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized around $115-120. Assuming this price holds, then this 4-day correction has only given back the previous 7 days' gains. Think about this - Bitcoin is currently still up on the month of April.
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
+1 for perspective.
After the last bubble, it fell from 30 to 3 USD. If we experience the same again, we will get down to 26 USD. However, the previous bubble spiked higher and saw prices increasing 300-fold since the beginning of 2011, where prices only increase about 30-fold in 2013. So I would also expect the downturn a little more moderate. The NASDAQ lost two third of its value when the bubble burst. I guess we will be in between, finding a bottom in the range of 50 USD to 100 USD. I'd definitely buy additional BTC if it ever fell below 50 USD again.
The Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized around $115-120. Assuming this price holds, then this 4-day correction has only given back the previous 7 days' gains. Think about this - Bitcoin is currently still up on the month of April.
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
That's where you're wrong.
A lot of great news has been released
Yup.
Bitcoin is fluctuating hard because:
Injections of fresh fiat are rolling in, Cyprus was the first major exodus of a banking system to BTC, and will not be the last I think.
Speculation
Positive/negative media spin
Lack of diversified exchanges allows hackers/outside influence to manipulate the current exchange rate.
The Bitcoin protocol and idea is sound, it is everything around it that is pushing the market around. It will never truly stabilize until it is much larger probably and won't be so succeptible to shocks. Though through it all, it has proven Bitcoin is a resilient financial beast.
Bitcoin is fluctuating hard because:
Injections of fresh fiat are rolling in, Cyprus was the first major exodus of a banking system to BTC, and will not be the last I think.
Speculation
Positive/negative media spin
Lack of diversified exchanges allows hackers/outside influence to manipulate the current exchange rate.
The Bitcoin protocol and idea is sound, it is everything around it that is pushing the market around. It will never truly stabilize until it is much larger probably and won't be so succeptible to shocks. Though through it all, it has proven Bitcoin is a resilient financial beast.
True, and I'll avoid getting into speculating about price, beyond saying that I accept I may well be being over optimistic about the short term price.
Bitcoin itself is still experimental. The supporting infrastructure is still nascent. So yes, it's ultimately all speculation. Most of Bitcoin's current value (if it has value - and I believe it has) comes not from the current utility of Bitcoin, but from the possibility/probability that Bitcoin will become a significant component of the global payments infrastructure years from now.
It's a speculative bet that Bitcoin will succeed. I happen to think that there is a reasonable chance that it will, but you're right, it's speculation. We probably won't get true price stability until Bitcoin has truly succeeded.
roy
Bitcoin itself is still experimental. The supporting infrastructure is still nascent. So yes, it's ultimately all speculation. Most of Bitcoin's current value (if it has value - and I believe it has) comes not from the current utility of Bitcoin, but from the possibility/probability that Bitcoin will become a significant component of the global payments infrastructure years from now.
It's a speculative bet that Bitcoin will succeed. I happen to think that there is a reasonable chance that it will, but you're right, it's speculation. We probably won't get true price stability until Bitcoin has truly succeeded.
roy
Yes but even at $120 one could still argue there was a bubble. It was just at $12 three months ago. With that kind of growth it would have been closer to $1000 by the end of the year.
The problem with it stabilizing wont happen until people view it as a currency and not stock/investment.
Ok, you were right. I clearly spoke too soon 
Ok, looks like we're still broadly in the $100-$120 trading range, with brief excursions outside it. I was perhaps a bit premature in seeing $115 as a new stable price though.
Ok, you were right. I clearly spoke too soon
roy
roy
Stalibized? Stabilized??? Are you fcking insane?
Well, it's all relative, but it's been trading in the range $100-120 for the last 14 hours or so,
That you are measuring this stability in hours is a hint enough.
It was moving in 20% range in the last 14 hours, that's extreme volatility. It went from "fucking insane volatility" to a mere "extreme".
The Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized
Stalibized? Stabilized??? Are you fcking insane?
Well, it's all relative, but it's been trading in the range $100-120 for the last 14 hours or so, and tending towards the top end of that range ($115-120) in recent hours; and volume has settled down to more manageable levels, too. That's certainly relatively stable compared to the wild swings we've seen over the last few days. Market depth also looks much healthier.
Of course, none of us know what the future will bring, but things seem to be settling down, IMO.
roy
[EDIT: I'm basing my analysis on Mt.Gox prices, as displayed by bitcoincharts.com]
The Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized
Stalibized? Stabilized??? Are you fcking insane?
+1 for positivity
The Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized around $115-120. Assuming this price holds, then this 4-day correction has only given back the previous 7 days' gains. Think about this - Bitcoin is currently still up on the month of April.
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
If you consider the 7 day mini-bubble that lasted from 3rd-9th April to be an aberration, then we are pretty much where we should be if you just extend the late-March trendline. Sure, people who managed to call the top will be sitting on a nice profit (and people who bought into the mini-bubble will be nursing heavy losses) but otherwise I suggest you just erase the last 11 days from your mind.
Imagine we're back at 2nd April, and Bitcoin has just notched up another new high just shy of $120. What's changed since then? Nothing much, as far as I can see... I imagine we'll get back to $260 one day. But this time we'll have to go the long way round.
I think this is really a very positive sign, that even after this manic price action we are still just back on the trendline. This was a correction, not a crash; people still have faith in Bitcoin's long term value, it would appear...
[Edited slightly]
roy
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