Topic: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap (Read 4532 times)

Thank you for your concerns. I take the time to explain some of the motivations behind my actions, related to the quoted part of your post.

1. Yes, we bought up pretty much all we could find. The deciding moment was the resilience of Bitcoin community in the face of the fork last month. The issue was fixed with 10x more professionalism and determination than can be found in wall street. This gave me the confidence to go "all-in". I realize that every one of the current USD/BTC exchanges is unable to cope with the demand, but that will not affect the bitcoin protocol. I have no reason to panic if Mt.Gox closes down entirely. The people will find the way to buy bitcoins if they want them. The premier newspaper in Finland ran a 2-page article on Bitcoin today, without a single fundamental misunderstanding. I will roll-out a comprehensive newspaper ad campaign next week in all Finnish newspapers with 100k+ readership. I am selling bitcoins to people for a 10% fee. Bitcoin is so small at present, the value of the real estate in 1 kilometer radius from my house is more than an order of magnitude bigger. Give me 3 months to raise the awareness, so I can buy all the bitcoins anyone wants to sell for sub-$50, to sell them OTC for profit.

2. I don't believe the majority of bitcoins are in speculative hands. Speculators don't hold positions for long, and prefer to use leverage, options, etc. and not own the underlying. Even if there are many speculators out there in number, the number of physical bitcoins they hold at any given moment is negligible, by which I mean less than BTC500,000.

3. There is no way for bitcoin to return to any stable value less than $10,000. What you don't seem to understand is the supply/demand dynamics. Ben Bernanke has said, "there is this technology called printing press". As he speaks the truth, and there actually is such a technology, everyone should be aware that he can cap dollar's appreciation at any time by just doling out $100,000 of physical or digital cash to every citizen of his country (note: currently USD is not created by printing press, rather than loaned out at interest, which is a diametric opposite of a printing press - but he nevertheless has the printing press also, and the means to use it).

With bitcoin, there is no printing press. Barring a flaw in the protocol, nobody can create bitcoins at will. This leaves bitcoin's fate (as regards to its purchasing power) to be decided in the open market between the current bitcoin holders and current fiat holders. A popular misunderstanding is that the price of something is somehow decided by popular vote. If 90% are bearish on bitcoin, its value should decrease, don't you think so? I am afraid you are wrong. The price is decided by the highest bidder, compared to the lowest seller. There are only so many bitcoins out there, and much more dollars (and real physical wealth, such as gold, silver, land, RE, shares of income-generating businesses, which can also be exchanged for bitcoins). Last week, Wikileaks divulged that there is $32 trillion parked in a certain tax haven. If 0.01% of this money wants to buy out all the bitcoins in existence, they would be valued at $290 per. In reality, about 90% of bitcoins are not for sale at below that price, so basically a sudden influx of $3 billion to bitcoin, would raise its price far above $1000.

In a free market, only the ones that trade, have a vote. If you don't have any bitcoins that you are willing to part with, you have pretty little business trying to force its price down. If you don't have fiat (or anything else valuable) that you are willing to part with, you have not much chance to raise the price of bitcoins. Currently only about 100,000 people in the world are influencing bitcoin's price in any way. When the rest join in, the only candidate they have in their ballot is "UP". Shorting bitcoins is not only hazardous due to the instability of the platforms, and stupid, because the price is in uptrend, it is also almost impossible, because the large buyers/holders of bitcoins will take delivery, abolishing the chance to naked short it, up to any meaningful degree.

4. I knew of Bitcoin when it was still a non-traded currency. I chose my entry point to be much later, when I could trade the fiat (that I am good at making in the meantime) for bitcoins with ease. Now I recently decided to go all-in, which means that I have invested everything that I can afford to lose. Believe me, I don't regret for a second if the technology blows up. I still have my emergency gold and silver, my other businesses, my family, and my Lord. In the event that nobody else is buying bitcoins, I will buy them all the way to the bottom, and we will continue to play poker with the 10+ million bitcoins with my friends, hosted by the sole functioning node in my engine room. I am having a serious fun with this, I am grateful to satoshi, early adopters, devteam and (even) the operators of Mt.Gox for allowing me this chance to influence history. I will not lose my weekly bottle of Riesling no matter what happens to the price. My aim is to develop a healthy bitcoin brokerage, and continue to run it until I move on to other things. At that time I will sell it to the big guys coming after me, for 10,000 bitcoins (+ the book value). The big boys will not buy anything for less than $500 million, so either we make it or break it.

5. I would be sorry to see if you sell out too early. May I suggest you to use the method I deviced for myself, when I still had the mindset of "selling to the strength". After the initial investment, you just wait for the price to double. As it doubles, you sell 25% (or whatever you are comfortable with, as long as it is less than 50%). If it doubles again, you sell 25% of the rest. Repetitio ad infinitum. This way the dollar value of your remaining bitcoins can only ever grow (provided that bitcoin goes up, of course). Also your living standard increases all the time. If it crashes, you still win.

I'm sorry, what you said makes no sense at all. you would need all the worlds governments working together in order to manipulate bitcoin to $10,000 in the first place. You either ignored liquidity or don't understand the concept as it relates to commodities.

These are mutually exclusive claims. Sorry, but now that people are aware of this thing, if bitcoin is to be stable one needs to be worth >10k so it is not easily manipulated. This is the only way. Not saying this will happen, but it is necessary for stability.

Eletric is right. There are shills posting constantly in here to get bullish passion flowing.

from January 1 2012 to December 31 2012 the price more than doubled from around 6 to around 14. 133% growth in a year is absolutely huge, but could possibly be expected given that bitcoin is a very new thing slowly gaining in awareness and acceptance, and I wouldn't be surprised if the bitcoin economy also doubled in that time.

Then along came the people like mr rich suit in this thread, who bought up all the BTC they could find, not to use as a futuristic currency, but to hold as a commodity so it could hopefully make them money.

People throw around the 210 million dollars at $20 figure as the market cap. You have to remember it's much much lower, because many of those coins are held and not for sale by early adopters, and many have been lost or forgotten. at the start of 2013, it's pretty realistic to say that $10 million would pretty much buy you control of the liquid bitcoin market.

The results are what we saw happen this year, mr rich suit, the winklefloss brothers, probably a few wall street types and other wealthy speculators bought up most of the liquid market. This drives prices ever higher in a deflationary death spiral, especially if it was combined with human or algorithmic market manipulation. There was no underlying 1000% in 3 month increase in the bitcoin economy, no new big company suddenly accepting bitcoin as payment. Silk road is still a huge majority of the market for people who use bitcoin as a currency. The news articles about bitcoin didn't start appearing until it was already bubbling hard and doubling every month, no every 2 weeks, no every week!

A return to what it was at end of 2012, plus or minus 50% is the most likely result given the fundamentals. $0 is possible, and $100 is possible, but neither of those two results would likely result in a stable price.

The real problem is that bitcoin was designed as a currency, but is this year being used by the vast majority of its holders as a high risk high return high volatility speculative commodity.

No one wants their currency to be speculative high risk high volatility, as they risk losing money just by buying something. No way will Amazon, Google, Apple or any seriously big potential players offer this as an option until it is stable.

The market will fix this itself, I can think of two possible outcomes, I'm sure there are others though.

1) BTC will return to something close to its stable value last year. In this case mr rich suit (remember he said "I only bought a meaningful number of bitcoins this year", and all his high finance type buddies will end up either with losses, or have sold out to a greater fool and made their money.  Either way they'll move on to something less stable and more speculative until the next bubble and bitcoin will get a lot of liquidity back. Meanwhile bitcoin is back on the road to more widespread adoption as a currency.
2) liquidity will stay low, and bitcoins will fluctuate from $100, to $500, to $50, then back to maybe $100 or $1000. Many will make a fortune. An identical number will lose a fortune. all the big companies like Silk Road (I use the term company loosely there) and Wordpress  will switch over to litecoin or a different crypto currency, and bitcoin will just be a bunch of bytes, used for nothing but a bunch of people selling coins back and forth to eachother while hoping to come out on top (i.e satoshi dice with lower transaction fees)

Watch now, and then wait. It will get kind of quiet here in a few months.

Doesn't matter. The point is that this is money that is interested in bitcoin. $10 is not sustainable. Zero or much higher is sustainable.

Sit back and watch.

A significant drop in price will make that: speculators and weak hands to sell. That would be beneficial for a healthy future of Bitcoin. I read a lot about price opinions: some people argue it's high others it's low... the real truth is nobody knows what the fair price or fundamental price is.

Monetizations are a roller coaster and this volatility is very common in the process and it won't be the last slope.

I really hope bitcoin goes much lower for me to get into, I think there is a chance for bitcoin to prospere. For me the current price (94$) seems like too high. My memory is set to 4/10$ a btc, higher than that my head thinks it's expensieve. But again, nobody can't really tell me I'm wrong (and I'm 0% sure that I'm right).

USD showing their hand on mt gox orderbook would buy 1.4 million bitcoins at $10 each.

I understand perfectly.
What you don't seem to understand is that you are not the ones in control here

If you want to prove you have an account, just transfer all your coins out of it to a new address. The chances of a random guy doing that are pretty low so it will suffice.

That shouldn't be hard.

r/bitcoin 35,009 readers

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/

average of $600/reader -> $21 million

And no I don't think these people would ever go all in. I'm just demonstrating to you the amount of money that is aware of and interested in bitcoin. And this so far is pretty much just from the english speaking world.

What you don't seem to understand, is that we rich make more money than we need even without much working for it, so this in essence gives us freedom to do what we want, with the money we already have. Good night.

Please do I'll be laughing all the harder if you actually were somebody reasonably wealthy and blown it all up on a delusional dream. 

Yes, indeed, the way I am doing. So now, get a life of your own, please.

Surly they will go "all in" in the true Buttcoiner fashion, liquidate everything buy BTC and live from a diet of rice and beans for the next decade. 

LSVP 1   $2B
http://www.crunchbase.com/financial-organization/lightspeed-venture-partners

http://www.crunchbase.com/company/y-combinator
FUNDING TOTAL    $10.3M

Tribeca Venture Fund II LP, 9/12    $46.5M
http://www.crunchbase.com/financial-organization/tribeca-venture-partners

FUNDING TOTAL    $34.2M
http://www.crunchbase.com/company/secondmarket

IDG Ventures is a global network of venture capital funds with approximately $3.7 billion under management and a portfolio of over 220 companies built over the last 15 years.
http://www.crunchbase.com/financial-organization/idg-ventures

Now you've got to be kidding. I only bought a meaningful number of bitcoins this year, am not a nerd, and you think I use bitcoin-qt?? 

You've got to be kidding.  You can do that in bitcoin-qt and do not even have to be online with it.

Not that long ago I asked you for the instructions.

Sign a message. Something like "I am rpietila from bitcointalk my wallet address is 12345ASDF"

It's not that hard, easier to wait for some random address to get activity.

That is an old suit, which I bought in 2008 in Dubai. Btw. the Burj-al-Arab was nice. Just for the lulz, I don't know if you appreciate my gesture but I have this address. I will PM you 10 minutes before I use it.

Probably you will die in waiting.. I have no intention to use it ever, as I am here to buy more coins, not to spend them, as I have all I need and my income is sufficient to cover all my possible future needs.

Do you represent them or not?
Again I ask you to provide proof of your wealth, since you are the one highballing in the forum and even posing with a suit.  
(Are you sure you don't sell insurances or something )

BTW: I really look like my avatar too 

Even if all the bitcoins go to zero in flames, I will have the biggest personal silver account here, notwithstanding the fact that I own 60% of the bank and its mighty holdings.

More and more expensive how, exactly? The real value of goods doesn't change in comparison to BTC. If by "mass adoption" you mean "a mass of 15 year olds thinking they'll make a million bucks overnight" then I could care less about that kind of adoption.

In fact, the BTC economy gets cheaper and cheaper to new entrants due to deflation increasing purchasing power.

Wouldn't be the first time the one "new rich" wasting their fortune.
That's still not 210M and not even somebody with a lucky lawsuit can't be that reckless with their money. Added to that it seems they got in just at the wrong time, so they might dump.

http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-20130412,0,2585829.story

Winklevoss don't have a forum account, and I don't have a hotwallet LOL. The new wave has arrived

And how is that relevant?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/22/winklevoss-twins-facebook-lawsuit_n_882618.html

Loaded has 200k and only a few posts, he has done that and nobody questions it. Do as you like, but if you want to be taken seriously as a big fish you need to provide cryptographically verifiable proof.

To be honest, I laugh every time I need to "show" your messages when I suspect that they are replies to me

How much coin is enough for you? BTC2,000? I don't know how to sign a message and it is offline anyway. Perhaps you post the how-to as I think I will need to learn, so as to not appear a newbie...

Sign a message with your wallet. If it is worth a significant amount I will leave you be.

What exactly you want? I believe I can rather easily prove any trivial matters, and I will, just for show

Mee too


Prove it. Loaded has done it, you could too.

LOL. There are hundreds of such groups, and I lead one of them.

The problem is rather, as we start to buy, the price goes up. The way to shake the unbelievers is to rattle with the price. So far doing good and my personal holdings are up BTC1000 per 48 hours. It does not really matter at what price we buy, but it is better to buy cheaply as then you get more coin.

"Its not fair that some people got bitcoins cheaper than ~"
                                +
"I'm not buying bitcoins, because it went down in price (i.e, because it isn't more expensive than ~)."
                              ==
"I want to make money without taking any risk."

Provide proof of a $210 million group interested in BTC.

At $10/btc a group with $210 million could buy all bitcoins ever. This price is not sustainable with current levels of awareness.

duh, That's why the price is higher than in 11. But that doesn't mean it is sustainable.
It weren't back then and it isn't now.

Then:
public awareness == the amount of suckers
infrastructure hasn't improved a bit.

When bitcoin was only used by satoshi and his friend in 2010? Meh, i suppose the first versions of the software had even bigger bugs.

The only way it can ever drop to $50 is due to the inability/crookedness of the exchanges. In OTC market, I see absolutely no one willing to sell, everyone just wants to buy. If ever you have coins for sale for $50, or want to buy puts, just PM me.

Not true, public awareness is much greater, infrastructure is stronger (but still weak), bitcoin has not been hacked for longer (increased confidence), more and more usefulness all the time. Just trading-wise, mt gox order book has 14 million in bids showing, what did it have in 2011?

The only thing supporting the price right now is MTGox and their ever more transparent price manipulation.

Anybody who right now buys at 100 will kick themselves for not being able to wait.
There are a few of you out there who still think they can turn this around, it's exactly the same situation like when I first joined this forums after the bust in 11.

Umm, what of the billions of Bitcoins credited to a wallet by a hack which had to be rolled back?

Yeah well, bitcoin lifetime= only 4 years. I think it is impressive that in just 4 years it went from 0 to a billion dollar economy never hacked by anyone (sure, services and exchanges were hacked, but bitcoin no)

Yes, because I know bitcoin is useful, I have used it and dont just speculate. Do you really see mass adoption of a currency that gets less and less valuable to new entrants? Initial distribution is completely unfair. Bitcoin is first come, first serve, which is an understandable concept to people.

Yes, and that very mechanism is why Bitcoin should be viewed with suspicion. Do you really see mass adoption of a currency that gets more and more expensive to new entrants?

This is silly. Averages only mean something if you are sampling from a distribution with a constant expected value. I wouldn't draw any conclusion from such analysis. We even have a plausible mechanism for why price would increase over time.

excuse my repetition, but remember: Bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

This.  If Bitcoin went below a buck the same people complaining about the unfairness of "cheap coins" would run away screaming Bitcoin has failed.  If Bitcoin recovered and in four years was at $500 again they would be again crying that it wasn't fair other people could buy cheap coins.

Hint:  Bitcoins were "cheap" at one time because nobody even knew they were going to be worth a penny in the future.

Truth

The best way to make money is to take no risk.

Just wait until Bitcoin is at a non-risky price and buy as much as you can.

I am sure that has done well for people in the past.

I was one of the people complaining about having to buy over $200 when other had it cheap. Got burned in the last few days but I'm not worried about the future. Now just want more cheap coins

Funny enough, the only place that let me send money quick and cheap is bitfloor, where the price keep coming near $100 but never falling to the level of the other exchanges... I will double my coins when it does.

BAM, nail on the head..

I cant figure out why anyone would call $100 cheap, they were half that a month before, and half that before the bubble started.

Best thing that could happen would be it crashes back to $10-30 and stays there for a few months at least. That will drive out the speculators and manipulators. I doubt that will happen with all the hoarding though.

People who complained about not being able to buy cheap coins earlier will not buy cheap coins now because there are risks involved

If you're in for the long haul (which you should be) then either bitcoin goes to the moon or it goes to zero.

Any drop in price should be greeted with celebration, as it's a chance to buy more. 

Price is still extremely high...up something like 500% in the last few months.  It may be your last chance to buy bitcoins at such a "cheap" price or BTC may never reach $150 again...as in NEVER.

It could go either way but the odds of it dropping to 50 are a lot higher right now than it seeing 200 in the next few weeks.

You argument is too simple. Certainly the price is much lower now. But I believe bitcoins trustworthiiness also has fallen. I was a relatively early adopter, put in quite a lot on BTC, expecting a nice rise. However the rollercoaster behaviour of last few days display some  fundamental weakness. I hva reduced my stakes considerably, not because I distrust bitcoin itself,  but I distrust the market, which I believe is highly manipualated.
 

Well, even after the 2011 bubble, the price dropped at most at 2, much higher than cents, but still, much lower than 32.

The price now is increasing, this may be the last chance to buy bitcoins at a such cheap price.

I think they meant people that bought or mined when it was a few cents to a few dollars but the point is correct.
If/when a coin costs 5,000 ( or more) then 100$ is still "early adopters"

So in the past weeks i was reading about people that were like "omg early adopters bought cheap coins, while we can buy them only at 250, it is unfair"

Yeah well, now they are at 100, and some days ago even lower. If what you say is not epic trolling, then NOW is the time to buy.  Or you will come back when bitcoin will be at 500 crying "too high!" ?