Topic: Today (05/07) more than 3x of the BTC were sold than MtGox will pay out in July (Read 531 times)

Okay, so MtGox distribution is slowly going on, the LKA Saxony (generally referred to as "Germany" or "German BKA") has sold ~45000 coins (according to last data available on the Wall Observer, see here). And we've not seen lower lows.

Price is still a bit weak, but has recovered and even got several times above 59k, although the 60k region remains a resistance (until now). For me that's a good sign in general, the market is strong enough to digest these coins.

I agree actually with you @stompix about the difference if the coins are sold at 60k or 50k. Thus, the #GoxCoinPanic dump may have even a positive side: the impact on liquidity of the "real" Goxcoins is smaller than at 60 or even 70k.

I guess with the remaining Gox coins the "digestion" will be even better as I don't expect them to be sold in too large chunks, and much less in a few days like the LKA Saxony did.

Now you're talking!
There is only one small thing left, but that is out of reach for anyone unless they want to spend their days dealing with numbers, and it's the price per coin via transactions because it's a huge difference if 10k coins get dumped on 1 billion of liquidity at 60k or at 50k.
But anyhow, you're on a better path now than just volume!


Yup, complicated stuff, but it has to be complicated otherwise we would know the price of BTC exactly to the dime on the 15th of March 2178!
Liquidation volume is also a real mess, you can have billions caught with their pants down on a 5% drop or you could have anyone waiting on the side while a 20% drop begins.....
High volume, extreme volatility, and lower liquidations are usually a hint the market expected that!


Yeah...no!!! 
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1HeHLv7ZRFxWUVjuWkWT2D5XFbXXvHoV68
From 47,228.73 coins  44,526 are still here!
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/16ArP3SPFJwq6X5fTZRLu2UcEAn1dXVqdF

and -2,701.78 have been moved back to:
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6
The initial wallet!

Only  1,451 have been moved to an actual exchange:
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet/51220325

I try to use another model and for me my point still on the whole holds, even with a larger number of coins "sold yesterday" (but it means something slightly different, see below).

I played a bit with the 5-minute candles on Binance of yesterday. If you aggregate green candles as "buys" and red candles as "sells", then regarding volume during the 7 hours of the main dump (~9.2% down from 58500 to 53800 between 7PM and 1AM UTC) then the relation between the volume of red candles and green candles was slightly above 2:1.

So we could guess: If we assume the rest of the day the relation between buys and sells was in equilibrium (the market moved largely sideways before and after the dump in a "stair" pattern, and a quick look at the candles seems to confirm that), then we had a relation of 1.29 to 1. This means: For each coin bought, 1.29 would have been sold.

Or in other words: 56% of the coins traded this day were "sold", 44% were "bought". The total volume were 912000 BTC, and 56% of these are thus around 510000. This means something slightly different as in the other calculation, because it includes the coins sold by short-term traders. We can paraphrase it to: 110000 coins more were sold than those that were bought.

Let's now go back to the Goxcoins. And let's assume the absolute worst case: all 140000 BTC are sold a single day. This means about 8 billion worth of USD per day are added to the sell side.

Let's assume that all other conditions stay the same - no more dip fishers, no more panicking weak hands. If we assume that at equilibrium (sideways market) we have a volume of 30 billion or 526000 coins on weekdays (1:1 relation), this would drive the volume from this "equilibrium" to 38 billion.

Yes, this would cause a quite big drop probably, because the relation between buy and sell orders would be a bit higher than yesterday's 1.29:1, it would be close to 1.5:1. Thus, I'd expect a dump in the region of 15-20%.

But the scenario is quite unrealistic, because MtGox distribution has already begun but only a fraction of the coins are paid out each day.

Where you're right is that in certain conditions a single larger dump can trigger other dumps, mostly when there's too much leverage in the market. However, afaik liquidations in yesterday's dump were only worth 600 millon USD, which were about 1.2% of the total volume.

But it's exactly this market dynamic people need to be conscient about. These dumps would be the result of either excessive greed (liquidations) or excessive fear combined with shorting. It's not caused directly by the supply surplus but by mass psychology.

Well today some were already distributed by MtGox ... and the price even recovered a little bit. The dump was earlier than the start of the BTC distribution, afaik. It came after the 47k coins were moved from the cold wallet.

That's exactly what I want to line out with this thread. If there is panic/FOMO, then the movements are probably much larger than as a consequence of a simple sequence of large orders. Of course this also works the other way around, that's why I'm actually less bullish than most about the ETF "inflows" and also about halving effects.

Should I get again the water bottles for the difference between volume and market depth? 

I told you the writing was on the wall, anyone going to Binance or Coinbase and looking at the pairs and the depth of buy orders could have seen what even some easily few thousands dumped would have done in the last days, it was a perfect market waiting for one small dump to trigger one three times the size.

Assuming the same order book and those two scenarios:
If 10 guys come and sell 10 BTC and 10 guys buy 9 BTC you have 190 volume and -10 BTC deficit with 100 coins dump.
If 10 guys come and sell 12 BTC and 10 guys buy 7 BTC you have 190 volume and -50 BTC deficit with 120 coins dump.

So rather than the weak hands, why not blame the disappearing into the void of the "cheap coins' gang?
Even the most perfect equilibrium needs just one tiny push at the right moment and it turns into chaos.


They didn't sell and we went to 53k out of sheer panic, what do you think will happen when they do?

Yeah, Mt.Gox only moved 1,500 BTC and German Government moved 4,000 BTC.

It's really far to hit 400,975 Bitcoin that has been sold today, I think people who sell that much are retailers who don't have any idea with Bitcoin, but they buy it since they think Bitcoin will double or triple their money in next few months.

Even both Mt.Gox and German Government dump all of their coins, it's not even enough to dump Bitcoin to $52K.

Today it was even worse: the trading volume was over 50 billion, and the Bitcoin price has lowered, so even if we take 57000 $ as the average price  (I guess it is actually significantly lower, i.e. more coins were sold) and 30 billion as the "normal" trading volume, then today 400975 BTC were sold! This is almost three times the 140.000 Goxcoins, and more than 6x the coins which will probably be paid out (to individual creditors).

And that only because Gox moved some coins, it actually didn't pay out anything. Yes, there was a movement of German BKA coins too, and it's possible that they were sold, but that was much earlier than the "big dump".

(Actually I should write that in some Asian language because the main dump occurred during Asian trading hours.)

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@X-ray: Somewhat I agree, for example when I read that "a hedge fund" published an "analysis" (citing two quite exotic indicators) that the "cycle top is already in", I asked myself: weren't hedge funds massively shorting Bitcoin these weeks? However, I think the #GoxCoinPanic is not the hedge fund's responsibility. All the time a lot of different, bullish and bearish, analysis are published, with obvious agendas.

It's weak hands, period.

I mean to be fair if the panic due to Mt.Gox already triggered such massive sell off, the event in which MtGox paid BTC is finally ready to sell gonna create bigger impact, the main factor that moves the market right now is always FUD and shill.

The big players know that they can move the market without capital just by fudding BTC with these news, the Mt.Gox sell off will have massive effect and create panic in the market undeniably despite the fact that market itself is kinda resilient to such sell off as shown from the current amount of sold BTC, The market definitely has the money to contain all those dumps but it's always the FUD that magnify the effect and some people just trying to find opportunity buying BTC at lower price after mt.gox sell off by selling it now kinda make it worse.

Yep but I was writing about July sales. These 11% haircut then could be redistributed later, but they don't count for July.

Regarding the rest of what Galaxy Research wrote, the logic I interpreted is of course that the distribution by the claim funds and Bitcoinica to their creditors should take longer than to be sold in July.

If you take all possible sales, then 140k is the worst case. But for the payments expected for July, I see no reason why a "realistic" worst case should be more than 65k. At least according to this source.

My conclusion is that we will have more "used to be frozen" Bitcoin circulating in the market which might inflict few damage in the Bitcoin price in short term especially if it coincides with a high selling trend, otherwise in the medium and long term, the return of investment of these coins will pay itself.

Yeah, sorry but lol, do these guys know how percentages work and how you should apply them at all?
Because if you take the first 75% of the creditors that would sell and then from this 75% you cut the 30k creditors will not sell, it doesn't make sense.

So it's not 140*(75/100)-30, and btw, 75% out of 140 is 105 not 95  , but rather (140-30)*75/100 which is 82.5 

Also, the 10% is shaved out of their initial claim, not out of the money that gets reimbursed. So if I had $200 my paycheck is $180, but that doesn't mean that if the trustee had $190 he will just pocket the change, whatever is over my claim will be redistributed to the ones that demanded a full paycheck, common, it's in the damn reimbursement plan!
All the money the trustee has will be reimbursed, there is no 10% cut just because some cashed in early, it just gets redistributed to the ones that didn't!

Furthermore, he says that those 30k will be delivered to other creditors, mainly Bitcoinica, well, I have news for you Bitcoinica is in liquidation and the other is owned by MGIF , you expect users with lost coins from 2013 to sell in only 75% but you somehow think guys who lost money in 2012 won't?

Also....the conclusion...

Nope, the worst-case scenario in which all creditors will sell is selling 140 000 coins!
The 65 000 is simply saying only 54% will sell, which is by no mean worst-case scenario.

I wish you were right about this one, but I clearly doubt you are. The reason is that people who are dealing with Bitcoin's intrinsic values are people who wish to do so, who have a genuine interest in complex topics in general. I found Bitcoin when I had to transfer larger sums of money from Germany to Switzerland during my studies while essentially  at the same time I was in California for a while studying "International Political Economy". In a research paper I was dealing with a certain angle that touched upon the power of currencies and intended interdependencies of goods/services + imports/exports and currencies. That's how I stumbled upon Bitcoin and then it made quickly sense to me why this thing exists and I couldn't stop researching it and I ended up writing a dozen of papers about it, including my final thesis (had amazing interview partners by the way: Mike Hearn, Ian Grigg, and several more). 

I doubt that many of those who are eager to speculate on bubble and casino like assets, are the type of people who eventually sit down and research that thing. Some yes, but I believe it is far, far less than 50%. One issue is that Bitcoin might be one of the most complex things I have come across in my life because it is extremely interdisciplinary and there is no limit to the depth and intensity of research you can do to understand it better and better.

But as you said, even the exaggerated down swings drew attention to Bitcoin in the past. More people got aware of it and when they something going down very quickly, it is at least in the back of their heads. Once they see it going up very quickly, they might take a shot at it, but not as someone who wants to understand Bitcoin. Only as someone who is hoping that +30% turns into +60% a day later.

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The number of people dumping from Mt. Gox will probably be pretty low and the link you shared has some good info about that. But given that Mt. Gox was pretty early days, many of the people who bought back then are more likely people who have a genuine interest in the technology and hence understand what has been built and grown ever since Mt. Gox went bust. Back then when they "lost" their Bitcoin, I am sure nobody thought that one day there would be Blackrock Bitcoin ETFs. Since we are now there, those who understand the technology probably suspect that this can go much further. This alone will lead most of these Mt. Gox "HODLers" (despite forced to... ) to not sell the majority if they can afford or reasonably justify in front of themselves to hold instead.

After all it is about "putting things into perspective". It would be good to have your info from this thread out in the open, so the sheep understand that the Mt. Gox thing is a drop in the ocean and no doom scenario. I can see the German "Bild" soon post a headline: "BEWARE BITCOIN HOLDERS: MT. GOX IS COMING". I guarantee it will happen!

Yes, about 140k. See also this post, so the likely "worst case" would be 65k Bitcoins sold approximately.

You're totally correct. And of course the same mechanism works also the other way around ... we had probably not been at $60.000 in February already if people knew how relatively reduced the direct US ETF impact in the market is. (It is significantly bigger than the Goxcoins and BKAcoins combined, and potentially much bigger in the long term, but "alone" the 250.000 BTC combined inflow - already taking into account GBTC of course - would not have caused the run to the new ATH.)

I think however posts like this one, "putting things into perspective" are useful to remind the community to be a bit more conscient about the actual magnitude of certain events. If we don't panic (and FOMO!) that much, then the Bitcoin adoption would be probably a little bit slower (because the FOMO/panic cycles are actually the reason for lots of users to enter, to try to "gamble" for a profit) but more healthy. If this has an effect on an even slightly smoother price curve (let's say max 50% bear markets instead of 70-80%, and 100% bull markets instead of 200%+), people would be associate Bitcoin less with a "speculation casino" and more for the intrinsic values like censorship resistance, and as a reliable store of value.

This is a nice observation that should help calm anyone that is panicking because of Mt.Gox payment that will supposedly happen next month even though no one is sure as it is not the first time repayment date have be fixed and it failed. However, I have some observations regarding your analysis. First thing is that my understanding of Volume is a composition of both buys and sells that happen in the market. If that be the case, even though you are right about the daily volume being higher than the amount the repayment of next month will inject into the market if everyone sold, this is not possible though, then the gap between both scenarios will be less than you stated.

Another thing is that the Mt.Gox refund will generate negative sentiment in the market and this will have a huge impact on the price that thrives on news. So, of there is a massive sell of, not only the recipient of the refund will but other weak hands might join with the intention of not being dumped on, although the overall effect is no enough to push price to zero but will just be a significant drop in price.

As for me, if the refund happens and price dumps, I will use it as a good entry point because the recovery will be fast and it will be a nice way to make good money.

Just to comment on the thought from the OP:

Thanks for putting things in perspective.
But that's sadly how the market works. You not only have to predict for the effect of a certain event, but also for the expected psychological one.
So even if one understands that the Mt Gox distribution is not a big thing, they might expect other investors to panic and still sell. Especially when all the media articles sound overly alarming (for more clicks) and don't provide a wider perspective (i.e. as done in the OP).
And, like it or not, whoever decided to sell after the Mt Gox announcement, made a good call, as the price went down by almost 7% in less than a day. Whether or not they bought back in at the bottom is a different thing.

It is by no means not the first time that there will be an impending event that can largely influence the btc market. But just like any other significant events in btc, we have seen that it may go down its price but it will recover again. Not to the point that it will go down to 0, I don't think that's gonna happen.

We have seen a lot of roller-coaster rides in this market, and yet, btc remains its top position. The decline will always be there as just any other market. But it always recover its position because the foundation is quite solid already.

Could be, but I think it's just one of the factors.
Having pull-backs at this stage of the 4-year halving cycle is nothing unusual. On top of that, summertime historically isn't the best period for growth (be it for crypto or traditional markets).
But if this was a major factor for the recent price drop, I think it would be priced in by now.


Thanks!
Given most of their creditors are Bitcoin early adopters, I can't imagine all of them rushing to sell all of it. But there will be some additional sell-pressure for sure.

Nice finding, interesting. Even though I suspected it is probably as you described, even better to have it laid out by someone.

140,000 GoxBTC are there in total, correct? And this doesn't mean that all of these would be sold in July. Or did I miss some news here? I know this is like throwing a dart blindly, but my guess is that less than half would be sold. If I own 100 Bitcoin from Mt. Gox and I receive them in July and bought them for literally nothing back at the time, I wouldn't sell all of them. If it is life-changing money, I would definitely sell some. But the industry and the entire market has become so enticing that I would make sure I stay in the market with a significant portion of my holdings. How lucky can you get to get robbed off your coins, couldn't sell them at 1k, 2k, 10k, 30k, 50k, etc. Now they get their coins and there are certainly some people going to sell. But those who hold like more than 10 or so, I don't think they will sell off in one move.

But as we know, it is all about herd behavior and it could indeed frighten the market for a little while. But recovery will happen for sure and I believe the buyers of those Mt. Gox Bitcoin and those that dump along with those Mt. Goxers, consider this a temporary discount.

This type of thing is the reason why I never worry about the future because while it is of course sad to see a possibility of bulk sales, it's also a real thing that we are talking about bear periods in crypto that are much worse than any of this. Remember, we were at around 69k or so in 2021 peak time, and then dropped as low as 16k, nothing in the world even if the worst thing could happen, won't make it drop that much, and only the bear period can do that.

It all means, today, mtgox or any other bad thing you can think of, they would all make it drop a bit that's true, but not as bad as the bear period. But have we recovered from the bear period? We have, we went back to 70k+ and broke a new all time high, so do not have any worry.

Well, from what I read in the last week about the issue, the following amounts are expected:

- About 95.000 BTC could be redistributed "early", i.e. during July, according to Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research.
- Also according to Galaxy Research, from these 95.000, 30.000 would go to claim funds and Bitcoinica BK. These are unlikely to be sold.
- So there are 65.000 BTC which could, in the worst case, be sold during the month of July, if all MtGox creditors sell 100% of what they get. That's about 4 billion USD - about 20% of a "normal" daily trading volume like today (22 million according to Coingecko).

In this article some more details can be seen.

If only people stand their ground, anticipated dips like when Mt Gox starts paying their creditors would have been avoided. The problem with many is that they're too fearsome. They're imagining too much. So instead of supporting Bitcoin and continue to hodl to somehow act as shock absorber or to damage control the Mt Gox payout, they themselves cause a self-prophecy. There is a dip because everybody was selling because a dip was expected. As a result dips happen even before the anticipated dips.

So for me, I believe this could be the reason why we experienced some dumps recently that led to $60,000 level.
What happening right now is more like "buy the rumour, sell the news". Which the dumps is already happened before the event or after the event.

So its bad news make bitcoin suddenly dropping under $60k last two days ago? Mt.Gox still make many people panic behind several time announce refund bitcoin assets to their member but still only promising and I can't memorize well how many time some information publishing Mt.Gox will refund bitcoin assets to their member.

Actually I don't sure yet with Mt.Gox have schedule refund on next month behind how many time give fake promised to their member, its only way how to make FUD and many people panic for selling their bitcoin get anticipation more decreasing of bitcoin price later if Mt.Gox surely make refund of bitcoin. Three days left before July and waiting will its only way to make FUD or Mt.Gox make their promise true by refunding their member bitcoin assets indeed distribute not all at once.

Is there a need to worry about the MtGox payment in July? I laugh out loud at people who shiver at any slightly negative news they hear about bitcoin, making them sell off all of their bitcoin holdings without considering the state of the market, which shows that whatever fall bitcoin experiences, there are investors interested in buying more.

MtGox's Bitcoin sale will only have an impact on the price of bitcoin for a few weeks, in other weeks, the price will return to normal, and can even increase. However, I think this bitcoin sale by MtGox will be nothing serious that will dump bitcoin at the same time

Thanks!

But maybe the amount they hold in wallets doesn't have to be equal to what they are set to distribute.
I wasn't Mt Gox's customer and I don't have a clue on the bankruptcy details, but I remember it was reported years ago that liabilities to creditors have been denominated in fiat currency (I believe it was Japanese Yen) at the bitcoin's market value at the time. So when Bitcoin started to go sharply up, it turned out that the stash the Mt Gox had left was not only enough to satisfy all creditors, but Mark Karpeles could actually end up with a massive profit.
I don't know how that unfolded though. I hope that creditors managed to get their holdings to be considered in bitcoins, not fiat, but if some of them opted to be compensated in fiat years ago, then it's possible that only a portion of that 141,687 will get distributed.

I believe the impact of Mt. Gox redistribution event is more psychological than practical. When you know large sums of Bitcoin are going to be dropped for sale on the market, the impact is much more devastating and negative than when such sales happen in a daily basis without any previous warnings or expectations.

Add this to the boost given by the media which keeps sharing these news in alarming contexts to the public. It leads to a wave of fear and pessimism among investors, who will also tend to add more coins for sale. That is when the scenario gets really bad on short term.

If investors kept in mind the redistribution made by Mt. Gox corresponds to a minor portion of BTC negotiations, we would have the practical effect only, which is minimal. However, fear is an infectious disease, and the media is the main contagious agent. Unfortunatelly, very few individuals have developed autoimmunity against it, so you can expect the psychological conditions to have a noticeable effect over market's fluctuations.

141687 BTC
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1AsHPP7WcGnDLzxW2bUa2FcbJP3eZVEqpx
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/16eAGJEjqsUqngMfcysQECvp7TMU37P9gX
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1HeHLv7ZRFxWUVjuWkWT2D5XFbXXvHoV68

142,846 BCH
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin%20cash/address/1Ci9S6XfXSVk3WpyPVM8eqXJ4NfWZhY37

I don't understand why some authors still speculate on the amounts, we had hundreds of pages from the bankruptcy claims and trustee plan, and all the finances are out in the open to the last yen, why so much confusion?
Again, up to this date they haven't sold or distributed a thing!

Do we even have any reliable information on the whole Mt Gox distribution thing?
Some media are reporting that the actual number of bitcoins is not clear and can be anything from 65,000 to 140,000:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mt-gox-finally-repaying-customers-155925395.html

And, whatever the number is, I don't expect it will be distributed all at once, so it could start from July, but could span over many months (if not years).

But somehow I'm not worried too much about that, I don't think it has any potential of crashing the market, I think we could expect a few percent drop at the worst.

BTC price action is trying to break its downtrend, I'd say be bullish with caution.  Its very risky below 63k but if we dont lose 60.8k then possibly we have a flag pattern that can resolve upwards possibly.

63k is near to the weekly average, its above a fibonacci level relating to the old ATH and layers of volume built around there.  I think thats the pivotal price to say mt. gox or any other selling has been disregarded.

My overall ongoing stance until we break range is that we got something like dust devil action right now.   Alot of motion not much going on as we are just turning in circles waiting for resolution.  I do presume upwards eventually but near term 63k to this slight positive above 61k is where I'm looking.  I'll take the daily bars more seriously, we remain below the 50 day average.

And how do you know they haven't sold their claims?
Everyone that had BTC on MtGox will receive BTC+BCH+yen for their coins, the last rehabilitation plan saw to this, the only ones that got cash were the ones having fiat on the exchange. So nobody but maybe the trustee himself knows how much the ownership of the claims has changed from then.

Anyhow, the three addresses with coins are still sitting idle, they haven't moved their coins for a month already and I doubt any exchange has the liquidity to deal with that without touching them, just using their cold wallets so unless those moves there will be no selling either.

Oh, and the BCH address is the same, completely untouched, if we go by the assumption that the holders are truly BTC and not BCH believers that would have to be dumped even faster on the market.

At least I think the FED meeting prevented new ATHs and caused the general weak price evolution last week, but there is a strong argument that it wasn't the main reason for the Monday drop under 60000: the timing. The deepest fall came after the MtGox announcement. This probably triggered further liquidations, in particular after the price approached 60000.

If the MtGox announcement came instead in a period of stronger bullish price action it could indeed have been less impactful. But both in the Wall Observer and in the main crypto media everybody talked about the Goxcoins, so I'm quite sure that this caused at least a big part of the Monday dip.

I fully agree with this part of your post.

And I would even go further: every time such a big "stash" of coins is paid out or its situation normalized, a potential "Damocles sword" less is threatening the market, or in other words, there's a reason less for FUD and panicking. If we are wrong and more Goxcoins are sold and drive the BTC price deep below the 60k mark, I would be sure that this could be an excellent buying opportunity (of course if there are no further fundamental reasons for this hypothetic drop).

For the same reason I'm not so enthusiastic about the new US ETFs piling up lots of BTC. While the BlackrockCoins have a very different character than the Goxcoins or the BKAcoins or the SilkroadCoins, if one of the entities managing the ETFs were in danger of bankruptcy, even if the BTCs are not in danger, it's very likely we could see strong outflows in a very short time due to customers panicking.

I am not surprised, I've always known that people often hype the market situation than it is, but at the same time, the reason for the current selling is more than any single scope. If solely I should draw the conclusion from what you explained, it is just something that is insignificant. Let's assume that a $9B would be moved out of Bitcoin, and so? Many more volumes are often moved in and out in many days of ordinary trading activities, so this can't hurt anything ordinarily. But still, the market does not view everything the way you do at times, this is why, at times, a mere rumour could move the market significantly, while true news with even more devastating data may move it less, the market is funny.

This is where market psychology comes into play and it works in relation to the market sentiments. Now, the current market sentiment is extremely bearish, so the implication is that the news that would have had an impact of $9B may end up having an impact of over $45B or more. This is the way the market works.

It is just like the vehicle in a sloppy position, only a finger push could make it move so much, something that can't ordinarily happen if it was positioned differently. I hope you under this!

You are on point. The corrections has been neutralized from what I see and the price gradually moving upward. I am quite sure that in the past few hours, so many people who are new to the market were predicting and maybe even selling due to fear that it might drop far below $58K. Let's see what happens in the next few hours and hope it climbs further.

I agree with you on this though, not having any experience at all makes it had for you to persist and in times like this, you either bank on other person’s experience or take comfort in historical data to hold on to your precious Bitcoins. Just yesterday it was reading numbers that weren’t promising and now, it’s pumping a little bit, showing that the correction that was been done on the market is past and we could be heading right back towards an uptrend. I never expected it to go below $58k and am proud to see the correction been reversed.

Majority of people will perceive this as if the Bull market is over if we go further below $58k, we are in a period of time where experience is differciated from knowledge, only people that has experienced from the past Bull market cycles would understand the game beacausec there's usually the last panic sell before the main event and which I believe that this is likely going to be the last dip and the last chance we would have to buy Bitcoin in such a cheaper price.

Why do you think that people who sold yesterday were panicking due to Gox news? We knew Gox coins were being prepared since April when the coins were moving and there were some statements from the liquidators that they are in the final stage. People were even speculating when the price dropped a bit in April that it might be first wave of Gox coins already being sold.

IMO the reason for the drop was the FED meeting, because we started moving down since they said there will be only 1 cut later this year.
That started a slow process of long positions being liquidated and people who invested in ETFs in hope of making money on coming rate cuts pulling back.
I'm not amazed that Wall Street did a 180 degrees turn because most of these people want to make money ASAP and Nvidia went up 15% in the last month while bitcoin moved by less than 5% (69k-72k) in the same time. So they said fuk it, stocks are doing better lets move money elsewhere.

Gox coins aren't going to flood the market. If you think that everything that Gox gives back to people will be dumped, think again. Most of these people had years to sell their claims and did nothing, patiently waited for the money to be returned to them, so many of these people are bitcoin believers. They thought that it would go up, so they wanted the real thing and were willing to wait a few years for it.
If 50% of them sell I'm going to be surprised.

A scientific analysis of market movements indeed should take into account market depth. But meaningful data about market depth evolution is difficult to obtain it seems (I have already searched and asked here for that, if you know a source a link is much appreciated).

So for a simple forum post I reccur sometimes to assumptions.   A day with 50% more volume than "normal" is probably caused by people adding massively sell or buy orders, influencing market depth in this process. Most of yesterday's movement (until I wrote that post) was downwards, so it was quite obvious that more sell orders were added than buy orders. And the value of all additional sell orders probably exceeded 9 billion if the volume was 15 billion more than "normal".

It is of course possible that the 15 billion additional orders were all wash trading, but it's highly unlikely.

9 billion does matter, in my opinion (based on the data on yesterday's dump, which was about 9% in the moment of its maximum panic) it would cause about a 5-7% dump of the price in a similar (sideways to slightly bearish) market situation ... if everything was sold 100% and the same day (highly unlikely). Of course, if more people panic while the coins are sold, the crash can be deeper. But the Goxcoins and BKAcoins alone would probably not be enough to cause a really deep crash (let's say 20% or so).

First of all, all those MT Gox users must be following the market for so many years and they know that the bull market season is very near and hence we expect that not everyone will try to sell as soon as they get those bitcoins.
Secondly, there are so many investors and buyers in the market that they will absorb this selling pressure and the market may not dump as much as everyone is expecting.

Just like sell the news event, i think this time bitcoin will pump instead of dumping and surprises most of the people who have opened short positions in anticipation to this event.

I appreciate this thread because when I see the market panicking it confuses me if people do their research when they hear rumors or news to understand what is going to happen. When MtGox will payout in July, everybody is not going to sell, most people will be hodling because they know they can get more value if they hodl for Bitcoin to reach a new highest price for this market cycle. It is the fear in the traders that tanks the market and not the people that will receive the Bitcoin. Before the payout happens people will begin to speculate a dip without knowing that if everybody was hodling strong and buying, the payout in July would not have any impact on the market. The market has the volumes to make the sell pressure from the people that will be selling to not be noticed.

So this means that even if everyone would see all their coins it would still not matter because that's just monthly volume? 

Volume is meaningless without market depth!
I always said that if I had 2 1l  bottles and I would pour 1litre of water from one to another relentlessly I would transfer 10,000 liters with ease (volume),  but it takes just 1 additional liter of water (the dump) dumped in the same bottle to overflow (market depth) and spill (yesterday's crash).

Oh, and btw if you think that 9 billion doesn't matter at this volume, doesn't this also imply we need some 100 billion to go up in a meaningful way?

Is the MtGox coins distribution even true?
We've heard of this news many times but they were never really distributed. Same with cryptopia coins, where most of those who still have coins in there are not expecting them anymore. Even the FTX users may not even expect them anymore.

But if it's true this time though, I think it could really spark the panic and still sell their coins. Seem a human nature already to sell when there is a threat to the price.

My current tinfoil hat theory, is that all of this going on for the last weeks to instill fear into the mtgox coin owners so more sell when the time comes.

Main point about Gox is there is no real shock effect, we know and have known for so long.  Its in the price already, Im more wary about news and negatives that are still to come.   Politics, economics, natural disasters anything at all can arrive today and we had no idea previously.

The price drew near to the 200 day average but did not touch.  In fact we improved on the May low so far and its bounced some.  The measure of strength comes from that quality in the bounce, repeated selling from there will have us touch the 200 day average.

  I expect now or at some point this year the 200 day average is where we determine strength.  As 200DMA is rising, its a point of interest repeated from here on until BTC can accelerate upwards properly or possibly fail and pass below when then proven weak.

The one thing that nobody talks about is how much of the MtGox stuff CAN'T be sold quickly.
Some people have died and it's in a trust and it has to go though the estate.
Some people owe money and it's going to their creditors after it goes through the courts.
And so on.

Some people are getting so little vs their 'real' holdings that it's not worth selling.

And so on.

-Dave

And it just shows the that ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunting us after so many years. But still even if everyone sold, it might not put a dent on the market as others might have suggested. We should also cast doubts that in one day everyone is going to sell.

I think those who are going to received their Bitcoin might be thinking of not just selling just for the sake of taking the money. I mean they have been waiting, it's true, but what is to wait till next year when the price goes to 6 digits, which mean more profit for them so it doesn't make sense to dump it in July.

Sometimes it's pittiable to see that there are people who still don't understand the market derivation and how it's being controlled over the time and of course we know that it's not stable as expected but we should think that it's a natural thing that occurrs in the market where price aren't always stable instead some form of news could hit the market were the minor trader don't mind selling off their holdings to take profits and secure their asset from draining below what they already had at currently given more strength to the whales who are only looking for smallest opportunity to accumulate more bitcoin to their portfolios.

Can't say much but it should be a simple maths to digest in, that a single entity in the person of Mt Gox can't bring a strong fall against the resilience of bitcoin long term hodlers.  Bitcoin is too large for a one single fellow to shake the chain. Maybe small weak hands may wither learning about what July holds about the Mt Gox BTCsale but it's all a distraction towards the bull run.

I am thinking right now that the price may go down since traders will believe that all the bitcoins Mt.Gox plan to release in July will be sold on centralized exchanges, and that will make them to short the market irrespective of what the current holders of those bitcoins decide to do. Is there anyone who have had this thought crossed their minds too?

Further reminders to anyone who still thinks a single entity selloff makes a lasting impact. Gox panic is old, yet it still makes people worry. MicroStrategy panic probably still has the same psychological effect but equally impermanent market rub, if any.

Move along now.

Some strategies have been known to work in these times where there are expectations on the market. The halving is just a couple of weeks behind us and many including myself are still in expectation of the bullrun to kick in and as such, a lot of manipulations could be done to push weak hands to panic sell so that, a lot of others could accumulate. This could obviously be some of that situation where, the market is been flooded with coins to dump it, just to buy back from a low and have it pump in no time.

It would be a pity for those that would be selling at this time due to the depleting price of Bitcoin on the market. I think this could be the fall before the rise as, I never thought we would find price within the $60k zone no more but price at the moment is just a little bit below $60k.

So you are panicking due to MtGox's payments in July? With 140.000 BTC flooding the market, driving the price of Bitcoin to 0, or just close to that?

Well, think again.



Today the Bitcoin trading volume was around 45 billion. As you can see here in the historical data, in most of the past days the Bitcoin trade volume was around 20-30 billion on weekdays and 10-15 billion on weekends (ignore the volume today, it's incomplete), with one exception being June 19 with 41 billion.

We can thus safely assume that 10 to 15 billion more Bitcoins were traded today than on a "normal" day of the week.

Now, were these coins bought or sold? Well, the price is telling us that the vast majority were sell orders.

The 140,000 GoxBTC are currently (at ~$60.000) worth slightly less than 9 billion.

This means that today the panicking Bitcoin holders sold more coins than all the Goxcoins that will be sold in July.

Draw your own conclusions

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07-05-24: Edited title. Again: MtGox hasn't paid out a single Bitcoin, and panicking weak hands sold about 400.000 BTC this time  (Explanation in other post.)