Topic: Today (June 2nd) is the crucial day for end of downtrend (Read 580 times)

It will go dooooooooooown!
There is nothing that can be done about the down trend, when you look at the books there is hundreds of millions worth on longs.
They will be closed if the price rises even by just a bit...
While if price goes down nothing will counter that. Especially considering the production of btc...

Well, you will just have to get used to it mate. However, this is a critical moment for bitcoin right now and there is a serious level of uncertainty going on in the market as to which point bitcoin will actually be heading towards. So far though, it seems there is that need to push towards around $8300 like the OP mentioned, and nothing much to expect as well after then. Let's see how the coming days will end up being like but for now, there is no serious optimism to even trade the market at all.

Almost three or four complete days have passed but today also we had downtrend. I am also deliberately expecting the end of down trend of bitcoin markets but it is going to be half of this year but no changes in market trend from the beginning of this year.

2nd June has passed and the downstream is still there. Some people say nonsense about the future of bitcoin because they have no study of market and have no idea about the coming situation. Bitcoin is not hold by someone who says that the price will be this till that particular date. It totally depends upon the investment of the people and nothing else.

the market doesn't seem to be ready for the rise yet and it may not be ready for a month or two either. the good news is that price keeps on touching the $7700 and afterwards it doesn't drop that much. usually when we see a rise fail like this case we see a big dump happening possibly to keep the price down but for now there is no dumps but nobody is buying bitcoin at higher prices either hence the stuck status.

All the people who involved in bitcoin want end of downstream, but till today bitcoin not favor them. I hope in the near future the price will grow again but not sure about the exact time. If more and more people invest in bitcoin in the near future the price will increase but if people avoid investing in bitcoin or withdrawing their money the price may fall or remain the same as today.

I am really expecting bitcoin to perform better second half this year. If we are breaking fast $8,000 this early then we can see a good rally until another test in $8,500 and a possible correction. But I think we are really going up this time and of course some corrections that we hope only small so as not to destroy its trend.

If there will be a price drop then it was not a bad news, it only means that we will be having more time to invest a huge amount since the prices is decreasing and we can wait for the price to go back to normal in order to earn more profit in the future.

Yes the second half of this year might have the answer for this,hopefully it will break the resistance and move forward to the new all time high in this year.All we havr to do is buy now because if the price starts to move then it will be rapid growth like happened in 2017 so make hay while the sun shines.

Well I hope that we won't see any downtrend because its really tiring to see the price goes on another pullback after enjoying a break out run. Today looks like we are going to test $8000 as its pushing along the $7700-$8000 mark which is a good uptrend sign. I'm not pressuring the price to go to 5 digit again, but I wanted to see at least a bullish trend breaking $8000-$8500 barrier and see how it goes on the next coming months. Gonna be interesting in the next coming days if resistance and support broken and see where the price will settled.

If you didn't buying now , just prepare to feel regret later on. I see some steady movement in Bitcoin market , it's around 1 month period to get dropped and the next month get a sudden up! Just look at The last 3 / 4 months ..

1-6 March , around $10k
1-6 April , down to around $6.5k
1-6 May , try to break $9.7k we didn't make it
1-6 June , down to $7.5k

Based on the data provided above we can see that the market struggling to get out of bear trends , we keep on declining , in next few weeks we should get an answer whether we would break the resistance or the bearish would remain there. So next month are the real movement not now.

And it has gone back up to above $7600+ as at the time I checked which means the market volatility is not something anyone can just look at and determine this is the next line of action or this is the pattern price will go. What Op did was to just predict based on the current situation or the amount of information he had access to at the time and holding him to be accountable by check prices to prove him wrong is being willingly ignorant of the dynamics of the market.

I certainly think there are signs that we won't see a downtrend this month. That sign is that bitcoin just broke out of last month's downtrend. If it hadn't then I'd be agreeing with you, but that just isn't the case. Right now the signs put to an uptrend for June. July may very well experience a downtrend again, who knows. But the signs for june all point to an uptrend.

Every one is expecting what you think and posted here. I don't think June month is the end of Bitcoin price down trend since crypto currency market is always volatile and anything can happen any time. May be post July the price of Bitcoin may rise and see a good trend as per my prediction because there is no sign that this month the Bitcoin price will not see a down trend.

Purely guess work right now, but longer term since the current wedge is more bullish than the descending line of the big crash, I think we could see another more bullish shift in the next two months as the wedge closes. Maybe another several-month long trend will begin shortly that is a bit bullish and takes us to $12k or so by end of summer, with a support line at $11k by end of summer.

Yeah that was just a correction after Bitcoin gained 10% in recent days. It's now back to 7600s just $100 below what it was before that one-day correction. Even during that correction it never fell back below the resistance line of the May downtrend, so the breakout sustained itself.

I would expect another move up to just under 8000 in by end of the week. And I think we'll see low 8000s next week. Like I said, mid-8000s I think is the target, at which point it might drop again if it stays in this big wedge for a bit longer, or if it breaks out of that we could see $10k tested again by end of the month. Alternatively of course it after going to mid-8000s it could stay in the wedge and then break down below it and we could revisit the 6000s. I don't know if its just wishful thinking or if it's because I think we'll see gradual growth the rest of this year, but a breakout above the wedge seems much more likely to me than a breakout below it.

My trading setup is currently I'm essentially all in, I'm selling from $7800 - $8300. And will probably buy back in after some of those sells anytime a correction comes before it hits that last sell at 8300. I'll then wait to see if it breaks through mid-8000s, if it does I'll put some of my money in to sell in the 9000s, keeping some off the table in case what looks like a breakout is just a trap. If it corrects downward from mid-8000s I'd probably pick up a bit in the low 8000s in case its just a correction before breaking out, but i'd set most of my buys in the mid 7000s, maybe some in the high 7000s, as at that point the bottom of the support of the wedge should be about 7400. I'd keep a reserve stash too just in case it breaks down below the wedge's support.

Longer wedge trend and the May downtrend broken out of:


With the likely possibilities:

So, following OP's analysis, the downtrend could last a bit longer, right? although, to me it looks like this is a pullback before trying to test the 7.7k resistance level that another user mentioned above. But with current bearish sentiment surrounding the market, I don't expect any major upward movements in the upcoming days, maybe some consolidation around the current levels. (between 7k-8k).

Down to 7530 USD

I think that we all are hoping to see it happening, i am more than tired of seeing my funds in a decreased way, i am tired of always seeing the same, let's hope for that.

It's not a crucial day. There's still some resistance at $7.7k, which is the major resistance that you said to be watching. Prices were around that level yesterday, however, prices early in the day today have taken a 1.5% hit so the short term future remains somewhat uncertain.

But I agree, if bitcoin does break $8k within the next few days, then I feel like there is a high likelihood that we're going to test the $10k resistance again. Though I don't think that there is enough momentum in the market to propel it above that level just yet.

Loading up at $7-8k would be a pretty good price for the long term anyways, but if bitcoin does break $7.7-7.8k, it would make sense to make the trade to buy at those levels at sell at near $9-10k where the major resistance is to take advantage of the swings in price.

I dont know what exchange you look at, but the price is still at 7700, it has certainly not fallen below 7500.

Never said yesterday was the start of the bull market haha. I just said if it closes above a certain amount (which it did) that means it broke the downward resistance line that has been in action since a month ago, and this should signal that Bitcoin will rise back up near the top of the longer term wedge its been operating in for the past 4 months (especially since it just bounced off the bottom of that wedge at around $7000). Nothing about a breakout bull market. Just stating that if it follows the pattern of the past few months it should go to mid-8000s soon now that it has indeed just broken the May downtrend resistance line.

Also on a longer 1 to 2 month timescale there is a closing wedge on bitcoin price actoin that will be closing in just under two months. TA would suggest that before it gets very near that point (so likely in the next month) it is either going to break out of that wedge distinctly downward (into the 6000s and maybe even 5000s) or distinctly upwards back to the $10k resistance. So TA suggests heading back to mid-8000s is likely in the next two weeks, and either a break down to ~6000 or a break up to challenge $10k will happen at the latest in July. A break above $8500 this month would suggest its going to test $10k soon afterward, a break below low-7000s this month (after the rise to mid-8000s) would suggest we could see $6000 soon afterward.

So in terms of trading, buy now, sell in low-to-mid 8000s. Wait. If it decisively breaks 8500 buy back in, sell mid-to-high 9000s and wait to see if it breaks $10k. Or if it decisively breaks below 7000 sell and buy back likely in the low 6000s.

Not trying to predict any long term trend here. Just using TA on the next two months given the current patterns that have been forming and that bitcoin just escaped the May downtrend the past 48 hours.

Yes something happened then, Could you please share that what force the market trend to bull suddenly ?

I've been short term bullish since the May 28th bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. I agree with the OP that breaking the downtrend line from $9,990 is another short term bullish confirmation, but for me, it's only short term.

Until we break the $10K barrier, a bearish triangle is still in play. Right now, we are hypothetically in the final intra-triangle bounce pictured here:

Not really. Even if bitcoin was able to gain some momentum this month, I doubt that any rally would be a long-lasting one under these bearish market conditions. I simply don't think that this bear market would be able to conclude within this month.

But as you said, if we see $8k or higher within the start of the month it's probably going to signal for a pump, albeit a small one.

I wouldn't say that it's a crucial day for end of the bear market, or anything like that. There is simply no evidence to suggest that we're going to welcome a bull market this soon, in my opinion.

It depends. If we look at how in a relatively calmer market mostly only somewhat skilled traders are doing their thing, technical analysis may come handy and turn out to be useful. Only when the speculation circus starts moving again, and noobs and gamblers start becoming active, technical analysis becomes worth less with every day the uncertainties become stronger. Good thing is that we don't have to force ourselves to keep staring at the price every day. I am not invested with a short term mindset, and I am not looking to execute any trades, so there is no point for me to focus on what the market is doing. I mostly don't check prices intentionally, but just see the latest prices when reading through news sites and such.

I don't really believe in technical analysis to predict bitcoin price. It has already been proven that BTC price is unpredictable.
All these charts and triangles and other stuff are really nice but they don't really mean anything.

Personally, I am a pessimist for the next days. I won't be surprised to see the price going under $7,000. Recently I am waiting July and August to see what will happen for Bitcoin

TA, which you implicitly refer to here, doesn't work very well in the cryptoverse. As much as I myself want the prices to rise and shine again, like the full moon (or even like the sun lol), there is always some dude hiding behind with a big stash of bitcoins always ready to dump them on our heads when the price ever starts to recover. I suspect the proverbial G-Man (the Gox guy) has plenty of bitcoins in his pockets yet.

To summarize, prepare for unforeseen consequences.

not to worry we will soon reach $ 8k in the next few days. keep an eye on the state of the market, with circumstances like this we are easy to take advantage.

Yes true.

Obviously I'm talking about the ~2 months, as I clearly stated in my opening post.
Just going by the closing wedge that Bitcoin has been in for like 4 months now. The wedge reaches a point in late July, and we just came off the support line of it right around $7000, and by breaking decisively above 7500 yesterday Bitcoin broke the month long downtrend resistance line that was capping it for all of May. So with that broken all I'm saying is that Bitcoin will likely rise back up in the next couple of weeks to the resistance line of this 4 month wedge (which will be around $8500. At that point it'll either fall to stay in the wedge (though the wedge is closing in 8 weeks so I think a breakout is likely this month) or break out above $8500 and if it does then the next major resistance is at $10k.

So given that yesterday did indeed break the May downward resistance, we're likely to see low-to-mid 8000s in the next couple of weeks, and if it breaks decisively above 8500 in a couple weeks then a mid-to-high 8000s buy in with a mid-to-high 9000s sell target is a good bet. Otherwise if it breaks down in the mid 8000s a mid-7000s buy target is a good setup again as it would likely head back near the bottom of the wedge at that point. Just some basic TA for the next month or so given the trends of the past few months.

Not nothing happened. The Bitcoin Cash is rising faster than the Bitcoin now. Maybe the Bitcoin will catch up.

Are you receiving real time updates about the intentions of every single BTC buyer on the whole planet?

We got an unprecedent on our hands here, folks. I for one am seriously, seriously impressed.

And neat little call for today at least, OP.

Not to forget, after that there is 700, 250, 99 and finally the $1 support could break. Have fun

what OP is saying (specifically in the end paragraph) mostly concerns the day traders and those who want to make a profit in a very short term from ups and downs not a longer term trader like those who are trading mostly as a hobby or a second job and certainly not the long term investors. for these waiting for a bigger sign and a bigger movement is a better idea.

we currently have a slow creep up towards $8000 (currently at $7734) and the $8k resistance is still there to prevent the big rise but if it is broken in the next 24 hours i can see the rise taking place like the past time we were here and a $1000 rise in 1 hour happened after $6900ish to $8000 this time it will be to $9000+

I don't know it will increase or not but if that increases to some significant level then it can bring trust on the investors because last year also the price starts to go crazy after the first half of year so prople will think that it will happen again.

The thing that happened was it reaching 7700!  It has now broken up above the month long resistance. I said if it ends the day above 7500-7600 then we know we have an outbreak and it'll head back to the top of the channel. And we got a decisive break upwards today, up to 7700s now, clearly above the resistance. It's exactly what I said.

Maybe you're looking at a different chart haha. Exactly what I said would happen is happening. The downward trend was broken and Bitcoin is now heading upwards. It's over 7700 now. The downward resistance line from this past month was down at 7500-7600. It's broken through that and like my initial post said, it will likely head to 8500 now over the next couple weeks. At that point we'll see if it has the strength to break through the longer term resistance or if it'll stay in this wedge longer. Not sure why you call that bad analysis. Seems to be pretty dang good analysis so far.

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

these are critical days only because we are in a wedge that we don't know which way it is going to go and when it comes to bitcoin it can go anywhere even if the chart is showing you some other possibility.
i say we need to see the $8k level before starting to get excited and talk about where it is going to go or we need to see the $7000 be broken if we are to talk about possibility of drops. otherwise get comfortable here with small ups and downs.

There`s no evidence that bitcoin will bounce back to 10K USD.
Your post is only about "if the btc price reaches 8,5K USD,it will go back to 10K USD".This doesn`t prove anything and it`s not what I call a good analysis.Today is June 3rd and the price is still around $7640.
Nothing important occured on June 2nd.

Bitcoin is at ~$7640 right now. It's right at the resistance line of the downtrend that has been happening the past month from $9900. It could still bounce off resistance at these levels and drop down again, signaling that the drop will last a bit longer. But if the price makes another move up today that will clearly signal it has broken the month long down trend and we should possibly $8500 by mid-June.

Longer term, a wedge has been forming the past several months, that wedge comes to a point in late July. Right now we just came off the bottom of this wedge right around $1000. The top of it right now is around $8500. So at sometime in the next 30-45 days Bitcoin will probably break out of it decisively, if it breaks out above $8500 that should signal a move to test the $10k resistance again. As long as it does definitely break this month long downtrend today/tomorrow I think there is a good chance to see it break out of the ~4 month wedge its been oscillating in and see another run at $10k in about a month.

So tomorrow (june 3rd), if Bitcoin is at least $7700, would be a great time to buy with a sell order in the low to mid 8000s, and then wait to see if it falls off the longer term resistance line, if it breaks above $8500 at that point, then that would be another good buy with a sell in the mid-to-high 9000s.