Topic: Top 100 wallets! (Read 2641 times)

What about Bitstamp? They've been quite big for a while, and they seem like the type that might not sell their coins. Also, I suspect they trade their own market. What do you think?

Latest top100：http://btc.ondn.net

I'm thinking the exchanges use unique addresses for the deposits so that they can keep track of who deposited how much.  I haven't followed any of my deposits or looked into it, but I don't know if mtgox would bother moving bitcoins between these unique addresses. 

Just wanted to be clear what inactive means.  It just means that only a few are continuing to receive coins at these addresses.  Of course people could be receiving coins elsewhere, but certainly these addresses have stopped accumulating so much in one address.  I won't be able to analysis on the other 1 million coins just yet.  I need to get back to studying/ relaxing for the weekend.  Gotta get my brain off bitcoins for a least a little while.

It looks like probably somebody whom placed a predetermined amount into individual wallets and stored each on a secure offline source like a usbkey for safe keeping (in regards to those multiple 10k accounts owned by the same person)

Great work kjlimo. Very interesting to learn that the majority of those wallets are inactive. They could well be wallets belonging to the exchanges. I would bet that many day traders just keep their coins stored on the exchange and don't withdraw many.

So I've been silent for 3 hours researching these Top 100 wallets:  Here's what I've got so far

There are 49 addresses that were on both Nov 12, 2011 & July 29, 2011 lists that 10,000+ coins on Nov 12, 2011.

I've been focusing on these addresses which, as of Nov 12, 2011, have 961k bitcoins. (about 1/7.7th or approx 12% of existing coins).

Some things to note:

- 12 addresses (each with 10,000 exactly) performed consolidation/movement amongs similar addresses on May 4, 2011 and December 19, 2011 leading me to believe this is the same person.

- 2 other addresses (each with 10,000 exactly) did the same thing on April 2, 2011, leading me to believe this is the same person.

- 2 other addresses (one with 15k & the other with 20k) moved coins on July 1, 2011 & Sept 7, 2011, leading me to believe this is the same person.

This means these 49 addresses likely represent less than 36 people (could be less).

I would only classify 2 of these addresses as "active" meaning these addresses are continually trading coins so that it's too difficult to put a single date on when they've "acquired" their coins and started hoarding/saving.

All the rest of the addresses acquired most of their coins by one or two dates and are sitting around hoarding/saving.  To be fair, with this many coins, I'm not sure how many products/services can be purchased for 10,000+ coins.  I don't think car dealers are accepting bitcoins yet and I haven't found too many sites with actual large screen tv's ($5,000+) available.

Of the remaining 31 addresses, 8 have been hoarding/saving 152k bitcoins since some date in 2010.

Of the remaining 23 addresses, 12 have been hoarding/saving 300k bitcoins since between January and May 2011. (note this includes one 53k address that cycled through a few single addresses several times leading back to a miner/buyer from between Jan/Mar 2011 who I'm assuming is the same person moving money around in June 2011)

Of the remaining 11 addresses, 8 have been hoarding/saving 204k bitcoins since June 2011.

The remaining 3 addresses have acquired 135k bitcoins after June 2011 and before Nov 12, 2011.

I think this shows that while there are some accounts with large amounts of hoarded coins from back in 2010, that it's not everyone.  There are large players that likely entered the marketplace after June or during June of this year.

The top 100 list has represented 2 million bitcoins consistently since July 29, 2011.  We'll want to watch this list to see if it changes hands, even though this could just be people splitting up their wallets like the 16 addresses in this list.  I don't see anything too alarming.

Next, I'll research the other 25 "new" addresses on Nov 12, 2011 with 10,000+ coins (total of 1,065,960 bitcoins or about 14% of existing coins) which weren't on the July 29, 2011 listing.

Just for the hell of it, i tried tracing back where the funds of the largest account came from, i ended here (keep going if you want)

http://www.blockchain.info/block-index/808001/000000000000037934903d88a5e7eaa7825e126635f6c09ec817d927b90c5ecb

this one leads to that one...

http://www.blockchain.info/address/2feb468694c11cd06dd771a999342ab3ddc626ab

and this to that...

http://www.blockchain.info/address/cd8d1eefaf01baf1893accb03368cef36642f7bb

and so forth..

http://www.blockchain.info/address/a53b11043c078c1fae8e4171133af5141f741738

edit: i followed back a large majority back to here where he consolidated his accounts (on 2011-01-27): http://www.blockchain.info/address/68c140db0fc73fa6d1f5600bd9888651cb7f7957

You guys do realize some of these may be pool wallets.

Makes no sense. There is a buyer at the end of every sale. And big sales like that are usually dumped into the bidwalls of a single individual, meaning large transfers of bitcoin from a large holder to a large buyer. If one of these addresses were to sell those coins, someone else would then be holding them then. Probably a single person. We can't just make them disappear.

Also, many of those wallets could belong to the exchanges, bitcoinica, mining pools or e-wallet businesses that hold large amounts of coins for users. In that case, those coins might not belong to any single individual, but are being stored in individual wallets for hundreds or potentially thousands of people.

So it is not correct to assume that they are solely bears or bulls, some of those wallets might in fact belong to people who do not necessarily care about the long term outlook, and are simply holding coins for other people and cannot do anything with them.

So the top 100 addresses have had about 2 million bitcoins since July 29, 2011.  I'm gonna guess these people fall into two categories:

Early adopters with bullish outlook
Early adopters with bearish outlook

The bulls are gonna hold on and are waiting for them to be worth $100 - 1,000,000 per coin so that they can be millionaires/billionaires and become famous/awesome.  Good for them and I hope they get there.

The bears are gonna try to unload their coins, but when you have that many, you can't just dump them or the market will crash.  So I'm sure they are slowly unloading during this downward spiral so as to not completely kill the market.

You'll notice I haven't included any not early adopters.  I'm gonna guess that no one bought 50,000 bitcoins for more than $5 a piece.

The addresses with 10,000 or 50,000 even are likely the people we heard podcasting in late 2010 or January 2011 who took $1,000 or $5,000 and bough some bitcoins for $0.1 or $0.20 a piece.  I'm sure half of those people jumped out at $5 or $10 / bitcoin and enjoyed their $50k windfall, but some are holding out for even more.  That's investing for ya.

The other addresses are likely the people with computers that have been running since January 2009.  Same thing applies, some probably jumped out with some or half their coins, but figure they'll hold out for that millionaire option.  It's tough to say no to 10-50k USD, but some people are likely holding out.

The list of these addresses hasn't changed much.  Only 20ish people come and go with each listing.  So we can continue to monitor.

you might be wrong think about it....

i would say the idiots are people with NO bitcoin in their wallet

Most of those guys holding that amount of bitcoins are idiots in my book. They should have long sold them off when the bitcoin price was above $10. They had the opportunity also.
I will assume that most of those wallets were probably filled early on, and nobody filled up that wallet after the fact. Either way, if you hold that many bitcoins now you are an idiot. You either bought to high, or didn't sell at the high.

on average it would seem mtgox has no more then 500k BTC vol. a week. so about 2750coins a week.

what do they do with these coins?

Sell them, most likely

12th November, These days changed too much.

If MTGox isn't one of them then I would be truly surprised. 0.55-0.6% on each end of the transaction= 1.1-1.2% of each transaction at a daily value of 360k bitcoins the other day pretty much spells it out. The real winner in all of this as in the real fiat currency world are the exchange brokers. In this sense Bitcoin is a failure since it was supposed to represent something other than this ideally.

One of them should be BCX's, he said he has more than 100k bitcoins.

top 100 wallets http://bitcoinreport.blogspot.com/


speculate how many of these wallets are owned by the same person