Trade war will benefit bitcoin. | Bitcointalksearch.org

jjacob

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 23, 2018, 02:43:34 AM

Quote from: jjacob on July 23, 2018, 02:11:44 AM

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

This need not necessarily be a driver for Bitcoin’S price. If a full fledged trade war breaks out, the global economy will slow down. Risk aversion will set in and all assets will lose value, with the risky ones plunging. Cryptocurrencies will definitely crash as well.

In theory.

Looking at FACTS, bitcoin was below 6000 when I started this thread and is now at 7500.

Correlation does not imply causation. Plus we are at the very initial stages of a trade war. It is only the United States which is bent on picking a fight with multiple countries. If this escalates, we could see the WTO becoming irrelevant and trade grinding to a halt.

Tyr808

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Quote from: jjacob on July 23, 2018, 02:11:44 AM

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

This need not necessarily be a driver for Bitcoin’S price. If a full fledged trade war breaks out, the global economy will slow down. Risk aversion will set in and all assets will lose value, with the risky ones plunging. Cryptocurrencies will definitely crash as well.

In theory.

Looking at FACTS, bitcoin was below 6000 when I started this thread and is now at 7500.

jjacob

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

This need not necessarily be a driver for Bitcoin’S price. If a full fledged trade war breaks out, the global economy will slow down. Risk aversion will set in and all assets will lose value, with the risky ones plunging. Cryptocurrencies will definitely crash as well.

snipie

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Bitcoin could be a relatively safe place to put and easily manage and move your money inside and outside the country without any external control. Trade war will have bad consequences on the goods price and with the devaluation of local money like it happened in China, life will get more expensive which could be counterbalanced by the rise of the bitcoin price comparing to USD.

Johnzky

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

Dont hey exaggerating the issues since we know Chinese government is communist and it will not that easy for their people to just put their money against the yuan that will literally bring the economy down.

Chinese has a big trust in the government and they know that this will never bring them down so life will continue

SpringfieldM1A

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

I am not sure if that "less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have crypto" a true information but if that is the case and if we can see a surge in Chinese users booming like back in the day for USA, than we can see another ATH from bitcoin.
Chinese are very important part of business world and if they can use bitcoin or any other crypto currency than that means we will see a lot more people wanting to buy bitcoin than number of people who are willing to sell which means price will go up very quickly.

audaciousbeing

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

For you to think the trade war will only put pressure on the Chinese people is rather one sided because no matter how small, both parties will feel the brunt of this action that their leaders are following and it could also safe to say that some US citizens might also want to put their funds into crypto because of the effect of trade war.

On the bolded, thinking because of the trade wars, it would automatically means putting money into crypto is just an overstretching assumption. It does not just work that way. The only set of people who might use that as an excuse, are those that are already involved with crypto and felt the best way to get a big ROI is to invest in crypto. It would even surprise you that the common man on the street might not even feel any of the effect of this wars as its only the elite that bothers themselves about the workings of economics because government of China I expect would be proactive in harnessing ways of cushioning the effect of this negative trade policy that would affect them.

player514

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

In the past, in times of trade wars, hard assets have done much better than currencies. Traditionally, gold has done well in times of turmoil. But you know what, now we have bitcoin. Bitcoin has a fixed supply. It acts exactly like a hard asset, exactly like a commodity. In the trade war, it does well. I think for BTC an alternative store of value it still needs a baseline value grounded in USD for the moment, but either way, I should probably rebalance a bit into BTC from Gold/ETH. We also have to also look at Trump and what policies he will say in relation to trade wars, since he has a huge influence especially with the US.

1Referee

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Even if so, the problem is that when people not knowing anything about crypto, not caring anything about crypto, temporarily jump into this market, they will surely exit later on and tank the market back down when times get better. The few crypto enthusiasts that don't end up cashing out won't be able to sustain the market at inflated levels. We need a more sustainable form of growth instead of hoping for the regular economy to temporarily make people shift from asset class.

We have enough past history to prove that bull runs based on temporary hype will tank back down as hard as they went up.

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I think crypto is way too fragile to be used as a hedge by large numbers if things get truly tight. That's a couple of decades away. Right now it's a plaything and a luxury. People in shaky economies will be looking for dollars.

The 'great bitcoin exodus' of cyprus and Greece was entirely existing pumpers. Real people wanted cash euros.

South Park

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 12:50:57 AM

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

Any political or economic instability will benefit bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies after all bitcoin is stateless, while there are some countries that are more influential than others when it comes to bitcoin the big advantage of bitcoin is that it is not issued by any government so when the economy begins to show signs of failing we are going to be unaffected by it and in fact we will benefit as more people realize this and try to find a safe haven.

Tyr808

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06/19/11 17:51 Bought BTC 259684.77 for 0.0101

Trade war will put pressure on the Yuan and Chinese people will try to get their money outside their country. Due to capital controls they will resort to putting their money into crypto to move their wealth and preserve it from yuan devaluation.
Right now less than 1 Chinese out of 1000 have cryptos.. would they jump into it in masse, this could create an unprecedented demand for bitcoin.

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