I'm located in San Francisco and if anyone wants to meet let me know. I think it's reassuring to shake hands and put a face to a name.
The big issue is for an exchange to function you need both funds (BTC and fiat) and the tech side.
The most likely negative response (from govt) would be on the funds and not the tech imo.
It's costly and not the early adopters idea of freedom but complying with regulations should allow exchanges to continue operating.
Exchanges will either start to act more like traditional financial institutions or become a target. While I don't like or agree with most of the rules personally I'm assuming most of the users would prefer we play by the rules than shut down.
It seems pretty clear to me that Tradehill has the technical side down well enough. I concluded that prior to and early in my deciding to be a customer.
I have nothing much against most of the rules that I am aware of at this time. And, as a customer of Tradehill, I am happy that you do follow them even when it inconveniences me. My goals are better served by your doing so.
My main concern is what happens if the rules become "Don't do anything which has anything to do with Bitcoin. Period." I would consider this to be not a reasonable set of rules and would hope that they would be worked around. It's a big world and I have every expectation that the service could be transformed and remain serviceable if there were both a will, and some forethought put into how it could be achieved.
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Your team's various appearances on Bruce's show went a long way toward my choosing Tradehill, and it is exactly the 'face to a name' principle that made it so for me. I happen to be in the South Bay very often these days. It would be cool to catch up with you sometime.
I'm normally right downtown and spend a lot of time in SOMA. Let me know when you're around.
I really don't anticipate the government saying "don't do anything with Bitcoin" if it gets way out of hand then maybe banks would but it's hard to say. It could become like Western Union or MO's where people say if someone asks for it then it's probably a scam. But seriously why would you take cash / WU / MO / BTC from someone that there is no accounting for. If someone is selling an ipod from nigeria don't send them any of those methods. That's the one time I suggest you use Paypal
Really I don't see a reason that it would become more regulated than cash or WU / MO. It's essentially all the benefits of those evolved.
I speak with the banks a lot and I get a lot of different opinions on where it's going. More than that I get blank stares. It's really anyone's guess but I personally don't expect it to be more regulated than cash in regards to money transmission for e-wallets / escrow / exchanges etc. It may be a while before everyone can agree on exactly what it is and how to fit it in there. It's going to become easier to classify as it's used more and more by 'normal' people.
My outlook on the regulation and acceptance of Bitcoin has actually improved recently. Still it's important to not underestimate the stupidity of the people who make the rules we all need to follow.