Topic: TRANSACTION MINING and TRADING - Can we anticipate a price dump or pump ? (Read 165 times)
July 14, 2021, 09:58:22 AM
I know that at least whale notifier on Twitter has a lot of followers. Most of the time, there will be a reply if the destination is an exchange address. But as others have mentioned, it's hard to calculate how much or how reliable the data is. Looking at the number of fud each day is probably better than following that tx alone.
July 14, 2021, 05:56:50 AM
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
I think most people don’t even check all these things that you’re talking about. For sure I do know that there are people who make use of some apps that notifies them of whale movements in the market, but most of the times you’re going to get that notification on huge transactions, nothing actually happens after that. Big funds are constantly being moved around on the blockchain, but things still stay balanced.This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
So, I cannot give you a sure answer on this, but I do know sometimes they can have an effect on the market to an extent. Why they will hardly affect the market now is because the market is huge this time, and I think you need something more than 1000 BTC to make every body start hitting the sell button.
July 14, 2021, 12:45:44 AM
Hello,
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Thanks
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Thanks
Based on my previous experiences, anticipation was too hard to figure out when fluctuations was too fast. It made me remember the old days I got for my tokens, unfortunately I've lost $10k woth of selling opportunity because having no proper knowledge about dump signs.
July 13, 2021, 08:40:04 PM
I no longer call it a joke because I started believing that it is a malicious attempt at market manipulation. It is the same strategy as the pump and dump groups when they call their sheep followers to buy or sell certain coin. They first amass some followers then they give them buy/sell signals but only for bitcoin trying to make money by capitalizing on the signals they artificially produce.
They moved old coins when the market needs a movement. I believe those guys have too many bitcoin and are very smart. They reserve their old bitcoin for future plans, for such movements. They are whales and their actions prove they are whales.Assume that they bought first 1000 Bitcoin at 5 cents, then bought 1000 Bitcoin later at $1. They had a plan for 1000 BTC at 5 cents, don't use it for years and only take profit, trade with 1000 BTC they bought at $1. After 10 years, their old coins have big power on the market.
After 20 or 30 years, the power might be bigger than now. Crazy plan.
Small investors will not make long term plan, and are not be able to reserve their old bitcoin for years. Small investors even struggle to complete their plans for a few months.
July 13, 2021, 02:26:25 AM
I think it is very difficult to be able to anticipate, if you can see the movements that the whales make but once they have been carried out.
July 12, 2021, 08:02:41 PM
Hello,
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Thanks
Probably there maybe an effect if there is a transaction of 50K BTC but its not actually mean the coins are traded, since transactions or trades or happening in off the blockchain so it may give some alert but also it will confuse the traders who wants to take advantage of that so never follow such strategy anymore.Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Thanks
Stick with your Technical analysis if you are short term or just HODL if you are a long term but if you ask me short term traders lose a lot in long term so better to be a long term trader.
July 11, 2021, 01:22:06 PM
I remember that whenever there's a huge selling made, there's a whalebot that posts it on twitter to alert everyone that there's a whale that has dumped or transferred such amount to an exchange or cold storage. It's becoming a news and people who are too sensitive adds fear to it that it's about to be dumped and the market, traders are reacting on it and that's why it is leading to dump. I think it's still going to result the same thing even if it's being done by someone unknown and not made by a popular guy.
July 11, 2021, 04:23:27 AM
The whole whale alert is a joke,
I no longer call it a joke because I started believing that it is a malicious attempt at market manipulation. It is the same strategy as the pump and dump groups when they call their July 11, 2021, 02:05:25 AM
Bitcoin has its price today because it is a Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency. Miners have inputs to mine Bitcoin and have to spend it every day. It is different than Proof of Stake cryptocurrency, when you only have to buy coins, buy VPS and stake it on VPS.
Other things are know: no more Bitcoin than 21 Million.
If you follow Willywoo or Glassnode on Twitter, you will know that miners and hodlers are accumulating Bitcoin, and total active users on Bitcoin network is increasing, even during the dip. Remember because it is important, increase during the dip, not in bull time.
Other things are know: no more Bitcoin than 21 Million.
If you follow Willywoo or Glassnode on Twitter, you will know that miners and hodlers are accumulating Bitcoin, and total active users on Bitcoin network is increasing, even during the dip. Remember because it is important, increase during the dip, not in bull time.
July 10, 2021, 06:52:33 PM
Is there any data or history or any chances or correlated with a huge amount of Bitcoin volume is being transffered then we saw a huge dump too?
What's on my mind about this, not all lot of Bitcoins being transferred are guaranteed a huge pump or dump. Since we will not know if they will sell it or they bought it.
Another thing is there is some bot that observing inbound transfer to particular exchanges, so if a huge Bitcoin being transferred to exchange, there is still a chance that that Bitcoin will be sold there, but not totally 100% sure it will be sold.
What's on my mind about this, not all lot of Bitcoins being transferred are guaranteed a huge pump or dump. Since we will not know if they will sell it or they bought it.
Another thing is there is some bot that observing inbound transfer to particular exchanges, so if a huge Bitcoin being transferred to exchange, there is still a chance that that Bitcoin will be sold there, but not totally 100% sure it will be sold.
July 10, 2021, 06:41:09 AM
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Big transactions like that can have an effect on the market, but it all depends on where the transaction is really heading to. But that is nothing new at all, because most of the times they don’t have any serious effect on the market. If you’re following all those websites that gives alerts on whales, then you’re going to notice that the alerts will be coming in all the time, but you won’t see any serious.This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
It’s hard for any of those transactions to really make some serious changes on the market price of Bitcoin. The reason why is because Bitcoin is already very much stable, so it can’t be easily affected.
July 09, 2021, 06:51:12 PM
~Snipped
So I think it's more about who makes the move than the sum.
So I think it's more about who makes the move than the sum.
Great point. In today's markets, speculations move the market to an extent. While a transaction with a huge amount will draw concerns from traders and move the market in a direction depending on the news, transactions from known sources with controversial history will do even more impact in the market. Since there's no sure-fire way to know what's going to happen when such a transaction occurs, people usually stick to the norm: huge BTC/outflow outflow? Buy. If its the reverse, sell as fast as you can.
July 09, 2021, 03:40:57 PM
Why would such result to selling of Bitcoin which will lead to decrease in Bitcoin price, nobody know where the coins are sent to until it has been researched about, the bitcoin sent would have even gotten to its destination at the time.
Because people (or more likely trading bots) react to news and the news is usually triggered by half-true facts?
The whole whale alert is a joke, they have so little data on what's actually happening they have often claim huge whales withdrawing money hen in reality it was just one larger exchange moving coins from the hot wallet to a new cold wallet address never used before.
The best example:
https://www.coindesk.com/50-btc-just-moved-for-first-time-since-2009-but-it-doesnt-look-like-satoshi
40 coins move and the price drops 7%.
I don't know if a random 1000 BTC transaction would make the market drop right now but there are few that might do it depending on who does it. For example, the mt gox addresses, if those move a lot will think that finally the coins are getting distributed and thus a lot dumped. If some old addresses move coins, rumors about satoshi coming back, or some other whale that has finally got tired and plans to cash out. So I think it's more about who makes the move than the sum.
July 09, 2021, 03:18:25 PM
Yeah, we all understood the same thing so I guess OP is saying the same thing. After years of transactions over 1k people eventually realized first of all 1k is not enough to dump the price of bitcoin, you would need a lot more than that, 5 digits easily, secondly not all transactions are for selling, most of them are just moving the money around and you do not see drops of that in the end.
This is why nobody created a bot that checks the transactions, if you saw millions of dollars going into binance somehow you would buy, but at the end of the day the sell is there and there could have been some automatic trading bots that sell as soon as there is a huge move, which wouldn't work at all and we know that because people who have a lot of bitcoins like to move that around a lot and that is what these people are doing most of the time as well.
This is why nobody created a bot that checks the transactions, if you saw millions of dollars going into binance somehow you would buy, but at the end of the day the sell is there and there could have been some automatic trading bots that sell as soon as there is a huge move, which wouldn't work at all and we know that because people who have a lot of bitcoins like to move that around a lot and that is what these people are doing most of the time as well.
July 09, 2021, 07:59:04 AM
euhm.... i don't really get what you're asking...
Do you mean, if a transaction spending an unspent output with a value of 1000 BTC gets broadcasted, would the price dump before it was included into a block?
In that case, i don't think so... funds have been moved in the past, 1000 BTC is a lot, but i don't think anybody would change their strategy from HODLING to selling just because such a transaction was broadcasted. Those whale watching services pump a lot of information about high value transactions into the world regularly. Most of the time it's just an exchange or a whale moving funds between their own wallets... But who cares?
Do you mean, if a transaction spending an unspent output with a value of 1000 BTC gets broadcasted, would the price dump before it was included into a block?
In that case, i don't think so... funds have been moved in the past, 1000 BTC is a lot, but i don't think anybody would change their strategy from HODLING to selling just because such a transaction was broadcasted. Those whale watching services pump a lot of information about high value transactions into the world regularly. Most of the time it's just an exchange or a whale moving funds between their own wallets... But who cares?
Explains pretty much everything. I got what OP said. Since the transaction is huge one and there might be a possibility that 1000 BTC might be exchanged for Fiat soon or right after the transaction completed. Obviously at the current rate 1000BTC means a lot of money and it can scare the shit out of everyone. However, the mocacinno scenario is also true. The big volumes keep moving all the time and there is no possible way to predict whether it’s gonna be sell or conversion to another coin as well?
July 09, 2021, 07:31:38 AM
You can even see bitcoin transactions over 1k daily here. The transfer of large amounts of bitcoin is not always for reasons of wanting to sell it, it could be for reasons of security, privacy, liquidity, OTC trading, or others.
After all, compared to the daily trading volume that exceeds hundreds of thousands of bitcoin, 1k will not cause a price dump.
After all, compared to the daily trading volume that exceeds hundreds of thousands of bitcoin, 1k will not cause a price dump.
July 09, 2021, 07:02:32 AM
Why would such result to selling of Bitcoin which will lead to decrease in Bitcoin price, nobody know where the coins are sent to until it has been researched about, the bitcoin sent would have even gotten to its destination at the time. What can leads to selling is exchange inflow in which whales are moving bitcoin from wallets to exchanges, this will result to many people to be selling while many of the whales may sell, but exchange outflow will likely lead to buying.
July 09, 2021, 06:49:55 AM
euhm.... i don't really get what you're asking...
Do you mean, if a transaction spending an unspent output with a value of 1000 BTC gets broadcasted, would the price dump before it was included into a block?
In that case, i don't think so... funds have been moved in the past, 1000 BTC is a lot, but i don't think anybody would change their strategy from HODLING to selling just because such a transaction was broadcasted. Those whale watching services pump a lot of information about high value transactions into the world regularly. Most of the time it's just an exchange or a whale moving funds between their own wallets... But who cares?
Do you mean, if a transaction spending an unspent output with a value of 1000 BTC gets broadcasted, would the price dump before it was included into a block?
In that case, i don't think so... funds have been moved in the past, 1000 BTC is a lot, but i don't think anybody would change their strategy from HODLING to selling just because such a transaction was broadcasted. Those whale watching services pump a lot of information about high value transactions into the world regularly. Most of the time it's just an exchange or a whale moving funds between their own wallets... But who cares?
July 09, 2021, 06:43:12 AM
Hello,
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Thanks
Alice wants to send to an external wallet 1000 BTC .
This information is available for all before the transaction is validated by miners.
Can we anticipate a DUMP just by looking at the transaction block and before it comes validated ( or invalidated ) ??
Thanks
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